Claire Trevett at NZ Herald reports:

There are signs some MPs are looking at an exit in the next term by standing as list-only candidates. That has become a stepping stone to retirement, allowing an MP to leave during the term without the resultant hassle and cost of a by-election.

Annette King is understood to be one of those, opening up her very safe Labour Rongotai seat. One obvious replacement in Rongotai is Andrew Little, at present a list MP. But another possibility is Helen Kelly, the head of the Council of Trade Unions, who has been rather coy about her intentions in 2014. A dead-cert ticket to Parliament will be hard to resist.

Labour badly needs more professional unionists in Parliament, as they are appallingy under-represented.

As well as King, Shane Jones opted against running in Tamaki Makaurau again. That is possibly because of the likelihood he would actually win it in 2014 given Pita Sharples’ retirement and Jones’ own rising star. Sticking to the list gives him the flexibility to leave rather than sit through another term in Opposition.

I hadn’t seen this reported before. This is good news for the Maori Party who are more likely to retain it if Jones is not standing.

Stuff reports:

A preacher whose “patients” claim his prayers can heal cancer is bringing a team of evangelists to Wellington to pray for the sick.

But health authorities are warning people to approach healing claims made by evangelist Bill Subritzky with “extreme caution” ahead of his prayer meeting at Sacred Heart Cathedral in Thorndon next week.

Oh, I might pop in. I don’t need healing or anything, but maybe he could pray for me to be 15 centimetres taller?

Fliers distributed to Wellington households titled “Jesus Christ saves and heals” contain testimonies from Mr Subritzky’s followers telling of miraculous recoveries from cancer, kidney failure and arthritis. “I had kidney failure and was instantly healed after Bill prayed for me,” one says.

The former Auckland lawyer, who also asserts he can exorcise demons, has been an evangelist for more than 40 years.

According to his website, “untold tens of thousands have experienced major physical healings as well as deliverance from evil spirits”.

I’ve got an idea. Why not have him spend a month at Mary Potter Hospice praying to cure their cancers, and at the end of the month check how many have had their cancer go away?

Last night, Mr Subritzky said he did not see himself as a healer, but instead introduced people to the “healing power of the Holy Spirit”.

“I have been doing this for 40 years. If it was not genuine, the Catholic Church wouldn’t allow me on to the premises.

Yeah.

The Press reports:

Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee has signalled he is losing confidence in the Earthquake Commission (EQC)’s chief executive, demanding a “full inquiry” into how disgruntled homeowners were excluded from satisfaction surveys.

The issue arose after EQC critic and homeowner advocate Bryan Staples provided The Press with a document which appeared to show a system whereby EQC earmarked dissatisfied customers to leave them out of potential survey pools.

Brownlee yesterday told reporters at Parliament he was “quite annoyed” not to have been given information about the exclusions sooner.

The disclosure followed an Auditor-General’s report this week which quoted an EQC survey saying 80 per cent of homeowners were satisfied with the Canterbury home repair process.

Brownlee later said EQC was doing “pretty well” and yesterday stood by the comment.

Asked what level of confidence he had in EQC chief executive Ian Simpson, Brownlee refused to comment, but made it clear that confidence was at stake.

“It’s one of those things that I think goes to the heart of confidence and I’m very, very annoyed about it,” he said.

“I’ve asked the State Services Commissioner to conduct a full inquiry and he’ll be reporting to me in the next couple of days about how that’s going to be progressed.”

 An inquiry is warranted. The integrity of the sample is crucial to the reliability of a poll or survey. The exclusion of those who were recorded as being in a dispute with EQC means that the survey results were not representative.

What will be crucial is whether the report disclosed the sampling method, and the fact some home owners were excluded.

Stuff reports:

Yasser Arafat’s widow first cried murder as her husband lay dying in 2004. Nine years later, she has raised her voice once more, accusing someone from the Palestinian leader’s own inner circle of poisoning him.

The allegation, fuelled by the findings of Swiss forensic experts, has been met by stony silence from Arafat’s political heirs, who have long maintained that Israel was responsible for the mysterious illness that killed the Palestinian president.

Suha Arafat’s charge, broadcast around the Arab world, has reawakened old controversies in the Palestinian Authority, which always viewed his widow – a French-educated Christian convert to Islam who was 34 years his junior – as a liability.

I tend to agree with Mrs Arafat that this was probably an inside job. Israel had nothing to gain from killing Arafat at that late stage of his life. They’d be a more logical suspect if it had happened 20 years earlier.

Maybe the over one billion dollars in embezzled funds was a motive?

It is not certain he was poisoned. As I understand it, the evidence is consistent with poisoning, but not conclusive.

James Weir at Stuff reports:

The economy will grow almost 4 per cent next year, helped along by a strong population gain from surging immigration, according to Westpac Bank’s latest predictions.

The bank has upgraded its forecasts for this year slightly to 2.8 per cent, followed by growth of 3.8 per cent next year.

The economy had moved beyond the recovery phase and into solid expansion this year, despite the brief but intense drought last summer. 

It was set for a big burst in the second half of this year, with a “remarkably swift” turnaround in milk production in the last few months. 

At times like this I recall how the Green Party climate change policy is to shoot around one in five cows. Okay they don’t literally say shoot, but they clearly say they want a reduction in the number of cows.

That meant growth was shaping up to be well above 1 per cent for the September quarter, Westpac says in its latest Economic Overview.

Hiring intentions have also risen as companies become more confident and Westpac is forecasting unemployment to fall to 5 per cent by the end of next year.

That would be great.

Job prospects in New Zealand and Australia are the key driver of migration. As the job market softens in Australia as the mining investment boom passes its peak, more New Zealanders are coming home and fewer are leaving for Australia, Westpac says.

A double win.

Pondered whether to put up one of my many spider pics this morning, but I think we’ll stick to tamer subjects.

Here’s a bit of local scenery from a recent jaunt down the West Coast. Hence the rain 🙂

Click for larger, higher res image

The ODT editorial:

The suggestion KiwiAssure will be run by Kiwibank is not sensible.

The success of Kiwibank will be put at risk by tacking on an insurance company with a domestic focus.

Voters only have to look at the downfall of AMI, a Christchurch-based insurance company which substantially undervalued its reinsurance obligations and ended up with the Government – and taxpayers – having to step in to bail it out.

Of course, a government bail-out is exactly what will happen to KiwiAssure if it does not spread its reassurance risks widely.

Reinsurance for a totally-owned government-controlled insurance company will be expensive.

There can be no discounted policies on offer; it does not make sense. …

Kiwibank appeals to loyal New Zealanders who like the idea of investing their money where it will be used for the benefit of fellow Kiwis in obtaining mortgages, extending businesses and generally contributing to economic growth.

There is no such incentive for taxpayers in owning an insurance company.

Political parties do not have a good history of being in business.

New Zealand Post is the latest state-owned entity to run into problems, even though it is propped up by Kiwibank.

Appointing Kiwibank to prop up an insurance company is the wrong option.

Forcing Kiwibank to set up a full insurance company is daft and damn risky. We already have 92 insurance companies in New Zealand.

Gemma Gracewood has tweeted:

A pair of brilliant women decide which photo to make public… @EleanorCatton @lordemusic @sonjayelich #nyc pic.twitter.com/XUTAtFVXKT

— Gemma Gracewood (@gemmagracewood) November 6, 2013

And then the official photo:

…And the Official Photo (by mum) pic.twitter.com/8OyapntsNN

— Gemma Gracewood (@gemmagracewood) November 6, 2013

Very cool.

Matthew Hooton lets loose to Willie and JT about their previous shows on the Roast Busters. He gets thrown out.

Well done Matthew. Making excuses for the men involved on the basis of where they live or how the girls dressed is just wrong. The girls were 13. That is the end of it.

Matthew has Facebooked:

 I don’t want to be all moralistic about this, because I have behaved terribly from time to time.

But I have two daughters, aged 6 and 8. I hope not, but I expect that if they follow the example of their parents they will behave appallingly when they are teens. I expect they will dress in ways I find reprehensible, hang out with friends I disapprove of, and might get shamefully pissed at what was meant to be a wholesome 15th birthday party.

To some extent, this will be my fault for not being as a good a parent as I should be. 

However, when my 14 year-old girls do behave badly, I expect that any 17 year-old men nearby will, at worst, ignore them or, at best, look after them and get them home safely.

My daughters are entitled to rebel and behave badly, without being raped.

That is the point.

The Dom Post reported:

An umemployed serial litigant will not get his dole back while he continues to shun paid work, despite challenging the decision in the High Court.

Benjamin Easton, 53, was stripped of his three-and-a-half-year unemployment benefit in February 2010 after telling The Dominion Post he was voluntarily on the dole and wasn’t looking for work.

He had “sacrificed” his career to take up “social issues”, he said at the time.

Mr Easton’s campaigns have included fathers’ rights, the Manners Mall bus route, and the Occupy Wellington demonstration.

After his comments were published, Mr Easton was stripped of his benefit payments, but challenged the decision in the High Court, with his case heard on June 24.

On Thursday, Justice Jill Mallon released her decision, denying a reinstatement of the dole.

“The ministry’s decision to cancel Mr Easton’s unemployment benefit on 25 February was lawful. Voluntary activities undertaken for the benefit of the community do not qualify as fulltime employment,” the decision said.

“Mr Easton has a long involvement in court proceedings and other activities, motivated by his beliefs about certain social issues.

“Mr Easton believes he is uniquely placed to bring to the court’s attention significant improprieties and corruption . . . Mr Easton contends he has always worked.

“[But] the legislation does not provide an unemployment benefit for people who are engaged in these activities. That is so no matter how sincere and committed a person is to the causes they pursue and how diligently and relentlessly that person pursues them.”

But Mr Easton contends his litigation and activism are in the public interest – and insists he should be paid for his services. “The public owe me. I work for the public. The public interest is that I’m remunerated for that work. That’s logical,” he said yesterday.

 No it isn’t. If Mr Easton wants to be paid for his advocacy then he should stand for Parliament or the Council and get elected. But he can’t declare himself a public representative and demand we fund him. Also thousands of us manage to hold down paid employment and do advocacy and community activities.

Easton is also in the news again today:

Activist Benjamin Easton reached the end of the line over his sledgehammer protest in the Wellington CBD when he was jailed for not doing the original sentence.

Wellington District Court judge Bill Hastings warned Easton at the start of the hearing yesterday that it was the day he would be sentenced. Easton has had multiple remands for a number of reason, including an unsuccessful appeal to the Supreme Court.

In 2011, Easton, 53, was given 80 hours community work by Judge Bruce Davidson after being found guilty on two charges of endangering public safety and disorderly behaviour.  

Easton did only five hours. Community Probation applied to have him resentenced.

Judge Hastings said Easton did not accept his guilt and was unlikely to comply with any community sentence.

”Which leaves me with little option,’ he told Easton yesterday.

He jailed him for two months.

Easton had wanted either a conviction and discharge or to be found not guilty.  

And I want to live in a castle. You don’t always get what you want. Easton seems to think not only should the public be forced to fund him, but also he is above the law. He isn’t.

The Government announced:

The Government is proposing increased transparency, simplified compliance, changes to anti-dumping duties and tariff concessions to bring down the cost of home building materials, Housing Minister Dr Nick Smith and Commerce Minister Craig Foss announced today.

“Building materials costs are too high and can be as much as 30 per cent more in New Zealand than in Australia according to the Productivity Commission. The industry needs a shake-up through increased competition and greater transparency to ensure kiwi families can get access to more fairly priced building materials and homes,” Dr Smith says

“Our market study has flushed out some very real issues in the building materials industry. I worry that high duties on some imported building products, combined with limited competition in New Zealand is allowing excessive margins by building product manufacturers. I also have concerns over a lack of transparency for consumers over what benefits builders are getting from using certain products,” Dr Smith says.

The options paper is here. Some of the options include:

• Reform of BRANZ governance
• Prevent specification of “no substitutes”
• Require disclosure of financial and other benefits
• Limit continuation of anti-dumping duties

I’m all for disclosure and lower tariffs.

Waimakariri MP Kate Wilkinson and Ohariu based List MP Katrina Shanks have both announced today they will retire from Parliament at the next election.

Kate deserves our thanks for taking Waimakariri off Clayton Cosgrove, and hopefully her successor can keep it. She also did some very good work in her former portfolios such as industrial relations.

Katrina has been a very hard working local MP in Wellington, and had to endure several campaigns against Charles Chauvel, which could get pretty nasty. She’s also well respected for her work last term as a select committee chair.

Kate entered Parliament in 2005 and Katrina in 2007. Their decisions to retire show that National is serious about continual renewal, and this is a real contrast to Labour where they have their MPs who entered Parliament in the 1980s still insisting they will never ever retire.

Renewal offers opportunities for National, but also challenges. Obviously both Kate and Katrina and female, and National needs to be pro-active about recruiting and supporting talented women to stand for Parliament. I don’t mean there should be quotas or guarantees of selections etc. I mean that National will benefit from having as many great candidate to choose from as possible – but you can’t just wait for people to come forward – you need to also go out and find them.

So far six National MPs have said they will retire in 2014 and rumour has it there could be anywhere from another one to six. These are not retirements because they think National will lose (the current public polls have been pretty good for National), but because they are accepting that you come in, make a good contribution, and then give someone else a turn.

A significant factor in whether National gets further terms will be its ability to rejuvenate. It is generally harder to do it in Government, than in Opposition. The fact that Labour appears to be doing almost no rejuvenation this election, and National is doing a significant amount, is encouraging.

Two interesting articles in the Herald. The first:

Prime Minister John Key has admitted he had to be persuaded to back off his bid to press the Reserve Bank into exempting first-home buyers from the banks’ new rules on loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) by Finance Minister Bill English.

Mr Key went into bat very publicly for an exemption for first-home buyers in June, during the bank’s consultation period on LVRs, which limit low-deposit or no-deposit mortgages by retail banks.

At the time he said he didn’t want the LVR to work for a “bunch of rich people and lock out a whole lot of first-home buyers.”

But in a joint interview with Mr English this week – marking five years in power for the National-led Government – he indicated that Mr English thought taking on the independent bank would be more trouble than it was worth.

“So I took a step back from that and said ‘yeah, okay, well fine’. That’s the way it goes.”

There is a line between advocating and directing. It is important the Reserve Bank is independent. Sadly Labour proposes ending that independence.

Mr Key also admitted he had been very reluctant at first to raise GST in 2010 but was persuaded fairly quickly about its merits.

“I’d be the first to admit I was a bit nervous about raising GST thinking can you actually politically sell all of that,” he said.

“Actually after we did all the modelling and we worked on it together, we were absolutely convinced it was fair and would actually work and it would deliver the sort of policy outcomes we wanted. And actually it’s definitely delivering results for the economy.”

The pair said they did not have arguments or rows.

Mr Key said the measure of any decent relationship was that you worked your way through all sorts of issues and respected each other’s views.

They are a hugely effective team.

Mr English made much of what he described as Mr Key’s instinctive ability to communicate with the public and maintain its support, and knowing how to set boundaries in terms of policy constraints.

They cited the example of state tenants’ entitlements.

Mr Key said successive Ministers of Housing and Housing officials had wanted the income that any state tenant received from boarders to be received to be counted as income in terms of calculating entitlements.

“But my view is well that would be seen as a step too far for large families or families that are trying really hard to make ends meet.

“And in the end if they are prepared to go the extra mile of having someone live in their home and cook them a meal, they are just good New Zealanders trying to get ahead.

“It’s like the carparking [dumped fringe benefit tax] issue.

“In the perfection of the IRD officials, we should have carried on with putting an FBT on those carparks – but that’s how you lose the public,” he said.

Mr Key also indicated that he had put constraints on labour market reforms.

You don’t get to implement much policy in Opposition. You fight the good fight on issues worth it such as the GST tax trade-off and the partial asset sales, but why take a hit on relatively minor issues such as FBT on car parks. No one will thank you in 20 years time for that one.

A second article looks at the John and Bill team:

The lingering question is how this pairing has avoided the pitfalls which have seen governments paralysed when the two pockets of power have stopped trusting one another and started undermining one another.

Told, the Herald wants to focus on their partnership before and after National was returned to power in 2008, Key turns and looks at English and exclaims “Okay, love” and laughs. English replies in typically droll fashion: “As a loyal deputy, I can assure you, it is not a partnership.” He means not that sort of partnership.

The humour, however, has an edge which leaves the listener wondering just how well the two men actually get along.

Very well, because they both understand which job they have, and Bill is not seeking a promotion (and in fact has ruled out ever standing for the leadership).

English’s tentacles certainly extend way beyond the confines of his finance portfolio. He was the one pushing hard for meaningful welfare reform. He has basically overseen the big changes in the housing of the poor. He keeps a watching brief on the public service and its adoption of new methods of delivering services. Given the almost-universal involvement of the Treasury in any reform, however, it is par for the course that the finance minister is involved.

Bill is constantly thinking about how to improve the performance of the Government as a whole. He has dozens of little pet projects on the go at any times ranging from championing open data to some funds for small local councils to do anti-truancy measures.

Bill on John:

• “(John) has more ideas than we know how to handle. My framework is a bit more conventional so I spend a lot of time just dealing with issues in a reasonably predictable way but the PM is always stretching the boundaries.”

• “He’s endlessly capable of everything, I assure you – catching fish, cooking pasta, making up policy, being friends with the Queen. There is nothing this man can’t do.”

John on Bill:

• “They are quite complementary skills. I do a lot of going around the country opening things and cutting ribbons and being the kind of face of the party that’s interacting with the public. And Bill is doing a lot of the long term thinking, heavy-lifting and policy design, all the things that involve ministers … I’m kind of the retail face.”

I wonder how David Cunliffe and Russel Norman or David Parker will work together, if they become Government.

Questions for Oral Answer.

Questions to Ministers 2.00 PM – 3.00 PM.

1. DENIS O’ROURKE to the Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery: Is he satisfied with progress on all aspects of the Canterbury earthquake recovery?
2. JACINDA ARDERN to the Minister of Police: Does she have confidence in the Police investigation of alleged sexual violation against young women and underage girls in West Auckland?
3. PAUL GOLDSMITH to the Minister of Finance: What progress has the National-led Government made in building a more productive and competitive economy capable of supporting more jobs and higher incomes for New Zealanders?
4. METIRIA TUREI to the Minister of Police: When was she first advised that Police had received a complaint from a girl who alleged she had been raped by members of a group calling themselves the Roast Busters?
5. Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister for Communications and Information Technology: Will the Government enforce its broadband contract with Chorus?
6. CLAUDETTE HAUITI to the Minister for the Environment: What announcements has the Government made in relation to the national policy statement for freshwater?
7. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister of Housing: What reports has he received on the effect of loan-to-value restrictions on the housing market?
8. Hon PHIL HEATLEY to the Minister for Social Development: What reports has she received about the number of people receiving benefits?
9. CAROL BEAUMONT to the Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment: How does women’s participation rate of 1 percent in building and construction industry training assist with the Christchurch rebuild?
10. Dr CAM CALDER to the Minister of Education: What recent announcements has she made to strengthen the status of the teaching profession?
11. EUGENIE SAGE to the Associate Minister of Health: Does she agree with the Canterbury Medical Officer of Health that increasing nitrate levels in Canterbury groundwater are a health risk, particularly for pregnant women and babies; if not, why not?
12. HONE HARAWIRA to the Minister of Finance: What is his budget plan, if any, to immediately address growing poverty in New Zealand, which has got so bad that charitable organisations have today said they are expecting an influx of more than 40,000 struggling families for Christmas dinner because they can’t afford to put food on the table?

Today Labour are asking four questions.  Labour are asking about the Roastbusters affair, the governments broadband contract with Chorus, loan-to-value lending ratios, and the participation of women in the Canterbury rebuild. The Greens are also asking about the Roastbusters affair and Canterbury groundwater. New Zealand first is asking about the Canterbury rebuild. Mana is asking about poverty.

Patsy of the day goes to Cam Calder for Question 10: What recent announcements has she made to strengthen the status of the teaching profession?

Government Bills 3.00 PM – 6.00 PM

1. New Zealand International Convention Centre Bill – Committee Stage

2. Social Housing Reform (Housing Restructuring and Tenancy Matters Amendment) Bill –

The New Zealand International Convention Centre Bill is being guided through the house by the Minister for Economic Development, Steven Joyce. The purpose of the Bill is to give effect to an agreement between SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited and the Crown called the New Zealand International Convention Centre Project and Licensing Agreement.

The Social Housing Reform (Housing Restructuring and Tenancy Matters Amendment) Bill is being guided through the house by the Minister for Housing, Nick Smith.  This bill provides a framework for the future provision of social housing.

This is almost as bad as the Wellywood madness. There was nothing wrong with the old logo. The colour is awful, and the cross is meaningless. At least they left the slogan untouched.

Stuff reports:

Serial sex offender Stewart Murray Wilson has made an 11th-hour decision to elect trial by jury over accusations he breached prison release conditions, promoting allegations he is “abusing” the court process.

He wants a trial by jury? I don’t think they’ll have a problem finding people to go on that jury.

The 66-year-old appeared in the Whanganui District Court this morning when he was going to defend two charges brought by the Department of Corrections.

Almost worth moving to Whanganui just so you can qualify to sit 🙂

Amy Adams has announced:

Communications and Information Technology Minister has today instructed her officials to commission an independent assessment of Chorus’ financial position and its capability to deliver on its contractual commitments under the Ultra-Fast Broadband and Rural Broadband Initiatives.

Ms Adams has written to Chorus informing the company of her decision.

“In recent weeks, I have had the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) work with external consultants to carry out an independent analysis of Chorus’ financial position across a range of pricing options, based on publicly-available information.

“To complement this work, I have decided to seek an independent assessment at arm’s length from the Government.

“In order to properly assess the range of options before the Government, I have directed MBIE to work with Crown Fibre Holdings to commission independent advice to the Government of Chorus’ financial position and capability to deliver on its contractual obligations with the Government.”

The review would assess the impact of the Commerce Commission’s decisions on both the Unbundled Copper Local Loop and the Unbundled Bitstream Access prices on Chorus’ ability to deliver on its contractual commitments under the Ultra-Fast Broadband and Rural Broadband Initiatives.

As part of the review, the consulting firm would be asked to assess the scope for Chorus to manage the impact within the constraints of the reduced revenue, and if required, a range of alternative options.

At the end of the review, the report would be provided directly to Ms Adams, and a copy of the report released publicly.

I think this is a very sensible thing to do, and look forward to seeing who is selected to do the review, and their eventual report. That information will allow us to have a more informed debate on whether intervention with the Commerce Commission’s decision is necessary and/or desirable.

Yahoo reports:

When President Obama first ran for the White House in 2008, it was with the promise to turn the page on the presidency of George W. Bush. But for all their political differences, it turns out the American public pretty much view the two men in the same light, according to new polling data.

In the first week of November in the fifth year of their presidencies, Obama and Bush have nearly identical approval numbers, according to the latest Gallup polling.

In fact, Bush comes out one point ahead, 40 percent to 39 percent, respectively.

The Gallup daily tracking poll for November 5th 2013 puts Obama’s approval at 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving of his job performance.

By comparison, polling for the first week of November in 2005 had Bush’s approval at 40 percent, with 55 percent disapproving of his job performance.

The health reforms are turning into a major issue for Obama – not just the fact the central website is so defective, but that he promised no one would lose their current policies or plans – and many people are. It is emerging that the White House was informed that they were over-promising, but they did so anyway.

Meanwhile Chris Christie has been re-elected Governor of New Jersey in a landslide. It is important to note that New Jersey is a state that normally votes heavily Democrat, and has done so since 1992. Obama won it by 18%.

Christie appeals to non-Republicans but his actual policies are mainstream Republican – he is pro-life and anti gay marriage. Unions and others spent $35 million mainly trying to defeat him. The education unions alone spent $12 million against him. this is in a state of under nine million people.

The NY Times reports:

 In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 700,000, Mr. Christie won a majority of the votes of women and Hispanics and made impressive inroads among younger voters and blacks — groups that Republicans nationally have struggled to attract.

The governor prevailed despite holding positions contrary to those of many New Jersey voters on several key issues, including same-sex marriage, abortion rights and the minimum wage, and despite an economic recovery that has trailed the rest of the country.

He attracted a broad coalition by campaigning as a straight-talking, even swaggering, leader who could reach across the aisle to solve problems.

He is possibly the only Republican who can beat Hillary Clinton, and would be an absolute contrast to her. The exit poll numbers for him are fascinating.

• Won female vote by 19% (and up against a female candidate)
• Won the Hispanic vote by 6%
• Got 21% of Black voters (most GOP people get 5% or so)
• 32% of Democrats voted for him
• Won Independents by 34%
• Won low income households by 5%
• Won moderates by 24%, conservatives by 73% and lose liberals by 36%

Christie’s biggest challenge will be willing the primary, not the general election.

3 News last night reported:

The SSC released:

New Zealanders tell us that, in the last 12 months, satisfaction with public services has improved again.  The overall service quality score for June 2013 is 73, a point higher than June 2012.  Satisfaction has steadily increased over the last six years from 68 in 2007.

So satisfaction has increased over the last six years, despite the cries from Labour and the unions that spending restraint in the state sector would lead to a massive detoriation in quality of services.

Some specific improvements:

• Using an 0800 number for health information improved 8 points from 67 in 2007 to 75 in 2013.
• Staying in a public hospital improved 6 points from 68 in 2007 to 74 in 2013.
• Outpatient/Accident and Emergency services from a public hospital improved 5 points from 69 in 2007 to 74 in 2013.
• Tertiary education improved 4 points from 70 in 2007 to 74 in 2013.
• Emergency services improved 8 points from 73 in 2007 to 81 in 2013.
• The Police (for a non‐emergency situation) improved 4 points from 62 in 2007 to 66 in 2013.

What is also interesting is comparing the NZ scores to the Canadian survey this research is based on. The areas where NZers are more satisfied include:

• Accident Compensation +19
• Arrival process at airports +12
• Living in state house +6
• Childcare subsidy +5
• Police non emergency +3

But also interesting is the areas where NZ scores services much lower than in Canada:

• Local council building permits -26
• RMA issues -20
• Local council road maintenance -18
• Local council rates info -15
• Local council rubbish -13

There’s a clear message there!

Two Labour activists have blogged at Public Address in defence of Labour’s new gender quotas. The assumptions they use can’t really pass without challenge. First a minor quibble:

Under MMP, Labour has been “stuck” at between 30 and 40 per cent female MPs.  Considering the skills and capabilities of our New Zealand women, this just isn’t good enough.

Actually Labour are already over 40%.

All the International evidence shows that such inequality is a result of structural discrimination.  It’s why we need Maori seats to address structural discrimination for Maori. 

Actually Maori are over-represented in Parliament, not under-represented.

Now, to the maths.  The spreadsheet below is fairly self-explanatory.  Assumptions made are:

1. Labour receives 40% of the 2014 Party Vote.
2. Labour receives 42% of the 2017 Party Vote (this is an increase in PV of 5.01%, the same increase that Labour received between the 1999 and 2002 Elections).

Using the modelling below, you will see that in 2014, with a Party Vote of 40%, Labour will have a total of 48 MPs.  With at least 45% of those MPs being female, there will be 22 women and 26 men.  This is an increase of 6 men on current numbers.

Let me repeat that for you.  An increase of 6 men on current numbers.

With respect to Rachel, this is no rebuttal at all of what Gower has said. Sure if Labour gains a massive 12% vote from 2011, then no men have to get chopped. But what if they don’t gain 12%? What if they get 30% or 28% again? What if they get 26% and you lose David Parker? Are you going to make Lesley Soper your Finance Spokesperson as she took Parker’s place in Parliament?

Quotas are great if your vote increases massively. They don”t work so well in the tough years.

Considering not a single poll has shown Labour at 40%, using an assumption of 40% to prove a point is not credible.

The problems for Labour with gender quotas won’t come in opposition. It will come when they are in Government and they are looking to lose seats at an upcoming election. Then a quota becomes a straitjacket which may see senior male Ministers get unwinnable list spots to protect lower ranked female MPs.

Stuff reports:

Rob Ford says he loves his job and will stay on as mayor of Toronto despite admitting for the first time that he smoked crack.

Ford earlier acknowledged he smoked crack “probably a year ago” when he was in a “drunken stupor”, but balked at growing pressure on him to resign.

His defence of only doing it because he was in a drunken stupour isn’t a great one. Maybe a certain local Mayor could try that argument though 🙂

“I was elected to do a job and that’s exactly what I’m going to continue doing,” Ford said, near tears, at a press conference this morning (NZT). “On October 27 of 2014, I want the people of this great city to decide whether they want Rob Ford to be their mayor.”

In which case he should resign immediately and contest a new election.