Roy Morgan and NZ First

There is no doubt NZ First has increased its support. It usually does when they get in the news, and ironically as much as Winston loves to pretend there is a media conspiracy against him, they in fact give him and NZ First far more publicity (but not scrutiny) than other parties polling at his level.

So they are up in the polls, but are they on the verge of 5% as Roy Morgan had them? No, or not yet, in my opinion.

Roy Morgan often has had NZ First higher than the other polls. They had them at 4.5% in May 2011, 5% in April 2011, 5.5% in Jan 2011, 4.5% in Sep 2010, 4.5% in Aug 2010, and prior to the last election had them twice at 6.5% in July and Aug 2008.

As always, I recommend looking at the average of the polls. This had them at 2.2% in October and rising to 3.1% in November. So as I said an increase, but still around 50,000 votes short of 5%.

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