Trotter calls it early

Chris Trotter writes:

UNLESS SOMETHING HUGELY DRAMATIC HAPPENS between now and polling day, 20 September, the General Election of 2014 is all but over. The National-led government of Prime Minister, John Key, looks set to be returned for a third term by a margin that may surprise many of those currently insisting that the result will be very close. What may also surprise is the sheer scale and comprehensiveness of the Left’s (especially Labour’s) electoral humiliation.

That’s a bold prediction. I don’t believe in calling a result until around 10 pm on election night 🙂

With most opinion pollsters recording three-fifths to two-thirds of voters saying the country is “heading in the right direction” it is clear that the run of generally positive news stories about the New Zealand economy are rebounding to National’s advantage. To those with secure paid employment and/or comfortable incomes, these reports offer no compelling reason for a change of government.

That is a strong factor. And worth comparing to other countries. In NZ 63% say the country is heading in the right direction, followed by 38% only in Australia, 35% in Canada, 33% in the UK and just 31% in the US.

In terms of political leadership, National is especially blessed. Most New Zealanders like John Key. In spite of his enormous wealth, he strikes a staggeringly large number of voters as an “ordinary bloke” who shares their values and understands their aspirations. His stand-up comedian’s ability to use humour as both sword and shield generally frees him from the onerous duties of detailed explanation and justification.

I’m not sure it frees him from that, but I agree most people like him, and it is amusing to come across people who not only dislike him themselves (which of course si expected) but they can’t work out how anyone anywhere can like him.

Labour’s leadership problems are the mirror-image of National’s. David Cunliffe is not yet understood or, sadly, much liked by the electorate. He simply doesn’t come across as an ordinary bloke – quite the reverse in fact – and the pollsters have yet to detect the sort of wholesale buy-in to the Opposition leader’s values and aspirations that presages a decisive shift in ideological allegiances. Neither is Cunliffe helped by his bizarre propensity to withhold politically relevant information from the public. Nothing arouses a journalist’s fury faster than a politician’s failure to supply the whole story.

Indeed, as others have also found.

Mr Key’s strategy of making haste slowly on these little things while seeking an electoral mandate for the big things (like partial privatisation) goes a long way to explaining his government’s enduring lead in the opinion polls.

It’s called taking the public with you, so change can be enduring.

All of which brings us down to the day itself.

 Month after month of favourable polls; a leader careful to build his footpaths where people walk; policies which voters either hardly notice or readily endorse; and a war-chest more than equal to the challenge of exploiting all these substantial advantages will not only have National’s supporters in a triumphant temper, but they will also have induced a profound demoralisation among their opponents.
 
Election Day 2014 – barring that big surprise – will, therefore, likely see National’s supporters marching proudly, as to a political coronation, while Labour and Green supporters, convinced they’ve already lost, deliver John Key an unparalleled National victory and the psephologists a record low turnout.
Again, I think this is premature but we’ll get some idea if Chris is right i the next few months.

It’s like a teen drama!

Stacey Kirk at Stuff reports:

Labour leader David Cunliffe has dismissed suggestions of a cooling in relations between his party and the Greens, saying the Greens would be the obvious first choice for Labour to strike a coalition with.

Yesterday, Cunliffe refused to say whether he would negotiate with the Greens before NZ First.

But today he appeared to back down from those statements, dismissing speculation that tension had arisen between the two allies.

Well Cunliffe not only distanced himself from the Greens, but described Winston as a good guy. That’s a great deal of enthusiasm for him. I guess he regards lying to the media, public and Parliament over his knowledge of the Owen Glenn donation doesn’t stop him being a good guy.

The backdown comes after the Greens lodged an official complaint with Labour over outspoken MP Shane Jones’ attacks on the party.

Yesterday, Cunliffe said he would work with whatever cards the voters delivered after the September 20 election.

“That may indeed quite likely be with the Greens, it may well be with Winston first … NZ First.”

But he would not say the Greens would be his first choice, saying there was “no preordained order”.

This morning, he told Firstline talking with the Greens first was the logical step, if in a position to form a Government.

The Greens are somewhat terrified that Labour will lock them out of Government if Winston demands it as the price of his support. And what could they do about it? Vote for a National-led Government? Of course not. They’d have to just swallow the butter medicine.

The reality is that it looks incredibly improbable that Labour and Greens will have enough seats by themselves to form a Government after the election. Even a bauble to Hone won’t get them over the line. They’ll need Winston and as he has the option of going with National (which the Greens do not), he has all the power.

UPDATE: And looking even worse for the Greens, as Peters says they can’t win without him and his policy is to rule them out:

Winston Peters doesn’t think a Labour/Greens coalition can win the September 20 election.

Chris Trotter thinks they can’t win also. Back to Peters:

Mr Peters says Labour’s strategists must be worried because they must know they can’t win with the Greens.

“They know full well that those two parties can’t get up in this election,” he said on Radio New Zealand.

“Some people should get their hard hats on, because together they won’t make it.”

Before the 2005 election Mr Peters ruled out working with the Greens in a coalition government, and says his position hasn’t changed since then.

But he didn’t rule it out.

“We are six months out from an election and from what we have heard thus far our position has not changed from 2005 on the Greens,” he said.

“However, they’ve got six months in which they might make changes, so you can’t rule that out.”

The Greens are not going to change their policies in the next six months to appease Peters. So if he holds the balance of power, he will block the Greens from Government as a price of support for Labour.

IT project failure

The IITP have announced:

The Institute of IT Professionals is currently undertaking significant research into the impact of software procurement on IT project failure and are asking the software community to come together and help answer this question.

The research explores what software factors and characteristics are responsible for project failure, then analyses whether different approaches to procurement in New Zealand might mitigate these factors.  The intention is to determine whether there is evidence that alternative approaches, such as non-price based procurement, would lead to more successful outcomes for software projects than the existing procurement models.

As part of this research the Institute today released a very short survey.

The survey is for those who:

  1. Have been, or currently are, involved in software development in any context or role, OR
  2. Have been involved in any way in responding to IT-related procurement or tender requests.

There are just 3 short sections with a few questions each, and many participants will only be asked some of the questions related to their own experience. If you fall into either or both of the criteria above, we’d love for you to spend 2 minutes helping contribute to this work, which may influence how procurement is undertaken in future.

You can take the survey here: www.iitp.org.nz/spsurvey

I look forward to seeing the research in due course.

Terrorism less likely

The Herald reports:

Interpol has identified the two men travelling on stolen passports on a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner.

Both were Iranians who boarded the plane at the same time.

Interpol secretary general Ronald Noble said last night the two men travelled to Malaysia on their Iranian passports, then apparently switched to the stolen Austrian and Italian documents.

He named them as Pouria Nour Mohammad Mehrdad, 19, and Delavar Syed Mohammad Reza, 29, and said information discovered about them made terrorism a less likely cause of the plane’s disappearance.

The terrorism theory weakened after Malaysian authorities determined that one of the two men was an Iranian asylum seeker.

Malaysian police chief Khalid Tan Sri told reporters the 19-year-old Iranian man was believed to be planning to enter Germany to seek asylum. He said the man was not believed to be a member of a terrorist group.

He said the young man’s mother was waiting for him in Frankfurt and had been in contact with the police. He said she contacted Malaysian authorities to inform them of her concern when her son didn’t get in touch with her.

Still not sure why the stolen passports were needed, especially as they managed to leave Iran on their Iranian passports. The mystery continues, but sort of reassuring that terrorism is less likely.  Hopefully the plane wreckage will be located in the near future.

Stuff reports:

Malaysia’s military believes it tracked a missing jetliner by radar, flying low over the Strait of Malacca, far from where it last made contact with civilian air traffic control off the country’s east coast, a military source says.

In one of the most baffling mysteries in recent aviation history, a massive search operation for the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER, now in its fourth day, has so far found no trace of the aircraft or the 239 passengers and crew.

“It changed course after Kota Bharu and took a lower altitude. It made it into the Malacca Strait,” the military official, who has been briefed on investigations, said.

The Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest shipping channels, runs along Malaysia’s west coast. The airline said on Saturday (local time) that radio and radar contact with Flight MH370 was lost off the east coast Malaysian town of Kota Bharu.

The development injects more mystery into the investigation of the disappearance of Saturday’s flight, and raises questions about why the aircraft was not transmitting signals detectable by civilian radar.

The mystery deepens.

Some tweaking for Chorus

Amy Adams announced:

Information and Communications Technology Minister Amy Adams has welcomed the agreement by Crown Fibre Holdings and Chorus on the first tranche of amendments to the companies’ Ultra-Fast Broadband contract.

Chorus has details of the changes:

  • More flexibility over deployment timing, so long as still finished by agreed completion date
  • Can use Cat 5e cabling within apartment buildings rather than fibre to each apartment
  • A charge for Greenfields reticulation to developers

The changes look relatively minor, and a pragmatic response to the funding shortfall Chorus has.

Parliament – 12th March 2014

Questions for Oral Answer – 2pm to 3pm

Questions to Ministers

  1. Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Minister of Finance: How will the expected increases in the Official Cash Rate over the coming year affect New Zealand families and businesses?
  2. JOHN HAYES to the Minister of Finance: How will the Government’s economic and fiscal policies ensure its accounts return to surplus in 2014/15 and help keep interest rates lower than during the previous economic cycle?
  3. Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by all his statements?
  4. KANWALJIT SINGH BAKSHI to the Minister of Energy and Resources: What has the Government done to improve the performance of the electricity market in New Zealand?
  5. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Justice: Did she seek advice from the Cabinet Office regarding any conflict of interest arising from her husband’s directorship of Oravida Ltd; if so, when and why?
  6. Dr JIAN YANG to the Minister for Economic Development: How is the Government making it easier, quicker and less complicated for businesses to deal with the Government?
  7. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Prime Minister: Were all his answers to questions relating to the Hon Judith Collins and Oravida checked to ensure they were true; if not, why not?
  8. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: What is the total amount of dividends that the Government has taken out of Transpower since 2011, and what is the current debt gearing ratio of Transpower?
  9. JOANNE HAYES to the Minister of Justice: What recent reports has she received on Justice sector results?
  10. HONE HARAWIRA to the Deputy Prime Minister: What more is the Government planning to do to ensure all New Zealand children have food to eat each school day in light of the recent Treasury finding that the number of children living in poverty has increased to 285,000?
  11. DAVID SHEARER to the Minister of Energy and Resources: Further to his reply to Oral Question No 9 yesterday, will he now tell me what is his Ministry’s best estimate for the percentage increase in retail electricity prices for the period 1 February to 1 August this year for a household of four persons, averaged across New Zealand?
  12. CLAUDETTE HAUITI to the Minister of Health: What recent announcement has the Government made on the Waitemata bowel screening pilot?

Today, Labour will be asking four questions to ministers on issues such as Hon Judith Collins visit to Oravida, dividends paid by Transpower to the government and electricity price increases in 2014. National will be asking five questions to ministers ranging from issues such as the economic health of the country to power price increases under the previous Labour government. In addition, questions will be asked about justice targets and funding for bowel screening in New Zealand.

Russell Norman will be asking one question about the Official Cash Rate (OCR) potential increases could hurt New Zealand families. New Zealand First will be asking one question about the Oravida visit by Hon Judith Collins and Mana will ask one question about poverty in New Zealand.

Patsy of the day

Today’s patsy of the day question goes to question 6 from Dr Jian Yang to Hon Steven Joyce asking about how the Government will be making it easier, quicker and less complicated for businesses to deal with the Government.

Budget Policy Statement – 3pm to 4pm

This debate is consisted of 12 speeches of 10 minute lengths to debate the Governments Budget Policy Statement. The Budget Policy Statement is a document that highlights what the Governments policy goals and direction are for Budget 2014 to be held on Thursday, 15 May 2014.

This report comes back to the house from the Finance and Expenditure Committee and after this debate has occurred in the house, it is then sent back to the Finance and Expenditure Committee for further consideration. The public can then make submissions to this process and the Minister for Finance is required under Parliaments standing orders to attend further committee hearings to answer questions should the committee request him too.

For further explanation of this statement, feel free to click here.

Private and Local Orders of the Day – 4pm to 6pm

  1. Tasman District Council (Validation and Recovery of Certain Rates) Bill – Hon Damien O’ Connor – Committee Stage

This bill is designed to clarify rating issues in the Tasman District during the years 2003-2004 and 2008-2009 in which they failed to apply section 23 of the Local Government Act 2002 correctly when setting rates in the region, especially in the areas of  Tata Beach and Ligar Bay in Golden Bay who have challenged the Tasman District Council over stormwater charges billed to them during these years.

At the last reading of this bill on 19th February, it was passed 119 to 1 with Mana being the only one against it.

2.  Sullivan Birth Certificate Bill – Louisa Wall – Committee Stage

The purpose of this bill is to allow for the birth details of Rowen Sullivan to to be changed to allow for both parents to be legally added to her birth certificate. Her parents were Diane Sullivan, who was a British citizen, and Doreen Margaret Shields, who was born in New Zealand. On the official birth certificate,  only Diane Sullivan was the one legally on the paperwork.Diane Sullivan became terminally ill and Doreen Margaret Shields attempted to adopt Rowen Sullivan but were blocked because the couple where not married. This bill intends to recognize both parents on the birth certificate instead of only one.

At the last reading of this bill on 19th February, it was passed without objection.

Members Order of the Day – 7.30pm to 10pm

  1. Electronic Transactions (Contract Formation) Amendment Bill – Paul Goldsmith – Committee Stage

The primary purpose of this bill is to amend the  Electronic Transactions Act 2002 to clarify when a contract is formed upon being accepted and communicated electronically between groups.  This bill adapts an already accepted rule  found in common law from the Adams v Lindsell case which finds that a contract is accepted upon posting back a signed contract to a group, to include electronic communications of contracts.

  1. Resource Management (Restricted Duration of Certain Discharge and Coastal Permits) Amendment Bill – Catherine Delahunty – Second Reading

The purpose of this Bill is to amend section 107 of the Resource Management Act, relating to granting discharge permits and coastal permits. Section 107, primary relates to discharges into our waterways and this bill attempts to amend Section 107(2)(a) which allows for discharges to water where “exceptional circumstances” justify it. Currently, this section of the Resource Management Act allows for this cause to be used for up to 35 years. This amendment would limit this to 5 years.

At the last reading for this bill on 29th August 2012, it passed 61 to 60 with National and ACT NZ objecting to this bill.

Collins apologises

Stuff reports:

Justice Minister Judith Collins has apologised for not being open about a dinner with the owners of a Chinese company associated with her husband during an official trip to China.

In a hastily arranged press conference this morning, Collins said the dinner came up in conversation with the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff Wayne Eagleson last night.

He had advised her to tell media about it. Collins said she had spoken to Prime Minister John Key about it this morning.

She said she had private dinners with the company owner and his wife many times because they were close personal friends. But she added it would have been “smarter” to have mentioned the dinner last week.

Yep. Almost best to disclose everything up front. This disclosure was still voluntary (not something discovered by others), but it keeps the story going longer than it might have otherwise.

Newstalk ZB reports:

A rare apology to the media from Judith Collins this morning.

It’s over her trip to China.

She admits she went to lunch and a dinner with Oravida bosses in Shanghai, the company her husband is a director of.

The Justice Minister has told reporters at Parliament today, that she apologises for not broadening her answers.

No doubt there will be further questions in the House today.

Gaps between election day announcements and elections

  • 1984 – 30 days
  • 1999 – 62 days
  • 2002 – 45 days
  • 2005 – 54 days
  • 2008 – 57 days
  • 2011 – 297 days
  • 2014 – 194 days

I can’t find data on what the gaps were between the date of the election being announced and the actual election day for 1987 to 1996 elections.

Does show how much more notice has been given the last two times though.

Two state elections this weekend

Two state elections this weekend in Australia – South Australia and Tasmania.

If Labor lose office in both elections then they will be out of power in every state and at the federal level. Their one hold out will be the Australian Capital Territory.

In South Australia they currently have 26 out of 44 seats.  The latest TPP poll has the Coalition 8% ahead which could see Labor lose as many as 11 seats.

In Tasmania the Liberals are on 47%, Labor 24% and Greens 18%. The current projections are Labor to go from 10 to six seats, Liberals from 10 to 14, Greens from five to four and Palmer from zero to one.

Tasmania will be especially interesting as Labor have been in power for so long there, but the Labor-Greens coalition Government became massively unpopular with voters and the backlash looks like it will be significant.

Key on flag

Some good insights from the PM on the flag issue, from his speech at Victoria University:

Back in 1965, Canada changed its flag from one that, like ours, also had the Union Jack in the corner, and replaced it with the striking symbol of modern Canada that all of us recognise and can identify today.

Fifty years on, I can’t imagine many Canadians would, if asked, choose to go back to the old flag.

I doubt there would be a single Canadian who would go back.

Long decades of sweat and effort by our sportsmen and women in many codes over countless competitions give the silver fern on a black background a distinctive and uniquely New Zealand identity, and a head start in our national consciousness.

For example, it’s our silver fern, rather than our flag, that’s etched in the crosses marking the final resting place of all New Zealanders who are interred in Commonwealth War Graves overseas.

I did not know that.

Interestingly, it’s the maple leaf that’s etched in the crosses of Canada’s fallen in those same cemeteries.  

The power of a strong symbol.

We want a design that says “New Zealand” in the same way that the maple leaf says “Canada”, or the Union Jack says “Britain,” without a word being spoken, or a bar of those countries’ anthems being heard.

We want a design that says “New Zealand,” whether it’s stitched on a Kiwi traveller’s backpack outside a bar in Croatia, on a flagpole outside the United Nations, or standing in a Wellington southerly on top of the Beehive every working day.

Exactly.

UPDATE: A reader has sent in this picture, which illustrates the point about graves:

grave

He’d make a good Mayor of Toronto!

News.com.au reports:

TREASURER Troy Buswell, 47, has suffered a mental health breakdown and has resigned from the WA Cabinet, effectively ending his political career.

Premier Colin Barnett yesterday faced an extraordinary press conference, revealing the Treasurer has suffered a “mental health’’ breakdown and had been admitted to hospital in Perth and then Sydney, where he remained for about 10 days.

This comes after he crashed his ministerial car drink driving. It’s amazing Buswell has survived this long:

January 2008: Mr Buswell admits to and apologises for an incident the previous year where he snapped the elastic bra strap of a Labor staffer.

April 2008: Mr Buswell admits he sniffed the chair of a Liberal staffer in 2005.

August 2008: Mr Buswell resigns as Liberal leader.

April 2010: Mr Buswell admits to having an affair with then Fremantle Greens MP Adele Carles. He later apologises over the affair resigns as treasurer.

February 2011: Mr Buswell, as transport minister, admits to clocking up nine speeding fines in three years.

December 2012: Mr Buswell is accused by Adele Carles of alleged inappropriate behaviour at a Christmas party the year before. Mr Buswell sues Ms Carles over the allegations but the case is later dealt with via an out-of-court settlement.

March 2014: Mr Buswell takes immediate personal leave for “health related” reasons. Reports then emerge Buswell was involved in a late-night car crash the night before he took leave.

With that track record, maybe he should move to Canada and try and stand to be Mayor of Toronto!

Brown’s advisor says Mayor toast if credit rating drops

The Herald reports:

Len Brown’s principal policy adviser James Bews-Hair says the Auckland Mayor will be “political toast” if the council’s credit rating is lowered.

In an email accidentally sent to the Herald, Mr Bews-Hair said the mayor’s office has been advised there is a risk the council’s credit rating will be downgraded.

The email was circulated to senior mayoral staff on Sunday following Herald inquiries about council debt, which has soared from $3.9 billion to a projected $7.4 billion in the first four years of Mr Brown’s mayoralty.

In a candid email to Mr Brown’s chief of staff Phil Wilson, head of communications Dan Lambert and chief press secretary Glyn Jones – and copied to the Herald – Mr Bews-Hair outlined the mayoral position on maintaining the council’s AA credit rating.

“We need to keep on using the KPI [key performance indicator] for debt that we set for ourselves in election policy – retaining our rating.

“If we do that right, that can become the basis on which we are judged.

“We are advised that there is a risk that we will be downgraded … frankly, though, if we get downgraded in an improving economic environment then we are political toast anyway,” said Mr Bews-Hair.

I’d say toast regardless of the credit rating, but that certainly would deepen the searing.

Mayor Brown, who doubles as treasurer of the Super City, has borrowed $875 million on average in his first four budgets. This is nearly three times the average annual borrowings of $355 million by the former eight councils between 1989 and 2010. Debt repayment in the current financial year is $367 million.

Borrow like there is no tomorrow.

Mr Brown has refused to talk to the Herald on debt issues.

I would have thought a Mayor would be willing to talk to their local newspaper on any civic issue.

Auckland Westpac Rescue Helicopter funding

funding-630x355

 

This graphs is very powerful. The starting point is the funding as set by Parliament, and the later years are what has happened under some local politicians.

Whale blogs:

Parliament initially said what each of the services should get – it was $1,500,000 each for the biggies, the orchestra and the rescue helicopter.

Since then, the board has cut money from the helicopter trust for its essential rescue service to give to the orchestra for new harps and pianos.

That’s right – more than $1 million has been cut from the rescue helicopter and given to the orchestra.

Now there are allegations by Murray Bolton – the chairman of the helicopter trust and all round good bloke – that members of Tizard’s dodgy funding board might have been accepting tickets to the orchestra, the festival, the theatre and the opera.

The board says it has a “gifts and inducements” policy.  The rule is that no member of the board can receive ANYTHING worth more than $150.  If they receive anything worth less than $150, the have to declare the gift or inducement.

But Tizard’s dodgy arts funding board is keeping its register of gifts and inducements secret.

They have a secret register???

Stuff reports:

The Auckland Rescue Helicopter Trust has accused the board that partly funds it of having a confidential gifts and inducements register.

Addressing a meeting of the Auckland Regional Amenities Funding Board today, trust chairman Murray Bolton suggested board members may have received free tickets from orchestra, theatre and opera businesses that they fund, and said it needed to make those gifts public.

The accusation comes in the middle of litigation by the trust against the board following big cuts in the funding the board provides the trust.

I’m against the litigation which I think is the wrong way to go. But I do think the helicopter service is quite right to make Aucklanders aware that their funding is being cut massively, with the funds going instead to the arts.

“We do not provide free helicopter joy rides for members of this funding board because ours is an essential service. We wonder if that has been our mistake.

“We wonder if free tickets to gala openings of the orchestra or the opera have been in play here.

“How is anyone to know? After all, you have refused to release your secret register of pecuniary interests. You refuse to tell us, the media, the mayor, or the people of Auckland just who it is that has been giving you gifts and why.”

Bolton said funding for the orchestra, theatre and opera businesses had increased every year while funding for the rescue helicopter had been consistently cut.

Board chairman Vern Walsh said there was no secret register for gifts.

“We can’t make something that doesn’t exist available,” he said.

So it isn’t a secret register, but instead a non-existent register! I think that is worse!

Fighting on the left

Vernon Small writes:

The Greens have lodged a formal complaint with Labour over outspoken MP Shane Jones’ attacks on the party.

They’ve complained because an MP from another party criticised them? Who is being thin skinned now?

It comes as the Northland-based list MP faced a ticking off from leader David Cunliffe this morning over his anti-Green comments as well as for straying into other MPs’ areas of responsibility.

It is understood the Green’s chief of staff Ken Spagnolo invoked the official mechanism for airing disputes with Labour’s new chief of staff Matt McCarten and it will be on the agenda of the next top level meeting between the two allies.

Good to see them focusing on the big issues. Again, imagine how they’ll be going running a Government!

Green co-leader Russel Norman said he imagined the matter would be dealt with at chief of staff level.

But he said Labour was obviously had some “internal issues” to deal with.

Just a few!

”There’s clearly some people like Shane Jones within Labour who are uncomfortable about protecting the environment and embracing our clean energy future. but … the Greens know what we are doing and why we’re here.”

Wait, isn’t this a personal attack on Shane Jones? Maybe Jones should complain also through their dispute process!

Meanwhile NewstalkZB report:

Labour leader David Cunliffe says the Greens won’t necessarily be the first cab off the rank if he’s in a position to form a Government after the election.

The translation is he’ll sacrifice them for Winston if Winston asks for it. Poor Greens – 18 years in Parliament and no baubles for them.

There was another oops in David Cunliffe’s life earlier this morning when he referred to his possible coalition partner New Zealand First as ‘Winston First’.

“Winston’s a good guy but I’m not doing coalition negotiations before the vote and we will work with whatever cards the voters put on the table. That may indeed quite likely will be with the Greens, it may well be with Winston First.”

I’m very pleased to see the official Kiwiblog term for New Zealand First catching on!!

A conscience vote in the UK on euthanasia

The Telegraph reports:

The legislation of assisted suicide has moved a significant step closer after the Government made clear that it would not stand in the way of a change in the law.

Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs and peers – including Coalition ministers – will be given a free vote on a Bill that would enable doctors to help terminally ill patients to die, The Telegraph can disclose.

That will be a fascinating vote. There will be MPs in all parties both for and against.

Under the 1961 Suicide Act, it remains a criminal offence carrying up to 14 years in jail to help someone to take their own life.

Four years ago, the Director of Public Prosecutions issued guidelines that made clear that anyone who assisted a loved one to die while “acting out of compassion” was unlikely to be charged. Since then, around 90 such cases have been examined and no one prosecuted.

So there is a de facto legalisation. It is appropriate the law reflect the reality.

A Bill drawn up by Lord Falconer, a former Labour lord chancellor, to legalise “assisted dying” – allowing doctors to prescribe a lethal dose of drugs to terminally-ill patients – is before the House of Lords. Peers are expected to vote on the plans in the next four months.

If the Bill is supported there, it will then pass to the Commons where some MPs say they have detected growing support for the move – influenced by opinion polls suggesting that up to three quarters of the public would support a change in the law.

A 2010 poll found 82% in favour and just 13% opposed.

Observers in Parliament estimate that just over a third of MPs would back a change in the law, a smaller group is strongly opposed, and up to 40 per cent are undecided.

I think a change to allow euthanasia for terminally ill people in pain would gain the support of most MPs in the NZ Parliament.

Herald on revealing CVs

The Herald editorial:

The law is not always an ass but it can produce an absurdity. The decision of the Human Rights Review Tribunal to make a company disclose to a failed job applicant the CVs and reference checks of others going for a job is an example.

The aggrieved party complained to the tribunal that he was discriminated against on the basis of age. He wants to see the credentials of others who applied or succeeded in the process. Under the court system’s rules of “discovery”, which the tribunal adopts, all information pertinent to an action needs to be handed over from the defendant to the plaintiff. The tribunal has dismissed an application from the company involved, Alpine Energy, to block that discovery under a section of the Evidence Act which covers confidentiality.

So Alpine and its recruitment agency must give the man the information it has on the successful candidate and those who contested and lost. This would include not only names, applications and CVs (although the tribunal and the failed job-seeker have agreed it need not include addresses and contact details) but also reference and perhaps security checks.

A pretty appalling decision. You apply in confidence for a job. Revealing that you applied could endanger your current job. Also very unappealing forcing a company to justify why it didn’t employ someone. Employment decisions are often somewhat subjective – how well they interviewed, whether or not they would fit into the team culture, whether their CV had typos in it etc.

Parliament Today 11 March 2014

Questions for Oral Answer.

Questions to Ministers 2.00PM-3.00PM

  1. Hon DAVID CUNLIFFE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his statement that “for most New Zealanders an indicator of how well the economy is doing is whether or not they can keep up with the cost of living”?
  2. Hon KATE WILKINSON to the Minister of Finance: What will be the focus of the Government’s economic programme going into the election on 20 September?
  3. Rt Hon WINSTON PETERS to the Prime Minister: Does he have confidence in all his Ministers; if so, why?
  4. Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his Government’s policies?
  5. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister of Housing: Does he believe the Government is making it easier for young people in the regions to buy their first home?
  6. IAN McKELVIE to the Minister for Economic Development:What recent reports has he received on the manufacturing sector?
  7. EUGENIE SAGE to the Minister for the Environment: Will she strengthen the proposed water quality national objectives for human health so that New Zealanders can safely swim in our rivers?
  8. CHRIS AUCHINVOLE to the Minister of Labour: What recent progress has the Government made on health and safety reform in New Zealand?
  9. DAVID SHEARER to the Minister of Energy and Resources: What is his Ministry’s best estimate for the percentage increase in retail electricity prices for the period 1 February to 1 August this year for a household of four persons, averaged across New Zealand?
  10. Dr PAUL HUTCHISON to the Minister of Health: What investment is the Government making in improving health services in West Auckland?
  11. CATHERINE DELAHUNTY to the Minister for the Environment: Does she think that companies should be allowed to pollute our rivers for an unlimited amount of time using section 107(2) of the Resource Management Act 1991, or does she think that the use of “exceptional circumstances” should be time limited?
  12. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Justice: Did she note her visit to the Shanghai offices of Oravida Limited in her report to Cabinet on her Ministerial visit to China in October 2013; if not, why not?

Today Labour are asking about the economy, first home buyers, electricity prices, and Judith Collins’ visit to a Chinese milk factory.The Greens are asking about government policies, water quality of rivers, and about river quality as it relates to the resource management act. New Zealand First is asking whether the PM has confidence in all his Ministers.

Patsy Question of the day goes to Chris Auchinvole for Question 8: What recent progress has the Government made on health and safety reform in New Zealand?

Government Bills 3.00PM-6.00PM and 7.30PM-10.00PM.

1. Electoral Amendment Bill – Committee Stage

2. Families Commission Amendment Bill – Committee Stage

3. Border Processing (Trade Single Window and Duties) Bill – Committee Stage

The Electoral Amendment Bill is being guided through the house by the Minister of Justice, Judith Collins. This bill proposes amendments to the Electoral Act 1993 to implement recommendations made by the Justice and Electoral Committee in its Inquiry into the 2011 General Election. The purpose of the amendments is to improve services to voters, candidates, and political parties.

The Families Commission Amendment Bill is being guided through the house by the Minister of  Social Development, Paula Bennett. This bill amends the Families Commission Act 2003 to restructure the Commission so that it comprises a single Families Commissioner and other members, amends some functions of the Commission and provides for the appointment of a Social Science Experts Panel to provide academic peer review and guidance.

The Border Processing (Trade Single Window and Duties) Bill is being guided through the house by the Minister of  Customs, Maurice Williamson. This bill proposes amendments to support the implementation of the Trade Single Window component of the Joint Border Management System.

Key flags flag debate for next term

The PM has announced:

Prime Minister John Key today outlined a plan to hold a public discussion and vote next parliamentary term on New Zealand’s flag.

In a speech at Victoria University today, Mr Key said it was his belief that the design of the current flag symbolises a colonial and post-colonial era whose time has passed.

“I am proposing that we take one more step in the evolution of modern New Zealand by acknowledging our independence through a new flag,” he says.

He outlined a plan for a cross-party group of MPs to recommend the best referenda process, and a steering group to ensure the public has the opportunity to engage in discussion on the flag and to submit design ideas.

“It’s really important that consideration of a new flag includes genuine input from New Zealanders.  All voices need an opportunity to be heard,” he says.

“A flag that unites all New Zealanders should be selected by all New Zealanders.  This decision is bigger than party politics.”

Mr Key says that should he have the privilege of remaining Prime Minister after the general election in September, he would write to leaders of all political parties represented in Parliament asking them to nominate an MP to join a cross-party group to oversee the flag consideration process.

The group would recommend the best referenda process to follow, and also be involved in nominating New Zealanders from outside Parliament to form a steering group which would be primarily responsible for ensuring the public has the opportunity to engage in the debate.

“One of the tasks of that steering group will be to seek submissions from the public on flag designs.

“I would like to see the referenda process completed during the next Parliamentary term, so it does not intrude on the 2017 elections.”

This is a sensible pragmatic way forward. There isn’t enough time for a referendum with this election, and there was a risk that people would say Key is using the flag issue as a distraction. By saying he would seek a referendum or referenda during the next term, he indicates commitment to letting people decide the issue for themselves through a referendum – but not at the expense of overshadowing other issues.

In terms of a process, my preference is:

  1. Cross-party group selects steering group
  2. Steering group calls for designs
  3. Steering group short-lists designs
  4. Steering group selects four possible alternative designs to to voted on. Maybe have an option that people could petition to have another design added to the ballot, if they think a worthy one has been missed out.
  5. An initial referendum where people vote on the alternative design – preferably with a ranked ballot paper of preferences.
  6. The alternative design that gets over 50% support after preferences goes to a second referendum
  7. A final binding referendum with a simple binary choice between the current NZ flag and the alternative design

A bad bet to lose

The Herald reports:

A Dunedin man has changed his name to the longest legally allowed, after apparently losing a bet five years ago.

The 22-year-old man from Normanby is now legally known as ‘Full Metal Havok More Sexy N Intelligent Than Spock And All The Superheroes Combined With Frostnova’ – just one character shy of Department of Internal Affairs’ (DIA) 100 character limit.

A message on an online body building forum, written by someone describing themselves as a friend of the man, said the name change was the result of a lost poker bet and the man realised his drunken consequences only when his passport expired.

Oh he is going to have such fun travelling on that name!

Jones v Hughes

Stuff reports:

Labour economic development spokesman Shane Jones has taken a swipe at the Greens, calling ocean spokesman Gareth Hughes a “mollyhawk” for comments Jones says “undermine” the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

A hearing began today to consider an application by Trans-Tasman Resources (TTR) to mine iron ore from the seabed off the west coast of the North Island. …

The Greens also called for a moratorium on all seabed mining until it was proved “unequivocally safe”.

A standard impossible to meet. They also I presume call for a ban on cars until they also are proved “unequivocally safe”.

Jones used an interview on Radio Waatea today to take a swing at Labour’s potential coalition partner, saying its activist stance was inappropriate for a government-in-waiting.

“Minerals and exploration is an essential part of the economy and the process shouldn’t be undermined by political commentary,” he said.

“There’s a standard to be observed between parliamentary figures and state bodies.

“I’ve been warned not to crisscross the Commerce Commission investigation, if it’s good enough for me as the Labour economic development spokesman, then it’s good enough for Gareth Hughes.”

The EPA was also independent from the Government, and Jones said governments-in-waiting needed to observe constitutional proprieties.

Hughes’ contributions were unhelpful, and “carrying on like a mollyhawk” would not achieve anything, he said.

A mollyhawk is a type of gull. I’m not sure quite what Jones is trying to call Hughes by calling him one.

One way to lift turnout!

Stuff reports:

With no one else on the ballot, state media has reported that supreme leader Kim Jong-un was not only elected to the highest legislative body in North Korea, but he won with the unanimous approval of his district, which had 100 percent turnout. 

That’s up from 99% turnout! I guess the threat of execution if you don’t vote was effective!

Key election dates

  1. Fri 20 June – regulated period begins
  2. Thu 31 July – House rises
  3. Thu 14 August – Parliament dissolved
  4. Wed 20 August – Writ Day
  5. Tue 26 August – Nominations close
  6. Sat 20 September – Election Day
  7. Sat 4 October – Final results declared
  8. Thu 9 October – Return of the Writ
  9. Mon 20 November – latest day for Parliament to meet and a Government effectively to be formed
  10. Mon 9 October 2017 – 51st Parliament dissolves
  11. Sat 18 November 2017 – latest date for next general election

There are 13 sitting weeks of the House to go before it rises.

UPDATE: The start of the regulated period is when the spending caps start for parties and candidates, and also when Parliament moves to tighter spending rules and MPs and parliamentary parties are less able to use their parliamentary budgets for advertising and publications.