Public Polls October 2015

pollsoct15

The monthly newsletter is out:

There were two political voting in October – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.

The average of the public polls has National 19% ahead of Labour in October, up 5% from September. The current seat projection is centre-right 61 seats, centre-left 50 which would see a National-led Government.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States a good month for Clinton and Carson. Biden’s withdrawal has seen Clinton gain 12% in primary polling and Ben Carson has gained 7% to be a dominant 2nd to Trump.

In the UK Jeremy Corbyn has a net approval rating of -19% after two months in the job.

In Australia Bill Shorten appears to be in serious trouble. Malcolm Turnbull has a +35% net approval rating while Bill Shorten is on -32%. Turnbull leads Shorten as Preferred PM by 63% to 17%.

In Canada no polls since the election. The polls were quite accurate but the seat projections were not.

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The NZ poll comparison is:

  9 years ago 3 years ago 1 year ago 3 months ago Last month This month
             
National 42% 45% 44% 46% 46% 49%
Labour 40% 32% 23% 32% 32% 30%
Greens 7% 12% 18% 13% 12% 12%
NZ First 3% 6% 7% 8% 7% 8%
Nat over Labour +3% +13% +21% +14% +14% +19%
Nat over Lab/Gre -5% +1% +4% +2% +2% +7%
             
Right Direction   49% 62% 51% 58% 53%
Wrong Direction   39% 25% 33% 30% 31%
Net Direction   +10% +37% +18% +28% +22%
             
Preferred PM            
National Leader 17% 42% 43% 40% 40% 40%
Labour Leader 33% 11% 12% 8% 10% 8%
NZ First Leader 4% 6% 5% 7% 6% 8%

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