Who won the popular vote?

Some interesting stats at Real Clear Politics in terms of the popular vote for the Democratic nomination.

With all primaries over, Obama leads Clinton by just 0.1% in the popular vote. That is 34,000 out of 35 million cast. This excludes Michigan where Obama was not on the ballot.

If you add on estimates for four Caucuses, his lead stretches to 0.4%.

However if you add Michigan in, Clinton leads by 0.8% or 0.5% including the caucuses.

This is a bit unfair though as Obama was not on the ballot paper. However 45% voted uncommitted and if one assigns them to Obama (which is the fairest thing to do), what is the result?

It is Clinton ahead by 0.1%. However add in estimates for the four caucuses and it is Obama by 0.2%.

So it is a bit like Florida in 2000. Both sides can claim to have won the popular vote depending on how you count it. In three scenarios Obama wins, and in three Clinton wins.

I tend to think the final result I have listed – the one with Obama ahead by 0.2% is probably the most appropriate as it includes all primaries and caucuses.

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