How long will the US Supreme Court retain a conservative majority.
I asked ChatGPT when each US Supreme Court Justice is expected to die based on standard demographic data. Most will probably exceed the average as they would have above average access to healthcare. But this can give us some idea of how long the conservative majority on the US Supreme Court might remain. The expected death dates, in order, are:
- Clarence Thomas – 2030
- Samuel Alito – 2035
- John Roberts – 2040
- Sonia Sotomayor – 2042
- Elena Kagan – 2048
- Brett Kavanaugh – 2050
- Neil Gorsuch – 2052
- Ketanji Brown Jackson – 2057
- Amy Coney Barrett – 2060
So a majority is near guaranteed until at least 2035. It is unlikely that both Thomas and Alito would die in office or resign during a Democratic presidency, so in reality it is probably at least 15 years until a possible change. The three Trump nominees are likely to be there until 2050, so the GOP just needs to appoint two of the five vacancies likely to come up before then to retain a majority until 2050!