Poll Update

Roy Morgan have just released their latest poll. Labour drop to a record low of 24.5%, National stay at 53% and NZ First drops to 3.0%.

Normally there is a week delay between a RM poll ending and the release of results. However this one goes right up until yesterday. It covers a 12 days period so around half is before and after the tape incident.

In the sidebar is the latest weighted average of the public polls (only counting the latest poll per pollster). National is projected to be on 65 seats and Labour 34. That means their caucus reducing by a quarter. Their average poll rating is 26.5% so really for Labour a good result now would be 30%.

NZ First on the five polls is 3.2%, but people will be looking for the first poll done entirely after his showboating.

For now I have assumed that ACT wins Epsom. The latest One News poll had Banks 11% behind Goldsmith but I am reminded that no public poll has ever shown ACT winning Epsom and they have won it twice before. However if you assume ACT do not make it, then National and the Greens will gain one seat each.