Latest poll

The latest Newshub Reid Research is at Curia.

It shows National up and Labour down, with the Greens at 4.9% and NZ First at 6%.

Hell if we got a result with both Greens and NZ First at 4.9% I’d be so happy and drunk I wouldn’t care who actually forms Government!

This is obviously different to the One News Colmar Brunton poll last week. As always I suggest looking at the average of the when they diverge.

On the time and size weighted average, National is at 43%, Labour 30%, NZ First 7.7% and Greens 5.2%. The Greens are in great danger of being wiped out.

Ironically if the Greens were wiped out it would help Labour form a Government. With the Greens there the poll average is:

  • Nat + NZF = 62 seats
  • Lab + NZF = 59 seats

But if the Greens get 4.9% then it is:

  • Nat + NZF = 65 seats
  • Lab + NZF = 62 seats

So if the Greens make 5%, then NZ First less likely to go with Labour. But if they drop below 5% then a Labour/NZF Government is possible.

Going to be a very interestign next 10 days.

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