Kiwiblog

Back in February, Mark Gosche announced he would step down as MP for Maungakiekie, but seek a List only nomination. I blogged at the time:

At this stage he says he will seek to go List only – but do not be surprised if, like Tim Barnett, he does not stand at all eventually.

This was confirmed yesterday with his news that he is quitting Parliament totally.

Gosche has had two personal tragedies – a seriously ill wife needing intensive care and the death of a son. I am sure everyone is wishing him well with his future challenges.

He was once talked about as a future Labour Party leader – not a helpful tag, but an indication of the respect he had. He was NZ’s first Pacific Island Cabinet Minister.

Tim Donoghue at the Dom Post has got hold of Labour’s list rankings for the Northern Region. Somewhat disappointing to see they are once again protecting all their incumbent MPs by ranking them ahead of any newcomers, no matter how talented.  But even that may see some List MPs fall away.

The average of the polls have Labour getting 42 seats. They currently have 31 electorate seats and it is not unreasonable to assume they will lose two Maori seats and five general electorate seats so assume 24 electorates and 18 List MPs. Where I note likely to win a seat, this is not a prediction or a concession. It is an assumption for this scenario.  Things can and will change in a campaign.

Now let us look at their Northern List:

1. 1. Helen Clark* -likely to win seat
2. 2. Phil Goff* – likely to win seat
3. 3. Chris Carter* – likely to win seat
4. 4. David Cunliffe* – likely to win seat
5. 5. Shane Jones* – 1st list spot
6. 6. Judith Tizard* – likely to win seat
7. 7. Mark Gosche* – 2nd list spot
8. 8. Lynne Pillay* – likely to win seat
9. 9. Ashraf Choudhary* – 3rd list spot
10. 10. Darien Fenton* – 4th list spot
11. 11. Dave Hereora* – 5th list spot
12. 12. Louisa Wall* – 6th list spot
13. 13. Sua William Sio – likely to win seat
14. 14. Raymond Huo – 7th list spot
15. 15. Phil Twyford – 8th list spot
16. 16. Hamish McCracken – 9th list spot
17. 17. Carmel Sepulone – 10th list spot
18. 18. Kelvin Davis – 11th list spot
19. 19. Michael Wood – 12th list spot
20. 20. Kate Sutton – 13th list spot

Now how many winnable list places would there be in Northern Region? Well generally their population is 1/3 to 1/4 of the total country, so if it follows population, one might expect four to six List MPs getting through from Northern.

So at this stage (and Labour has yet to combine the regional lists into a national list) Jones, Gosche, Choudary and Fenton look fairly safe, while Heroera and Wall are marginal, and the chances of a non MP making it in is remote on current numbers.

Choudary, Fenton and Heroera are not exactly high flyers. Despite Clark’s talk of more new blood needed, candidates like Phil Twyford look unlikely to make it in.

Mark Gosche has announced he will not restand in Maungakiekie.  At this stage he says he will seek to go List only – but do not be surprised if, like Tim Barnett, he does not stand at all eventually.

National would have struggled to win Maungakiekie off Gosche.  However with his retirement, it should now be regarded as a winnable seat.

Most focus has been on the party vote polling, and what that means for overall seats in Parliament. But people should consider what a 20% gap may mean in terms of electorates held, if the electorate vote follows similiar trends. Labour currently has 31 electorate seats (including Mangere) and could be reduced to low 20s.