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August 9, 2016 10:00am by David Farrar

Latest poll

I’ve blogged the latest Newshub Reid Research at Curia. It projects NZ First would hold the balance of power.

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Comments (53)

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cmm

The mid-term polls seem very volatile and seem to be just a way people can “send a message”.

Do they have any resemblance to how people would actually vote?

Are they worth anything?
17 0
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August 9, 2016 10:11am
Manolo

Will the venal Peters sell his well-soaked soul to a Labour-Green coalition? Will he?
11 2
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August 9, 2016 10:15am
marquess

Nice to see act’s Epsom subsidy becoming worthless. It’d be good for them to completely drop it and compete on their own 🙂
1 26
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August 9, 2016 10:19am
Griff

Whinny first plus the greens .
rofl
Peters has no position to negotiate from as he would not be happy with the greens in government .
Chuck him a make work portfolio and let him swan around as minster for pointless rubbish like racing or some such and he will sign up to a national government or if he holds out for more let him go with labour plus the greens and buy popcorn futures.
19 2
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August 9, 2016 10:22am
wiseowl

Hey Griff .
Racing is hugely important and has been treated poorly by National.
2 9
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August 9, 2016 10:24am
Hugh Pavletich

NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT HAMMERED IN POLL BECAUSE OF HOUSING FAILURE …

Poll: John Key could lose grip on power | Politics | Newshub

http://www.newshub.co.nz/politics/poll-john-key-could-lose-grip-on-power-2016080815#axzz4GikNBoNl

John Key and National could be out of office after a drop in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, which shows the Labour-Greens bloc is closing the gap.

The Newshub-Reid Research poll shows National on 45.1 percent – a drop of 1.9 percent.

And the Labour-Green marriage has taken almost all of that – jumping 1.8 percent up to 44.2 percent.

But neither side has the numbers to govern – meaning Winston Peters would once again be kingmaker, with New Zealand First on 8.1 percent (up 0.4 percent). … view & read more via hyperlink above …

National and Labour-Greens neck and neck in poll | Fairfax NZ … Stuff.co.nz

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/82951585/national-and-labourgreens-neck-and-neck-in-poll

… late May poll …

Newshub poll: Key’s popularity plummets to lowest level | Politics | Newshub#axzz4GicOIRlk

http://www.newshub.co.nz/politics/newshub-poll-keys-popularity-plummets-to-lowest-level-2016052414#axzz4GicOIRlk

WHY AREN’T WE LEARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES … CHECK THIS OUT ! …

Low Supply Lifts Housing Lot Prices To a Record ($US45,000) – WSJ
… google search title if blocked …

http://www.wsj.com/articles/low-supply-lifts-housing-lot-prices-to-a-record-1470442821
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August 9, 2016 10:26am
burt

Rogue Poll !
11 2
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August 9, 2016 10:26am
burt

Griff

Chuck him a make work portfolio and let him swan around as minster for pointless rubbish like racing

Without a Labour government to run cover for him he’ll struggle to pretend he never got $100,000 donations he didn’t declare.
9 0
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August 9, 2016 10:28am
burt

Dear Winston

Have you any intention of ever paying back the $158,000 you ( allegedly ) stole in 2005 ?
24 0
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August 9, 2016 10:29am
Hugh Pavletich

Few new Auckland houses likely to be under $800K under Unitary Plan (NZ Labour Party) | Stuff.co.nz

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/82670208/few-new-auckland-houses-likely-to-be-under-800k-under-unitary-plan

Most homes built under Auckland’s new Unitary Plan would be out of reach of many buyers, Auckland Council research suggests.

Only 15 per cent of new homes would be priced under $800,000, and fewer than 2 per cent would be under $600,000.

That meant a chance for creating affordable housing for families had been lost, Labour said. … read more via hyperlink above …
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August 9, 2016 10:31am
stigie

Fuck off Burt, i did not steal 158k…..I gave it away..?
10 0
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August 9, 2016 10:33am
marquess

Only 15 per cent of new homes would be priced under $800,000, and fewer than 2 per cent would be under $600,000.

Because, naturally, the prices for homes that already exist today are completely static, and won’t be affected by massive new supply.
8 1
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August 9, 2016 10:34am
Jim

“let him go with labour plus the greens and buy popcorn futures”

That might actually be preferable to him bringing a debacle to National. One term of a Labour – Green – Winston shitshow would be enough to send them all to the margins for another decade.
13 0
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August 9, 2016 10:35am
Hugh Pavletich

WAKE UP PRIME MINISTER JOHN KEY ! …

What Allister Heath had to say in the UK Telegraph October last year …

The real ticking time bomb for the Tories is home ownership – Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11917816/The-real-ticking-time-bomb-for-the-Tories-is-home-ownership.html

The PM’s vision of an aspirational meritocracy will come to nothing if there’s nowhere to live … read more via hyperlink above …

Theresa Mays first speech as British Prime Minister 13 July BBC … A CRACKER ! …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDyZ8trge2E
1 18
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August 9, 2016 10:40am
Hugh Pavletich

Big changes in line for the Auckland Council’s Unitary Plan … TVNZ

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/big-changes-in-line-auckland-councils-unitary-plan

Auckland Council staff have given a thumbs up to the bulk of the proposed masterplan for the city’s future planning, but they’ve also rejected a raft of suggestions, including scrapping minimum homes sizes. … view and read more via hyperlink above …
0 12
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August 9, 2016 10:54am
emmess

Whinny first plus the greens .
rofl

Whilst Winston and the Greens have never been compatible bedfellows.
I would think how recently the main fault line in politics across the western world has become globalist versus nationalist and how the Greens and NZ First are the very embodiment of those positions in New Zealand these days, what was always highly unlikely would be now nigh on impossible.
3 0
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August 9, 2016 10:55am
Adolf Fiinkensein

Hugh Pavlovich

Why don’t you go away?
24 1
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August 9, 2016 10:56am
Chuck Bird

It looks very likely Winston will hold the balance of power. National had a policy of getting rid of the Maori seats until John Key came along. That should be no problem for National one would think. Another reason I will vote for Winston is that he is that he supports direct democracy on moral issues like smacking and parental notification when underage girls are getting abortions.
4 8
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August 9, 2016 10:56am
Liberty

The idea that the coalition of losers could form
A government is a joke. Simply because
They hate each other.
The unions will demand there stooge is leader.
Peters won’t want to be 2nd or 3rd fiddle.
The Green numpties will also want to be leader.
And they won’t want to be shafted again by labour.
It will all end in tears. How sad never mind.
14 1
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August 9, 2016 11:03am
dime

Dime may vote winston to punish JK.
3 13
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August 9, 2016 11:13am
Hugh Pavletich

Liberty … Governments lose elections … Oppositions don’t win them.
3 2
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August 9, 2016 11:17am
G152

If no-one else has noticed the Peters Party
has sold out to Liebor.
They sit with them, vote with them and agree with them.
7 0
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August 9, 2016 11:36am
WineOh

Who honestly believes that Winston wouldn’t happily roll over & join a Labour & Green led coalition if it meant a sweet ministerial position to bump up his retirement fund in his dotage. He is hardly the most consistent man on the block when it comes to moral high ground and keeping his promises.
14 0
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August 9, 2016 11:39am
Rachael Membery

Isn’t 1.9, margin of error stuff?
9 0
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August 9, 2016 11:46am
BeaB

Chuck Bird
Interesting how both your key issues are mainly to do with parenting – and perhaps therefore mainly to do with females. It’s that kind of narrow, moralistic approach that has almost destroyed the Republicans in the USA. Perhaps it may help Winnie combust too if his supporters are a bunch of grumpy old men who want to interfere in how the rest of us live our lives.
4 1
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August 9, 2016 11:49am
Liberty

Hugh
“Governments lose elections … Oppositions don’t win them”
Unless they cheat. As labour did in 2005
7 1
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August 9, 2016 11:50am
BeaB

This morning on Radio NZ we have had pleas for councils to stop people illegally dumping and, from Andrew Little, for the Government to do something about house prices.
We hear a daily litany of all the things other people should do to stop us doing things they don’t like.
Surely both of these are in our own hands.
We stop dumping our rubbish illegally.
We refuse to pay high prices for houses.
We refuse to be paid those high prices.
Problem solved by People Power!
5 0
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August 9, 2016 11:53am
Viking2

They are going down if they keep this behavoir up.

If Uber doesn’t start following the law one option is to take all its drivers off the road, Transport Minister Simon Bridges says.

“The government has zero tolerance for illegal behaviour.”

There was no assurance Uber is safe for passengers and drivers needed to comply with the law, “not mock” it, Bridges said. If they don’t, one option is for the company to be banned.

While he wouldn’t say whether he would feel safe if himself or his family used an Uber – Bridges said he would discourage Kiwis from using Uber if a driver didn’t have a passenger endorsement.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/82971276/uber-could-be-banned-if-it-doesnt-comply-with-the-law-transport-minister

Change the fucking stupid law Simple Simon and stop pandering to the rip off industry. The only reason that safety was an issue was because of the drivers employed and the inability of taxi companies to monitor their behavoir.
3 0
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August 9, 2016 12:08pm
Chuck Bird

Perhaps it may help Winnie combust too if his supporters are a bunch of grumpy old men who want to interfere in how the rest of us live our lives.

BeaB, It is others who want to interfere how parents live their lives. One of the strongest supporters of parental notification is a woman.

Interesting how both your key issues are mainly to do with parenting – and perhaps therefore mainly to do with females.

So do you think parenting is mainly to do with females?
1 1
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August 9, 2016 12:15pm
deadrightkev

Imagine NZ with a visionary prime minister and matching finance minister.

Imagine Trump winning and the world ridding itself of the progressive losers that have darkened our doors for so long.

Today is a good day to be optimistic and hopeful.
4 8
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August 9, 2016 12:37pm
mikenmild

Today is a good day to be optimistic and hopeful

Or deluded and bewildered.

On the plus side, we can be sure that this is a rogue poll, as it shows the Conservatives at 0.0%
3 5
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August 9, 2016 12:47pm
DJP6-25

I wonder what NZFs poll numbers would look like with Shane Jones as a list MP, and then leader?
3 0
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August 9, 2016 1:00pm
Chuck Bird

@DJP6-25

Imagine if he got Alan Duff on as well.
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August 9, 2016 1:32pm
BeaB

Sadly, yes. Parenting is mainly up to women. Which is not to say there aren’t lots of great dads.

I am interested to know why the mothers who demand to be told about their daughter’s abortion haven’t built the kind of relationship over the years which would guarantee their daughters would confide in them and share their most pressing problems. It is sad when a girl turns to a school counsellor rather than her mother and there is usually a very good reason in my experience. Thank goodness we have such caring and supportive school staff to help girls in times of crisis.

Some of the things they hear would make your hair stand on end, Chuck Bird. If you still have any.
1 1
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August 9, 2016 1:38pm
starboard

Im with Dime. I will vote WP to punish JK. JK doesn’t listen so JK shall be punished.
4 6
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August 9, 2016 2:06pm
artemisia

Do we have a ‘shy tory’ factor in NZ?
3 0
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August 9, 2016 2:32pm
Jim

“Im with Dime. I will vote WP to punish JK. JK doesn’t listen so JK shall be punished.”

You may be on to something. Vote WP, sell NZD before the election, buy it back 6 months later at a 50% discount 🙂
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August 9, 2016 3:43pm
DJP6-25

Chuck Bird 1:32 pm. Thanks Chuck, I hadn’t even thought of that scenario. I guess Alan Duff would be more active than Shane Jones. My guess is their vote would dip initially, then find a new equilibrium. Pity we don’t have someone like Nigel Farage.
1 0
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August 9, 2016 4:35pm
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

Liberty (631 comments) says:
August 9th, 2016 at 11:03 am

When push comes to shove, Winnie will join with Labour and keep the Green nutters out of power. Greens have nowhere else to go, so they will sit at cross benches and support Labour-NZ First government for few policy bones. So never count Winston’s numbers for National.
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August 9, 2016 4:42pm
noskire

The shifts were all within the margin of error – hardly a massive swing against National.
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August 9, 2016 5:08pm
Hugh Pavletich

In political terms John Key is a gone-burger.

He has no credibility whatsoever now with the media.

And the pathetic creature Key knows it. Just watch the body language with his media encounters. Its just so obvious.
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August 9, 2016 5:28pm
Chuck Bird

I am interested to know why the mothers who demand to be told about their daughter’s abortion haven’t built the kind of relationship over the years which would guarantee their daughters would confide in them and share their most pressing problems.

BeaB, the link below give the story of the underage girl who had an abortion. Both her parents are on the show along with the daughter. After the botched abortion she attempted suicide and can no longer have children. We hear the militant feminist go on about informed consent when it comes to sex. How about informed consent when it comes to abortion. The story starts just over a minute into the video.

http://www.maoritelevision.com/tv/shows/native-affairs/S10E021/native-affairs?utm_source=brightcove&utm_medium=button&utm_campaign=share%20this%20video

Some of the things they hear would make your hair stand on end, Chuck Bird. If you still have any.

I see you are prepared to judge parents you know nothing about. Well I think Hillary bought up her children better than your mother brought up you. You should show respect for your elders.
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August 9, 2016 5:29pm
Griff

Chuck I know of cases with children getting the living snot kicked out of them when parents found out about underage pregnancy as well as PI girls being sent beck to the islands for a life of perpetual slavery.

Often the only person in the girls life who will support her no matter her choice is the school Councillor .
This can and does work both ways with some young girls choosing to have the resulting child against the wishers of her family.
All Councillors are professionals with a system of supervision along with checks and balances to insure they preform as such and most that I know personally are actually against abortion.
In their professional capacity it is the rights and needs of the child that takes overriding precedence rather than their personal beliefs.
This is not the case with many parents in particular both PI and Muslim and the result of an unwanted pregnancy in both cultures can be horrific up to and including the death of the girl .

Your simple ideas about such things ignores the reality out there for many young girls struggling with pregnancy .
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August 9, 2016 5:49pm
Chuck Bird

Griff, did you watch the video?
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August 9, 2016 6:07pm
Rachael Membery

Griff (13,859 comments) says:

August 9th, 2016 at 5:49 pm

The ‘other party’ to any pregnancy should also be cognisant of that likelihood if pregnancy ensues. Bet they didn’t though.
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August 9, 2016 6:41pm
Hugh Pavletich

The Fair Go Culture …

The inequality issue … an Aussie perspective (sorting out the urban land racket might be a good place to start … Pavletich comment on thread) …

Australia: no longer land of the fair go – MacroBusiness Australia

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/08/australia-no-longer-land-of-the-fair-go/

Cross-posted from The Conversation:

Australians often pride themselves on living in the land of the “fair go”. However, the available evidence shows the distribution of wealth in this country is no more egalitarian than the average for the OECD countries.

In fact, depending on how wealth is measured, Australia may have above average inequality in wealth distribution.

Most think of inequality in terms of income differences between rich and poor people. But even more fundamental are the differences in the value of the assets that people own. It is the presence (or absence) of this accumulated wealth that determines people’s social position and their opportunities in life; who gets what depends substantially on who owns what. … read more via hyperlink above …
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August 9, 2016 7:16pm
Captain Mainwaring

Hugh, when I first started reading your comments I figured you were quite clued-up on property stuff.
Now when I see your built-in bias on display I think you are a supercilious twit.
2 0
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August 9, 2016 9:28pm
Aliog

Hugh has always been a boring and pompous fuckwit, but now he’s jumped the shark. Perhaps he should team with our other resident ‘experts’ like EAD ?
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August 9, 2016 9:44pm
Liberty

Sir Cullen’s Sidekick
“So never count Winston’s numbers for National”

The last person I want anywhere near National .
Is Winston.
His party is nothing more than a pack of redneck racist.
with a toxic leader.
I would prefer National to lose. Than sell its soul to that
odious little man.
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August 9, 2016 11:03pm
Chuck Bird

His party is nothing more than a pack of redneck racist.
with a toxic leader.

How many of the anti Maori racist on Kiwiblog are Winston of NZF supporters? I would not think many.

Some would be opposed to the high level of immigration and also some like me would be opposed to Muslim immigration. Does that make them racist?
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August 10, 2016 8:00am
deadrightkev

Hugh P

The KB sycophants will go on licking Keys arse. They have no clue. He is proven to be what he is – a prize progressive failure. They will turn on him soon and start loving Simon Bridges or Steven Joyce some other brainless socialist waiting in the queue.

The next white knight to save National will never deliver either. A hopeless party with plastic politicians.
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August 10, 2016 11:04am
tom hunter

deadrightkev (2,364 comments) says:
August 9th, 2016 at 12:37 pm
Imagine NZ with a visionary prime minister and matching finance minister.

Imagine Trump winning …

Awwwwww……

Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world…

You may say I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
I hope someday you’ll join us
And the world will live as one
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August 10, 2016 11:21am
deadrightkev

Liberty

“I would prefer National to lose. Than sell its soul to that
odious little man.”

National has no soul anyway. It is as party of plodders that do not know what they stand for. Winston at least stands for Winston. Not that I would vote for him either.

tom hunter

Awww thanks 😀
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August 10, 2016 12:55pm

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