Investing on Specials

I am doing well to date on iPredict. Of 11 stocks, I have made money on 10 on them, totalling a net gain of just over $1,000. I lost money on Benson.Pope contesting the election, but have made money on:

  1. Goff to be Leader
  2. Cunliffe not to be Leader
  3. Maori Party to have an agreement with National (not yet closed)
  4. Peters not to be an MP
  5. Bridges to win Tauranga
  6. John Key to be PM
  7. Peters not to resign or be sacked
  8. Obama to be President
  9. Short selling President not to be Obama or McCain
  10. The third quarter inflation rate

Yesterday I blogged the Specials:

For Labour to gain a seat off National

If National gets 0.16% less on the specials and Labour 0.16% more on the specials, then Labour get the 120th seat. So if National gets 45.29% on the specials instead of 45.45% and Labour gets 33.93% instead of 33.77%, Labour gain a seat off National.

For Greens to gain a seat off National

If National gets 1.62% less on specials, and Greens 1.62% more, then Greens would get the 120th seat off National. Another scenario is Greens get 1.55% more and National and Labour lose 0.78% each.

For both Labour and Greens to gain a seat, and National lose two seats

If Labour does 2.51% better on specials and Greens 2.10% better, than they will take spots 119 and 120 and knock two seats off National. This would mean National gets only 40.8% of specials, Labour gets 36.3% and Greens get 8.5% for this to happen.

Ipredict has the following stock prices:

  • National to lose no seats – $0.77c
  • National to lose one seat – $0.24c
  • National to lose two seats – 0.02c

I have just purcahsed some National to lose one seat stock at a bit over 20c. It is by no means certain National will lose a seat, but with Labour needing to lift its vote for specials by just 0.16%, then I’d put the probability at well above 20c.

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