Rodney Hide writes in the HoS:

Let’s start with the numbers. They aren’t mine. They come from a recently published Ministry of Social Development “factsheet”.

A total of 76,000 New Zealanders were born in 1993. About 6000 were subsequently abused or neglected; 3000 became known to the Youth Justice system by the age of 17; and 41,000 – more than half – spent time in a household dependent on a main benefit such as the dole or DPB.

The benefit-supported children were six times more likely to be abused than those who were not benefit-supported. And they were 14 times more likely to be known to Youth Justice.

Those in households benefit-dependent for nine or more years were 13 times more likely to be abused and 29 times more likely to be known to Youth Justice.

Staggering.

The Herald reported:

Almost half of all women and a third of men earn less than $18.40 an hour – a rate which two Labour Party leadership contenders have promised to implement as a “living wage” in the state sector if they win power.

I’m still bemused that Labour now believes the effective minimum wage should be determined by Rev Charles Waldegrave of Lower Hutt! What will they do if next year he declares it should be $27 an hour!

Would-be Labour leaders Grant Robertson and David Cunliffe promised this week to raise minimum wages for government employees and contractors to $18.40, which unions and church groups say is the minimum required to meet the basic needs of two adults and two children where one parent works fulltime and one half-time.

This is why it is insanity to use the living wage as a de facto minimum wage. The living wage calculation is based on a very specific family situation that does not represent the vast majority of workers. Why would we say a 16 year old should have the same income as a 40 year old parent with two children?

Institute of Economic Research director Jean-Pierre de Raad said the figures confirmed that a living wage would be “harmful to the employment prospects of young people”.

Yep. Who is going to hire a 16 year old on a $38,000 a year starting salary?

“The data also confirm questions about the logic of the living wage,” he said. “The $18.40 figure is based on the expenses faced by a notional median nuclear family … earning the median household income.

My point. It is voodoo economics to start insisting this should be a minimum wage across the board for all employees.

“But a large proportion of those on low wages are the young … who will improve their incomes over time as they get work experience.”

I heard a great quote on a podcast today. The best way to eventually get a higher paying job, is to get a lower paying job. Saying that every adult in the public sector (or contractors to it, which is most of NZ) must start on at least $38,000 a year is nuts.

Blunt on Gareth Morgan’s praise of North Korea’s economy.

NBR reports:

Kim Dotcom now says he canstand for Parliament at next year’s election.

Last week, the Teutonic tech titan told media he was going to form his own political party, and take a run at the ballot box himself – only for Kiwiblog’s David Farrar to dig up Section 47(1) of the Electoral Act, whose citizenship provision seems to clearly ruleout Mr Dotcom.

But iin a new interview published today with the Washington Post, Mr Dotcom says, “When I made that statement, my lawyers were still looking into it, and their preliminary answer was that you can only run as a citizen of New Zealand. But they went through the full several hundred pages of New Zealand election law, and they found that if I’m a permanent resident of New Zealand who’s lived here for more than a year and is a registered voter — which I will be in November — you can run for office. I’ll get more specifics on Tuesday when I sit with my lawyers, but at the moment it looks like I can run myself.”

Keeping Stock blogs these responses from Graeme Edgeler:

I know whose money I’m on for being right!

Tony Abbott declared last night that Australia is now under new management and open for business. The Coalition have won with one of the largest margins in recent times – yet no a total bloodbath.

The latest ABC projection is Coalition 89 (+10), Labor 51 (-10), Greens 1 (nc), Independents 2 (-2). That is just below the 1996 result for Howard where they got 94 seats.

By state it was like this:

• ACT – Labor 2 (nc)
• NSW – Libs 21 (+5), Nats 7 (+3), Labor 18 (-6), Independents 0 (-2)
• NT – Country Libs 1 (nc), Labor 1 (nc)
• Queensland – LNP 21 (nc), Labor 7 (-1), Palmer 1 (+1), Katter 1 (+1)
• South Australia Libs 6 (+1), Lab 5 (-1)
• Tasmania Libs 3 (+3), Labor 1 (-3), Ind 1 (nc)
• Victoria Libs 15 (+3), Nats 2 (nc), Labor 19 (-3), Greens 1 (nc)
• WA – Libs 12 (+1), Nats 0 (-1), Labor 3 (nc)

Still a dozen seats in play so these may change.

The primary vote has been Coalition 45.3% (+1.6%), Labor 33.8% (-4.1%), Greens 8.4% (-3.3%), Palmer United 5.6% (+5.6%), Family First 1.3% (-0.9%), Katter 1.0% (+0.7%).

Kevin Rudd’s concession speech was terrible. Long, rambling, resembling a victory speech, all about him and disgracefully not once did he mention Julia Gillard. He talked as if he had been Prime Minister for the last three years. He retained his seat but announced he will not contest the Labor Party leadership. More than one person quipped how they had heard him say that before! But finally it looks like he is gone. I’d say Bill Shorten is the likely new leader, but time will tell.

Time will also tell how Tony Abbott will do. A prediction that one day Abbott will be PM in 2007 would have seen you laughed out of the room. He has run a disciplined campaign and team over the last four or so years. However it was very much a rejection of Labor than an endorsement of Abbott. They have a large enough majority that I’d expect they’ll serve at least two terms.

The tight preferencing between minor parties appears to have delivered them a lot of Senate seats, so that will be a major challenge for the Abbott Government.

Also Clive Palmer has got elected to the House. He appears to be stark raving mad, so that also adds an unpredictable factor.

The exit polls to date show there will clearly be a change of Government. Roy Morgan currently has it as:

• Coalition 42.5%
• ALP 33.5%
• Greens 11.5%
• Palmer 5.0%

On a TPP basis they have Coalition 52% to 48%. That would see the Coalition with 83 seats to 60. If Palmer preferences go more strongly towards the Coalition then they say it is 53.5% to 46.5% and 88 seats to 59.

The Sky News/Newspoll exit poll has it 53% to 47% for the Coalition TPP and projects Coalition 97 seats (+25), Labor 51 seats (-21), Greens 0 (-1) and Independents 2 (-3). Their primary vote is Coalition 45%, Labor 36%, Greens 8%.

These are just exit polls. Actual results should start around 8 pm. It is possible that Labor could lose every seat in Queensland including Rudd’s. His seat is being tagged too close to call on the exit poll. Do remember that exit polls can of course be wrong if they are taken in unrepresentative polling booths. Also seat projections are based on linear swings, and normally there is considerable variability from one seat to another in how much they swing. So don’t jump to any conclusions before we actually get some results in.

I’ll try to update this post when there is significant news, but will mainly be tweeting.

UPDATE: And it’s all over. Sky News now has it Coalition 76 and Labor 46. Abbott is now PM-Elect!

Stuff reports:

For the first time, New Zealand is ahead of Australia in the Global Competitive Index.

The annual report by the World Economic Forum shows New Zealand is 18th, up five places in the past year. Australia dropped one place to 21st.

New Zealand’s rise reflected a steady economic recovery and “prudent pro-growth policies”, said Oliver Hartwich, executive director of the New Zealand Initiative, which helped compile the survey data.

New Zealand was ranked among the top 10 in the world for the quality of its institutions, health and primary education, higher education, goods and labour market efficiency, and financial markets development, the report shows.

Hartwich cautioned against complacency. The country had failed to make any improvement on its innovation and business sophistication factors, ranking 27th globally, behind Puerto Rico and Qatar.

Switzerland, which was ranked second in the world for innovation and business sophistication, was named the most competitive economy in the world for a fifth year. The next most competitive countries were Finland, Japan, Germany, Sweden, the United States, the Netherlands, Israel, Taiwan and Britain.

Good to be improving. Global competitiveness is a key factor in prosperity – not increased barriers and destroying competition.

The full report is here. Our individual rankings are:

• Institutions 2nd
• Infrastructure 27th
• Macroeconomic environment 43rd
• Health and primary education 5th
• Higher education & training 9th
• Goods market efficiency 9th
• Labor market efficiency 8th
• Financial market development 4th
• Technological readiness 24th
• Market size 62nd
• Business sophistication 26th
• Innovation 26th

The most problematic factors for doing business were:

1. Inadequate supply of infrastructure
2. Inadequately educated workforce
3. Insufficient capacity to innovate
4. Inefficient government bureaucracy
5. Access to financing
6. Tax rates

No a bad ad for Bob Katter. Won’t work with most people, but well aimed at his target voters. Will be interesting to see how he does in a few hours.

John Armstrong writes in the NZ Herald:

The time has surely arrived to dump New Zealand’s failed two-decade-old experiment with American-style citizens-initiated referendums.

Anyone questioning that recommendation should look no further than some of the self-serving behaviour following last Monday’s official authorisation of such a plebiscite on National’s partial privatisation programme.

The will of the people – David Lange once observed – was a fickle beast. It could be an awful tyrant; it could be a terrible slave.

Someone should have told the Greens. They are happy to accept the will of the people when it comes to the results of the forthcoming referendum on asset sales. But not so when it came to the 2009 referendum on smacking. That is hypocrisy, pure and simple. If you accept the will of the people once, you have to accept it for good. And that is not a recipe for good government.

If you do accept it, you accept your Cabinet decisions are going to be proscribed by referendum. The Greens would not like that happening to them. So why impose such restraints on National.

Thank God someone is calling it for what it is – flagrant hypocrisy.

If there was a successful CIR on lowering income tax rates, would the Greens drop their opposition to lower taxes? Of course not.

When the law allowing voters recourse to these devices was passed by Parliament 20 years ago, Labour’s Michael Cullen described the measure as “an ill-thought-out piece of political flummery” and predicted correctly that it would end up satisfying no one. He was too kind. Making it mandatory for governments to implement the results of referendums risks making good government nigh on impossible.

Making such referendums non-binding on governments, however, renders those referendums as next to useless.

And making them binding can be a good way to bankrupt a state!

Some amusing entries at the Labor Glossary.

Democracy
noun
A series of poorly managed focus groups.

Equality
noun
The pursuit of the objective of preventing minorities and the underprivileged from abandoning support for Labor in numbers that would be electorally fatal, by doing the absolute bare minimum to address their grievances.

Fair
adjective
Anything that is believed to enhance Labor’s prospects in Western Sydney or other marginal electorates.

Surplus
noun
It’s not here yet. Please come back in 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016.

Very good.

Alexander Bisley interviews John Clarke, the force behind the hilarious Clarke & Dawe in Australia.

AB: There’s an excellent documentary on the Russian group Pussy Riot. The British director was telling me about the vital importance of humour as a weapon, and how people like Vladimir Putin just don’t have a good sense of humour.

JC: The Russians are very good on that subject because humour was one of the sustaining aspects of Soviet society. The cartoonists in Russia at that time were not only brilliant, they were enormously brave and they didn’t all survive. It’s very important. The most delicious thing is to do something that isn’t a joke and which only the prison guard doesn’t laugh at. In Ancient Greece irony was “the glory of the slaves.”

Some of the Greek and Roman plays were delightfully subversive as the slave owners were often portrayed as doltish, and the slaves as the real crafty ones.

Phil Kitchin at Stuff writes:

Two victims of a serial paedophile fighting to keep his name secret will ask a judge to lift suppression of their names, as they join a legal battle to prevent the man getting compensation for an alleged privacy breach.

The women are furious that taxpayers will fund the Office of Human Rights Proceedings’ prosecution of the Sensible Sentencing Trust for revealing the predator’s name – but it won’t fund a lawyer to represent them.

One victim said she and fellow taxpayers were paying for a paedophile to continue “the abuse”, because he still denied his guilt, despite his multiple sex convictions.

It beggared belief that an independent office from within the Human Rights Commission was fighting to protect his privacy – and wanted him compensated – when no court record existed of him having final name suppression, the women said.

“He robbed me of my childhood and murdered my innocence,” one of them told The Dominion Post.

They believed the man was “cowardly” for trying to keep his name secret, saying paedophiles who did not admit their crimes usually reoffended, and there could be other victims who had not spoken to police.

“Robbers and murderers don’t get name suppression, so it’s just as important that these people are stopped,” one victim said. “He has no privacy – he gave up his right to privacy when he abused innocent young girls and was convicted in a court of law.”

The paedophile – who was earning about $150,000 a year in a chief executive role until he was outed – said in a sworn statement that he did not commit the crimes for which he was convicted in the mid-1990s and sentenced to a year’s jail.

If there is no court record of name suppression, I do not see how one can just assume the man had name suppression, and hence assume that the sensible Sentencing Trust have breached his privacy.

First Grant Robertson borrows from Russel Norman:

John Key, Robert Muldoon, Kim Dotcom?

I am in the middle of a leadership contest but what I do know is that the first two of those people have such similarities; it would be very hard to choose between them.

So Grant also thinks John Key is like Sir Robert Muldoon. I’mm not sure if he is demented or just playing to the audience.

But Shane Jones goes one better:

Labour leadership hopeful Shane Jones says he wants to string up Prime Minister John Key with a bungy cord around a “sensitive spot.” …

“I’m going to tie a bungy cord around a sensitive spot and then I’m going to get those callipers and cut them and then the mercenary of capitalism can suffer what he deserves – a dead cat bounce.”

Imagine if say John Key had spoken about Helen Clark like that. He would have been denounced by every newspaper and media outlet in New Zealand.

Speaking from the Marshall Islands this morning, Key said Jones’ intentions towards him “sounds painful”.

“If they want to spend their time taking about parts of my anatomy or my personality they are free to do so. I don’t think it will win them a lot of votes,” he added.

Key is pretty much the opposite of Muldoon when it comes to dealing with with personal attacks.

Stuff reports:

Maungakiekie MP Sam Lotu-Iiga has introduced a member’s bill to Parliament that would make wearing a lifejacket compulsory for children up to 15 on boats 6 metres in length and under.

The proposal only relates to youngsters up to 15 but Mr Lotu-Iiga say he expects a select committee to examine whether it should be extended to all ages.

There are on average 17 recreational boating deaths a year.

I’m okay with it for kids, as they are more vulnerable, and well … kids. But far from convinced it should be extended to all adults. Having them on board yes – wearing at all times – no.

iSentia report on the top five issues at the end of august in Australia. They were:

1. Paid parental leave
2. Garden Island naval base
3. Syria conflict
4. High-speed rail plans
5. Third televised leaders debate

The Coalition’s paid parental leave scheme is a massive bribe which is badly targeted and unaffordable. I hope no one advocates it is adopted here!

Coming up this week on the Nation

MINING — 100% IMPURE?

• Energy and Resources Minister Simon Bridges.
• Petroleum Exploration and Production Association CEO, David Robinson.
• Straterra (Minerals and mining lobby group) CEO Chris Baker.
• Greenpeace executive director Bunny McDiarmid.

LABOUR X-FACTOR CONTINUES

• When Jesus was a schoolboy — what Labour’s leadership candidates did at school and university and what sort of impact  they have made in politics. A Torben Akel investigation.

AUSTRALIA ELECTION

• What the bloody hell! Now they’re voting here as well. Aussies in NZ. Suze Metherell among her Kath and Kim.

On TV3 Saturday at 9.30 am, repeated Sunday at 10.30 am

I understand that three of the six unions have now endorsed David Cunliffe for the Labour leadership, and in fact have asked delegates to rank Jones 2nd and Robertson 3rd.

The DWU were previously known to have endorsed Cunliffe. I understand RMTU have also. I do not know if the 3rd union is MUNZ or MWU – I have assumed MUNZ as they are stronger in Auckland.

The updated table based on vote assumptions (and they are assumptions) are:

The EPMU has such greater voting strength that their (presumed) support for Robertson balances out the smaller unions support for Cunliffe. If Robertson does not in fact get most EPMU votes, then Cunliffe will win the union vote.

I’ve not heard reports of shifts in the caucus vote, apart from uncertainty over Huo. If so, then the members vote will be all important. I hope to have a stab at how that may go early next week.

Claire Trevett at NZ Herald reports:

Cunliffe has had a dramatic, but possibly short-lived, transformation into a middle-class Che Guevara. He has decried the dirty freemarket, the crony capitalists, and the neo-liberal agenda and promised world domination to the unions and jobs and lucre for all. 

This leadership contest is like Christmas and Easter rolled into one for the unions. Anything they ask for, they receive. National’s changes abolished – done. A living wage for all – done. Part 6A extended to all industries – done. National Awards back from the 1970s – done.

Stuff reports:

New Zealand is likely to shift its position on protection for the Ross Sea in Antarctica, Prime Minister John Key has confirmed.

Fairfax NZ revealed yesterday that a joint NZ-United States proposal for a marine sanctuary is set to be scaled back after pressure from fishing nations.

Key said today officials are working on a new plan, ahead of talks in Tasmania next month.

An earlier bid, for 2.3 million square kilometre reserve, was scuttled by Russia during talks in Germany in July.

“This is the second attempt to get change, and if we are going to get change we are probably going to make some alterations,” he said today.

Restrictions already exist in the pristine environment, but officials in Wellington and Washington have proposed the worlds’ biggest marine protection area (MPA) to protect pristine waters and overfishing of toothfish.

New Zealand has some fishing rights in the sea – the US has none.

Other seafaring nations – including Norway, Chile, Korea, China and Japan – oppose the plan.

It is a reality that if you can’t get agreement on a marine reserve as large as you want, you have to compromise as a smaller marine reserve is better than no marine reserve. This is not a decision NZ can make unilaterally. One dissenting country out of 25 can block it.

As the sun is about to set here in #Tehran I wish all Jews, especially Iranian Jews, a blessed Rosh Hashanah. pic.twitter.com/tmaf84x7UR

— Hassan Rouhani (@HassanRouhani) September 4, 2013

This tweet was from the President of the Islamic Republic Republic of Iran.

The Washington Post reports:

The tweet called special attention to Iran’s Jews – there are thought to be perhaps 25,000 living largely in peace – but it’s the reference to “all Jews” that seems especially significant. Given the long-standing enmity between Iran and Israel, and the years of official Iranian rhetoric condemning Israel in often anti-Semitic language, this is quite a shift.

After eight years of fiercely anti-Israeli rhetoric from former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his government, which often veered well into anti-Semitism, it’s difficult to separate discussion of Jews in Iranian political discourse from discussion of Israel. That’s obviously not a particularly helpful habit. But the point is that this tweet, purportedly from Iran’s president, seemed to be offering a very small gesture of goodwill at least partially toward Israelis, who can usually expect nothing but hateful rhetoric from Iranian rulers. It’s not exactly a unilateral declaration of peace – tomorrow, Iran will probably still support Hezbollah – but it’s yet another hint of Rouhani’s efforts to dramatically soften Iranian foreign policy and rhetoric.

The former President talked often of wiping out Israel and denied the Holocaust occurred. This one sends Rosh Hashanah greetings to all Jews. It is just symbolic, but a very welcome change of tone.

A spokesperson has tried to deny the account is the President’s, and it may be run by someone on his behalf, but it is thought he approves any messages on it.

Growing speculation about who will survive in the Labour Leader’s Office if Grant Robertson doesn’t win. I’ve heard the two other candidates are talking openly of a clean out. Jones, because he doesn’t think they’re up to it, and Cunliffe because he sees them as Robertson loyalists.

Likewise a Robertson win is unlikely to see much change in the shadow cabinet except Cunliffe promoted to front bench. However a Cunliffe win could see a very major shakeup. Most of his supporters are mid ranked or unranked.

Having worked in a party leader’s office during several coups, it is far from fun to have your job security so unknown.

Stuff reports:

Look out, Apple, there’s a new player in the app store game – the Wellington City Council.

The council will launch an online store in coming weeks where people will be able to download smartphone and tablet computer applications, or apps, that showcase anything uniquely Wellington. It is thought to be the first council-developed app store in the country.

Council staff say the apps available will cover “things as simple as locating disabled toilets to things that we have yet to think of”. The initiative is part of a wider plan to turn Wellington’s aspirations of being a “smart city” into reality.

The council’s manager of information and technology, Channa Jayasinha, said about 12 apps would be available when the store opened. They would include the My Parx app that helps users explore city parks and reserves, as well as The Pack, which allows friends to keep track of each other and call for help on a night out.

That sounds a very cool initiative. There’s lots of useful apps a Council could have. Maybe one which tells you where the closest available carpark is?