Lots of fascinating data in this CBS poll of over 2,000 Americans.

• Trump has 53% approval and 47% disapproval
• 15% of Democrats approve of the way he is handling the presidency
• 55% of Under 30s approve
• 49% of Hispanics approve
• His attributes are Effective 58%, Focused 60%, Competent 55%, Tough 69%, Energetic 63%, Compassionate 37%
• Only 13% think the US taking over Gaza is a good idea
• Support for tariffs is on China 56%, Mexico 44%, Europe 40%, Canada 38%
• 59% approve of his deportation programme, including 23% of Democrats, 49% of Hispanics and 49% of Blacks
• 64% support sending troops to the border to stop illegal crossings

The full public results of the Better Wellington Curia poll are here. In this final part I want to focus on rates and related issues.

We asked support for a general proposition:

Wellington City Council should have smaller rates increases in future

That had 87% in favour and just 5% opposed.

We then asked more specifically:

Council rate increases should not exceed the rate of inflation

This had a still massive 77% in favour and just 9% opposed. 60% of those who voted for Tory Whanau in 2022 agreed with it and only 21% disagreed.

Net support by party vote was:

1. National +89%
2. TPM +77%
3. NZ First +70%
4. Labour +65%
5. ACT +62%
6. Greens +52%

A potential policy was polled on:

Would you support or oppose a policy that if the Council wishes to increase rates by more than inflation, any large projects they wish to fund must be approved by residents in a referendum?

This had 53% support and 29% opposition for net support of +24%. It was supported by all genders and age groups, and all five general ward voters,

Net support by party vote was:

1. NZ First +66%
2. National +49%
3. ACT +36%
4. Labour +27%
5. TPM +8%
6. Greens +5%

So net support from voters of all six parliamentary parties.

We also asked agreement on

Party politics doesn’t belong around the council table

This had 64% agreement and only 14% disagreement.

Two final questions on housing, being:

Do you believe social housing is primarily the responsibility of the city council or the central government?

Wellington City Council is funded by property owners through rates. Do you believe property owners should pay to provide social housing?

69% of Wellingtonians said that social housing is primarily the responsibility of the central government with only 11% saying the city council.

Only 24% support property owners paying rates to provide social housing with 57% opposed. Net support by party vote was:

1. TPM +46%
2. Greens +0%
3. Labour -32%
4. NZ First -51%
5. National -56%
6. ACT -80%

So overall what Wellingtonians want is:

• Better performance from the Mayor and Council
• A focus on fixing the basics
• Smaller rate increases, at or under the rate of inflation
• Referenda on major projects
• No party politics around the Council table
• More regular bus and train services
• No Golden Mile project
• No more cycleways
• Social housing transferred to central Government

None of this should be surprising.

A remarkable tweet from Labour’s former Foreign Affairs Minister backing the right of the Cook Islands to sign any agreement they want with China without even consulting New Zealand (which they are part pot the Realm Of, and have citizenship of).

Helen Clark correctly points out that the 2001 agreement (and she was the PM then) requires consultation. So we have Mahuta saying the Cook Islands is right to ignore an agreement made with New Zealand.

Thank goodness Mahuta is no longer Foreign Minister. She seems to be an advocate against New Zealand, rather than for it.

I’ve done my monthly analysis at Patreon (paywalled) of the five Anglosphere Governments and how they are faring in their fights for re-election.

President Trump is now the most popular Anglosphere leader, while Albanese has an uphill battle to get a second term and Reform are surging in the UK.

Part 2 of the Curia poll for Better Wellington is here.

We asked if people agreed or disagreed with the statement:

Wellington City Council should focus on fixing the basics – pipes, potholes, parks and pools

82% of Wellingtonians agreed (62% strongly agreed) and only 5% disagreed.

Net agreement by ward was:

1. Eastern +87%
2. Northern +85%
3. Lambton +84%
4. Southern +81%
5. Onslow/Western +79%
6. Māori +50%

Net agreement amongst those who voted for Whanau is 2022 was +66%.

Net agreement by 2023 party vote was:

1. National +98%
2. NZ First +93%
3. ACT +87%
4. Labour +85%
5. TPM +65%
6. Greens +63%

We then asked to rate five transport options as high, medium or low priority. They were:

• More cycleways for cyclists
• A second Mt. Victoria tunnel
• A second Terrace tunnel
• More regular bus services
• More regular train services

The percentage saying high priority over low priority for each was:

1. More regular train services +47%
2. More regular bus services +41%
3. Second Mt Vic tunnel -5%
4. Second Terrace tunnel -13%
5. More cycleways -53%

A very clear sentiment that a focus is wanted on improving current bus and train services.

We asked about the Golden Mile project:

Have you heard of the Council’s planned Golden Mile Revitalisation Project, and if so do you support or oppose it?

73% had heard of it. Only 20% supported it and 37% opposed it with 16% unsure.

Net support by age is:

• Under 40s: +0%
• 40 – 60: -19%
• 60+: -48%

Net support by ward is:

1. Māori +2%
2. Lambton +0%
3. Northern -21%
4. Eastern -22%
5. Southern -24%
6. Western -24%

Net support by 2023 party vote is:

1. Greens +24%
2. TPM +22%
3. Labour -13%
4. NZ First -15%
5. National -49%
6. ACT -63%

And a question on cycleways:

Do you think the recent cycleways constructed in Wellington are overall positive or negative for Wellington?

35% said positive and 52% negative for net negative of -17%.

Net support by ward is:

1. Lambton +14%
2. Māori +1%
3. Southern -14%
4. Northern -23%
5. Western -33%
6. Eastern -43%

Net support by 2023 party vote is:

1. Greens +51%
2. TPM +37%
3. Labour -27%
4. NZ First -28%
5. National -59%
6. ACT -62%

Again important to note that Labour voters are both against the Golden Mile project and think the recent cycleways have been negative for Wellington.

In Part 3 we will cover sentiment around rates and social housing.

Paul Goldsmith announced:

Ruth Money MNZM has been appointed New Zealand’s Chief Victims Advisor, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says.

“Ms Money is already an outspoken and energetic victims advocate with a proven track record of driving change. She has been a full-time volunteer since 2012 following a successful business career, and has extensive experience across the many and varied components of the justice system. She is committed to the view that society can and must do better for victims.

Ruth is a great person, and the best person you could imagine for this role. She has been a staunch advocate for victims for so many years, and to have her empowered with this role within Government is an excellent thing.

Stuff reports:

ACT leader David Seymour has defended a letter sharing “concerns” about police treatment of an Auckland eye surgeon being questioned over his wife’s death. …

On Sunday, the NZ Herald reported that Seymour wrote to Auckland District Commander Karyn Malthus in 2022, saying he’d been asked by Polkinghorne to share some concerns about his treatment. …

Seymour told Stuff the letter was sent before any charges against Polkinghorne were laid.

“An electorate MP’s job is to serve their constituents. I had a constituent contact me with concerns over the way they felt they had been treated by police. As is made clear in the letter, the intention was to pass on the constituent’s concerns to police,” he said in a statement on Sunday.

“Police responded assuring good practice was being followed and there was no further correspondence on the matter. This all took place before any charges were being pursued or reporting on the case had taken place.”

Seymour was not a Minister in 2022, so this isn’t a case of the Executive trying to interfere with a Police investigation. However I still think it was ill advised. This was a homicide investigation and MPs should not advocate on behalf of individuals. It is quite proper to do so to government agencies, but not to the Police. A sensible course of action would be to assist them with a complaint to the IPCA, or assist them with getting a lawyer. But not to write on their behalf if it is an ongoing investigation.

Curia did a poll for Better Wellington of a 1,000 Wellingtonians in January 2025. The results of Part 1 are here.

The first question asked was:

Overall would you say that things in Wellington today are generally headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?

Only 27% of Wellingtonians said Wellington is headed in the right direction with 54% saying it is off on the wrong track.

There was no difference by gender, but a large difference by age. Net direction is -10% for under 40s and -54% for over 60s. So all age groups are negative, but older Wellingtonians much more so.

The breakdown by ward (caution small sample sizes) for net direction was:

1. Māori +18%
2. Lambton -5%
3. Eastern -29%
4. Northern -35%
5. Southern -37%
6. Onslow/Western -50%

So Lambton ward is mildly negative, the other four general wards strongly negative and those in the Māori ward were positive.

Also of interest is that of those who voted for Tory Whanau in 2022, only 37% said Wellington is heading in the right direction and 46% the wrong direction.

The breakdown of net direction by party vote was:

1. TPM -5%
2. Greens -9%
3. Labour -27%
4. NZ First -38%
5. National -41%
6. ACT -60%

So voters from all six parliamentary parties think the net direction for Wellington is negative. TPM and Green voters only mildly so, but Labour and other voters strongly so.

Then we asked more specifically about Council satisfaction:

How do you rate the overall performance of the Wellington City Council over the last year. Would you say it was very poor, poor, average, good or very good?

Only 15% of Wellingtonians said the Council is performing above average and 51% below average for a net rating of -36%.

Net performance by ward was:

1. Māori +1%
2. Southern -24%
3. Lambton -26%
4. Northern -39%
5. Onslow/Western -48%
6. Eastern -55%

Of those who voted first preference for Whanau is 2022, 31% said WCC was doing a good job and 28% a poor job.

Labour voters are dissatisfied with the Council with only 12% saying it is doing a good job and 48% a poor job.

The final question in Part 1 was on the Mayor’s performance:

How do you rate the overall performance of Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau over the last year. Would you say it was very poor, poor, average, good or very good?

17% of Wellingtonians rate the Mayor’s performance as above average and 46% below average.

Under 40s give Whanau a net rating of -10% and over 60s a net rating of -64%.

Net performance for the Mayor by ward is:

1. Māori +2%
2. Lambton -13%
3. Northern -33%
4. Onslow/Western -34%
5. Southern -41%
6. Eastern -43%

Labour voters are again unhappy with only 16% saying the Mayor had done a good job and 42% a poor job.

In Parts 2 and 3 I will detail some of the responses to issues and policies.

Radio NZ reports:

The New Zealand government says the Cook Islands has failed to properly consult it on proposed agreements its Prime Minister Mark Brown will be signing in China this week.

Brown has now left for China without further consultation, RNZ understands.

In a statement this afternoon a spokesperson for foreign affairs minister Winston Peters said they could confirm that Brown and Peters spoke over the phone on Friday.

During that conversation Peters impressed upon Brown what further information New Zealand required to assuage our concerns about the lack of consultation regarding the proposed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Cook Islands and China.

“The Deputy Prime Minister, in the phone call and in writing within hours of the call, repeated to the Prime Minister a months-old request that the government of the Cooks Islands share with New Zealand the contents of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP) and other agreements that Prime Minister Brown intends to sign in China, in line with the requirement for consultation in the 2001 Joint Centenary Declaration between New Zealand and the Cook Islands,” the spokesperson said.

New Zealand is meant to be responsible for foreign policy and affairs for the Cook Islands. Now if they want to go from being part of the Realm of New Zealand to being a fully sovereign and independent country, that is their right. But there should be a consequence for that, which is they can start funding their own government, rather than have NZ taxpayers pay for around a quarter of their government.

Jerry Coyne points out:

Just to show you how, in the hiring process, New Zealand gives much more weight to identity than to merit, I enclose part of the job description for the position of Chief Operating Officer of Wellington Water, the water utility for the Greater Wellington region (Wellington, a lovely city, is the capital of New Zealand).  The document was sent to me by a Kiwi who, of course, wishes to remain anonymous (you are not allowed to point out things like this for fear of losing your job or being demoted).

At the end of the whole job description (I have it on pdf), there’s a “person specification”, which gives both the “essential” and the “desired” qualities of the person to be hired.  Note that experience in working in such a water system (“three waters” delivery refers to drinking water, storm water, and sewage) or having established a network in the water sector are only “desired” qualities (including a bachelor’s degree).

 But the essential qualities, part of which I’ve outlined in red, include “an understanding and knowledge of te ao Maori, tikanga and the principles relating to Te Tiriti o Waitangi”.

Amazing isn’t it. This is a job for the COO of a major water company and actual experience with water systems is only rated desirable while knowledge of tikanga and te ao Maori is essential!

This might explain why we have so many leaks!

Radio NZ reports:

Whangārei’s fluoridation rebellion is intensifying with the Director-General of Health threatening to potentially pull rank and turn on the switch to add fluoride to the city’s drinking water if the council continues its defiance.

The Councillors seem to have an inflated sense of their own importance. They don’t get to ignore laws passed by Parliament.

Whether or not you agree, Parliament has passed a law that allowed the DG of Health to mandate fluoridation. If you don’t like the law you lobby to change it. You don’t get to ignore it.

In my Patreon (paywalled) I explain why the view that the Treaty of Waitangi is a supreme law that sits above Parliament is wrong, and is an impossibility.

Day 3 was a relatively short 16 kms, starting with some typical bush.

Nice shade from the canopy.

The track here was a lot easier than the first day which was very hard rock.

Lots of birds about.

A rare solid bridge across the river.

The Pororari River was next to the track for much of the day.

Back into fern territory.

Steps down as we hit river level.

Was very tempted to jump in for a swim.

In this section you basically go into a sort of cave formed by huge boulders wedging together, and there is a small set of steps out of the rocks.

Beautiful view of the river, near the end.

The final stretch.

Fellow trampers at the pub at Punakaiki.

After 55 kms of tramping on blisters, the answer to the question “Shall we walk down the road to see the Pancake Rocks” should be “Hell no” but masochism is under-rated so I said “yeah” and we walked around 1 km down the road to see Pancake Rocks, which were awesome.

A great view of the coast from Pancake Rocks.

As you can see the boot didn’t do so well, and it resulted in constant squeezing of the foot as I walked.

I ended up with a total of six blisters on my sole, my big toe and the side of the foot. The more blisters I got, the more I speeded up so I would be able to get the boots off at the end of the day!

Was still an amazing experience with great company and scenery, but next Great Walk will see me with different boots!

This is a great video. Guy Williams is somehow now a journalist for someone, and tried to interview/challenge David Seymour.

Day 2 is looking to have just as beautiful weather as Day 1.

A view back of Moonlight Tops Hut from the track.

The first couple of hours were through what the Ranger calls goblin forest. To be fair, it does look like it would be a good scene for Lord of the Rings.

We then get back into the open.

This is where you can do a detour down the Pike 29 Memorial Track to the Pike River Mine. Was never going to do the additional 23 kms (on top of the 19 kms on the main route) but did consider the 7 km option to a viewing platform by one of the shafts. However the state of my boot and foot ruled that out so stayed on the main route.

A view of the track ahead.

A typical view on Day 2. So remote and beautiful.

Back under canopy.

At the emergency shelter (which was very flash) where we had lunch, one of three keas in the valley paid us a visit.

Later afternoon got to Pororari Hut where I had good old dehydrated rations for dinner. Considering the packet was 10 years old, it was surprisingly edible!

And another beautiful sunset to end the day.

Politico reports:

After three months of soul-searching about how to revive their party, some Democrats this week believe they have finally found a rallying point following Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

Billionaire Elon Musk’s campaign to dismantle the federal bureaucracy piece by piece at Trump’s behest, starting with the U.S. Agency for International Development, lit a fire under many Democratic lawmakers — several of whom rallied Monday outside USAID headquarters.

But relaunching the resistance to defend one of the least popular corners of the federal budget could be a monster miscalculation — and some prominent Democrats told me they have serious strategic reservations about how their party is fighting back.

When I asked veteran strategist David Axelrod whether Democrats were “walking into a trap” on defending foreign aid, he literally finished my sentence.

“My heart is with the people out on the street outside USAID, but my head tells me: ‘Man, Trump will be well satisfied to have this fight,’” he said. “When you talk about cuts, the first thing people say is: Cut foreign aid.”

The Democrats seem to have no idea which of the hundred things Trump is doing, they should focus on, and bizarrely they pick cutting foreign aid as the one to rally against. That will not get them votes.

And to make things worse they have elected a 24 year old radical millennial as their national vice-chair who has called for the police to be defunded, ICE abolished, legalise all drugs and a top tax rate of 100%! As if that isn’t enough, he has said having children is bad for the environment.

The Republicans may be in power for a very long time.

At the start of the track, near Blackball.

Across a good old DOC swing bridge.

An old gold miner’s hut which is a few hundred metres off the main track.

It wouldn’t be a NZ tramp without wekas.

As we got higher, there was rata in full bloom everywhere. Absolutely beautiful.

This is the historic Croesus Top Hut, just below the new Ces Clark hut.

Ascended to around 1,000 metres above sea level, for this great view.

The Ces Clark Hut. We didn’t stay overnight here, but did have a much needed lunch break. Took around four and a half hours to get up to it.

We decided to take the 70 minute side trip to Croesus Knob, which is around 1,200 metres elevation. Was not kong in distance, but quite steep.

Great views from the top. Could see the Tasman Sea, but Mt Cook was hidden by clouds.

The track ahead.

Around three hours of tramping on the ridge line after Croseus Knob.

Very pleased to see this as one of my boots had started to disintegrate (the surface was very hard and rocky most of the way) and started to clip my foot, giving me a large blister.

Moonlight Tops Hut, where we stayed. Great warden who gave a very informative talk, and unusually has a view which includes in the distance the next hut we’ll stay in.

One of the views from the hut.

Everyone in the hut gathered on the hill to watch the sunset, which did not disappoint. A few wild goats turned up to watch also.

Dinner was a nice curry, and we did a few rounds of cards before bed.

The first days saw tramping of 22.99 kms, 36,164 steps and 1,267 vertical metres ascent. Was pretty tired, and sore, but very satisfied.