Guest Post: Emergency Alerting: What to learn from the Maui Wildfires and Cycline Gabrielle
A guest post by Gary Benner:
As recently highlighted, the Maui Emergency Management Agency boss Mr Andaya resigned after the debacle that saw the loss of over 100 lives. New Zealand shares a similar potential clusterF*** with respect to emergency alerting.
I was part of a team that developed a system called Tsunado that used the existing radio broadcasting network to deliver messages to a small battery powered radio, fitted with a small microprocessor to interpret commands sent over the radio network. Also included was a screen to give a short succinct message telling people what to do, and an 85db alarm similar to a smoke alarm, to get attention, one capable of waking even deep sleepers. As a radio receiver, users could hear what was going on in fuller detail.
The system was fully trialled in Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Coromandel, and even over SkyTV (with an adapter) to reach all remote areas.
In 2014 at a meeting of the heads of all 16 regional civil defence groups adopted the Tsunado system as one of their preferred methods of alerting, alongside sirens (where appropriate) and internet based tools. For convenience they made the decision to have one body, the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (MCDEM) manage the project. Unbeknown to the regional heads and ourselves, MCDEM had their own plan.
Shortly thereafter MCDEM was surprisingly taken out of the Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) and moved to the Prime Ministers department, and almost immediately, a policy change was made to use only one form of alerting, that being cell broadcasting where the mobile phone network sends our alerts to mobile phones. This is known as the Emergency Mobile Alert System or “EMAS”.
Consequently Sirens and Tsunado did not figure in their thinking any more. I do not believe it was a co-incidence that the USA had just implemented the Presidential Alerting system (some overseas phones used in NZ still title our alerts as “Presidential Alerts”). John Key had been in Hawaii, no doubt playing golf with Barack Obama, and I’m sure this “vote winner” came up in their discussions. Why else move MCDEM into his own department on his return?
Whatever there were considerable objections to having only one system of alerting, and the Maui experience has highlighted the issues with alerting:
Sirens: These make people reminisce about the London bombings and how everyone was successfully alerted to go into bomb shelters. However today’s world is very different. First there are multiple threats, and a siren, even with different tones, cannot effectively inform the public of what to do. At Maui the Emergency Management Agency boss Mr Andaya was reluctant to use the sirens, lest people think there was a tsunami and head for the hills, right into the fires. Since tsunamis were the more prevalent risk, from their perception anyway, this could have caused more deaths. Secondly our insulated homes effectively keep out sounds as well as the cold, so street based sirens are hard to hear, and do not wake many people up at night.
Emergency Mobile Alert System (EMAS): This uses the mobile network to “broadcast” an alert to every connected mobile phone, causing the phone to make a loud bleeping noise, and showing a message. This all sounds so amazing, and certainly the politicians thought that this was a vote winner. You know the line, “we’re from the Government, we’re here to help you!” Sadly this system is deeply flawed:
1. Mobile phones are often at light switched off at night, or placed in another room to charge, and removed from the person for “work life balance”. Notoriously John Key claimed “the system would even turn on phones that were turned off”. Not! Also the sound of the mobile phone is limited, and is often not able to he heard above daytime sounds (stereo, lawnmower etc). Tsunado and smoke alarms sounds at 85dB. Mobile phones are around 65db, and given the logarithmic nature of hearing and the dB scale, that is way less power, and hence ineffective.
2. EMAS alerts go to everyone in a particular region, and hence they have to go through significant curation before they are sent out. In the case of tsunamis there may only be minutes to react, and many people would be getting their alerts while they floated out to sea. So targeting of alerts is very broad, and slow.
3. EMAS alerts will fail if there is any compromise of the mobile phone and internet network that underpins it. Power is one of the first things to go in a disaster, and that was a factor in Maui. Most cell towers have only 2 – 4 hours of capacity before they require a generator to be delivered on-site. Most phones will only last 12 – 24 hours before they die, and if the local tower goes down the less, as they use more power to communicate with a distant tower. So continuing communication is less likely to happen. Fibre optic cable that cell towers use to communicate is more susceptible to damage than old style copper wires, as they found out in the Kaikoura earthquake.
Having stated all of that, the EMAS system has it’s uses, and to date it has been put to use during the pandemic, and worked with other non-critical events. However when it came to Cyclone Gabrielle, in certain areas it proved not fit for purpose.
The TSUNADO system addressed many of these deficiencies by using the device which is often called an “in-house siren”, one that can wake sleepers, and be heard above the lawnmower outside, and above most expected ambient noises. Noise-cancelling headphones may be an issue.
Alerts can be graded to three levels, possible, probable, and certain. So users can select themselves to get alerted the instant an earthquake occurs in the Kermadec Trench, that may possibly case a tsunami here, and where there is less than 45 minutes before the waves arrive on our shores. For those responsible for others, such as Rest homes, Hospitals, young families and carers of all sorts, this is a desirable feature. Better to be prepared. Also it provides for targetted alerts, so it can send separate messages to firemen, police, hospital managers and of course the CD staff themselves, who often have to be waken up. Geographical targetting can be done to almost a street level.
Most importantly the Tsunado Alert Radios continue to work for the duration. In almost all disasters in recent times, the broadcast radio network has continued to serve the public, whereas the first system to go down was the internet and mobile phones. Tsunado Alert Radios can be unplugged and taken with the individual, and operate in a low power mode to give them up to 5 days use without having to recharge. This is critical as knowing when it is safe to return home is just as important as knowing when to leave.
In light of the devastating loss of life in Maui, and the documented failings of the systems there, that are present with the very same systems currently in use here in New Zealand, and the failings during Cyclone Gabrielle, we ask that a major review is made of the current policies regarding emergency alerting, and to support a range of systems technologies, not just mobile phones, especially in regions vulnerable to fires, floods, and tsunamis.