The unpopularity of UK leaders over time

This is a fascinating chart, from Putting Down The Vase. It looks at the combined favourability of the Labour and Conservative leaders. They note:

Previously, when one leader was in a rut there was usually someone else who voters liked. Major’s unpopularity in 1996 was offset by the popularity of Blair and Ashdown, Brown’s in 2009 was mitigated by the high ratings of Clegg and Cameron, etc. This is no longer the case. By way of example, in just 32 of the 476 Ipsos party leader survey questions since the start of 2011 has any leader scored a net approval rating above zero.

Of interest, this is not really the case in NZ. We don’t have the same time series of favourability ratings but in the 1990s it was pretty clear both Bolger and Clark were not popular.

For most of the period 1999 to 2017 the PM of the day tended to be popular, at least more so than the Opposition Leader was unpopular. And in 2017 both Bill English and Jacinda Ardern went into the election with +40 approval ratings. So if anything our leaders became more popular than the 1990s.

Fair to say that in the last three years, the PM and Opposition Leaders had ratings only slightly positive to slightly negative – so lower than the past. But still much much higher than in the UK where the latest Ipsos poll has:

• Starmer -66%
• Badenoch -47%

What a choice! This is why Farage will probably become the next PM despite being at -19% himself. -19% is not great but a lot better than -66%!