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April 4, 2008 12:23pm by David Farrar

General Debate 4 April 2008

I have been forgetting to do these. Plug away!

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General Debate

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jafapete

Hmm, let’s see what’s goin’ down stateside…

New CBS poll: “The outlook on the economy is as bleak as views on the state of the country as a whole. Just 21 percent say the economy is in good shape – the lowest percentage recorded since October of 1992. That number is down from January of this year, when 38 percent said the economy was in good shape.”

And: “Asked to compare the state of the country to how it was five years ago, 78 percent say things are worse today – the highest percentage since CBS News began asking the question in 1986. Only four percent say things are better now.”

How’s things going for the likely Dem candidate?…

WASHINGTON (CNN) — “Sen. Barack Obama raised more than $40 million from more than 442,000 donors in March, his presidential campaign announced Thursday.” Not bad… What’s this: “Sen. John McCain, the expected Republican nominee, raised $11 million in February. He has not announced his March total.” Oh dear.

From Rasmussen: “Thursday, April 03, 2008: During March, the Democrats held on to their partisan gains earned during the first two months on 2008… in February, the number of Democrats in the United States soared to the highest level ever measured by Rasmussen Reports—41.5%.” Lookin’ good!
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April 4, 2008 12:42pm
peterquixote

tough rule farrar you busy for sure
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April 4, 2008 12:50pm
pushmepullu

So does anybody think that Helen is taking notes on Mugabe’s exit and thinking how she would handle it better? I expect her plan is probably to ask for political asylum with the UN when she loses.
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April 4, 2008 12:52pm
pdm

If Helen is looking to Mugabe it will not be about how to exit but rather what tricks she can pull to stay in power.
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April 4, 2008 12:59pm
Inventory2

So you have – I thought you’d confined the general debate to the trash basket – so I plugged the gap!!

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/04/friday-forum.html
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April 4, 2008 12:59pm
dad4justice

What a week – red balloons and blue injunctions .What a cot case in madness.
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April 4, 2008 1:13pm
vto

one thing that amazes me is BNZ economist Tony Alexander and his forecasts. Recently he kept saying year after year that the property market was about to drop. On and on he went and it never did. His timing was way out. Now he reckons that it is 30% overvalued! This guy is one big muppet.

And re the actual market and the hype in the media – I think the last few months have been one of the best examples ever of ‘perception becoming reality’.
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April 4, 2008 1:19pm
philu

did you hear the one about the senators husband who was caught with a hooker..?

..on big beaver rd..?

..just off exit 69..?

http://whoar.co.nz/2008/senators-hubby-caught-with-a-hookeron-big-beaver-rdjust-off-exit-69/

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 1:20pm
Yvette

Did Peter Brown clear his race statement with Winston Peters?
Is this a diversion after the reaction to the further “give charities tax payer money” debacle as well as re-launching the tired old race card debate?
Did Dale Jones clear his comments with Winston?
Did Winston clear his no-comment with Helen?
And where the hell is the Race Relations Conciliator hiding?
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April 4, 2008 1:24pm
siobhan

VTO ..”BNZ economist Tony Alexander “:

What an arsehole, this is a representative from a bank which is busily telling everyone that the housing market is 30% over-valued, yet wasn’t his bank happy to let their customers take upto 100% mortgages on said overvalued property.

He might have piped up a couple of years ago – whoops don’t be stupid, they were making massive profits then. Wanker.
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April 4, 2008 1:25pm
vto

Agreed siobhan, banks and the moneylenders have a lot to answer for. They lend ridiculously agressively (125% mortgages in the UK!!!!!) and shower money around in good times and then desert everyone and destory them when times get tough. Witness the 30s depression, the 80s and its aftermath, and now again today. Banks are disproportionately responsible for a lot of these damaging times.

It is quite simple – they are not to be trusted.

It is no wonder that the authorities step in from time to time to control them. In the long ago even darker days instead of a mortgage as security they would take actual ownership of the property. Of course, any default and whammo you’ve lost your house! Now, the banks used to justify this as ‘policy and quite fair’. The same excuse is trotted out today for various of their unreasonable ‘policies’. One example may be the ability to call up a loan whenever they feel like it.

Any bankers out there care to comment / enlighten? I have only experienced one side of the lop-sided system.
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April 4, 2008 1:34pm
Inventory2

The Dom-Post puts the boot into Peter Brown this morning – ouch!!

http://keepingstock.blogspot.com/2008/04/dom-post-on-brown-asians.html
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April 4, 2008 1:50pm
philu

and how about this little doozy..?

http://whoar.co.nz/2008/the-bad-news-about-our-economy/

phil(whoar.co.nz)

i know dpf has been part of the paradigm shielding you from these realities..

but that’s just about ‘over’..eh..?

you all have to move on from your collective-denial..

why do you think key has been looking so worried of late..?

he full well knows the economic ‘doom ‘n gloom’ i have been trying to alert you all to..(for some time now..eh?)..

is a reality..

he must be wondering if he wants that poisoned chalice..

and i would hope that he is turning his skills to nutting out possible ‘solutions’ to what we all have coming up..

the upcoming years/dislocations will call for the putting aside of partisan politics..

and a wartime/’all shoulders to the wheel’ ethos must prevail..

for us to have any hope of ‘getting through it’..

and i would be very surprised if this does not seep through to the political theatre..

and that there is not a grand coalition of sorts..between labour and national..

at some part of the process/what we have to go through..

especially..but not only..because key has taken the national party back to the centre..
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April 4, 2008 1:52pm
Zarchoff

Check out Matt Robson’s letter to Reichsführer Brown at http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO0804/S00084.htm

Now normally I would say the Progressives are bunch of tossers but Robson’s letter is very good and right to the point. Let’s hope that NZF are toast after the election.
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April 4, 2008 1:55pm
pushmepullu

My fear is that Clark will be appointed a UN commissioner the moment the election results appear… she will thus have diplomatic immunity and will not be able to be prosecuted for corruption. At least we will be able to satisfy ourselves with declaring her election illegal and proclaiming Jenny Shipley, Bill English and Don Brash to have been the true Prime Ministers from 1997-2002, 2002-2005 and 2005-2008 retroactively.
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April 4, 2008 2:19pm
infused

Philu, wrong again… Now is the best time to make a buck. We knew this was coming, only idiots didn’t. I cannot wait for the economy to correct its self.

The money is still there, people just aren’t wasting it like before. It’s a correction, not a crash.

The scare mongering never ceases to amaze me.
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April 4, 2008 2:22pm
Lance

I see the good ole Wiatakere Ranges Heritage bill was passed.
Nice Herald snow job to follow saying how wonderful it all was.

If I personally didn’t know how shitty it all was and the serious implications for anyone in NZ I might have thought it sounded all fair and reasonable by what I read.
But alas in reality it is not.
In the communist state of NZ if the govt want something you have.. you are fucked. No compensation, no chance of appeal and you quickly get labeled a wrecker/hater with a hatred of all things good. Oh and lies WILL be told about you.
If this was such a wonder thing, why did Bob and his mates grossly distort the truth so much?

BTW I do not own land in the area or am I directly affected by it, I just found out how shocking it was by accident.
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April 4, 2008 2:27pm
philu

just ‘scaremongering’..eh..?..infused..?

http://whoar.co.nz/2008/property-sales-in-march-were-less-than-half-what-they-were-12-months-agofallen-by-over-56/

just ‘scaremongering’..eh..?

http://whoar.co.nz/2008/treasury-says-bear-stearns-deal-necessary-to-maintain-financial-stabilityand-the-american-taxpayers-have-loaned-us29-billion-to-jp-morgan-to-buybailout-bear-stearns/

just ‘scaremongering’..eh..?

http://whoar.co.nz/2008/imf-predicts-us-recession/

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 2:38pm
vto

Lance, haven’t followed it in detail but I always thought the waitakeres were a great place for a windfarm. Right along the top. Need to share the windmill love around. and around. and around. and around.

In actual fact – a windmill in each suburb would spread the vision pollution more equitably and be a form of userpays, rather than just the remotefarmdweller pays, as it is at the mo.
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April 4, 2008 2:40pm
battler

VTO,

Speculative developers have been building houses at a faster rate than the population has been growing, and greedy kiwis have been negatively gearing themselves and taking on more debt to buy more property, hoping against hope that growth in the “value” of their property will offset their heavy rental losses and high debt levels.

Between 1996 and 2006, the population increased 11.32% yet the number of dwellings increased by 15.17%
Meanwhile the average number of people per dwelling fell from 2.8 to 2.7

From 1996 to 2006 the median selling price of residential dwellings increased from $154,000 to $302,000 – an increase of 96.1% meanwhile median family incomes increaesd from $39,200 to $59,000 – an increase of 50.51%.

The multiple of median family income to median house sale price has risen from {median house price = 3.92 x median family income} to {median house price = 5.11 x family income}

This picture tells us that developers have been building more houses than are needed, and greedy kiwis have been buying overpriced property with borrowed money, hoping for capital gain, to rent to people who don’t exist in the numbers required and with the necessary incomes to prop up the market.

Either population & incomes rise, or house sale prices will fall.

What we know for sure, is that greedy speculators can’t bank on a free lunch buying overpriced property with money they haven’t yet earned to rent to people who don’t yet exist – the market will always catch them out in the end.

It’s no good blaming the banks that foolish people let their greed get the better of them.
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April 4, 2008 2:40pm
philu

infused..

do you think your host will appreciate being called an ‘idiot’..

“..We knew this was coming, only idiots didn’t..”

cos’..if he did know..and if he cared for his ‘loyal’ readership…he would have told us..eh..?

the funny thing is..all the ‘smart money’ has gone..

as always..the mug-punters are left to carry the load/mop up..

it’s called ‘naked capitalism’..eh..?

and guarantees the ‘barracudas’..with the gold tooth-picks..’get out’ soon enough..

and a ‘compliant/self-censoring media is all part of that paradigm..

eh dpf..?

‘whatever you do..don’t scare the horses/mug-punters!’..

eh dpf..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 2:44pm
philu

and just more on that ‘scaremongering’..infused..

i’ve posted 31 stories/links on whoar today..

nine of them are on/about the economic ‘perfect storm’..

and eight of them are on/about the environmental ‘perfect storm(s)’..

on our horizon..

i prefer to call it ‘warning/alerting/informing people’…infused..

(especially when nobody else is doing it..has done it…for the past year or so..)

(and these aren’t ‘my thoughts’..infused..they are all links to credible sources..)
.
i guess ‘scaremongering’ must be in the eye of the beholder..eh..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 2:59pm
vto

Battler, a few things;

1. What you outline has some cogency but is only one part of the mix. And I dont think the stats tell it completely, eg your second paragraph provides some justification itself in that less people per house and more people overall = more houses than people increase is required.

2. My post above re the moneylenders was about another part of that mix, namely the part the moneylenders have played in both property lending and the wider economy. Similarly re my post about Tony Alexander and his forecasts which have been off the mark for years (anyone could see a downturn coming but his timing was way off. And now he’s off the mark again imho).

3. Why do you call developers speculators. They are certainly speculators, but absolutely no more than the farmer who speculates on the price of wool, the student who speculates on the demand for their degree, the whix-bang-maker who speculates on the price of the whiz-bang-machine, the politician who specualtes on the desire for his politics, etc, etc. Everyone speculates on the future demand for their product or service. Developers speculate on the demand for their homes. I think you will find that serious and long term developers are cautious in that speculation. You seem to imply they are not. The problem arises because the industry atttracts more than its fair share of cowboys and fools due to its appearance as easy money I think.

4. You post misses the building cost factor, which I believe will underpin house values to a certain degree. Those building costs are driven by external factors to a large degree e.g. foreign demand for steel, cement, timber. They are not coming down from what I can see. What happens when the ‘value’ of a recently built home is say $200,000 but the cost to build a new one is say $300,000?

5. If, as you say, too many houses have been built then why are there currently not enough homes for rent? In the city where I live there is upward pressure on rents due to an excess demand. There are very few empty rentals.

You seem to blame it all on greed but it is not that simple. Recall the period from 1990 to 2002 (except 1995/6). People have short memories. People act like sheep, its human nature. Lets all buy buy buy! Lets all sell sell sell!

My comment about perception becoming reality I stand by. It is without doubt a factor in the recent market. And a stronger factor than it normally is. What you describe has played a part as well but not to the degree you seem to think.
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April 4, 2008 3:07pm
Owen McShane

Battler
It is unwise to presume from your figures that developers and builders are building more houses than we “need”.
Our “build rate” (new dwellings per 1000 population) is one of the lowest in the English speaking developed world) which is why are housing is so unaffordable. Your figures do not even tell half the story. In older cities many houses are demolished every day to be replaced with either newer larger houses or multiple dwellings. But the two permits for a duplex only add one house to the stock.
Family sizes are falling much faster than average occupancy so new household formation is much higher than your numbers suggest.
These new households are the result of divorce and other separations. Also consider all those apartments built for single students.
And yes many people are buying pre retirement homes and some will finally sell their town house on full retirement to the countryside. Also, young people finally leave home to set up their own home and because of their extensive home activities need more room than their parents did.

While I think many people have been foolish (I have been sending out warnings for years and been rubbished by all and sundry) I think it is unfair to call them greedy. There are so few means of saving in NZ and the Mass media have been boosting the real estate industry for years. When I have challenged the viability of these markets to reporters they normally just hang up.
But what other industry calls an inflating market a strong market. We do not say that about car prices or petrol prices.

The market is over regulated. Lightly regulated markets are in good shape.

Our demand in New Zealand is quite low compared to other cities in the world but our supply side has been dismal and has been getting worse.
YOu cannot blame the ordinary citizen for responding to a widespread promotion of an asset bubble which our present government has called “economic growth”. That is the fraud.
And the real greed has been from councils which have used the bubble to line their coffers with excessive reserve contributions and development contributions which had to be paid before you got title.
Many companies going to the wall right now would survive if they still had those hundreds of dollars or even millions of funds in their own bank accounts rather than sitting in councils where they are being hoarded and are NOT being spent on either reserves or development.
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April 4, 2008 3:10pm
labrator

Philu, you are not the only one that new bad times were ahead. Just because you say you were doesn’t mean you were.

Also, can I ask what it is with you expecting DPF to hold everyones hand on every single topic? I don’t hold anyone responsible for my knowledge as I actively seek it out yourself. Your blaming of DPF is a denial of personal responsibility which is basically implying that you are incapable or need someone elses help. If you’re alluding to him being part of a gigantic “right wing conspiracy” please provide some quotes of where he has encouraged people to either go into debt, take out unaffordable loans or denied anything remotely to do with the huge credit bubble.

Also stop linking to your own blog, we don’t like reading you here let alone somewhere where you have free reign over not only punctuation but also content. I think your consistent negative karma would be a prime indicator of that.
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April 4, 2008 3:57pm
bearhunter

DPF, I happened to notice that the number of voters on your little sidebar poll as who people would vote for stands at 666. Clearly this is the work of the devil and reading some of the posts it becomes yet more apparent. Have a good weekend, Spawn of Beelzebub, and stay away from that wicked Moet…
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April 4, 2008 4:11pm
gd

Talking of scaremongering notice how the proponents of climate change/AGW are now resorting to the good old medieval religion methodology Those who dare to raise any doubts or wish to debate are labelled ‘deniers”

We are seeing the start of a madness of epic proportions where the ‘deniers’ will be condemed to Hell and damnation

Watch as those who stand to gain and profit; Governments; traders like the NZX ;Companies who see an opportunity to price gouge all ramp up their attacks on anyone who dares to question their ‘truth”

All part of a campaign to separate the citizens from their hard earned cash make no mistake the culprits might be a disparte group but they are all united to this cause
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April 4, 2008 4:19pm
philu

don’t click the fucken links..lab-rat..!

it’s that easy..!

those who want to..will..

the willfully ignoranrt..such as yourself..

can just ‘wallow’..

eh..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 4:42pm
philu

lab-rat said..

“..Philu, you are not the only one that new(sic) bad times were ahead. Just because you say you were doesn’t mean you were..”

lab-rat..my first sub-prime alert was on 27/1/07..

http://whoar.co.nz/2007/yet-another-marker-tracking-the-tanking-of-the-american-housing-market/

show me ‘where else’..?..

where are the ‘other ones’..?..telling you this..?

or are you just blowing that assertion out your butt..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 5:01pm
labrator

How about here? Someone who put their money where their mouth was and even sold slices of the action to others. He started this back in 2006 or earlier. So much for you being a ground breaking economic genius that was the only one in the entire world to see this coming.

Care to elaborate on where DPF told people that none of this was happening? Or are you avoiding questions as you are known to do. Please tidy up your puntuation before correcting my typos. Thanks.
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April 4, 2008 5:11pm
dad4justice

Obviously philly’s dealer spiked his weed today as clearly he is psychotic.
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April 4, 2008 5:11pm
philu

you link to a story from jan 15..2008..?..to ‘prove’ your case..?

you really are a feckin idjit/joke..!

aren’t you..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 5:21pm
labrator

Philu, can you even read? I’m not talking about the article I’m talking about the content of the article. In 2006 the man in the article… oh who am I kidding? It’s like dynamiting fish in a barrel. Ignorant fish that won’t ever see out of the barrel let alone the dynamite in front of them.

The only ‘feckin idjit/joke..’ here is you philu, thank you for proving it.
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April 4, 2008 5:38pm
Paul

So anyone got thoughts on the nonsensical sentencing trusts outburst today?

I know you guys all heve the knives out for Cidy Kiro, but I thought her comments were adding to the debate.

http://concernedoflinwood.wordpress.com/2008/04/03/sensible-sentencing-trust-has-it-wrong/

PS Dad this is general debate, you know the action of adding to and continuing discussions, not just throwing your insane ideas about the place.
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April 4, 2008 5:47pm
dad4justice

Take a bit longer than expected today at the clinic Paul and quite frankly I am Pauled out with all these Pauls and Pulls and Pills, so go jerk off over a cliff on Brokeback Mountain you tosser.
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April 4, 2008 5:51pm
Paul

Your sexual fascination for my Mountain is too disturbing weirdo. Any thoughts on the debates?

And what’s wrong with taking a day off work to spend with my boys in the Nor-wester, football – picnic – cafe the beach – great day.
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April 4, 2008 5:55pm
dad4justice

Oh great this this the Oprah Kiwiblog Show – I couldn’t give a fuck if you danced with the Queen today you wankster.
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April 4, 2008 5:57pm
Peak Oil Conspiracy

***Flamewar Alert***
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April 4, 2008 6:00pm
Paul

Come on sunshine, at the very least have a dig about Cindy Kiro or the primary school banning birthday cakes (good thing).

And BTW you bought up what I was doing today and it had nothing to do with your wing of the insane asylum.
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April 4, 2008 6:06pm
Paul

“Flamewar Alert”

are they new kids PJ’s made in China?
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April 4, 2008 6:08pm
dad4justice

NoPOC, I wouldn’t bother, as I just get fucking demerits and I am stunned that this jerk off gummint signing a FTD with China with tariffs in place!!!! Talk about Miss Klark selling our identity. Try selling a house. Yeah right. What cess pit gummint fuckwits.
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April 4, 2008 6:10pm
tom hunter

RIGHTEOUS! RIGHTEOUS!
Crush the Turtle

But I’m watching the launch sequence in Apollo 13 so what the hell!
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April 4, 2008 6:17pm
Paul

Dad in that ranting and raving, I think there was a suggestion of an argument in there, but you are the master of hiding it within froth and phlem.

It’s a good point that we are signing FTAs with governments whom still maintain tariffs, like with the US, the most protected market in the world. Our primary sector when through massive upheaval to modernise, yet they are met with markets whom still maintain walls.

But I’m not sure if most people are as astute as you Dad and would think the FTA is good, and indeed I couldn’t see National reversing it.
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April 4, 2008 6:41pm
dad4justice

Signing a free trade deal with tariffs attached is mental and shows little respect towards our primary industry !!!!
Paul I doubt that like Labour, National have a brain.
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April 4, 2008 6:49pm
Paul

good god we are almost in agreement Dad, see without the yelling we can have an interesting debate.

The flip side of the ‘mental’ act is however opening up of massive markets (despite how many they execute), and first cab off the ranks so to speak should have advantages
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April 4, 2008 6:59pm
dad4justice

Just imagine the revenue earned on Chinese import tariffs ? Maybe it could pay for our hospitals to provide a decent and dignified service you demented idiot.
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April 4, 2008 7:02pm
Paul

Not sure how great the Chinese Dairy industry is, and I doubt very much if our Rice harvest will be rocked by the Chinese tarriffs?

Does this now mean that Kiwi “made in China” is now fully assimilated into the market, do they drop the made in china tag now?

I’m also guessing that wool will also have a boost, as they are still huge on natural fibers over there and wool is a sought after commodity in China, but those closer to the commodity markets may have a better understanding than my weekly one hour does of Rural Report on National Radio.
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April 4, 2008 7:09pm
philu

sheesh..!..the ‘civility’ didn’t last long..

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 7:10pm
JSF2008

Hell 70 years ago with our NEW best friends the german NAZI party we could have been the first cab of the rank selling HIGH END GAS CHAMBER AND MASS BODY DISPOSALE EQUIPMENT. Hell little New Zealand and NAZI germany/CHINA , what a PROUD combination. TO all the fools who are proud of our communist loving leader??? sick sick, we will dispise this UNKNOWN giving away of our country and spit on liarbor party names ie the soon to be thrown out, hd
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April 4, 2008 7:17pm
Paul

You’re just not funny and a complete tosser aren’t you. Are there issues of inadequacy with body parts that we need to be made aware of?

So National will repeal this FTA and the country will suffer?

How’s the ‘made in china’ shirt you are wearing by the way, or the shoes? I would assume with such a ‘thing’ for China you are of course completely consistent and don’t have anything ‘made in china’ in your house.

Interesting while we were in Vancouver, it was actually very very hard to find ‘made in china’, the GAP sweatshops were all in Vietnam, I even managed to buy something made in Mongolia and Surinam, still it is globalisation that our capitalist overlords are pushing.
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April 4, 2008 7:32pm
philu

easy on that ‘caps lock..!..tiger..!

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 7:32pm
Paul

And of course you won’t be watching any of the Olympics, good on you.
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April 4, 2008 7:34pm
dad4justice

Paul – will the Chinese be selling body parts at the Olympics?
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April 4, 2008 7:54pm
JSF2008

WOW the liarbor party members are really on duty tonight , ,im scared of putting paint on my keyboard winding you LOSSIERS up as im painting, ( health warning any grammar errors, sorry bros). china and New Zealands fta WILL result in crap for our country. Who can prove me wrong,no one as the witch has suppressed all information.Paul shooting at the Olympics will they have mass shooting,in the back of the neck executions of Tibetians , thats a favourite sport of communist/leftist govenments.Think of clay shooting as another monk is dispatched towards heaven only to be blasted to pieces, by the RED army.
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April 4, 2008 7:58pm
Lee C

First time I heard that bad times were ahead it was Don Brash whoo said it during the Leader’s debate last election on the tv..
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April 4, 2008 8:13pm
philu

d4j..ru moonlighting as a serial number..?

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 8:15pm
JSF2008

philu, i luv my style, its vintage 1948+ philu i hold down shift not caps, ps the new style of txting,(health warning,could contain spelling mistakes,sorry bros)
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April 4, 2008 8:21pm
Paul

J WTF is a “liarbor” and if you are being childish and calling names and I assume you mean Labour. Get with the program. Labour are too centralist for me, and I haven’t voted for them since Lange.

WTF is the witch? Are there now dark Wiccans’ powers afoot in the Govt – this is so cool, is there a wiki entry on it?

Which of the summary executions of civilians in Iraq by the US forces is any different to the Chinese?

Phil, I think so. He’s one of this new bread of National people. Dad is now playing the role of Key – the moderate, while his alter ego J is playing the role of Williamson etc the out and out loonies.

And Lee, yes Brash was indeed nocking the economy way back then and despite his best efforts to knock down the economy it still rocked on.
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April 4, 2008 8:21pm
Paul

hate to brag on about this, but as it is general debate, anyone with thoughts on the SST and their attack on Cindy Kiro???

http://concernedoflinwood.wordpress.com/2008/04/03/sensible-sentencing-trust-has-it-wrong/
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April 4, 2008 8:32pm
JSF2008

what the hell is the SST,between painting and drinking wine PAUL, (you seem more relaxed now) im a blue collar worker who has to keep his nose to the grindstone,Paul
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April 4, 2008 8:53pm
JSF2008

philu, lets not go down this worn out road,, philu
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April 4, 2008 8:56pm
philu

‘woof!”..

(barking right back at you..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)
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April 4, 2008 9:01pm
reid

Meanwhile, Mugabe says he will quit, provided he doesn’t face prosecution.
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April 4, 2008 9:21pm
JSF2008

Sorry Paul , its late for me ,im slower than a ford or holden , duh ,look at Pauls post john, http/etc. sst, you deserve a bullet in the back of your head ,john,, pay $200 and get out of jail.MAYBE
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April 4, 2008 10:43pm
SPC

The sun is here discounted not the cause of global wamring in the latest research work.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7327393.stm

The NBR omits mention of the above research – while including reporting on another work which is indicative of negative feedback to global warming coming from cloud cover (rather than the positive feedback some had built into the global warming models), which they conclude is reason to be in the climate change camp (those who feel that the prime problem may be climate changes rather than a global warming per se).

Thus if both works are valid, then one would surmise that Greenhouse gas is causing global warming (not solar activity) but that because of a negative effect from cloud cover, it might not be as progressive/great a build up of warming as some have feared.
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April 4, 2008 11:12pm
bwakile

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=3047322

just saw this link on the Herald site
.they must be desperate to make Clark look good
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April 5, 2008 9:45am
peanut

Has anyone given thought to the downfall in the housing market and collapse of small finance companies?

I suggest it is a Labour party campaign to get affordable housing for NZers, at the expense of many who have sunk their life savings into buying their own home.

A BNZ commentator said on Breakfast, that it was good for new home buyers to see this drop in housing. What about those who already own a home, or who have just bought one?

Has inflation dropped? If not, what has been the purpose of keeping high interest rates. If it has dropped,which I doubt, then the rates should drop accordingly.
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April 5, 2008 10:39am
JSF2008

Its a laugh , Mr Farrars blogg is like school , hell i check my demerites(NONE YET) before i check the latest posts. d4j just roll with the blows ,dont get demerites as clarks lackies win with every loss of a TRUE NEW ZEALANDER, posting against the witch,ie a person who is worried about the direction and demise of our beautiful country.We are adults and flaming goes on but i think theres a whimpy approach to the issure of demerites. ie punish the poster if he flames a iletist smarlly prat. ie the referee who sinbins the player who has his nuts grabbed,and responds(just a thought)
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April 5, 2008 3:28pm
SPC

peanut

Yeah, I have.

The government should complete some of the residential housing property developments stalled by loss of finance. In return taking a share of these developments. This would maximise the return to investors and help clean up the business mess ASAP. It would also maintain economic activity, which would help to sustain economic growth.

I think you are wrong about the government’s involvement in the recent fall in house values – despite being concerned about housing affordability, they did nothing to stall the upward movement of house values, because if people felt wealthy they voted for the incumbent government. The RB had asked them to do something (because of the inflationary impact of wealth generated increases in consumer spending, as well as the land price inflation) and in the absence of any action from government increased the OCR, which has resulted in ending the house and land/residential property value rise.

The BNZ admits that housing is overvalued by 30% (because of obvious unaffordability to occupier buyers and a declining interest in overvalued property from new property investors at this level of interest rate) but has been lending 100% mortgages anyhow. Their stated opposition to new house building is to encourage a shortage of housing so that rents can rise. This would allow property investors to pay back their mortgages (so they will hold onto property and do so rather than be forced to sell at a 10-30% loss – which would result in bad debts for the bank). Their advice has little to do with anyone’s interest but their own and those investors they issued 100% mortgages to.

“I suggest it is a Labour party campaign to get affordable housing for NZers, at the expense of many who have sunk their life savings into buying their own home.”

Untrue – the only action against the rising property values came from the independent RB. IMO the government should have acted to reduce upward pressure on house values from property investors but did not, probably because people like you would have accused them of being anti-property owners. Instead they continued National’s LACQ regime which offers tax incentives encouraging speculation on property.

“A BNZ commentator said on Breakfast, that it was good for new home buyers to see this drop in housing.”

Such an obvious fact, even a BNZ commentator could not avoid it.

“What about those who already own a home, or who have just bought one?”

The value on a house in 2002 (when I owned mine mortgage free) might well have doubled (mine has trebled according to the 2007 valuation) – a 30% fall on the 2007 value would mean nothing to most home owners. As to those owner occupiers who bought housing after 2001/2002 when values rose – the circumstances differ. What they need to note is, they would have been paying rent if they were not owning and the general trend for property values (land and building) is a 7%pa rise over time (they will see capital gain in their home ownership – within 10 years). This speaks to the general truth that over time investment pays off (despite shorter term corrections). Thus the issue is really whether they can afford to meet the interest rate cost on the mortgage.

As for property investors and the banks who facilitated their binge, one would have hoped the wide boys doing the borrowing or the lending had learnt something from the 1986-1988 experience …

“has inflation dropped? If not, what has been the purpose of keeping high interest rates.”

You could argue against increasing wages to local doctors because they will still go overseas for higher wages anyhow. But would that be the right thing to do as then more would go overseas.

Similarly it is hard to stand against a rising tide of inflationary pressures with a single mechanism such as interest rates and expect any quick turnaround. The rationale is that some containment of the rising trend is appropriate.

As I said, IMO the government should have acted to reduce upward pressure on house values from property investors but did not. Thus the RB acted on this matter and the others as it does – as they do whenever inflation rises (from whatever source). It has reduced the inflationary impact of fuel and other commodity price rises by boosting the local dollar value (at the expense of incomes to exporters, who are fortunately otherwise assisted by good terms of trade). The RB will hold interest rates high until inflation falls (probably when global fuel and food prices come off their peak) and by this time the housing market will have cooled, as even the BNZ has noted.
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April 5, 2008 5:31pm
Fred

SPC, good post, however as I have said previously, I think that the RB fueled the latest housing boom by raising the OCR which drew money into the country (assisted by a favourable tax break), leaving the banks flush with money and overvaluing the NZ$. For banks, lending on property is a no-brainer, an easy option, despite doing nothing to increase the wealth of the country (or boost productivity). What is the percentage of the economy associated with housing construction? 20 to 30% I’m not sure? It’s probably too high anyway for our longterm good. So if the developments/developers start falling over it will have serious consequences (the builders will simply head off to Australia where they are building 100’s of thousands of houses). Of course to lower the OCR quickly now will have dramatic unwinding effects. If the FTA agreement with China includes freer travel and investment (and residency?? be interesting to see the Aussie response here!), this may soften the blow.
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April 6, 2008 9:26am

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