Caucus in Charge

Stuff reports:

Carnage. After a seven-hour crisis meeting with his caucus, Labour leader David emerged bloodied and weakened. The caucus is now firmly in charge after foisting its choice of Whips on the leader, including Chris Hipkins.

Whips are supposed to be the leader's loyal lieutenants, their eyes and ears in the caucus. Hipkins is a known enemy who was demoted in one of Cunliffe's first acts as leader.

The MPs also imposed their will on Cunliffe over the timing of the next leadership vote, outmanouvering him over his plan to steamroll the vote through before Christmas.

It was a Mexican stand off. Cunliffe wants a leadership ballot but won't resign. Hence he effectively is demanding the caucus sack him, so the ballot is triggered. And they will sack him – but on their timetable. They have until 20 December to pass a confidence vote.

3 News reported:

By saying he wants a no confidence vote, Mr Cunliffe is getting in ahead of his own enemy MPs doing it. There are 32 Labour MPs. A no confidence motion requires 20 MPs, which is 60 percent of the caucus plus one MP, as the rules require.

The “anyone but Cunliffe” camp is made up of 19 MPs, which is 59 percent. They are almost there.

3 News has got this wrong. The caucus don't need 60% to sack him. Cunliffe needs 60% to survive. Caucus only needs 40% to sack him. Just 12 of the 32 MPs can sack him.

Camp Cunliffe has just seven MPs, or 22 percent, and the views of five MPs are unknown. Just one needs to be anti-Cunliffe and he is gone.

The leader has only 22% support in his own caucus. Unheard of. When they do sack him, imagine if he wins the members and unions vote. He'll them preside over a caucus where he can trust just one in five.

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