The current prediction for the election, is:
- National 46.3%, 59 seats
- Labour 36.6%, 46 seats
- Greens 6.9%, 8 seats
- NZ First 3.6%, 0 seats
- Maori, 3.7%, 5 seats
- United 0.3%, 1 seat (overhang)
- ACT 1.9%, 2 seats
So you need 61 of 121 seats to govern. National/ACT/United are 62 seats. With Maori they are 67 seats. It shows the importance of ACT being there.
Labour/Greens are 54 seats. With Maori Party they could make 59 seats. Close but not quite there.
National is well ahead of Labour in the polls, but iPredict shows people think that come the election things will be closer. I agree.