iPredict Column

This week’s column:

A quick sell

One can make a quick and near guaranteed sell with OBAMA.DISAP.4NOV. You can sell for 4c, which is not much. But it will pay out in just two weeks time so a 4.1% return over two weeks is equal to around 105% return on an annualized basis.

And it is almost risk free as it will be judged on the Real Clear Politics average of the poll on the 4th of November. Now they average the last eight polls, which tend to be over a fortnight or so. So some of the polls just published will count towards that average and they are showing Obama 8% to 10% ahead.

Winston fading

MP.PETERS.2011 peaked in September at 42c. For the last month it has been constant at 30c, but in the last week has dropped to between 22c and 26c. His “tsunami of immigrants” speech failed to generate any movements in the polls, and also attracted little media coverage as the other parties have realized now the trick is to ignore Peters, not respond to him. Hence the market has started to mark down his chances of pulling off a comeback.

Going Going …

Four new stocks this week on whether the National and Labour Leaders and Deputy Leaders will lose their jobs by the end of 2010.

DEP.KEY.2010 is floated at 10c and has reduced to 5c by late yesterday. This is effectively at 0c, as investors know a 5% return over 14 months is less than they could get in a bank.

DEP.ENGLISH.2010 also floated at 10c and didn’t have a single trader yesterday and only one trade today at 10.6c. Traders don’t see a lot of money to be made here.

DEP.GOFF.2010 floated at 12c and early buyers have made a good profit with the price rising to 30c. This seems about right to me, and I’d start selling if it goes much higher.

DEP.KING.2010 also floated at 12c and one buyer (was it Shane Jones?) pushed it up to 74c but now has stabilized at 34c. I think this stock is undervalued and may go a bit higher. Why? King like Goff entered Parliament in the 1980s. While both experienced politicians, if the pressure comes on for fresher faces, it is easier to change the Deputy than the Leader.

Highest Trading Stocks

Kiwis like their petrol price stocks. A whopping $30,000 has been traded in the last week on what the price of petrol will be at the end of October.

Next most traded is OCR.NC.29OCT as people get in last minute trades on whether Bollard will change the official cash rate.

Cheers,

David

Disclosure

David’s current iPredict positions are:

BROWN.RESIGN Short, DEP.GOFF.2010 Short, DEP.KING.2010 Short, DL.KING.09 Short, FASA04.REPEAL Short, GST.UP.JULY10 Short, LEAD.GOFF.09 Short, MAYOR.BROWN Long, MIN.DEPART2.09 Short, MP.ANDERTON Short, MP.PETERS.2011 Short, NAT.MAORI.09 Short, OBAMA.DISAP.4NOV Short, OCR.INCR.APR10 Short, OCR.INCR.JAN10 Short, PETERS.LEADER Long, PM.2011.NATIONAL Long, UK2010.CON.ABS Long, UK2010.CON.MAJ Short, ZIM.MUGABE Short