Jim Sutton holds Aoraki with a majority of 6,453 which should normally be as safe as houses.
However he is trailing National’s Jo Goodhew by 6% according to a Timaru Herald poll. And after probing undecided voters the margin expands to 11% which is landslide territory.
The combination of a very effective and hard-working candidate, and an incumbent MP who is seen to have last touch, can overturn the biggest majority.
Very surprised to see that 30% of respondents named the motorcade incident (which did happen locally) as a factor in how they would vote. As I have said before it is not so much the speeding itself, but the trying to sheet all the blame onto the Police drivers.