And Labour is in the lead. Unless specials change things, it’s another three years of Helengrad. But Labour need five parties supporting it to govern which may not be that stable.
And the gap keeps shrinking. It is possible Labour may get more votes than National which means they will hold onto office. But it may need to wait for specials.
I’ve looked at St Lague formula and National is in danger of losing a seat to Labour which would tie it. However Progressive may lose a seat also. Other factor is Greens normally pick up a lot on specials.
And still shrinking. CR has 62 seats and CL 60 seats. This could be hung. If Labour get more votes they have won. If they do not, then they may still win, but may be hung.
As I said the lead will shrink, and is down to 5.5%. What will it stop at?
Okay things are looking better, even with only 200,000 votes counted as National is now 9.7% ahead. This definitely will shirnk but it is a useful lead to have at this stage.
145,000 votes counted and National ahead 47.3% to 37.3%. This doesn’t give me a lot of confidence as based on past elections that may shrink to only a 1% or so lead which isn’t enough. But still too early to speculate, even though I am!!
Okay with 6,000 votes in so far the results are:
Only 2,994,000 votes to go
I do warn people not to take much from party vote results until after 8.00 pm as the early booths are small rural ones and are not representative. Sometimes not even until 8.30 pm does it start to give a good impression.