iPredict election stocks

released stocks today on who will win the Maori seats next year, and Epsom and Ohariu. Earlier this week also stocks on what each party will get as party vote in the election.

The current prediction for the election, is:

  1. National 46.3%, 59 seats
  2. Labour 36.6%, 46 seats
  3. Greens 6.9%, 8 seats
  4. NZ First 3.6%, 0 seats
  5. Maori, 3.7%, 5 seats
  6. United 0.3%, 1 seat (overhang)
  7. ACT 1.9%, 2 seats

So you need 61 of 121 seats to govern. National/ACT/United are 62 seats. With Maori they are 67 seats. It shows the importance of ACT being there.

Labour/Greens are 54 seats. With Maori Party they could make 59 seats. Close but not quite there.

National is well ahead of Labour in the polls, but iPredict shows people think that come the election things will be closer. I agree.

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