Those who are appalled by the fact that Judith Collins opened an office for a company her husband is a director of, will surely be appalled that the Prime Minister opened the offices of a company owned by a Cabinet’s Minister’s wife. And this wasn’t a major exporter earning money for NZ, but a boutique law firm in Auckland.

Whale Oil has the details of this terrible conflict of interest that surely will have the Leader of the Opposition calling for the Prime Minister and Minister to resign.

Light blogging until probably Thursday as I am on the Milford Track from Saturday to Wednesday. Never done it before so looking forward to it, despite that pesky cyclone turning up at the same time! The third of the nine great walks.

Jadis may do the odd guest post, and I may get  few posts done on Saturday before we head out – but basically offline from Sat am to Wed am.

The NZ Initiative does C is for Competition:

To understand competition, you should visit a tropical rainforest. To most visitors, rainforests, with their impressive fauna and flora, may look like places of abundance. The truth is quite different: the quality of the soil is often poor, and hardly any sunlight reaches the floor – scarcely the best conditions for opulent vegetation.

The reason why rainforests are nevertheless impressive ecosystems is the competition that they promote. The trees only grow so tall because they are competing for precious sunshine. Thousands of highly specialised plants, birds and insects compete for nutrients. The result is a thriving place of biodiversity.

In many ways, markets are just like rainforests. They bring together scarce resources and virtually unlimited wants. It is through competition between these different wants, and competition between different ways of satisfying them, that markets create prosperity out of scarcity.

In economic thinking, competition has two main functions. First, it spurs companies to try harder and be better than their rivals. They do so, of course, in order to make a bigger profit for themselves. As a most welcome by-product for society, products get better, new ones get invented and prices fall thanks to competition for the customers’ business.

The second function of competition is its disciplining effect. In a competitive world, you can never be too sure of your position. If a rival has a better idea or a better product, your days as a market leader are numbered. Competition is the best antidote to complacency, arrogance and laziness.

Competition is always both a discovery procedure and a tool of disempowerment. Both these functions are crucial for a market economy – but not only there.

Competition is equally desirable in many other places. Where cities compete for residents and their taxes, people will get better public services. Where teachers compete for promotion based on performance, their students will get a better education.

Unfortunately, many economists have trouble distinguishing between the results of competition and competition itself. However, the distinction should be quite easy: competition is always the rivalrous behaviour of competitors, not the number of competitors nor the prices they charge.

To promote competition, the most important things regulators can do is to just let it evolve. Competition does not need encouragement, nor does it need to be mandated. It is just what happens naturally when scarce resources meet unlimited demands. Rainforests do not need gardeners, either.

Rainforests do not need gardeners – I love it!

Next week is D for debt.

The latest data from the ASH survey of Year 10 students is encouraging.

• Only 3.2% of Year 10 students smoke daily, down from 15.6% in 1999
• Only 8.5% of Maori Year 10 students smoke daily, down from 30.3% in 1999
• Only 6.8% of Year 10 students smoke regularly, down from 28.6% in 1999
• Only 14.7% of Maori Year 10 students smoke regularly, down from 42.8% in 1999

Most Year 10 students are 15, so ideally the smoking rates should be 0%. There’s still a fair way to go, but the trend is encouraging. It’s one thing for adults to decide to smoke (fine so long aas they pay the costs of their healthcare, not me) but a very bad thing for teenagers to start smoking.

Some very biting satire from Imperator Fish:

I’ve been drawing a bit of flak for my criticism in recent days of the Green Party. I’ve now had time to reflect on my comments, and I’ve also spoken to my leader. David has reminded me that we can’t afford to take our eyes off the prize. When we fight with our political allies the only winners are National. …

I was probably out of line when I called Green Party MP Gareth Hughes a “mollyhawk”. And not just because the correct name for the bird is “mollymawk”.  I don’t have time to concern myself with matters of avian etymology, because, unlike some political parties I could name, I’m more interested in jobs and growth than in saving some stupid bird. But I accept that the analogy was an inaccurate one. The Greens have always struck me more as ostriches with their heads in the sand.

Still, I was wrong to attack a Green MP so publicly, because we all want the same thing: to get rid of John Key. That’s why I have promised David Cunliffe that there will be no more attacks on the Greens. I won’t have a bad word said about that unwashed anti-growth lentil-eating pack of luddites.

It’s too soon to tell whether a Labour-led government would include the Greens, though that’s certainly a possibility. We will have to wait and see until after the election. We may have options of forming a government with my good friend Winston, or we may decide to opt to go with a dangerous and radical party full of ideologues with lunatic ideas.  I personally don’t have a preference.

Heh.

I have nothing against either of the Green Party co-leaders, and I have worked with them in the past without difficulty. Russel Norman is almost tolerable for an Australian, and I am starting to warm to his annoying and irritating accent. Metiria seems pleasant enough as a person, even if the way she goes on about the environment fills me with rage. I would have no problem being in Cabinet with either of those idiots.

So let’s put to rest any suggestion that I have an axe to grind against the Green Party. I will work with anyone who shares my goal of kicking John Key’s government out, even if those people turn out to be economic vandals intent on destroying jobs and growth for the sake of a few dolphins. That’s why I want to assure the Green Party leadership that I’m committed to making our relationship work.

There’s part of me that almost wishes for a Labour/Greens/Winston/Hone Government, just for the sheer pleasure of seeing the fighting!

Stuff reports:

Collins today hit out at allegations by Labour MP Shane Jones that she had been living at the mansion formerly owned by failed finance director Mark Hotchin – now owned by Shi.

She said rumours mentioned today by Jones on RadioLive, that she was living at Shi’s mansion were “defamatory”.

Collins had earlier told Fairfax she and her husband had never stayed at the former Hotchin mansion. Suggestions they had stayed there while their own house was being renovated were wrong.

Jones’ comments were “hurtful”, she said today, but she would not elaborate on what the comments might have meant.

“I’m really disgusted that Shane would do that,” Collins said.

“It’s actually really hurtful. I’ve been to the home that Mr Shi has bought on many occasions because he is a close personal friend and he’s away a lot.

“But I’ve never lived there, I don’t stay there – I’ve been there, and that’s because it’s a very interesting place to go look at.

“I was really disgusted that Shane would do that. I never put the boot into Shane and yet he’s gone and done that.”

Talking to Marcus Lush this morning, Jones alluded to allegations Collins had stayed at the former Hotchin mansion for some time. …

“Grant Robertson is going to continue to dig at this. There’s all sorts of all rumours swirling, does she actually live at Paritai Drive [where the Hotchin mansion is]?

“There’s all sorts of rumours swirling around Wellington that she’s living there.”

It is quite legitimate for the Opposition to ask questions around the trip to China. No issue at all with that. The job of the opposition is to hold the Government to account.

But for a senior Labour MP to start repeating (false) rumours on radio is descending into a personal smear attack. Labour need to be very careful that they don’t over-reach on this one.

UPDATE: Jones has apologised. Good on him for that.

The Herald reports:

Auckland Mayor Len Brown has called for a funding board at the centre of a row with the Auckland Rescue Helicopter Trust to be scrapped following its recommendation to slash funding for the trust by half. …

“It is difficult for Aucklanders to make sense of a decision to cut the rescue helicopter’s funding by 70 per cent in the last five years, while increasing funding for the nine other regional organisations it funds by between 30 and 150 per cent,” the mayor said.

“I think we have to be upfront and say this funding model is not working for Auckland and it’s time that council worked with central government to fix it.”

The first step, he said, would be to work with Auckland councillors to come up with a plan to fill the $900,000 gap in the trust’s finances.

Brown’s doing the right thing here. He’s basically saying the Board is making decisions that defy common sense, and they should be abolished. Until such time the Auckland council directly will step in and restore funding to the Helicopter Trust.

Todd Muller has announced:

Muller to run for National Party BOP candidacy

Todd Muller, one of the Bay of Plenty’s most seasoned agribusiness leaders, today confirmed he is putting his name forward to contest the selection to be the next Bay of Plenty candidate for the New Zealand National Party.  Todd is currently a senior executive at Fonterra Co-operative Group.

“I am keen to return home to the Bay where I grew up, worked, married, had our family and my parents have lived for more than forty years.  With the support of local party members I know we can make a difference for all those living in the Bay of Plenty and continue the extraordinary contribution of Tony Ryall ” he says.

The Bay of Plenty offers so much, our rich natural resources, together with the talents of the people backed by the National Government’s investment in local infrastructure makes us a successful regional growth story”.

“But like all growth regions, the Bay of Plenty needs a strong and assured voice at the decision making table to meet its ongoing economic and social needs.”

Todd has a long history in the Bay of Plenty having completed his schooling there, held senior executive roles at ZESPRI and as CEO of Apata.  In the last three years, he has worked at Fonterra, most recently as Group Director, Co-operative Affairs, reporting to the Chief Executive.

Todd has been active in the National Party for over 25 years and has held positions at branch, regional and national level as well as working for Prime Minister Jim Bolger during the National Government of the 1990s.

Todd is 45, married to Michelle, and they have three children.

I’ve known Todd for around 20 years, from when he was President of the Waikato Students Union, and in the Young Nationals.

At the risk of cursing Todd, many have thought he will be Prime Minister one day. He has a great record of achievement.

In his early days, he would often get to introduce the party leader at regional conferences, and Todd would almost get a bigger standing ovation than the leader! Despite this one leader hired him, and Jim Bolger was a huge fan of Todd’s. Todd would often make the mistake of admitting he had no plans on for a particular weekend, and Mr Bolger would drag him up to the King Country for the weekend to drive around the electorate with him. Todd also had the rare ability to survive extended whisky sessions, yet still be up at 6 am!

Todd’s career post Parliament has been no less stellar.  He became a senior manager at Zespri in his early 30s and then Chief Executive of Apata, which provides post-harvest services to growers. Apata is a medium sized business with turnover around $30 million.

After Apata he went to Fonterra, and has shot up the ranks to the executive leadership team, being promoted after just 18 months to report directly to the CEO. It’s fair to say he’d be taking a massive pay drop if he becomes an MP.

Obviously Todd is not the only candidate for the Bay of Plenty nomination, but I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t win – especially as he grew up in the Bay of Plenty,got married there, and spent much of his working life there. If National can get people like Todd into their caucus, their rejuvenation while in Government programme will be very successful.

As summer retreats the songs of the local cicada population is ebbing.  This is of the distinctive green cicada kihikihi wawa  (or Amphipsalta zealandica) here. The wings are blurred as the insect is in mid-song.

They are also eaten by one of the local cats, who doesn’t seem to mind the crunchy sound they make.

Click for larger, higher res image

I’m going off the grid for the next couple of weeks also, as I’m going to back in China on Sunday. It’s another elephant conservation project.

Normally I wouldn’t blog on typos as they happen. But off memory five of the last six infographics from Labour have had errors in them. This suggests that they simply have no process in place for checking what goes out. While individual mistakes are no big deal, it is fascinating that they keep pumping them out with errors. You’d think someone would have intervened.

Hat Tip: Keeping Stock

As was inevitable, the official cash rate went up to 2.75% yesterday. Having interest rates go up makes it hard for those with mortgages and increases the cost of borrowing for businesses. But the alternative is letting inflation get out of control, which really harms people on low and fixed incomes. High inflation will not in the long term lift economic growth.

If someone has a $400,000 mortgage 25 year mortgage, then an extra 0.25% on a say interest rate sees the weekly repayments go from $594 to $608 a week. So one increase doesn’t impact a lot, but many of them will.

2.75% is still a historically very low rate. In 2008 the ocr peaked at 8.25%. An ocr of 8.25% might see mortgage rates of 11.75% which has weekly repayments at a staggering $954 a week.

Stats NZ updated the Food Price Index today and the good news is that food prices are only 0.2% higher than a year ago. In fact food prices are only 0.1% greater than two years ago. This stuff matters, as food inflation hits poor to middle income households the most.

Also fruit and vegetables prices are 5.6% lower than a year ago and remarkably 4.3% lower than even three years ago.

This is the cover of a brochure put out by the Australian Labor Party against Liberal candidate Carolyn Habib (who was born in Australia incidentially).

Some may argue it is just using her surname, but it is clear the effect they are going for with the following aspects:

• No use of her first name (Carolyn)
• The bullet-riddled crumbling wall which looks like a Middle East warzone
• The military style font

Also the reverse side doesn’t use a photo of her, but a sinister silhouette.

Very nasty stuff.

CBC reports:

The federal broadcast regulator wants the naked truth about a couple of porn channels.

The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission says AOV XXX Action Clips and AOV Maleflixxx may not be airing enough Canadian content or closed captioning.

The X-rated specialty channels are supposed to air 35 per cent Canadian programming over the broadcast year and 90 per cent of its content should have captioning.

As part of proposed licence renewals, the commission plans to hear evidence on the apparent non-compliance.

That will be a fun channel to be a captioner for!

Also I wonder how they classify content as local. Does it have to be filmed in Canada or just use Canadian “actors”?

Questions for Oral Answer.

Questions to Ministers 2.00PM-3.00PM.

1. PAUL GOLDSMITH to the Minister of Finance: What recent reports has he received on the New Zealand economy?
2. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Prime Minister: Does he have confidence in all his Ministers; if so, why?
3. SIMON O’CONNOR to the Minister of Education: What recent announcement has she made about opportunities to share education best practice with international counterparts?
4. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Justice: Does she stand by all her statements regarding her relationship with Oravida Ltd?
5. JULIE ANNE GENTER to the Minister of Transport: What percentage of the transport budget is currently being spent specifically on ensuring that children can walk or cycle to school safely, and does he consider that is adequate?
6. JONATHAN YOUNG to the Minister of Energy and Resources:How has the electricity market improved under this Government?
7. Hon ANNETTE KING to the Minister of Health: What recent reports has he received of staff shortages and the impact of such shortages, if any, in DHBs?
8. Hon Dr PITA SHARPLES to the Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment: How does the Government intend on sustaining, supporting and growing Māori-led research driven by Māori researchers with positive outcomes that support the goals and aspirations of whanau, hapu and iwi, in light of the decision by the New Zealand Royal Society not to fund Nga Pāe o te Māramatanga or any other Māori-led research organisation?
9. JACQUI DEAN to the Minister of Conservation: What progress is the Government making in implementing its “Bluegreen” plan for New Zealand?
10. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Minister of Justice: Were all her answers to questions relating to her involvement with Oravida accurate and in compliance with the Cabinet Manual?
11. MIKE SABIN to the Minister of Transport: What reports has he received on the importance of freight movement to New Zealand?
12. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister of Housing: Does he expect housing affordability to improve in the coming year?

Today Labour are asking about the Prime Minister’s confidence in Ministers, the Oravida saga, staff shortages at DHBs and housing affordability. The Greens are asking about the amount of the transport budget allocated to cycling and walking intiatives. New Zealand First is asking about the Oravida saga.

Patsy of the day goes to Jacqui Dean for Question 9: What progress is the Government making in implementing its “Bluegreen” plan for New Zealand?

Government Bills 3.00 – 6.00PM

1. Education Amendment Bill (No 2) – First Reading

2. Health and Safety Reform Bill -First Reading

The Education Amendment Bill (No 2) is being introduced into the house by the Minister of Education, Hekia Parata.  The Education Amendment Bill (No 2) (the Bill) amends the Education Act 1989. The public policy objectives of the Bill are to ensure that New Zealand’s education sector is equipped to meet the challenges and opportunities of the modern learning context; and to create a regulatory framework that promotes accountability and high standards within the education sector; and to drive continuous improvement in the education sector by clarifying, streamlining, and strengthening processes, as appropriate.

The Health and Safety Reform Bill is being introduced into the house by the Minister of Labour, Simon Bridges. This bill reforms New Zealand’s workplace health and safety system, following the work of the Independent Task force on Workplace Health and Safety and the Royal Commission on the Pike River Coal Mine Tragedy.

Stuff reports:

South Canterbury nine-year-old Sean Roberts is fighting to have New Zealand law changed, preventing tourists from driving on our roads without passing a driving test.

His motive is to save other families from the anguish he suffered after a tourist crashed into his dad, Grant Roberts, killing him, in November 2012.

The 43-year-old was on his motorbike. He was returning from the Burt Munro Challenge in Invercargill in a convoy of bikes.

They were travelling north when Roberts and Dennis Michael Pederson, 54, of Tauranga, collided with a southbound Nissan vehicle on State Highway 8, in the Lindis Pass. Both men died at the scene.

Chinese student Kejia Zheng, 20, was disqualified from driving for two years and ordered to pay $10,000 in emotional harm payments for causing the death of the two men and injuring two other people in the crash.

Zheng, who had arrived in New Zealand only the day before the crash, hit gravel on the side of the road and over-corrected, causing the crash.

It’s good to see young Sean trying to make a difference and advocate to try and prevent what happened to his family, happening again.

However I’m not sure that it would be practical to ban tourists from driving without a NZ licence. The likely impact would be a massive drop in tourists coming to NZ. We’d be the only country in the world that requires someone with a valid overseas licence, to sit an exam or test to be able to drive as a tourist.

If we did this, it is quite possible other countries would impose the same requirement on NZers.

So I understand the intent, but I don’t think a change is practical.

The bad blood between Shane Jones and the Greens continues. 3 News reports:

Labour’s attempt to muzzle its outspoken MP, Shane Jones, has lasted less than a day.

Mr Jones was told off by his leader for comparing Green MP Gareth Hughes to a screeching bird.

Today he took a shot at Green co-leader Russel Norman, saying he will not be lectured on the environment by an Australian.

Seemingly to prove he cannot be silenced, he let rip at Dr Norman, extending the anti-Australian attack he has used against Countdown to the Australian-born MP.

“I’m not going to have an Australian running the New Zealand Green Party, lecturing me about environment and economics in the north,” says Mr Jones.

And Norman hits back:

I’m not sure comparing Shane Jones to John Key is a great way to attack him. Incidentally never known the PM to be critical of migrants. I think Russel is projecting that the PM enjoys being told he must protect New Zealanders from Australian foreign investment, by someone with a thick Australian accent.

Mr Jones tried to be a team player, telling 3 News he had “to go and deal with the boredom of tax legislation”, but could not resist driving another wedge between Labour and the Greens.

“I like what David Cunliffe said on our behalf yesterday – Winston first.”

Long may the growing war between Labour and Green MPs continue.

Stuff reports:

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has backtracked on a threat to shut down Facebook and YouTube in Turkey.

Erdogan, who is fighting allegations of corruption, said last week that the government was considering steps to prevent secretly wiretapped recordings from being leaked on the internet, including shutting down Facebook and YouTube.

NZ Labour’s progressive ideas are starting to catch on globally!

Stuff reports:

State servants are facing increasing political scrutiny as some push for a seat in Parliament while hanging on to their day jobs.

The Families Commission faced accusations of “politicisation” from Opposition MPs yesterday after one of its commissioners was spotted supposedly campaigning with Prime Minister John Key.

During a parliamentary select committee hearing yesterday, Labour MP Rajen Prasad, himself a former chief families commissioner, said current commissioner Parmjeet Parmar was pushing for a spot on the National Party list and was already campaigning.

He said he had seen her with Key wearing a blue party rosette at the Pasifika Festival in Auckland during the weekend.

Parmar is a Government appointee, not a state servant. And the irony of the accusation coming from Dr Prasad who became a Labour MP in the same year as he was Chief Families Commissioner!

She said another staff member was intending to run as candidate for Labour, which he had declared to the commission. They had already discussed with him how to separate his political activities from his work.

Labour’s view is that it is only wrong for people at the Families Commission to stand for Parliament, if it is not for Labour!

The staff member who is a Labour candidate is Rob McCann, who is the White Ribbon Campaign Manager at the Families Commission. He’s not just wearing the odd rosette – he’s personally attacking Government Ministers on his Facebook page:

• “Good to see Labour tackling what has been such an intrusive and yet secretive government. Odd how Key is happy to spy on us, yet call in the police over a teapot tape.”
• “Excellent day fundraising with the Waikanae Branch of the Labour Party. All proceeds going towards giving John Key a permanent holiday in Hawaii.”

But worse of all, he is promoting a graphic attacking the very Minister in charge of the Families Commission:

I’m all for public servants being able to stand for Parliament. Tim Groser did so. But I’ve never before seen a public servant promoting graphics personally attacking the Minister in charge of the body that employs them. I suggest Mr McCann views the recent SSC video!

I note that several of his attacks on Government Ministers on his Facebook page are done during work hours, such as this one at 10.30 am last Thursday or this one on Tuesday at 11.12 am. So presumably he’s doing his attacks while at work.

The Herald reports:

A wealthy Auckland businessman was given New Zealand citizenship against official advice after a Government minister lobbied the colleague who made the decision.

The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) recommended that the citizenship application of Donghua Liu be declined on the grounds that he did not spend enough time in New Zealand or meet English language criteria.

However, one of Mr Liu’s business partners approached Mr Williamson and John Banks — the Mayor of Auckland at the time — and they wrote to the Minister of Internal Affairs, Nathan Guy, asking him to grant citizenship against the official advice.

“Invested in NZ and a lot of support”, was a file note for the case released under the Official Information Act.

Mr Guy, who is no longer the Minister of Internal Affairs, told the Herald that he made the final decision on more than 800 citizenship cases and regularly received correspondence from family and supporters of applicants.

He considered all of the evidence and said of Mr Liu’s application: “I considered at the time that, on balance, the potential benefits to New Zealand warranted the granting of citizenship.”

The official recommendation of whether citizenship should be granted was ignored in 61 of the 1011 cases between 2009 and 2011.

That’s useful to know, so around 6% go against advice.

But the 2010 case was one of several that caused concerns among DIA staff, who raised the possibility of favouritism with the Office of the Auditor-General during an inquiry into a citizenship decision made by Labour MP Shane Jones.

Mr Jones was criticised in the report last year but cleared of any corruption over his decision to grant citizenship to a wealthy businessman who had strong links to Labour. …

Electoral donation records show that Roncon Pacific Hotel Management Holdings Ltd — of which Mr Liu and Mr Goodwin are directors — made a $22,000 donation to the National Party in 2012.

Personally I don’t like a donation occurring from someone who got a favourable Government decision.  The donation was two years after the decision, and I’m not suggesting they were linked. But personally I’d discourage such a donation. However it is quite possible that until this story, National HQ were unaware that the company had a director who had received a favourable Ministerial decision on citizenship.

Mr Mottram confirmed he approached Mr Williamson and Mr Banks to support Mr Liu’s citizenship bid as he was making a very significant contribution as a businessman in Auckland, particularly in the construction industry.

“John’s support was just a matter of course because the activity was in Auckland City, he was the mayor and he was supportive of things that were good for Auckland,” said Mr Mottram.

“Obviously, if you’re the Minister of Building and Construction, you would want to promote building and construction, which we have been involved with for a long time.”

Mr Mottram said the requirements for New Zealand citizenship, which include the amount of time spent in the country and language requirements, were out of date.

“A lot of active, global businessmen are never in one place for any length of time … People who have global businesses are global citizens.”

The decision for citizenship seems justified. Unlike the other Liu case, this one is not wanted by Interpol, wanted in Australia and China, and using fake names. He seems to be entirely reputable. However a donation two years later from him isn’t a great look. However let’s look at what is and is not the same between this and the other Liu case.

The same

• A Chinese national called Liu
• A citizenship decision that was granted by the Minister against the Department’s recommendation
• Lobbying by other MPs in favour
• A donation to the party in Government

Not the same

• This Liu was not a wanted alleged criminal, who had broken the law in China and Australia and had been a permanent resident since 2005
• This Liu did not have multiple identities
• The MPs advocating on his behalf appear to have done so purely on the basis of his business contributions, not through any personal relationships or friendships such as Samuels had with the other Liu
• The Minister making the decision wasn’t lobbied time and time again by an MP – the only interventions it seems, were letters in support (which are common)
• Departmental staffers are not contradicting what the Minister said
• The donation was two years later, not before the decision was made
• This Liu was not granted his citizenship in a special ceremony in the Labour Party caucus room!

So as a certain Minister says the optics are not good, and I’m personally uncomfortable with donations being made by entities or people who have had a favourable Government decision, but this is not the Bill Liu case.

Chris Trotter writes:

UNLESS SOMETHING HUGELY DRAMATIC HAPPENS between now and polling day, 20 September, the General Election of 2014 is all but over. The National-led government of Prime Minister, John Key, looks set to be returned for a third term by a margin that may surprise many of those currently insisting that the result will be very close. What may also surprise is the sheer scale and comprehensiveness of the Left’s (especially Labour’s) electoral humiliation.

That’s a bold prediction. I don’t believe in calling a result until around 10 pm on election night 🙂

With most opinion pollsters recording three-fifths to two-thirds of voters saying the country is “heading in the right direction” it is clear that the run of generally positive news stories about the New Zealand economy are rebounding to National’s advantage. To those with secure paid employment and/or comfortable incomes, these reports offer no compelling reason for a change of government.

That is a strong factor. And worth comparing to other countries. In NZ 63% say the country is heading in the right direction, followed by 38% only in Australia, 35% in Canada, 33% in the UK and just 31% in the US.

In terms of political leadership, National is especially blessed. Most New Zealanders like John Key. In spite of his enormous wealth, he strikes a staggeringly large number of voters as an “ordinary bloke” who shares their values and understands their aspirations. His stand-up comedian’s ability to use humour as both sword and shield generally frees him from the onerous duties of detailed explanation and justification.

I’m not sure it frees him from that, but I agree most people like him, and it is amusing to come across people who not only dislike him themselves (which of course si expected) but they can’t work out how anyone anywhere can like him.

Labour’s leadership problems are the mirror-image of National’s. David Cunliffe is not yet understood or, sadly, much liked by the electorate. He simply doesn’t come across as an ordinary bloke – quite the reverse in fact – and the pollsters have yet to detect the sort of wholesale buy-in to the Opposition leader’s values and aspirations that presages a decisive shift in ideological allegiances. Neither is Cunliffe helped by his bizarre propensity to withhold politically relevant information from the public. Nothing arouses a journalist’s fury faster than a politician’s failure to supply the whole story.

Indeed, as others have also found.

Mr Key’s strategy of making haste slowly on these little things while seeking an electoral mandate for the big things (like partial privatisation) goes a long way to explaining his government’s enduring lead in the opinion polls.

It’s called taking the public with you, so change can be enduring.

All of which brings us down to the day itself.

 Month after month of favourable polls; a leader careful to build his footpaths where people walk; policies which voters either hardly notice or readily endorse; and a war-chest more than equal to the challenge of exploiting all these substantial advantages will not only have National’s supporters in a triumphant temper, but they will also have induced a profound demoralisation among their opponents.

 

Election Day 2014 – barring that big surprise – will, therefore, likely see National’s supporters marching proudly, as to a political coronation, while Labour and Green supporters, convinced they’ve already lost, deliver John Key an unparalleled National victory and the psephologists a record low turnout.

Stacey Kirk at Stuff reports:

Labour leader David Cunliffe has dismissed suggestions of a cooling in relations between his party and the Greens, saying the Greens would be the obvious first choice for Labour to strike a coalition with.

Yesterday, Cunliffe refused to say whether he would negotiate with the Greens before NZ First.

But today he appeared to back down from those statements, dismissing speculation that tension had arisen between the two allies.

Well Cunliffe not only distanced himself from the Greens, but described Winston as a good guy. That’s a great deal of enthusiasm for him. I guess he regards lying to the media, public and Parliament over his knowledge of the Owen Glenn donation doesn’t stop him being a good guy.

The backdown comes after the Greens lodged an official complaint with Labour over outspoken MP Shane Jones’ attacks on the party.

Yesterday, Cunliffe said he would work with whatever cards the voters delivered after the September 20 election.

“That may indeed quite likely be with the Greens, it may well be with Winston first … NZ First.”

But he would not say the Greens would be his first choice, saying there was “no preordained order”.

This morning, he told Firstline talking with the Greens first was the logical step, if in a position to form a Government.

The Greens are somewhat terrified that Labour will lock them out of Government if Winston demands it as the price of his support. And what could they do about it? Vote for a National-led Government? Of course not. They’d have to just swallow the butter medicine.

The reality is that it looks incredibly improbable that Labour and Greens will have enough seats by themselves to form a Government after the election. Even a bauble to Hone won’t get them over the line. They’ll need Winston and as he has the option of going with National (which the Greens do not), he has all the power.

UPDATE: And looking even worse for the Greens, as Peters says they can’t win without him and his policy is to rule them out:

Winston Peters doesn’t think a Labour/Greens coalition can win the September 20 election.

Chris Trotter thinks they can’t win also. Back to Peters:

The Greens are not going to change their policies in the next six months to appease Peters. So if he holds the balance of power, he will block the Greens from Government as a price of support for Labour.