Two more polls

August 17th, 2014 at 7:45 pm by David Farrar

curiappa

Details of the two TV out tonight are at Curiablog. The weighted average of the polls is shown above.

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41 Responses to “Two more polls”

  1. flipper (4,230 comments) says:

    Clarification sought.

    Your average includes the latest Fairfax, TVone and TV3 pols????

    [DPF: Yes, and a bit of the last Roy Morgan]

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  2. MikeG (425 comments) says:

    What’s the realistic chance of Maori Party winning 3 electorate seats?

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  3. flipper (4,230 comments) says:

    Good Lord….

    Why not buy and display a New York Times Square neon sign to signal your bias???

    Well, no.

    The disgraceful, rudderless, Herald, just uses its own headline this evening:

    :”…. National down in new polls

    National has lost some support, according to two new polls released tonight ….

    And that is after failing to report anything of the Fairfax poll of 22.7% for Labour.

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  4. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    It’s getting messy, but my gut feeling is the Hagar’s book will ultimately help National.
    The million dollar question is what effect will Hagar’s work of fiction have on the polls.
    Neither of today’s polls show this yet.
    There may be an inititial flucuation but once the public see Hagar’s theft has Krim Dotcoms fingerprints all over it, it will push the undecided in the centre into John Key’s arms.
    Another question. If Hagar can’t release the stolen emails because his source wants to release them himself, is it because the source wants to release them in the Auckland Townhall on the 15th of September?

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  5. RF (1,454 comments) says:

    Dead Earnest. 8.03pm. My understanding is that our rat faced friend returned the information to his source. He was going to ask for it back so he could release it but the other party refused. Now he is going to release it in spite of the source saying no. If he’s given it back how can he release it.

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  6. daniel carter (34 comments) says:

    You might be right about Sept 15 but then you might not. Time will tell. But over on the standard they’re not doubting Hager’s reliability. Ok,that’s no surprise, this time he’s saying what they want to hear. But they’re buoyed by this blog from a Hager hater which is amazingly revealing – http://thestandard.org.nz/rob-gilchrist-on-nicky-hager/

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  7. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (895 comments) says:

    OK, not bad, still National riding high. Two more polls due – Rogue Morgan and Herald-Digipoll….We need to see what they show….I am sure the resident commie evils at TV1 and TV3 will definitely publish another poll which will be in the first week of September.

    Watch out for (a) Krim DotCon’s da bomb on 15th September (b) more mischief by the thief with emails.

    With the Greens announcing they will rob the successful to pay the poor to breed more, the choice is very clear. Even the Cotton lady has fallen for the socialist Greens by saying her money will help the poor. In fact it will help to buy more booze and subscribe to Rugby channel.

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  8. Tom Barker (148 comments) says:

    Playing the race card was an evident game-changer for ACT. They’ve hit the dizzying heights of 0.3%. The Great NZ Public clearly loves this Maori-bashing stuff.

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  9. Dead Earnest (160 comments) says:

    RF – Perhaps Hagar and the source (the private dectectives hired by Krim) and the man that is not involved at all (Krim), a having problems syncronising their stories.
    Also a possible conflict developing between the parties as the man not involved, wants some thunder left to announce to the incredulous unwashed in the Auckland townhall on the 15th of September.

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  10. daniel carter (34 comments) says:

    Ok so judging by the pure nasty venom in Sir Cullens Sidekicks post he must be yet another pseudonym for the sociopathic hate-filled cabal featured in a certain book. Honestly, you guys are so far removed from the normal, friendly Kiwis in the street that you just dont get how damaging your behaviour is – to your reputation. ‘Middle NZ’ is revolted by that type of hate speak.

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  11. MikeG (425 comments) says:

    Daniel carter – was Hager wrong in previous books? Seeds of Distrust had a negative effect on Labour just prior to an election…
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=3602195

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  12. Johnboy (17,007 comments) says:

    You’re not Richie’s co-pilot are you Daniel? :)

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  13. Lindsay Addie (1,595 comments) says:

    First re the Hager book, I haven’t read it and seriously doubt I ever will. It doesn’t really interest me at all.

    As far as the Hager vs Slater and Dotcom vs Slater arguments it’s pots and kettles arguing about who is the blackest. Afaik these three gentleman deserve each other. Political campaigns should be about the debating of ideas not this crap.

    The danger for Key and National is if the story drags on and lingers it could damage their campaign by taking them off message. This could give Cunliffe a chance to keep the focus off his own shortcomings. Though in order to do this he’ll need to do well against Key in the TV debates.

    As far as the polls go I don’t think any party has ever got over 50% in any MMP election and I’m not sure National will achieve it this time.

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  14. Short Shriveled and Slightly to the Left (786 comments) says:

    How cool would it be if that was actually Daniel Carter……..
    “Daniel Carter” is right. On Kiwiblog we need to stop the nastiness. Yes The Standard is just as vile bit the thing is no one really reads The Standard.

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  15. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    daniel carter (18 comments) says:
    August 17th, 2014 at 8:20 pm

    Sir Cullen’s sidekick is actually mentioned in the book as one of a few posters on Whaleoil who belong to the team and take part in the action conducting their dirty politics campaign. I can understand why he is upset – no one likes it when their dirty secrets are revealed for all to judge them by.

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  16. Judith (8,534 comments) says:

    I don’t think the polls really are a true enough indication. With the climate like it is at the moment they are swinging from hour to hour – especially for the middle group who seem unsettled, unable to make up their minds from one election to the next.

    With all these threats going backwards and forwards, I wish someone with the power would close down the campaigning. Allow only reports on each party’s manifesto – and allow the public the courtesy of making up their own minds based on the policies each are offering.

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  17. redqueen (583 comments) says:

    It’s good to see things going the way they are… :)

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  18. Nukuleka (348 comments) says:

    I read somewhere today (I’ve been reading so much online today that my mind is by now a mite befuddled) that National’s Campaign Opening in Manukau next weekend could be the clincher in all of this. John Key needs to use this event to really inject something vibrant for middle NZ in terms of policy and use it to move past these pointless and negative shenanigans that Hager et al have been drumming up. It is National that needs to be seen as the positive party, National that needs to lead the narrative from now on and not allow the media or opposition parties to divert the positive message. National needs to be proactive and not reactive over the next month.

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  19. redqueen (583 comments) says:

    Hmm…good to see things going well :) (albeit, next weeks polls will be interesting).

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  20. freemark (618 comments) says:

    The only way to get any real politics/policy in the public eye is to remove the DotCon & his hired henchlings from the equation.
    Although that does wipe out 90% of the Left…

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  21. RightNow (7,013 comments) says:

    Who briefed Cun’liffe on the election date?

    “Look, there’s polls all over the place. Most of them have us going up at the moment. I think that’s quite unusual. I’m not at all bothered by it. I know the one that matters is on the 30th of September,” says Labour leader David Cunliffe.

    http://tvnz.co.nz/vote-2014-news/dirty-start-campaign-hurts-labour-national-poll-6059069

    Who is this clown?

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  22. Nostradamus (3,433 comments) says:

    RightNow:

    You missed the other part:

    Most of them have us going up at the moment. I think that’s quite unusual

    Is Labour actually going up in the polls?

    Hilariously, even if they are, Cunliffe thinks that’s “quite unusual” – almost as if he’s expecting them to go down further!

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  23. Chuck Bird (4,928 comments) says:

    If the Conservatives were smart they would they would try to combine with NZF and have a 60 day sunset clause where they could split like Dotcon and Mana. As things stand NZF will probably make it but I think the Conservatives will be struggling.

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  24. Tinshed (170 comments) says:

    “Look, there’s polls all over the place. Most of them have us going up at the moment. I think that’s quite unusual. I’m not at all bothered by it. I know the one that matters is on the 30th of September,” says Labour leader David Cunliffe.

    It’s a typo, folks. In the video clip DC clearly says “20th September”. Seriously, let’s not get distracted by a misplaced keystroke.

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  25. Nostradamus (3,433 comments) says:

    Tinshed:

    Absolutely, let’s not get distracted by a misplaced keystroke, and focus on another aspect of what Cunliffe said.

    He said “Most of them have us going up at the moment” and – before taking a breath – he went on to say “I think that’s quite unusual”.

    Your thoughts?

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  26. bringbackdemocracy (428 comments) says:

    Conservatives have momentum

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  27. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (895 comments) says:

    Judith (8,154 comments) says:
    August 17th, 2014 at 8:34 pm
    daniel carter (18 comments) says:
    August 17th, 2014 at 8:20 pm

    Sir Cullen’s sidekick is actually mentioned in the book as one of a few posters on Whaleoil who belong to the team and take part in the action conducting their dirty politics campaign. I can understand why he is upset – no one likes it when their dirty secrets are revealed for all to judge them by.

    Aunty Judith – In fact I am banned by Whale Oil and cannot post anything there for the last six months….. So much for your conspiracy theory. Exactly like Hager’s book….But, if I am mentioned in the pile of crap, I am disappointed…can you post the extract for me because I am not going to spend my hard earned $35 to buy this rubbish…..

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  28. deadrightkev (534 comments) says:

    “If the Conservatives were smart they would they would try to combine with NZF and have a 60 day sunset clause where they could split like Dotcon and Mana.”

    Chuck, Colin Craig is smart and there is a bit of water to go under the bridge by 20th Sept. Craig does not want to be tainted or associated with the likes of low life like Winston Peters. If he did lie down with him that would make the Conservative party like every other easily bought party in government. The opposite of what he is trying to achieve.

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  29. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    Conservatives have momentum

    Yes, a lot of backwards momentum it seems.

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  30. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    Kevin is right. That would be a disaster for Colin and his party and Winston wouldn’t have a bar of it anyway. There is 34 days to go. A day is an eternity in politics, as we have seen this week. You just have to keep fighting to the end. Politics is also a long game, not a short one – it is a war, not a battle. I have never thought the Conservatives would make it, and still don’t. But 34 days is a very long time, and Act (and I guess the Conservatives if I’m being nice) just need to keep cool and stay on message.

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  31. deadrightkev (534 comments) says:

    The Conservatives are slowly reaping the reward of a resourceful intelligent campaign strategy with over a month to go and seven thousand member supporters. Against a biased media all the way is no mean feat, but they are not doing anything special.

    Act, as much as I would like to see otherwise have reaped the rewards of amateur governance, a woeful campaign strategy and the stunning inability to understand what “toxic” means and what is required to dissolve it in the eyes of the voter. It could have been so different for a rebranded Act a year ago.

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  32. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    You still bitter for having your membership declined Kevin?

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  33. NK (1,257 comments) says:

    Kevin, the Conservatives are not reaping anything. The Curia tracking poll has them at less support than the last election. The same goes for Act. That will change by September 20 as it has for all MMP elections, but it has to be crisis meetings now for the Conservatives, without a seat and 60,000 votes shy of the 5% threshold and with Winston out-manoeuvring them. Maybe it’s time for another cool $1million from Colin Craig – hell, anyone can by their way into power. Right?

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  34. Nookin (3,468 comments) says:

    Sir Cullen, your banning is clearly a devious facade designed by you and Slater to ensure deniability should the truth come out. You are undone, man. It is over. Nicky has you by the cort and shurlies.

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  35. Southern Raider (1,831 comments) says:

    Anyone notice the irony of the greens rich tax kicking in just above what all their MPs earn?

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  36. lolitasbrother (751 comments) says:

    About 7% of votes out there for NZ First and NZ Conservative.
    Many of these votes will be clawed back at the polling booth, leaving the NZ Nat Government a good solid majority.

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  37. J Bloggs (250 comments) says:

    Southern raider: I wouldn’t call it ironic, I’d call it cynical….

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  38. thePeoplesFlag (257 comments) says:

    IMP will poll 6+% and ensure a centre-left government.

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  39. Slipster (183 comments) says:

    daniel carter (18 comments) says:
    August 17th, 2014 at 8:13 pm
    “[…] over on the standard […] they’re buoyed by this blog from a Hager hater which is amazingly revealing [crap link removed]”
    —–
    Jeez, Daniel. We all know just what to expect from the standard, but… that kind of sugary/syrupy nonsense? And you try to pass it on with a (presumably) straight face?!? Shame on you (if you have any).

    It has all the hallmarks of a poorly written “consolation” type fantasy. What kind of audience it might be targeting is hard to imagine, the standard’s one presumably. But, to try it on a sensible audience – forget it.

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  40. deadrightkev (534 comments) says:

    “You still bitter for having your membership declined Kevin?”

    Not a chance Nick. My conscience is clear and I worked hard for Act. The party deserted several thousand members on its way to the bottom.

    Results and current polling records that those in the Act brains trust are probably well meaning but have no idea how to build a united political organisation to attract quality candidates who can sell great policy. No disrespect to the current well meaning crop but there are several top shelf people who I know would be candidates, but declined because of incompetence and the wrong people pulling strings inside. The board has allowed the party to be Nationals plaything. I don’t think genuine members and donors want the Act party to be a bolt on to National, nor do they understand their party’s potential is being restricted internally, probably deliberately.

    I have come to the conclusion that National don’t want the party to be anything more than one or two MPs, therefore it wont be as long as the current apparatchiks are still employed. I wish Jamie Whyte all the best in his sincere efforts but the polling shows the damage had been well and truly done long before he arrived. If he is lucky enough to sneak into parliament I think he is smart enough to know what to do next.

    In contrast, in just one term the Conservative party has left Act and several other minor parties polling behind and picked up seven thousand member supporters. While Colin Craig is not text book spin doctor material and fair game to the likes of Slater and other cheap shot merchants, he at least understands how to unite a group of genuine people toward a common goal honestly without manipulating the media to paint a picture that does not exist.

    I remember a certain blogger trumpeting that his blog was awesome for democracy because it kept the media and politicians honest. I don’t think people realised that everyone was actually being played for fools, media included. That is not productive in my view, nor is it in the best interests of NZ.

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  41. bringbackdemocracy (428 comments) says:

    The Conservatives are polling higher today than they were before the last election.
    All polling organisations underestimated the level of support for the Conservatives in 2011.

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