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May 30, 2013 3:24pm by David Farrar

Latest poll average

I’ve updated the average of the public polls to reflect the five polls released this month.

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NZ Politics
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Comments (35)

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Redbaiter

It is essential that the Labour/ National/ Left media stranglehold on NZ politics is broken.

Vote outside the square next election.

Colin Craig’s press release on food in schools-

In light of National’s Food in Schools announcement Colin Craig predicts the following three outcomes.

1. Many parents will opt out of providing breakfasts for their children, knowing they’ll get a free one at school.
2. If given the opportunity, virtually all schools will adopt the Food in Schools programme.
3. As a result of the above, the cost of the programme will increase over time to be tens of millions.

“If this policy is pursued, I’m confident my predictions will prove accurate. It’s often quoted that ‘what you encourage, you’ll get more of.’ In this case, more parents depending on the government to give their kids a meal.”

“There is no question that this policy opens a new door for dependency. The culture of dependency is already too prevalent. This is yet another cost we cannot afford.”

“This programme is politically motivated, and a step in the wrong direction. The real solution is not another hand-out, but ensuring parents take responsibility for their own children.”

“Following up parents not only ensures a child is fed, but enables broader issues of neglect to be identified and addressed. It’s about finding real solutions, not putting on a band aid.”

“Political point scoring is one thing, doing the best for New Zealanders is another.”

Making much more sense than National or Labour.
15 11
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May 30, 2013 3:32pm
dime

ACT! will have 1 MP.

Dung will go with whoever keeps him in the level of comfort hes accustomed to. (no flying on old 737’s for dung).

The Maoris will jump ship to the left if they think they can form a government.

It would be nice if Colin Craig can get in. I say give him Rodney. Ill even vote for the creepy bastard
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May 30, 2013 3:34pm
RRM

Can Kolin break through the margin of error?

Tune in next week… same time… same channel! 🙂
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May 30, 2013 3:38pm
infused

Agree with you Red.
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May 30, 2013 3:44pm
Redbaiter

Thanks Infused.

Craig may be perceived as creepy by some. He has some policies I completely disgree with (no asset sales). He has people working for him that I don’t like much at all (Christine Rankin). But that is not the issue.

There is simply no other practical way to begin to drive a wedge into the progressive triumvirate (Labour/ Nats/ Media) that controls politics in this country. As Russell Taylor says in the most excellent article referenced in the link below, where he argues for support of the UKIP-

“All this is beside the point, however. As I’ve said before, UKIP’s value is as an agent of change. It doesn’t matter if they lack what it takes to form a government. What matters is that they give a platform to ideas that challenge the sclerotic liberal orthodoxy around which the major parties and their media cheerleaders are huddled. To my mind, anything that breaks this ideological death-grip is worth supporting.”

http://bogpaper.com/2013/05/15/russell-taylor-in-praise-of-defying-the-status-quo/

Read it, for a reason to vote Conservative Party in NZ.

“sclerotic liberal orthodoxy around which the major parties and their media cheerleaders are huddled.”

Ain’t that just the best phrase?
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May 30, 2013 3:46pm
KiwiGreg

Not sure why you have hairpiece getting in an electorate seat and Act not. We sucked it in an voted Banks before, pretty sure we’ll do it again if needed.
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May 30, 2013 3:55pm
Cunningham

KiwiGreg of course Epsom will vote in ACT again if they have to. The Labour and Green policies are so unpalatable that they will do whatever it takes to keep them out of government. I know I would if I lived there.
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May 30, 2013 4:03pm
iMP

The schools issue is going to cost National quite heavily in party votes Christchurch, which is what brought home the victory in 2011. I agree with Redbaiter; we’re seeing a huge shift in America, Australia and the UK to conservative frameworks. The same is apparent with the Conservative Party even existing in NZ following the 2011 election and how well they did after only a few months, in that last poll.

The main factor will be where voters perceive NZF or Consv. sit in 12 months time and who can win over the 5%. Winner will take all (of the 5% share needed). Consv,’s seem to be building steadily; NZF still doesn’t have a deputy Leader in House and all Winnie can do is roll out his tired xenophobia.

Watch Pakuranga and other possible by-election contests. Could be extremely interesting.
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May 30, 2013 4:04pm
Kea

It is essential that the Labour/ National/ Left media stranglehold on NZ politics is broken.

Not by the 1.9 percenters of the conservative party mate 🙂
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May 30, 2013 4:04pm
KapitiCoast

@ Redbaiter…irrespective if you agree or not with the free breakfasts, the move by National has blunted Hone and Labour, and only costing the Govt. (taxpayer) $1.9mil a year, AND it’s Wheetbix and Milk…what most parents would agree is both adequate and what they probably had each morning for breakfast. What National have done by introducing it to decile 1-4, then 1-6 is take away any wind Labour/Hone had in making it political! (it already was political…no matter how you believe National ‘capitulated’) NOW National can say it’s done….Hone is spitting tacks as he wanted $100mil spent and now saying ‘it’s a joke’, Labour saying it’s not enough….either way Redbaiter, this is a GOOD move by National as the rest of NZ will be saying..”Why $100 million Hone?”, “What would you give to the kids, and how much it cost Labour”?……Hone wanted the debate on his bill to be delayed till after the Maori By election so he could ‘campaign’ on it, well that’s fucked him up now eh?….in my book well done National as you have given adequate breakfasts and left opposition scrambling to say why Weetbix/Milk is ‘not enough’ and it’s an uphill argument they will lose.
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May 30, 2013 4:31pm
KiwiGreg

@ Cunningham I do, and I will…. If Nats had any brains they wouldnt stand a candidate.
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May 30, 2013 4:33pm
Kea

KapitiCoast , you are onto it. National is in power and polling well because they keep stealing Labours thunder.

If they listened to the political strategy genuis Redbaiter they would be polling at the same level as his Conservative Party (1/9%) and not at 46%
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May 30, 2013 4:42pm
bhudson

Making much more sense than National or Labour.

But he’s more of Statist than both of them.

He wants the State to be the determiner or arbiter of everything. Mao and Stalin thought the same.
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May 30, 2013 4:44pm
RRM

Kea – who do you think Colin Craig’s “Clint” is…?
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May 30, 2013 4:47pm
KapitiCoast

I agree Kea, no matter how you look at it…the opposition now have to explain WHY their policy is better but costs millions and millions more (his wife/whanau involved somewhere in running it no doubt)…Hone’s will include lunch and employ people to dish it out, National say let the parents/volunteers on a roster system for free, you can’t tell me many OAP’s would not enjoy dishing out breakfast to kids, some parents also I’ll bet. Hone would have nutritionalists, as would Labour and a ‘menu’ no doubt for the little darlings who refuse the weetbix on offer….see how explaining that to the voting public would be death to any party (how many parents out there when their kids say…’i’m not eating that’, they then ask ‘OK pumpkin, what would you like instead’…yeah right :)….well done Key…well done Sanitarium and Fonterra, free advertising and putting something back into the community/country…win/win all round.
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May 30, 2013 4:54pm
Kea

KapitiCoast, National keep doing this and it leaves the opposition the option of going too far left, or to the right of National. It is a smart move.

RRM, Clint sounds like a gay porn stars name to me.
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May 30, 2013 4:58pm
Ross Miller

Fascinating the comments from the uber right re the breakfast in schools programme for low decile schools. Blinded by ideology they refuse to acknowledge the kids are the victim in all of this …

Fact … kids with empty stomachs don’t learn. Fact … some parents refuse to accept what is a basic parental responsibility.

So you can sit on your hands and argue the toss about that or accept there is a problem which needs addressing.

I guess one way to meet their concern is to institute forced sterilisation for those who are deemed to be potentially bad parents.

What the Government is introducing is a much more practical solution to a problem that has existed for years.

If Craig is the answer it must be a stupid question and as for tossing Rodney to a narrow focused ideologue and in the process dump an excellent local member … well Winston may well pay back the $158k too.

It’s great to see the uber Right and the left left of politics so pissed off with the poll numbers.
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May 30, 2013 5:04pm
KapitiCoast

@ Ross Miller….a year and a half out from an election the polls mean nothing, an old barometer that needs tapping….I agree with your sentiments, but still important to see that the current Govt. (who ever is in power) is not flatlining. They say a week in politics is along time, a year and a half is an eternity!, besides ALL parties conduct their own polling and cogitate how/where to change tack if looking bad, these TV polls/Roy Morgan polls and Horizon (has there been a Horizon one?) are just to grab viewers attention and fill the hour of ‘news’
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May 30, 2013 5:15pm
bringbackdemocracy

Nice increase for the Conservative party. More support than half of the parties in parliament.
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May 30, 2013 5:26pm
Kea

Nice increase for the Conservative party. More support than half of the parties in parliament.

Maybe they can work really hard and double that support. Then they will be at the same level as NZ First.
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May 30, 2013 5:32pm
RRM

Nice increase for the Conservative party. More support than half of the parties in parliament.

More support than any other minor single-issue / single-seat pressure party in Parliament…?

😆 Talk about damning with faint praise!

That’s like saying the New Hyundai Accent is “Faster than most Morris Minors”…
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May 30, 2013 5:44pm
Redbaiter

Ain’t it great to see the beads of sweat dripping from the brows of the progs..
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May 30, 2013 5:58pm
Bad__Cat

Ross Miller (1,542) Says:
May 30th, 2013 at 5:04 pm

“If Craig is the answer it must be a stupid question …”

Brilliant!

Red will forgive all of his crazy ideas, because they are both actually christian Fundies at heart and not real Conservatives.
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May 30, 2013 6:03pm
nasska

Not quite right Bad_Cat. Colin Craig is a religious nut….Reddy is just out of his tree. 🙂
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May 30, 2013 6:08pm
Redbaiter

Narsekissa is one of the multitude of nauseating Progressives on Kiwiblog (Grief, Thedavaselinemode, RRM, Kea are a few others as equally revolting) who all push for that same old sclerotic liberal orthodoxy.
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May 30, 2013 6:20pm
nasska

….” sclerotic liberal orthodoxy”….

Reddy’s found some new buzzwords. 🙂
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May 30, 2013 6:25pm
RRM

It’s got to be better than the scatological conservative orgiasticity that occupies most of his time lately!

😆 Hey Wedbaiter: You should make a post on truebluetumbleweedz.com with all our faces lined up under a giant word like PROGRESSIVE.

That would really show Kolin that you’re an insightful political commentator, well worthy of being on his team. Power at last!! 😈
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May 30, 2013 6:39pm
Alan Johnstone

The facts of this election are simple.

Phil Goff came within 40,000 votes of being prime minister. Let no one have any pretense the that Maori party wouldn’t have backed Labour if they could. Even more so now with TT gone.

The left have 2 choices they can try and turn over 20,000 National voters from last time or they can get these votes from the 780,000 people that didn’t vote last time. The facts tell us that turnout was hugely disproportionally lower amongst the lower soci economic groups than the higher ones. There are virtually no votes for National to pick up in these 780,000 non voters.

When Labour won in 2005 the turnout was 80.9% vs 74.21% in 2011 and Labour won because they had a great GOTV operation and their ground game esp in South and West Auckland was spot on. 170,000 more people voted in 2005 than in 2011, almost all of them for Labour.

Obama’s victory last year was a classic example of first class ground operations winning states. If I was in charge of Labour, investment in ground operations in poorer areas of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch would be my sole focus. If they get this right, they win. It’s that simple.
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May 30, 2013 7:33pm
Kea

Narsekissa is one of the multitude of nauseating Progressives on Kiwiblog (Grief, Thedavaselinemode, RRM, Kea are a few others as equally revolting) who all push for that same old sclerotic liberal orthodoxy.

I am still looking up most of the words but it appears I have gone from a communist to a revolting progressive [an orthodox one]
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May 30, 2013 7:36pm
Kea

Redbaiter (3,142) Says:
May 30th, 2013 at 5:58 pm
Ain’t it great to see the beads of sweat dripping from the brows of the progs..

Red did you actually read the poll results ? Your conservative friends are polling at 1.9% !

The only sweat the progressives may be having is over old Winston getting nearly double that figure.

Here is a smiley face to cheer you up at bit 🙂
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May 30, 2013 7:41pm
Alan Johnstone

Much of the discussion about Epsom misses the point; Labour already has it’s own Epsom, it’s called Te Tai Tokerau. Hone won the seat, but Labour won the party vote.

Labour also won the party vote in the 3 Maori party seats. It’s not just the good people of Epsom that are smart enough to split the ticket and create an overhang.

There is already 4 brown Epsom’s.
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May 30, 2013 7:41pm
Bogusnews

Kapiti made some very relevant points which I hadn’t thought of. National has consistently blunted the worst excesses of Labour policy on numerous occasions and this might well be yet another example.

I grew up in a very poor family with 8 kids (big catholic family) and our family of 10 had an income below the official poverty level for a family of 6. Yet we never went without lunch or breakfast. Meals were absolutely nothing flash, but there was always something there.

I have been feeling very impatient with people calling on more “education” for parents. For Gods sake, haven’t they seen how chimpanzees feed their babies on the discovery channel? If a brain dead orangatan knows how to why is it so hard for humans?

This policy could have become a money hungry monster if Hone had his hands on it. So maybe JK is doing the right thing with having a very modest amount while at the same time blunting any attack by the far left. The key will be however what it grows into.
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May 31, 2013 6:28am
Sir Cullen's Sidekick

As per the latest Roy Morgan poll, Labour/Green government is inevitable in 2014. So all these discussions are meaningless. Labour/Greens will get in and rule until 2023. Then we won’t have a country to live in any way. They would have destroyed it beyond recognition.
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May 31, 2013 7:08am
rg

Hard to understand the motive this blogger has by continuing to put ACT on 0 seats. The reason we have a National ACT govt now and not a labour govt is because of the Epsom seat. The people of Epsom know that and will know that at the next election. There is no logical reason for them to not vote ACT.

The candidate has not even been announced, no Epsom poll can therefore be an accurate reflection and as I have said before pollsters are in the business of shaping public opinion not measuring it. They did that with all their inaccurate polling in Epsom before the last election. In fact no poll has ever got ACT right. It is about how you frame the question and I suggest the pollsters are up to deliberate mischief again here.
Letting polsters get away with this will bring in a Labour led govt.
Who is this pollster working for? I think we might have a Labour plant here doing its dirty work.
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May 31, 2013 8:09am
Andrew

So we’re out to shape opinion in favour of Labour now?

rg – you know, you can find out what questions are asked if you just look.
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May 31, 2013 8:19am

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