Kiwiblog

Starting at the top, the three northern seats of East Coast Bays, North Shore and Northcote were solid blue. Their party votes went up 9%, 4% and 11% respectively.  In East Coast Bays almost three times as many people voted National as Labour. These seats now are counters to the South Auckland seats.

The personal majorities were 12,800, 13,200 and 8,500 respectively. Northcote was held by Labour up until 2005 and Jonathan Coleman this tme incraesed his majority by around 6,000.

Out west we saw the near impossible – National won the party vote in all three West Auckland seats. Tim Groser worked hard on New Lynn to lift the party vote by 10% to 41%, with Labour dropping 12%. Te Atatu went from 32% to 42% and Waitakere from 33% to 42%. Listing the vote 10% in Westieville was great work.

Paula Bennett’s win in Waitakere is all the more remarkable because of the new boundaries. They had her 6,000 votes behind in 2005 and she won by 900. Groser reduced Cunliffe to 3,500 from a paper majority of 12,000 – also one of the biggest swings! Finally Chris Carter dropped to 4,500 from 7,500.

In central Auckland we have Auckland Central. National lost the party vote by 12% in 2005 and won it by 5% this time. This seat has been held by Labour since 1919 (apart from once going further left to the Alliance), making Nikki Kaye’s 1,100 vote victory all the more remarkable.

Mt Roskill also just went to National on the party vote, and Goff’s majority went from 9,400 to 5,500 – still very safe. His leadership predecessor in Mt Albert won the party vote by 6%, and had a slight dent in the electorate majority from 11,400 to 8,700.

Epsom went from 58% to 63% for National on the party vote, with Labour falling to under 20%. Rodney Hide drives his majority from 2,000 to a staggering near 12,000. They liked his dancing. Tamaki also remains solid blue with another 60:20 split on the party vote. Allan Peachey saw his majority go from 10,300 to over 15,000.

Maungakiekie was another big mover. The party vote went from a 13% deficit to 45 lead. And Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga scored an 1,800 majority from an close to 7,000 majority to Labour previously. Sam is one of the most well liked guys in the National Party, and had one of the biggest teams in recent memory on the hustings. He had between 10 and 25 people door knocking both days every weekend.

Out East we have Pakuranga which was no surprise. It is another close to 60:20 seat. Maurice is very popular locally and scored a 13,000 majority.

Botany. This brand new seat got the second highest party vote in Auckland for National – 62%. Pansy Wong also got a 10,000 majority. ACT’s Kenneth Wang was in third place but got a respectable 4,500 votes.

Papakura. The party vote went 52% to 28% for National, and Judith Collins took a 6,800 paper majority and turned it into a 9,700 real one.

Finally we have the three M seats in South Auckland. Mangere, Manurewa and Manukau East. Mangere saw Labour’s party vote go from 73% to 61%. In Manurewa it was from 61% to 50% and Manukau East from 65% to 57%. But turnout was down also and in absolute terms, Labour went from 55,000 votes to 38,000 over the three seats.

Thankfully Labour’s Sio beat Taito Phillip Field by 11,300 to 4,700

Note the above comparisons are all to 2005 results adjusted to new boundaries. Also a more formal analysis will be done when we have final results.

Tags: Allan Peachey, Auckland Central, Botany, Chris Carter, David Cunliffe, East Coast Bays, Election 2008, Epsom, Jonathan Coleman, Judith Collins, Kenneth Wang, Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa, Maungakiekie, Maurice Williamson, Mt Albert, Mt Roskill, New Lynn, Nikki Kaye, North Shore, Northcote, Pakuranga, Pansy Wong, Papakura, Paula Bennett, Peseta Sam Lotu-liga, Phil Goff, Rodney Hide, Su'a William Sio, Taito Philip Field, Tamaki, Te Atatu, Tim Groser, Waitakere

The NZ Herald looks at Auckland Central, Epsom and Maungakiekie.

Auckland Central:

That is not troubling the motivated Kaye, who is running a vigorous and old-fashioned door-knocking campaign. National Party sources say that although raised in conservative Epsom and Kohimarama, she is more socially liberal and environmentally active than most in the party.

On the other hand, Tizard has more than 40 years of family political history and nous to draw on. Name recognition, strong links with the gay and other communities and being a junior minister in transport and the arts help. Then again, she has received criticism for her now-defunct role of Minister for Auckland Issues.

Epsom:

Worth, who became a list MP, is standing again, but says he is firmly concentrating on increasing National’s party vote of 58.5 per cent in 2005 to 70 per cent.

“How people decide to cast their constituency vote is an issue for them.”

With Act polling well below the 5 per cent threshold to gain list seats in Parliament, National needs Hide to win Epsom and hopefully provide two or more Act MPs for a National-led coalition.

Maungakiekie:

Labour is replacing one unionist (Mr Gosche is a former national secretary of the Service and Food Workers Union) with another, Carol Beaumont, secretary of the Council of Trade Unions. …

Samoan-born Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga is the National candidate. Not only is he among a new bunch of young, highly educated 28-to-45-year-olds offering new blood and values for National, but he is also part of an attempt to boost the party’s ethnic diversity.

Tags: Auckland Central, Carol Beaumont, Epsom, Judith Tizard, Maungakiekie, Nikki Kaye, NZ Herald, Pesata Sam Lotu-liga, Richard Worth, Rodney Hide

Delighted to report that Sam Lotu-liga has won on the first ballot the Maungakiekie nomination for National. With Mark Gosche retiring as Electorate MP, Sam has an enhanced chance to win the seat.

Sam has an MBA from Cambridge, is a very personable guy, and has a great future ahead of him.

Also congrats to Ravi Musuku who has recently been selected for National in Mt Albert. National only has selections left in Dunedin North, Hutt South, Mangere, Manukau East, Manurewa, Mt Roskill and of course Selwyn.

I am missing candidate information for Labour for Clutha-Southland, Tamaki and Waikato. Have they been selected yet? The candidates list has been updated.

Finally National also announced today their new General Manager is Mark Oldershaw. Mark is currently CEO of the Hotel Council of NZ and a former General Manager of World of Wearable Art Ltd.

Tags: candidates, Election 2008, Mark Oldershaw, Maungakiekie, Mt Albert, National, Ravi Musuku, Sam Lotu-liga

Mark Gosche has announced he will not restand in Maungakiekie.  At this stage he says he will seek to go List only – but do not be surprised if, like Tim Barnett, he does not stand at all eventually.

National would have struggled to win Maungakiekie off Gosche.  However with his retirement, it should now be regarded as a winnable seat.

Most focus has been on the party vote polling, and what that means for overall seats in Parliament. But people should consider what a 20% gap may mean in terms of electorates held, if the electorate vote follows similiar trends. Labour currently has 31 electorate seats (including Mangere) and could be reduced to low 20s.

Tags: Labour, Mark Gosche, Maungakiekie