Danyl McL blogs:
I want to get down my early prediction for the 2017 election which, contra Rob Salmond, is that it won’t be close and that National will win very easily but probably won’t be able to form a government without New Zealand First. Key pointed out over the weekend that pundits always predict Peters will be the kingmaker and they’ve been wrong three elections in a row, but I think that short of a shock retirement or some other outlier that he will be this time around.
A lot can happen in two years, but what strikes me is that National and Labour are polling very close today to where they were three years ago. There doesn’t appear to have been much change in the polls except NZ First up a bit and Greens down a bit.