The latest Newshub Reid Research is at Curia.
It shows National up and Labour down, with the Greens at 4.9% and NZ First at 6%.
Hell if we got a result with both Greens and NZ First at 4.9% I’d be so happy and drunk I wouldn’t care who actually forms Government!
This is obviously different to the One News Colmar Brunton poll last week. As always I suggest looking at the average of the polls when they diverge.
On the time and size weighted average, National is at 43%, Labour 30%, NZ First 7.7% and Greens 5.2%. The Greens are in great danger of being wiped out.
Ironically if the Greens were wiped out it would help Labour form a Government. With the Greens there the poll average is:
- Nat + NZF = 62 seats
- Lab + NZF = 59 seats
But if the Greens get 4.9% then it is:
- Nat + NZF = 65 seats
- Lab + NZF = 62 seats
So if the Greens make 5%, then NZ First less likely to go with Labour. But if they drop below 5% then a Labour/NZF Government is possible.
Going to be a very interestign next 10 days.