The Herald reports:

New Zealand’s prison population continues to grow despite record-low crime rates and an ambitious Government strategy to cut reoffending.

The number of prisoners has grown steadily over the past 15 years at a rate well above New Zealand’s population growth.

Figures obtained under the Official Information Act show the National-led Government has slowed that trend, but the rate of imprisonment remains stubborn.

After a rare dip in the prison population in 2011/12, the total number of inmates rose again in the year to June 2013.

First of all, the latest stats are for September 2013 which has 8,474 prisoners compared to 8,597 in June. Not sure why one would not use the most recent stats. The stats are on the Corrections website – don’t need the OIA.

But even on June stats, the statement is wrong. June 2013 had 8,597 prisoners and June 2012 was 8,616. That is a small decrease, not a rise.

On the latest stats, we are 8,474 compared to 8,623 in Sep 2012.

The Fairfax gallery team make 20 predictions for 2014:

1. National will get a lift in the polls early in the year as the economic news gets better.

2. John Key will reshuffle his Cabinet lineup in the first two months of 2014.

3. At least one of the Green MPs will step down before the general election.

4. Two of Labour’s “old guard” will go on the list to give themselves the option of quitting after the election without triggering a by-election.

Jones is one of them. I presume they mean list only. Not sure who the other will be.

5. Brendan Horan, Eric Roy and John Hayes will not be MPs by the end of the year.

6. Irrespective of the election result, David Cunliffe will stay on as Labour leader.

That’s a big call, and I would’t predict that.

7. The Genesis Energy sale will go ahead, but for the election campaign National will call it a day on the partial privatisation programme.

That’s not a prediction. National said some months ago there were no more planned.

8. Conservative leader Colin Craig will stand in the East Coast Bays seat, his party will get into Parliament but will not cross the 5 per cent threshold.

Agree they will make it.

9. The economy will start flagging late in 2014 as rising interest rates start to bite.

10. The brawl between Judith Collins and Steven Joyce over who will inherit John Key’s crown will heat up as the election approaches.

11. Mr Key will give the thumbs up to talks with all of National’s potential allies: ACT, the Conservatives, the Maori Party and UnitedFuture. But he will make it clear NZ First will be his last cab off the rank if he is in a position to form a Government.

Key may rule them out again, as he did in 2008 and 2011.

12. The Maori Party will win two seats at the election.

I said at least two. If they get 2% party vote they get a third seat.

13. Mr Key will visit the White House and host a high-profile return visit.

14. ACT will not get more than 1.5 per cent of the vote.

That high?

15. New Zealand’s push for a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council will be successful.

I predicted the other way.

16. A senior member of David Cunliffe’s office will quit.

Statistically likely

17. Housing will be one of the most contentious themes of the year, prompting National to announce further measures to help low-income and first-home buyers.

18. There will be upsets in the seats of Napier, Mt Roskill, Te Tai Hauauru, Ohariu and Maungakiekie.

19. The election will be held in October.

20. National will form a Government with at least two other parties.

Another big call. I like that they are willing to make predictions. Would be fun if other gallery teams did the same, and one could judge them all at year end!

I went on Christmas Eve, and here are my thoughts.  See my
review of Hobbit 1 also published on Kiwiblog.
http://conzervative.wordpress.com/2012/12/30/review-the-hobbit-1-2012/

This second instalment in The Hobbit trilogy opens with a
delightful cameo of Peter Jackson. So, we get this
out-of-the-way from the get go. A pub patron steps out of a
Bree Inn, bites a carrot in half, and stumps off in to the
rain drenched muddy alley way of Bree main street. Tick.

The elves in Hob 2 are much darker, more threatening than
before, even more than Hugo Weaving’s excellent ‘Agent
Smith’ Elrond from LoTR I-III. We see them in context,
as a race, pruning orcs from their borders and having warred
with the dwarves and Sauron.  We also catch a glimpse of
their gracious tragic arrogance. Lee Pace’s King Thranduil
is one of the stand out performances of this episode. The
elves too, this outing, seem to have liquid eyes (Mirkwood
Gucci) and more close-ups to enthrall and allure us in
contrast to the comical dwarves (of which more below).We
also get a lot more of Legolas’ back story, his relational
context, and the new character Tauriel introduces a love
triangle conflict with one of the dwarves. This is added by
Jackson (absent in Tolkien). Legolas is ennobled in this
tale and the elf-dwarf humour is back. There is a lovely
scene where he denigrates a dwarf passport drawing, “Is
this one of your hideous dwarf women?” “Noo. That’s
may wee bairn, Gimli.”  Legolas’ eyebrow twerks.

Jackson absolutely blew me away with Hobbit 1 which exceeded
my expectations as a long-time Tolkien buff.  So first,
some brick bats.

1. Hob 2 starts off lightly.  It comes across too
cartoonie, like the Disney-esque Radagast the Brown wizard
in instalment 1 which almost went over the line with the
rabbit sleigh (back this time too). Radagast is played by
Sylvester McLoy (Dr Who 7) a kind of Catweazel Worzel
Gummage figure with birds nesting in his hair.

2. Hob 2 is a bit disjointed, with cut-aways and flash backs
(especially Gandalf’s role in this movie) as Jackson seeks
to link this trilogy with LoTR (The Hobbit was written first
before LoTR was conceived). Fortunately the film is
redeemed in the second half by the drama with Smaug. But
you are aware of an episodic feel to Hobbit 2.

3. The barrels scenes with the dwarves escaping the elven
halls is ridiculous.  It is Tintin gymnastics to the
extreme, with Legolas doing those fanciful circ du
soleil Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon somersaults and
skateboard tricks.  Quite how the barrels stayed upright
with heavy dwarves in them in white water must have been a
miracle of the Valar.  It was silly and demeaned the
characters; bordering on Disney kids holiday rollicking.
Perhaps Jackson was attempting to capture something of the
children’s storybook nature of The Hobbit, which Lord of
the Rings is not.  But he recovers well.

4. Bilbo is also rather pale in this movie. He is almost a
second tier character beside Thorin, Bard, Smaug and the
Orcs. It is called The Hobbit after all. I’m not so sure
Martin Freedman was the best option as Bilbo. I wish Leo
McKern was still alive (Rumpole of the Bailey) either as
Bilbo or Thorin.

5. Mayor of Laketown played by Stephen Fry was a
disappointment, a bit like Barry Humphries as the Goblin
King in Hob 1. Fry is such a good actor (he was brilliant as
Oscar Wilde) but was off-key in this role.  It would have
been better if he played Lord Melchett.  Badly cast, a
lack-lustre performance and a missed opportunity.

6. There is ridiculous physics and timing in this film, like
when the dwarves somehow erect a massive moulded dwarf, fill
it with liquid gold, and then pull it apart in an attempt to
drown Smaug.  MacGyver on steroids. I would have cut that
out of the film altogether as too Indianna Jones and the
Temple of Doom.

7. Sorry, but I hate Bombur. He looks like Obelix with a
pleated beard and clashes with several of the dwarves,
especially Thorin, who are presented as gorgeous
metrosexuals, while others have the knobbly noses and stumpy
feet we expect of fantasy dwarves. They feel like two
different races.

Now the good bits.

There is a wonderful, dangerous, dark character in this
episode, and that is the bear-of-a-man Beorn the
skin-changer.  Jackson really captures the man, wild eyed,
slightly unpredictable, anchored in history. His makeup is
amazing.  Not too much, but enough to suggest the
Wildlands. I won’t show him to you, you have to go see the
movie for that. A highlight of Hob 2.

In Mirkwood there is a wonderful extended scene reminiscent
of the human-eating bugs in King Kong. Bilbo slays the
Spiders with the help of the Ring and saves the dwarves.
This is masterful, and even exceeds the book, Jackson at
his best.  I loved when Bilbo slips the ring on, and we
can hear the Spiders’ language. We also discover why Bilbo
and Frodo’s elven blade is so-named.

Jackson does some great linkages between Hobbit and LoTR,
establishing the origins of the Black Riders, and visually
linking Sauron’s form to the All Seeing Eye. He also
develops the personality of the ring itself. There is a
great wizard duel between Gandalf and Sauron at Dol Guldur.

Laketown is amazing.  Jackson portrays this once grand
place, now decrepit beneath the shadow of Smaug’s Lonely
Mountain as truly Tolkien-esque without too many
similarities to medieval Britain. The model makers deserve
an Academy for Laketown.

Thorin Oakenshield is fleshed out more deeply and we are
beginning to become torn by his heroic melancholy and his
corrupting greed for the gold and kingship. I personally
think the actor (Richard Armitage) is too pretty. A
knobbly ugly war-scarred dwarf is how I imagined Thorin
Oakenshield.  But his duel with Smaug, calling him a
flabby worm (as Tolkien does) is fantastic, as they duel
verbally for psychological rights to be “King Under the
Mountain.” Thorin is certainly brave.

A poignant moment when Thorin finally steps in to the halls
of Erebor beneath the Lonely Mountain. Here I think we catch
the obvious allusion to the Jews, and I’ve written on
whether Tolkien was allegorizing Jewish history in the
dwarves before.

The orcs Azog and his mongrel son Bolg are great, reminding
me of Satan and Son of Satan in Constantine. They grunt and
conspire their way through this movie. We also get much more
of the Wargs.

Smaug (pronounced SmOWg) is simply magnificent and exactly
how Tolkien portrayed him in my mind. He is malevolent,
dangerous beyond measure, and this is the most intimidating
portrayal of the majesty and weapon-of-mass-destruction
Dragon ever seen.  Smaug, spoken by Timothy Benedict
Cumberpatch, totally redeems the movie.  The second half
is fabulous with a long fight scene between Smaug, the
dwarves under the Lonely Mountain all the while with Bilbo
trying to burgle the sacred Arkenstone.  But Smaug is on
to him.

It is delightful seeing the Scrooge McDuck vaults times one
hundred, filled with gold and somewhere under it all, a
sleeping dragon.  Bilbo steps out tenderly as if walking
on egg shells, but gold booty is so NOISEY.  It slides and
rattles. GASP.  “If there’s one thing ya do laddie, don’t
waken it!”

The movie ends well, with Smaug flying off into the evening
sky with the hopelessly vulnerable Laketown below about to
be nuked by this jealous, angry psychopathic arrogant
ballistic missile with wings. Bilbo and the dwarves look
helplessly on; what have they awoken?  But Bard, already
well scripted by Jackson and team as an isolated outcast
whose grandfather failed to kill the dragon, has one family
heirloom black arrow left, and knows where the dwarven wind
lance is.  Queue Hobbit 3 and a day for Men! But first, a
roasting…

Great closing music.

All-in-all a dutiful middle piece to the trilogy.  Smaug
lifts it. 8/10.

Would have been incredible to be in Queenstown yesterday to see the match against the West Indies. Anderson and Ryder played incredibly and they achieved the fastest and 6th fastest centuries in cricket. 131 not out off 47 balls was spectacular.

Forgot to run these last year, but can do a catch up and open nominations now.  Nominations are open (in comments) for the following:

• 2013 Press Gallery Journalist of the Year
• 2013 Minor Party MP of the Year.
• 2013 National MP of the Year. 
• 2013 Labour MP of the Year.
• 2013 MP of the Year.

The winners in 2012 were Rodney Hide, Russel Norman, Chris Finlayson, David Cunliffe and Russel Norman.

I’ll keep nominations open for a few days, and then open voting once I have closed nominations. Nominate away.

Rich Wisken writes to Jetstar over a recent flight:

Dear Jetstar,

Do you like riddles? I do, that’s why I’m starting this letter with one. What weighs more than a Suzuki Swift, less than a Hummer and smells like the decaying anus of a deceased homeless man? No idea? How about, what measures food portions in kilograms and has the personal hygiene of a French prostitute? Still nothing? Right, one more try. What’s fat as fuck, stinks like shit and should be forced to purchase two seats on a Jetstar flight? That’s right, it’s the man I sat next to under on my flight from Perth to Sydney yesterday.

As I boarded the plane, I mentally high-fived myself for paying the additional $25 for an emergency seat. I was imagining all that extra room, when I was suddenly distracted by what appeared to be an infant hippopotamus located halfway down the aisle. As I got closer, I was relieved to see that it wasn’t a dangerous semi-aquatic African mammal, but a morbidly obese human being. However, this relief was short-lived when I realised that my seat was located somewhere underneath him. …

Pinned to my seat by a fleshy boulder, I started preparing for a 127 Hours-like escape. Thankfully though, the beast moved slightly to his left, which allowed me to stand up, walk to the back of the plane and politely ask the cabin crew to be seated elsewhere. I didn’t catch the names of the three flight attendants, but for the purpose of this letter, I’ll call them: Chatty 1, Chatty 2 and Giggly (I’ve given them all the same surname – Couldnotgiveashit). After my request, Chatty 1 and Chatty 2 continued their conversation, presumably about how shit they are at their jobs, and Giggly, well, she just giggled. I then asked if I could sit in one of the six vacant seats at the back of the aircraft, to whichGiggly responded, “hehehe, they’re for crew only, hehehe”. I think Giggly may be suffering from some form of mental impairment.

I tried to relocate myself without the assistance of the Couldnotgiveashit triplets, but unfortunately everyone with a row to themselves was now lying down. It was then I realised that my fate was sealed. I made my way back to Jabba the Hutt and spent the remainder of the flight smothered in side-boob and cellulite, taking shallow breaths to avoid noxious gas poisoning. Just before landing, I revisited the back of the plane to use the toilet. You could imagine my surprise when I saw both “crew only” rows occupied by non-crew members. I can only assume Giggly let them sit there after she forgot who she was and why she’s flying on a big, shiny metal thing in the sky.

If there were vacant seats, appalling that they didn’t move him.

Waikato River Trail

EveryTrail – Find hiking trails in California and beyond

Had a lovely day doing around 26 kms of Waikato River Trails. My longest distance on a bike since school. Lots of fun. Want to work myself up to be able to do 75 kms or so in a go.

• 3,458 posts (+4.8% from 2012)
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Thanks to all the readers who visited in 2013. Great to have a 21% increase in visits.

The Halberg nominations:

Sportsman of the Year: Aaron Gate (cycling), Andrew Nicholson (equestrian), Kieran Read (rugby), Scott Dixon (motorsport)

I’d say Dixon most likely to win. A great year for Read, but more difficult to win as an individual in a team sport.

Sportswoman of the Year: Lauren Boyle (swimming), Lisa Carrington (canoeing), Lydia Ko (golf), Valerie Adams (athletics)

I think it has to be Ko. Golf is so much more universally competitive. To be No 4 in the world in golf is huge.

Team of the Year: All Blacks (rugby), Black Sox (softball), Men’s Pair Hamish Bond and Eric Murray (rowing), Women’s 470 – Jo Aleh and Polly Powrie (yachting) and Men’s 49er Class Team – Peter Burling and Blair Tuke (yachting)

A perfect year for the All Blacks makes them hard to beat.

Coach of the Year: Eddie Kohlhase (softball), Guy Wilson (golf), Nathan Handley (yachting), Steve Hansen (rugby)

Hansen probably, but possibly Kohlhase.

Disabled Sportsperson of the Year: David Monk (blind bowling), Mary Fisher (para swimming), Mike Johnson (para shooting), Sophie Pascoe (para swimming)

Pascoe has won it so often, probably someone else?

Emerging Talent: Ella Williams (surfing), Gabrielle Fa’amausili (swimming), Jake Lewis (motorcycling), Tom Murray (rowing)

No real idea, but Williams is making waves (yes, pun)

And for the overall award, hard to pick but maybe the All Blacks?

Fairfax score their 2013 predictions:

1 At an annual salary of almost $145,000 plus allowances, Brendan Horan will continue to believe he is needed in the House and will tough out the criticisms and stay on in Parliament – unless the police intervene. 10/10. With a backdated pay rise before Christmas, this is a prediction with legs for 2014.

Rarely lose if you predict an MP will hang on!

2 Official interest rates will end the year no higher than they started it at 2.5 per cent, and if the Reserve Bank moves at all it will be to cut the OCR. 10/10. Predictions vary as to when the bank will move in 2014, with March the new favourite. But it flatlined in 2013.

It’s been 2.5% since March 2011, so a fairly safe and accurate prediction.

3 David Shearer will win unanimous support for his leadership from his caucus in the February vote, and remain safe from any serious challenge throughout the year. 0/10. As wrong as a wrong thing. No-one knows for sure how the vote went, but unanimous it wasn’t. Neither does jumping before you are pushed qualify as “safe from a serious challenge”.

I thought he would stay also.

4 Aaron Gilmore will return to Parliament and be joined by a least one other replacement list MP – though Gilmore will make no better an impression in 2013 than first time around. 9/10. We were simply too kind. One mark off because we did not pick how much worse he could be. The luckless Mr Gilmore out-did his own bad press as he came and went in just a few months. 

Could mark lower for not predicting he would go, but to be fair no one did.

5 Arise Sir Lockwood Smith. The former Speaker will be knighted in the Queen’s Birthday honours. 10/10. A bit like putting a dollar on the All Blacks to beat Japan, but on the money all the same.

As inevitable as the sun rise.

6 Hekia Parata will remain in Cabinet but lose the education portfolio. 3/10. We were holding our breath when the OECD figures showed New Zealand’s rankings plummeting but John Key held his nerve and she not only kept her seat at the top table, she kept the education role too.

Most of the plummeting is for kids who had their primary education under the last Government.

7 Labour will rewrite its list selection rules to give the regions and the unions less power, but not without a major controversy. 6/10. They rewrote the rules along those lines, but we failed to pick the major controversy would be around gender quotas and the late-but-unlamented “man ban”.

I’m not at all sure the new rules give unions less power.

8 National will fail to find a cross party “consensus” on changes to the MMP rules, but Opposition parties will pledge to implement the main Electoral Commission recommendations if they win power. 7.5/10. Sure enough Justice Minister Judith Collins used the “no consensus” line to justify no change, but the Opposition has not waited for the election but is rallying behind Iain Lees-Galloway’s member’s bill.

I’d score that one 10/10

9 The referendum opposing the sale of state assets will get the numbers and go ahead in October. But the partial sale of Mighty River Power will go ahead, after the Maori court challenge over water rights fails. The Government will also sell shares in Meridian and Genesis in 2013.7/10. The referendum went ahead (but in November) and the Government did sell three of its planned partial privatisations, although it opted for Air NZ ahead of Genesis after the share market developed indigestion over energy shares.

I never thought Genesis would go ahead in 2013. I believe Solid Energy would have, if it had not near collapsed.

10 John Key will make international headlines again for a gaffe to rival the Beckham putdown, but he will resist the urge to become a full time talkback host. 2.5/10. 

No gaffe, gov’r

11 Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples will bow to pressure and give up the co-leadership, opening the way for Te Ururoa Flavell. But Dr Sharples will not relinquish his portfolios. On the button! It’s a shame they don’t give more than10/10.

A good call.

12 Maurice Williamson and one other minister will announce they will not stand for re-election in 2014. 4/10. Come on Maurice – don’t keep us waiting! Oh, all right then, stay. Chris Tremain did surprise everyone with his decision to call politics quits. Kate Wilkinson and Phil Heatley were pushed out of Cabinet and have joined the exodus.

Keep watching – but maybe not for Maurice!

13 A new Right-wing party will emerge, offering to fill the need for an ally for National. But National will be less than enthusiastic. 6/10. There are a number of contenders including the 1Law4All Party that recently pamphlet-bombed some suburbs with policies that hark back to Don Brash’s Orewa speech. There is also a rumoured ACT-like party in the wings, but so far National only has eyes for its existing allies – and Colin Craig’s Conservatives.

A bit generous there. The party cited is a fringe party that will make no impact. Unless they have a significant leader or funding base, hardly counts.

14 The Government will launch the year with a major economic policy promising to boost job numbers and make employment its top priority. 9/10. It made the promises all right, with a John Key speech launching a big push on apprenticeships. Forests also gave their all for a series of glossy “business growth agenda” booklets. But did anyone notice?

Safe prediction that the Government will focus on jobs.

15 A minister will resign over allegations surrounding events that emerge from the past. 10/10. ACT leader and minister John Banks quit after he was hauled into court to defend his disclosure of donations during his campaign for the Auckland mayoralty.

Possibly a bit generous there. The resignation was not over events that emerged from his past. The events were well known in 2012.

16 As a consolation for missing out on the speakership, National list MP Tau Henare will be offered a diplomatic post in the Pacific. 3/10. Sure enough he missed out to new Speaker David Carter and was apparently sounded out on whether he was angling for a post, but it seems no formal offer was made.

His Excellency Tau Henare – has a ring to it 🙂

17 The Greens will not top 15 per cent in any major poll in 2013. 9.5/10. The third party’s support has held up remarkably well during the year, but it only hit 15 per cent once – in the volatile Roy Morgan survey – and never bettered its target mark. So we are claiming vindication by a nose.

More recently Labour seem to be taking support from them.

18 Andrew Little and David Clark will be promoted to the Labour top 12 and Nanaia Mahuta will not hold the prime responsibility for education by year’s end. 6.5/10. Two out of three aint bad. Ms Mahuta gave way to Chris Hipkins in education. He hung on despite being on the wrong side of the leadership spill. David Clark did scrape into the top 12, before being demoted after the change at the top. Mr Little is still waiting . . .

Cunliffe demoted Clark to 20. still unsure why.

19 Growth will fall short of Treasury’s pick of 2.3 per cent in the year to March but the economic mandarins will be closer to the mark on unemployment, which will be near their 6.9 per cent forecast. 0/10. Don’t take investment advice from us (or Treasury). Growth actually bettered Treasury’s forecast reaching 2.7 per cent in the March year, while unemployment fell to a surprisingly low 6.2 per cent – though there was some questioning of the data.

A good one to be wrong on.

20 David Bain will be paid some compensation, even though a second review will be more ambivalent about his innocence – but he will get less than $1 million. 0/10. We are still awaiting the final outcome.

A new review will start once the judicial review action by Bain is dealt with.

Their overall score was 133/200. Not bad.

Blackland PR has assessed what it says were the 20 toughest PR gigs in 2013. They rates them out of 10 for profile, emotion and complexity. The top 20 are:

1. NZ Police – Roastbusters – 28
2. Fonterra – Botulism Recall – 26
3. John Key – GCSB – 23
4. MPI – Snapper – 22
5. Treasury – Asset Sales – 21
6. EQC – Privacy Breach – 21
7. Waikato DHB – Fluoride – 20
8. NZ Post – Service Changes – 20
9. Len Brown – Affair – 20
10. Banks – LVRs – 20
11. NZOG – Pike River – 19
12. Air NZ – Rejected tattoo – 19
13. Insurers – Insurance changes – 18
14. Anadarko – oil drilling – 18
15. Chorus – Fair Fees – 18
16. Aaron Gilmore – Restaurant Fracas – 15
17. Skycity – Convention Centre – 14
18. NZ Cricket – ICC Investigation – 14
19. Water Safety NZ – Life Jackets – 12
20. Tourism NZ – 100% Pure – 11

Any missing from the list?

The 2013 road toll is 254 dead, an 18% drop on 2012. This is the 2nd largest percentage drop since 1974. The largest was in 2011 when it dropped 24%.

As you can see the road toll is at a 60 year low. It peaked in 1973 at 843 and then dropped to 554 in 1979. After that it increased again to 795 in 1987. Since then it has generally been declining.

When you measure it per 10,000 vehicles, the trend is stark.

Here’s my 20 political predictions for 2014:

1. Colin Craig will be a Member of Parliament by the end of 2014
2. The election will be held in October 2014
3. Genesis Energy will be sold by May 2014
4. There will be two new Ministers before the election
5. At least one electorate Labour MP will be successfully challenged for their party’s nomination (or will withdraw before the vote)
6. At least two more National MPs will announce they will retire before the election
7. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2014
8. The 2014 Budget will project a surplus of between $100 million and $250 million for 2014/15.
9. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council
10. At least two Green MPs will be ranked outside the top 15 on the Green list
11. The Maori Party will have at least two MPs after the election
12. Len Brown will go
13. Hone Harawira will attend less than half the House sitting days in 2014
14. National will campaign on tax cuts and Labour on tax increases
15. Jamie Whyte will be elected the Leader of ACT and candidate for Epsom, but ACT will not make it back to Parliament
16. Peter Dunne will be re-elected MP for Ohariu
17. NZ First will have fewer MPs after the election, than they got in 2011
18. A prominent journalist will stand as a candidate for the Kim Dotcom Party
19. National will both gain and lose electorate seats at the election
20. After the 2014 election, Parliament will be at least 38% female, up from 34%

Lindsay Mitchell blogs on 10 positive trends in NZ:

1. A 20% drop in assaults on Police (due to tasers)
2. A 35% drop in Sudden Infant Deaths
3. A 17% drop in recorded crime
4. A 25% drop in the smoking rate
5. A drop in the teenage birth rate since 2008
6. A drop in the abortion rate for last five years
7. A 60 year low road toll
8. A long-term drop in the child mortality rate
9. A 23% drop in the Maori male suicide rate
10. A 10% drop in the rheumatic rate among children

I could add on stuff such as a huge drop in the number of 13 to 18 year olds who drink alcohol.

A fascinating column by Bob Jones on the failed socialist experiment of “New Australia”. Go read it.

New Australia was a socialist settlement in Paraguay founded by 238 Australians. It was to be a utopian society based on communist principles.

It was of course a total failure, and split and then dissolved.

Personally I think it is a great idea. Why don’t we gift some island to all those unionists who desperately want a socialist or communist utopia, and let them establish one. I’ve got no objection to them, so long as I’m not forced to fund it.

The official list is here. The top gongs are:

DNZM

To be Dames Companion of the said Order:

Ms Trelise Pamela Cooper, MNZM, of Auckland. For services to fashion and the community.

Mrs Alison Mae Paterson, CNZM, QSO, of Auckland. For services to business.

KNZM

To be Knights Companion of the said Order:

Dr Noble Thomson Curtis, of Rotorua. For services to Māori education.

Archbishop David John Moxon, of Rome, Italy. For services to the Anglican Church.

Mr Robert John Parker, of Christchurch. For services to local body affairs and the community.

Mr Peter James Vela, ONZM, of Hamilton. For services to the thoroughbred industry.

Dame Trelise is well known. Dame Alison is not a household name but is a highly regarded businesswoman, profiled by the Listener here. Name Chairperson of the Year in 2011 by Management Magazine, she has been a Director of numerous companies.

Sir Toby has spent a lifetime in Maori education as a teacher, then teacher of teachers.

Sir David is basically the global Anglican “ambassador” to the Catholic Church.

Sir Bob needs no introduction.

Sir Peter is profiled here in 2008, with his brother. They have extensive fishing and racing interests.

Some other high profile honours are:

• Karen Walker, CNZM
• John Reid, CNZM
• Eleanor Catton, MNZM

On 24 December 2012 I made 20 predictions for 2013, emulating the annual Fairfax tradition. My predictions and how I scored them were:

1. At least two state owned power companies will have successful partial floats. – 1 (MRP and Meridian floated)
2. Tracey Martin will be elected/anointed Deputy Leader of NZ First. – 1 (occurred a couple of months ago)
3. Holly Walker’s Lobbying Disclosure Bill will not be passed into law in 2013, even if amended. – 1 (killed off near unanimously)
4. There will be at least three new Ministers by the end of 2013 (new being not Ministers today). – 1 (Nikki Kaye, Michael Woodhouse, Nick Smith)
5. Louisa Wall’s marriage bill will pass into law by June 2013, with at least 75 votes at third reading. – 1 (77 votes in April)
6. David Shearer will demote at least two front-benchers to the backbenches. -1 (Street and Mahuta in February)
7. David Carter will be elected Speaker of the House, but it will not be a unanimous vote. -1 (Elected 62 to 52 over Mallard)
8. Paul Foster-Bell will become an MP in 2013. – 1 (May 28)
9. The 2013 census will see two new general seats and one new Maori seat. – 0 (only one general seat and no Maori seat)
10. David Cunliffe will not be rehabilitated and remain off the front bench. – 0 (I could argue a half mark as he wasn’t rehabilitated, he was voted in by unions and members, not caucus)
11. An MP will get engaged and a different one will get pregnant. – 1/2 (Holly Walker announced pregnancy in May, unaware of any engagement)
12. Current or former Members of Parliament will contest both the Wellington and Auckland Mayoralties. – 0
13. David Clark’s Mondayisation Bill will pass 61 votes to 60 at 3rd reading. – 1 (passed 61 – 60 on 17 April)
14. During the year at least three National MPs will announce they will retire at the 2014 election. – 1 (I would score this higher if I could – eight retirements announced so far)
15. Over the year, National will on average of all public polls, poll higher than Labour and Greens combined but not Labour, Greens and NZ First. – 1 (On averaged National 1% higher than Lab/Gre but 3% below Lab/Gre/NZF)
16. Brendan Horan will not be an MP by the end of 2013. – 0 (here to stay!)
17. The 2013 Budget will project a small surplus for 2014/15. – 1 ($75m is as small as it gets!)
18. NZ will not win the election for the UN Security Council, as too many countries think we are part of Australia who have just got elected. – 1/2 (not decided until September 2014)
19. Winston will get thrown out of the House by the new Speaker. – 0 (I thought he had been, but can’t find a reference to it)
20. The thresholds for parliamentary representation will remain unchanged at 5% party vote or 1 electorate seat. – 1

So overall I score myself 14/20. Happy with that.

UPDATE: An MP did get engaged in 2013, but they also got unengaged later. However I still score that as a 1/2 so my score goes up to 14.5/20.

The Herald reports:

Political journalist Guyon Espiner has been announced as Geoff Robinson’s replacement on Radio New Zealand’s Morning Report.

Robinson announced his retirement on-air in November, after more than 30 years in journalism.

Espiner has a 20 year career in journalism, working in both print and broadcast media.

He has previously held roles as the political editor for Television New Zealand and, earlier, the Sunday Star Times.

More recently he has worked as an anchor and journalist on TV3’s 3rd Degree and The Vote.

Espiner will begin presenting Morning Report in April.

I think this is an excellent appointment. Espiner is a formidable interviewer, and has a good breadth of knowledge on politics and current affairs.

What is unknown is how he will gel with Simon Mercep, but I don’t see any major difficulties there.

The Herald reports:

Nearly three-quarters of New Zealanders feel that the Roast Busters case showed high school students needed to be taught about respectful attitudes to sex, not just the mechanics of sexual intercourse.

Sex education and rape prevention came into the spotlight in October amid allegations against Auckland teenagers who boasted on the internet about having sex with drunk and underage girls.

A Herald-DigiPoll survey showed 74.7 per cent of respondents believed high schools should teach more than the physical and medical aspects of sex and also emphasise respect for sexual partners.

I’m not sure that is a role for high schools. While I think sex education should be more than purely physical and medical, I think attitudes of respect have to come from parents. If they don’t get the right values from their family, then schools won’t be able to do much.

Conservative Party leader Colin Craig said parents should be responsible for teaching kids about sexuality, but there needed to be an institutional backup if parents failed.

That’s a pretty sound view.

The Herald reports:

Police seized more than $1 million after three men were stopped at Auckland International Airport with bundles of cash strapped to their bodies.

Customs’ officers noticed the three Japanese were walking unusually when they arrived at the airport and found each had around US$150,000 taped to his stomach and legs.

If $100 bills, then that is 1,500 bills each.

The cash was seized and charges of failing to declare cash and importing a prohibited good were laid against Yoshiaki Tanaka, his son Yusuke Tanaka and the unrelated Minoru Tanaka. All three were bailed to a hotel in downtown Auckland and will appear in the Manukau District Court next month.

The police also investigated New Zealand bank accounts in the names of three men and have frozen another $484,700.

Of that, $441,232 was from a US foreign currency account. The Herald understands the men flew to Hawaii and deposited cash in a bank, which was then transferred to an ASB account in New Zealand, shortly before they arriving in Auckland last month.

Interesting. Some money being transferred in legitimately, and some smuggled in.

The restraining order application by the police alleges there are “reasonable grounds to believe the property is tainted property” and that the defendants “have unlawfully benefited from significant criminal activity”.

On behalf of the three men, David Jones, QC, has filed an opposition to the forfeiture application, saying the $1,081,196 was not “tainted property” but was acquired legitimately and is the property of a third party.

If it was legitimate, why was it strapped to their bodies? Good try.

Stuff reports:

A Kapiti Coast primary school has decided to switch off wi-fi in its junior classrooms after a survey of parents revealed concerns about radiation exposure.

Damon Wyman, a parent of two children at Te Horo School, sparked the survey when he started researching the effects of wi-fi after his 10-year-old son Ethan died of a brain tumour. In the past two weeks, scientists and experts from around the world have flooded Mr Wyman with advice and shared their concerns.

However, the ministries of education and health have expressed confidence that wi-fi is safe to use in schools.

Te Horo School board of trustees chairman Steve Joss said the school had consulted widely, and the decision to turn off wi-fi in the junior classrooms was not about safety. “We don’t have concerns about safety with the wi-fi, but we received enough feedback from parents not wanting it in the junior school that we decided to switch it off.”

One can only feel sympathy and huge sadness for the loss of Ethan Wyman. But sadly kids have been getting cancer since long long before wi-fi was invented.

Turning off wi-fi because some parents want you to, is like teaching creationism as science because some parents want you to.

I wonder how many of those parents have home wi-fi networks?