Will it be Christie vs Clinton?

Chris Christie has pretty much all but declared he will seek the 2016 Republican nomination. His major message – he can win.

Politico reports:

Christie said his blunt, tell-it-like-it-is style makes him attractive to people who have not voted Republican before and said that polling shows 95 percent of Republicans still support him.

“You don’t have to sacrifice your base voters to win Latino votes,” he said. “You don’t have to sacrifice your base voters to win a share of African-American votes. You don’t have to sacrifice your base voters to be able to win building-trade votes. You don’t have to sacrifice your base voters to close a gender gap and turn it in the other direction.”

He noted that he is on track to win 35 percent of Democratic votes in a state where the opposition has a 750,000 voter registration advantage, and that polling shows he’s winning independents 3-to-1.

Impressive figures.

Then he boasted about a string of endorsements: “This year for governor I’ve been endorsed by the Latino Leadership Alliance of New Jersey, the largest Latino political group in the state, and they’ve never before endorsed a Republican for statewide office,” he said to applause.

“I’ve been endorsed by the executive director of the Black Ministers Council and 24 intercity African-American ministers,” he went on. “If you listen to the national media, you’d think this could never happen, that African-American leaders of this country will never stand with Republicans. We’re going to show you in New Jersey this year that that is simply not true.”

“Lots of folks talk in our party about a gender gap, and we have a gender gap in New Jersey, too,” he continued. “The last public poll showed that I’m winning women 59 to 30 in New Jersey. We have a gender gap, a plus-29 gender gap in New Jersey. And, by the way, I’m running against a female opponent!”

Some of those endorsements may be because he is obviously going to win anyway, but there is no doubt he has wide appeal.

Christie repeatedly made the point that these people do not agree with him on 100 percent of issues.

“Our party’s got to get back to looking people in the eye, not try to figure out what they want to hear,” he said. “I tell folks in my state all the time if you’re looking for the candidate you agree with 100 percent of the time, go home and look in the mirror. You’re it. You’re the only person you agree with 100 percent of the time, alright? If that’s the litmus test, forget it!”

Christie left no doubts in the minds of Republican leaders gathered here for the party’s summer meeting that he will begin actively running for president after he wins the expected coronation in New Jersey this November.

There was a recent poll asking people to rate some politicians from 0 to 100 for favourability. Christie topped the field:

  • Gov. Christie – 53.1
  • Secretary Clinton – 52.1
  • Sen. Warren – 49.2
  • President Obama – 47.6
  • Sen. Gillibrand – 47.6
  • Sen. Cruz – 46.8
  • Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida – 46.5
  • Vice President Joseph Biden – 46.2
  • Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley – 45.7
  • Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal – 45.2
  • Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky – 44.8
  • New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo – 43.9

What is interesting is the breakdown by party affiliation:

  • Gov. Christie – 59.8 GOP/53.2 DEM
  • Secretary Clinton – 77.7 DEM/31.6 GOP
  • Sen. Warren – 65.0 DEM/32.3 GOP
  • President Obama – 76.3 DEM/18.2 GOP
  • Sen. Gillibrand – 58.5 DEM/37.2 GOP
  • Sen. Cruz – 65.6 GOP/24.5 GOP
  • Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida – 65.1 GOP/32.9 DEM
  • Vice President Joseph Biden – 69.5 DEM/23.8 GOP
  • Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley – 53.7 DEM/41.3 GOP
  • Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal – 59.4 GOP/29.7 DEM
  • Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky – 61.6 GOP/23.8 DEM
  • New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo – 55.0 DEM/34.1 GOP

Every other politician has a huge split on party lines. Christie is unique in his cross-party appeal. If he can win the nomination, he would be a nightmare for Democrats in the main election.

Hooton on 100% pure

Matthew Hooton writes in NBR:

The usual suspects are at it again.

After the Fonterra fiasco, the likes of the Daily Mail, Rod Oram, the Chinese Communist Party and the Green Party are again targeting Tourism New Zealand’s 100% Pure campaign.

I wonder if other countries put up with this nonsense? Many countries have marketing slogans that are of course not literal statements of fact.

In fact, the 100% Pure campaign was never exclusively or even primarily about the environment.

Launched in 1999 by the Shipley government, and maintained throughout Helen Clark and Mr Key’s prime ministerships, 100% Pure was always about the quality of the visitor experience.

Jumping off a bridge tied by the feet to an elastic band is 100% Pure adrenalin, dining on fresh crayfish and Cloudy Bay is 100% Pure indulgence, and so forth.

Tourism New Zealand’s market research always showed that tourists and potential tourists understood the campaign’s messages far better than those who, for domestic political reasons, have co-opted 100% Pure and subverted it to be solely about the natural environment.

Matthew is absolutely right. They are trying to hijack what the slogan is about.

Indeed, early market research suggested that the initial 100% Pure imagery was too focussed on the natural environment and neglected people and activities. Potential tourists wondered if there was anything to actually do in New Zealand except stare at a lake.

As a result, through most of its history, 100% Pure’s imagery has been designed to tell a story of how landscapes, people and activities combine to produce a uniquely, 100% New Zealand experience.

Environmental lunatics like Dr Ehrlich may define a world as 100% Pure only if there are no people in it but most human beings understand they have just as much right to be part of the environment as the Eritrean gannet.

Indeed, a country with no humans is the only way you can be 100% environmentally pure.

Those who doubt how our environment stacks up are clearly ignorant of the rest of the world but those who visit here are not. In Tourism New Zealand’s 2012 Visitor Experience Monitor, satisfaction with our landscapes and natural scenery received an overall rating of 9.5 out of 10, the highest rating in the survey and ahead of food, beverages and shopping.

Only 9.5/10. What a disgrace.

The commercial danger is that the green movement’s misrepresentation of 100% Pure will create pressure for it to be dropped.

100% Pure is the most successful tourism marketing campaign in history, winning dozens of international awards including best destination marketing campaign at the 2012 World Travel Awards for its latest 100% Middle Earth iteration.

Part of its secret is its longevity. While other countries change their tourism campaigns regularly, 100% Pure has survived 13 years. Its core message has been repeated for so long that it has become well enough known to be worth theDaily Mail criticising it.

The data speaks for itself. Since it was launched, holiday arrivals have increased by 56%, from 785,000 in 1998/9 to 1,224,000 in 2012/3. Total revenue is up 53% to $5.5 billion. 

Yet a few dedicated people want us to drop it.

New Zealand is a clean and green country, with a beautiful natural environment, and offers a wide range of 100% Pure holiday experiences. We should be proud of it. And the green movement and their foreign backers should stop running it down.

Hear hear.

A prime candidate for three strikes

The Press reports:

A man whose “appalling” record of violent offending is the worst a judge has seen has jailed for five years and nine months.

Justin James Taia, 40, was sentenced today on a charge of causing grievous bodily harm with intent to injure after being found guilty by a Christchurch District Court jury.

Taia beat up a St Albans neighbour, Vaea Lam, who suffered serious head and brain injuries and had to have part of his skull removed. He lost five teeth.

Crown prosecutor Deidre Orchard said the head injury almost resulted in Lam’s death, and Taia had an alarming history of violence.

Lam was in court, and Taia called out: “Yeah, but I didn’t start this. You should man up, man.”

Full of repentence!

Taia had the most appalling record for violence he had seen, with 16 previous violence convictions.

Sadly he was in court just two years ago.

A man who punched and stomped on his mother, and attacked his wife, both of whom had protection orders against him, was jailed today. 

Justin James Taia, 38, was sentenced at Christchurch District Court after being convicted of assaulting his mother with intent to injure her, assaulting his wife, and two charges of breaching protection orders.

Judge John Strettell said these were Taia’s 12th and 13th assault charges and his sixth and seventh breaches of protection orders. …

He sentenced him to 18 months imprisonment, with release conditions to attend counselling programmes and treatment as recommended by his probation officer.

He came close to killing someone this time. I presume he now has his first strike offence. Its madness that he just goes in and out of jail time after time, and his list of victims grows larger.

Gridlocked Wellington

Was at the Backbencher when the quake struck and boy did that place sway. Went on for a fair while.

Headed home and not too much damage but the television had fallen off its cabinet. No glasses smashed this time, but a few things fallen off shelves.

The motorway is near gridlocked, with people leaving to go home early and the trains being cancelled. Of course things worse for those in Seddon and Marlborough.

The main quake was a decent 6.6, and some of the after-shocks pretty strong also.

Will Coliseum get the rugby?

The Herald reports:

The internet-based broadcaster that snatched English Premier League football away from Sky is now eyeing the All Blacks.

This weekend Coliseum Sports Media will stream the first of 380 Premier League matches to subscribers.

CSM chief executive Tim Martin said he could not reveal the number of PremierLeaguePass subscriptions, which start at $149.90, sold so far, but interest had “ramped up massively” this week.

“You don’t know how the sales curve is really going to shape because we haven’t done this before … we are well into the thousands, well into, and that is tremendously encouraging.”

He confirmed Coliseum is eyeing a much bigger scrap with Sky – contesting the rights to the All Blacks and Super 15 when they come up in 2015.

Although there had been no concrete discussions, Mr Martin said he had met with New Zealand Rugby bosses. He acknowledged they had a strong relationship with Sky, but an eventual play for rugby was realistic.

Yesterday Sky’s director of sport Richard Last said it was committed to holding on to rugby rights.

“There is always a competitive marketplace … I don’t think there is any piece of content that is an absolute slam-dunk must-have, because you have to run a business.

“Obviously everybody who is interested in television in New Zealand would be interested in rugby. Winning the rights is easy – you just pay more than the person with the highest bid.”

Excellent news. Competition for sporting rights is good for the sports, and I believe good for viewers also. It is quite exciting to see video on demand emerging as an alternative to traditional television.

du Fresne on Judges

Karl du Fresne writes:

I was reminded of that era last week when I read an excerpt from a new book called Grumpy Old Men, in which Auckland District Court Judge Russell Callander sounds off about some of the things that irritate him. No, make that many of the things that irritate him.

Judge Callander is in his 70s and sounds like a throwback to those magistrates I recall from the late 1960s. His is a magnificent rant that will warm the hearts of curmudgeons everywhere. Allow me to quote some of the juicier bits:

“People who dress badly when they appear in court can make me tetchy. Courts are solemn places: Not the beach or the public bar of the local boozer.”

“Epidermal self-mutilation with grotesque ill-drawn graphics so frequently flaunted by defendants, their associates, and witnesses are most irritating. When a man can’t even successfully spell four-letter Anglo-Saxon words, it makes me worry either about the standards of teaching in our schools, or the intelligence quotient of some of our more delinquent citizens.”

“Benefit bludgers and tax cheats make me growl with indignation. When people improperly take benefits, they steal from the state – from the rest of us who obediently pay our taxes. Often they have the cheek to look very disgruntled when they are caught, convicted and ordered to pay it all back.”

“A huge amount of court time is wasted by Maori activists who profess that Maori sovereignty renders them somehow immune to the laws of New Zealand.”

“And then there are the liars, the perjurers, the fabricators and prevaricators. Gone are the days when people admitted their crimes and told the truth. The oath is mainly meaningless. The mantra is ‘Get off the hook by any means’. It is shameful and destructive. It makes me not just grumpy but angry.”

I find it hugely refreshing that a judge should throw political correctness to the wind and so vigorously express sentiments felt by many of his fellow New Zealanders.

The Herald has a longer list of views from Judge Callander. I must go but his book!

Teachers Council name suppression

Graeme Edgeler complained to the Regulations Review Committee of Parliament that the rules put in place by the Teachers Council to apply blanket name suppression to all details of their disciplinary proceedings trespassed unduly on personal rights and liberties, appeared to make some unusual or unexpected use of the powers conferred by the statute under which it was made and contained matter more appropriate for parliamentary enactment. The Herald on Sunday joined his complaint.

The Committee has reported back and it is a partial victory, which pushes things in the right direction. They have resolved to recommend:

  • the New Zealand Teachers Council change rules 31, 32, and 33 to ensure the proceedings of the Teachers Council Disciplinary Tribunal are open to the public unless the Disciplinary Tribunal makes an order to the contrary 
  • the Government consider introducing amending legislation to specify, in the Education Act 1989, that the proceedings of the Teachers Council Disciplinary Tribunal are open to the public unless the Disciplinary Tribunal makes an order to the contrary on specified statutory grounds.

Their conclusions were that the rules of the Teachers Council:

  • are in accordance with the general objects and intentions of Part 10A of the Education Act 1989 (Standing Order ground 315(2)(a)); 
  • do not trespass unduly on personal rights and liberties (Standing Order ground 315(2)(b)); 
  • appear to make an unusual or unexpected use of the delegated power in section 139AJ of the Education Act 1989 (Standing Order ground 315(2)(c)); and 
  • may contain matter more appropriate for parliamentary enactment (Standing Order ground 315(2)(f)).

The two Labour MPs on the committee (Street and Dalziel) wanted to go further and find that the rules are not in accordance with the Act and do trespass on personal rights and liberties. Presumably they would have supported the Committee actually disallowing the rules, rather than just recommending they be changed.

The ball is now in the court of the Teachers Council to listen to Parliament and change their rules.

Council development charges

Nick Smith has announced:

The Government has decided on changes to the Local Government Act to rein in council development contributions to improve housing affordability.

“We are going to narrow the charges councils can put on new sections, provide an independent objections process and encourage direct provision of necessary infrastructure to get costs down,” Housing Minister Dr Nick Smith and Local Government Minister Chris Tremain say.

“Development contributions have trebled nationally over the past decade and have gone up more than any other component cost of a new house. This huge increase can be attributed to the local government law change in 2002 that gave councils carte blanche to charge whatever they liked and removed any check or appeal on these charges. These charges now average $14,000 per section but can be as high as $64,000 per section,” Dr Smith says.

How I see it is National is focused on reducing the costs of new houses across the board. Labour just wants to subsidise 10,000 state houses a year that it will sell at a discounted rate through a lottery. If you don’t win their lottery, then bad luck

Dunne on party registration law changes

Peter Dunne blogs:

First, it was UnitedFuture, not the Electoral Commission, that raised the issue of the difficulty we were having verifying the status of some of our members. Had we just signed the annual statutory declaration that we had 500 financial members the Electoral Commission would have been none the wiser because it has no power to check the accuracy of a party’s declaration. So we were deregistered for being honest, which is quite absurd. Therefore, my Bill will require the Electoral Commission to formally audit the membership of all registered parties once every three years to ensure they do in fact have a minimum of 500 financial members, and are not just saying so in the sure knowledge they will not be checked up on.

I think it is a great idea to have the Electoral Commission audit membership claims.

The next absurdity was the Electoral Commission’s archaic insistence that we produce 500 individually signed declarations and its refusal to accept on-line memberships. That is totally out of step with today’s reality so my amendment will ensure on-line memberships will be treated as valid for registration purposes, and will make the Commission subject to the provisions of the Electronic Transactions Act, something it is currently specifically exempted from.

Also a good idea. To be fair to the Electoral Commission they have to act within the current law.

Third, I am proposing that where a party that has been registered for at least two elections is deregistered it will be able to lodge a re-registration application within 90 days, without being treated as a new party. The Electoral Commission kept telling us that UnitedFuture was clearly not a new party – having been around for nearly 20 years – but under its internal rules (not the Electoral Act incidentally) it claimed it had no option but to treat us a new party. This is clearly a nonsense – a party cannot be both an established party, yet treated as new party, at the same time.

Obviously some self-interest here. This one I am fairly neutral on. The best course of action is for parties to make sure they clearly stay over 500 members. In fact I think the threshold should be 1,000.

Definitely a bill that should go to select committee, if drawn out.

More bad news for the manufacturing crisis

Labour, Greens, NZ First and Mana recently concluded their inquiry into the “manufacturing crisis”. Sadly for them the manufacturing sector is at near record confidence levels with the July PMI Index at the highest level since is started in 2002, for the month of July.

pmi

 

The BNZ states:

The BNZ-BusinessNZ seasonally adjusted PMI for July stood at 59.5, which was 4.3 points higher than June and a return to strong levels of expansion seen in May. Compared with previous July results, the 2013 value was the highest since the survey began in 2002, and the third highest monthly result on record.

And this part was fascinating:

The very robust level of the PMI overall goes to show the strength of the positives (domestic and possibly elsewhere offshore) outweighing the slowdown in Australia and associated NZD/AUD strength. This is not a complete surprise. After all, domestic manufacturing sales are about a quarter bigger than manufacturing export sales.

This is not to say some are hurting from the stronger NZD/AUD, but rather on balance economic positives are outweighing the negatives and increasingly so. Indeed, it is the economic positives in NZ’s favour that are behind the currency’s strength in the first place.

PMI’s illustrate the relative story. In comparison to NZ’s stunning 59.5 July PMI reading, the equivalent Australian series sits at a miserable 42.0. In fact, NZ continues to sit atop the PMI leaderboard of usual comparator countries.

This is what David, Russell, Winston and Hone call a crisis.

Waikato DHB on fluoride information

A great press release from the Waikato DHB CE:

A frustrated Waikato District Health Board chief executive lifted the lid today on his thoughts around the upcoming Hamilton City Council fluoride referendum.

Craig Climo spoke to media today in the wake of widespread media coverage around Hamilton City Council’s misguided leaflet on health advice about fluoride efficacy and teeth brushing.

The leaflet was sent out city-wide with rates invoices.

Mr Climo said the whole decision [to take fluoride out of Hamilton’s water] was a “perfect example of science losing out to bias”.

“We put up all the science and the anti-fluoridation side put up ill-informed, misguided comment and it won the day, and I think that should be of concern to anyone who’s rational,” said Mr Climo.

It’s appalling that the Council not only voted against science, but even worse they stick out a pamphlet with incorrect information in it.

“But it’s not even just the financial issue. It’s the poorer oral health status.

“It’s the aesthetics, the stigmatisation, the loss of confidence, the loss of utility of teeth that goes with it.

“It’s little children having teeth removed under general anaesthetic.

“This was a decision made by white middle class people that will seriously disadvantage – has already disadvantaged – people in our community. That’s where we’re going to see the bulk of the problem.

A fair point.

Trotter on Key

Chris Trotter writes:

UNDERESTIMATING JOHN KEY is a serious mistake. Helen Clark did it in 2008, and Key knocked her out of the ring. He did the same to John Campbell last night.

When is the Left going to come to terms with the fact that John Key is National’s toughest, smartest and most dangerous leader – ever? Defeating “The Candidate from Central Casting” was never going to be easy, but our consistent failure to grasp the brute reality of Key’s clear superiority – when compared to just about every politician the Opposition can throw at him – is turning his defeat into a near impossibility.

Defeat is far from impossible. In theory a Labour/Greens/NZ First/Maori/Mana combination is within striking distance of governing.

However I do agree that many on the left under-estimate Key constantly. They forget his performance vs Cullen in 2005, Clark in 2008 and Goff in 2011 – each a 30 year veteran of Parliament.

We are, after all, talking about a politician whose popularity seldom dips below 40 percent in the Preferred Prime Minister ratings. We are looking at a National Government which, in 2011 increased its share of the Party Vote to an unprecedented 47.3 percent. And that was three years after it had been elected with an MMP record-breaking 44.9 percent. Why don’t we “get” how extraordinary this guy is? Since when does a prime minister’s (let alone a government’s) honeymoon last five years?! 

Simply because it is not a honeymoon. The actual honeymoon lasted around nine months.

Think about the televised encounter between John Key and John Campbell on last night’s Campbell Live (Wednesday, 14 August 2013) and then consider the Prime Minister’s tactics in the light of the following observations about political debate:

“This is the very first condition which has to be fulfilled in every kind of propaganda: a systematically one-sided attitude towards every problem that has to be dealt with … When they see an uncompromising onslaught against an adversary, the people have at all times taken this as proof that right is on the side of the aggressor; but if the aggressor should go only halfway and fail to push home his success … the people will look upon this as a sign that he is uncertain of the justice of his own cause.”

The source of these observations? Mein Kampf – by Adolf Hitler.

Another politician who was seriously underestimated by his enemies.

Chris often takes the hyperbole a step too far. In this case, it is several steps too far.

Friday Photo: 16 August

While NZ actually has a dearth of butterfly species, other parts of the world have a much richer fauna.  The Xishuangbanna region of Yunnan is one of them.  The region here borders Laos and includes an extensive area of tropical forest.  Needless to say, I got a few butterfly pics out there.

 

Click for larger, higher res image

Hope everyone has a good Friday.

Wgtn Airport wants $200 million for a new runway

The Dom Post reports:

Wellington ratepayers are likely to contribute a lot more than the $1 million they have already spent on the proposed airport runway extension, if it is ever built.

Infrastructure investor Infratil has confirmed it is keen to proceed with the $300 million project but only if central or local government pays most of the bill.

Speaking at the firm’s annual meeting this week, chief executive Marko Bogoievski said the runway would not become a reality unless local ratepayers and taxpayers also chipped in to the tune of $200 million.

Well that’s easy. No.

Kiwiblog’s 10th birthday party

My first post on Kiwiblog was on the 27th of July 2003, so Kiwiblog has just had its 10th birthday. Over the decade Kiwiblog has had:

  • 22 million visits
  • Almost 45 million page views
  • Around 30,000 posts on 5,000 different topics
  • Over one million comments made.

As I was in New Orleans on the 27th of July, I’ve delayed the 10th birthday party until this month. There are three parts to it.

Part 1

On Tuesday 27 August (10 years and 1 month) we’re having a cocktail party to celebrate the 10th birthday that evening. My thanks to sponsors Kensington Swan, Ideas Shop, Independent Liquor and Wineseeker for coming to the party (literally) and making it happen.

kiwiblogrtd

 

In what are bound to become collector items, we will have both a special Kiwiblog RTD at the party, and also special Kiwiblog label pinot noirs and sauvignon blancs (plus beer). It should be a great night.

Sadly the venue can only hold 120 or so people, so that function is invite only. But I am providing an opportunity for readers to come along.

Part 2

I’m also hosting a public party at the Backbencher on Wednesday 21 August. I’ll be there from 5 pm onwards, and any and all readers are warmly invited to pop in for a drink. I’m working on seeing if we can get some Kiwiblog RTDs and wine made available, but there are some issues with liquor laws which we are working through. But at worst, you’ll have all the other drinks available at the Backbencher to choose from (cash bar).

We’ll also have a jar there and if you bring along your business card (or write name on a piece of paper), we’ll have a draw just before 6.30 pm for half a dozen or so tickets to the cocktail party the following week.

Whether you’re a regular commenter, an occasional contributor or a lurking reader – all welcome.

Part 3

On the same night (Wed 21 August), there will be a special episode of Backbenches focusing on Parliament, politics and social media. The filing is delayed slightly (starting 6.30 pm) to allow more time for drinks before hand (and hopefully afterwards). I understand the MPs appearing are prominent tweeters Trevor Mallard, Tau Henare and Asenati Lole-Taylor – so it should be a provocative night. It’s the second to last Backbenches of 2013, so if you want to attend a show, come along.

It’s been a fun ten years of blogging. I blog because I enjoy it – that is my main motivation. Thanks to all those who have contributed over the years, and hopefully see some of you next Wednesday.

Dom Post on child abuse

The Dom Post editorial:

Over the past five years, more than 50 children have died as a consequence of child abuse.

The names of Sahara Baker-Koro, James “JJ” Lawrence and Karl Perigo-Check are now seared in the national consciousness alongside those of Nia Glassie, Chris and Cru Kahui and James Whakaruru.

But, despite the public expressions of dismay, the political tut-tutting and the considerable efforts of police and social workers, children living in a land of plenty continue to be killed and beaten by those they have every right to expect will love and cherish them.

The sweeping law changes unveiled this week by Social Development Minister Paula Bennett are an attempt to turn the tide by making bureaucrats more accountable, introducing a form of mandatory reporting and banning child abusers from working, living or socialising with children.

Some were concerned that the green and white papers would be a talkfest that led to no change. It is good to see that significant changes are proposed.

Another proposed change – giving judges the power to ban suspected, but not proven, child abusers from contact with children has raised the hackles of civil libertarians. However, presented with a choice between trampling over adults’ rights and trampling over children, the minister has chosen to tilt the balance in favour of vulnerable children.

The select committee which considers the legislation may yet have something to say about allowing courts to impose child harm protection orders “on the balance of probabilities” rather than the higher criminal standard of “beyond reasonable doubt”. The threat of injustice is real.

But, given New Zealand’s sorry record of protecting its most vulnerable, the minister’s precautionary approach is understandable.

I have doubts over the threshold, and want to see evidence that you need to extend CHPOs to people without convictions.

However when talking about this on radio last night, I did think of a possible example. The Kahuis. It is beyond doubt that either the father or mother neglected or killed the twins. They basically blamed each other, which meant neither was convicted beyond reasonable doubt. However we heard enough to form an opinion that they were very bad parents. So maybe that is the sort of case intended?

New Zealand’s horrific record of mistreating children has not just seared itself on the national consciousness, but on the minister’s consciousness as well. Future generations may have reason to be grateful.

We will need more than just law changes. As I mentioned earlier today policies such as placing kids with extended family need to be reevaluated also.

WCC spends $40,000 to raise $452!

WCC Watch reports:

Thanks to an official information request by rumoured-almost-Lambton-Ward-candidate Jackson Wood we now know that Wellington City Council invested wasted almost $40,000 in to its “Alternative Giving Fund” campaign that raised $452 in its first two weeks. …

Beyond appalling. What a waste of ratepayers money.

Cats v Dogs

News.com.au reports:

A WOMAN who died in her isolated home in Hampshire, UK, was gnawed by her cats after her death.

Southampton Coroner’s Court heard that Janet Veal, 56, was found on her kitchen floor on April 4 after neighbours noticed her letterbox had not been cleared and raised the alarm, the Daily Mail reports.

Police who entered the home through an unfastened window found a “distressing scene” inside with the dead bodies of a number of animals also found alongside their owner.

They are believed to have starved to death after they were left without food. It is also believed some of the animals had begun to feed on their owner.

This is more common that people might think. I understand that if you die and have a dog, the dog will howl and wail and miss you terribly. But if you die with a cat, then they may start feeding on you within a few hours!

I like that old saying that dogs have masters, and cats have staff! So true!

Key on Campbell Live on GCSB

Campbell Live have been running a week long jihad against the GCSB Bill. I’m actually fine with that. Media are allowed to take stands on issues, and I prefer media to be upfront about their leanings, than pretend they are neutral when they are not. It is no secret that John Campbell’s politics, and the show, lean far to the left of Labour.

As I said that’s fine, just as NBR leans to the right.

But considering Campbell Live is clearly crusading against the bill, it is was quite remarkable that the PM agreed to go on the show. But he did so last night, you can watch the video at this link.

I thought the PM did an excellent job of calmly explaining the bill, to fairly frenzied questions or statements from John Campbell. The PM is much better when he is the “explainer-in-chief” than when he is swiping at people who disagree on the bill.

As for John, I leave the commentary to his biggest fan:

Again, I recommend people take the time to watch the video. Here’s Wallace Chapman on it:

I agree with Wallace that the PM was superb. Cool, calm, collected, factual and reassuring.

If I was in the Labour Party, I’d be getting quite worried about next year’s election debates.

The retirement age

Simon Collins at NZ Herald reports:

The growing numbers of elderly New Zealanders who are working beyond age 65 have cut the net cost of the country’s ageing population.

Statistics NZ said yesterday that the population aged 65-plus had doubled since the early 1980s to 635,200 and was likely to double again by 2040.

But a paper by the University of Auckland’s Retirement Policy and Research Centre, published today, says Treasury estimates of the net costs of superannuation in 2060 have been revised downwards from an estimate made in the year 2000 of 9.7 per cent of national income to just 6.6 per cent in the latest revision this year.

Centre co-director Michael Littlewood said a key factor in the reduced net cost was an increase in national income because of spectacular increases in the numbers of elderly people working well past 65.

This shows there is no immediate crisis, but it is still inevitable that the age of eligibility for NZ superannuation will increase.

Labour’s policy is a modest step in the right direction. It doesn’t in fact really increase the age of eligibility. It merely applies an income or means test for those aged 65 or 66. The logical extension of their policy should be to extend the means test to everyone who is eligible for NZ superannuation. I’d rather we tax people less, and only provide welfare to people who need it – than over-tax people, just to give them some of their own money back later.

The argument against means testing is that the cost of applying a means test would be considerable, and the money saved not great. I wonder if Labour have budgeted for the extra compliance costs of their means test?

In terms of the age, I think a gradual shift to 70 is sensible.

But Mr Littlewood said the revised figures gave the country time to have a “research-led debate” about all aspects of retirement policy – not just raising the qualifying age to 67 as the Labour Party advocates, but also whether super should be linked to wages or prices and whether some of the cost should be clawed back through tax changes from those still on high incomes after 65.

The key measure you could change to make superannuation more affordable would be to link it to inflation, not the average wage.

What I’d like to see is the current scheme locked in place for everyone born before 1965 or even 1960. And then have that research-led debate on what sort of scheme we should have in place for those far off retirement.

Egypt gets closer to civil war

The Herald reports:

Security forces stormed two huge Cairo protests by supporters of Egypt’s ousted president Mohamed Morsi, prompting the resignation of vice president Mohamed ElBaradei and sparking nationwide violence which left at least 149 people dead.

With clashes breaking out across the country and rioting erupting in Egypt’s second city Alexandria, Egypt’s army-installed authorities declared a month-long state of emergency effective from 4:00 pm Wednesday (2am Thursday NZ time).

They also slapped Cairo and other provinces with curfews between 7:00 pm and 6:00 am.

Gory photographs and video images of the Cairo bloodbath dominated social media networks as world powers called for restraint and condemned the show of force by Egypt’s security forces.

Four churches were attacked in Egypt, with Christian activists accusing Morsi loyalists of waging “a war of retaliation against Copts in Egypt”.

The violence is not just between the Army and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood is also attacking Coptic churches.

But the anger against the Islamist movement was evident Wednesday as residents of several neighbourhoods clashed with Morsi loyalists.

Clashes also erupted between security forces and Morsi loyalists in the northern provinces of Alexandria and Beheira, the canal provinces of Suez and Ismailiya and the central provinces of Assiut and Menya.

In Alexandria, hundreds of angry Morsi supporters marched through the streets armed with wooden clubs chanting “Morsi is my president”.

An AFP reporter said the protesters set fire to car tyres and tore down pictures of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who was behind the Islamist leader’s July 3 overthrow.

At one cafe where Sisi’s picture was hanging, they smashed the doors and beat up the patrons as they shouted “Sisi is a killer”.

It is difficult to see how Egypt can return to having a democratically elected President, who is seen as legitimate by the overwhelming majority of the country.

The role of Iwi with abused kids

Michael Fox at Stuff reports:

The Green Party wants iwi empowered to oversee the placement of Maori children removed from unsafe homes under proposed child-protection laws.

Co-leader Metiria Turei said Maori children were far more likely to be affected by the changes and called the Government’s plan “a condescending colonial approach that New Zealand could do without”.

Calling something a “colonial” approach is a lazy way of saying you disagree with it. How is it a colonial approach? Does it target Maori kids only?

Having said that, I’d love Iwi to take a more prominent role in helping prevent child abuse, and having them involved in placement of kids could be well worth considering.

The Maori Party said yesterday that every effort should be made to ensure Maori children removed from their parents’ care were placed with extended family.

As I understand it, that is the current policy of CYF and the courts. But there is a problem with the status quo policy.

Sometimes an entire extended family is dysfunctional. There have been examples of kids getting abused or neglected multiple times as they rotate through various family members.

Of course it is better for a kid to go to an aunt/uncle or a cousin, than a stranger. But only if they are capable, competent and willing. Not all extended families are.

Turei said yesterday that the Greens wanted extra iwi oversight over new permanent placements for Maori children removed from their parents if they were settled outside of their wider families.

“Given that the Social Development Ministry and population data show Maori kids are three times as likely to be removed from their parents as non-Maori, extra care is needed to ensure tamariki will be genuinely better off in the state’s care,” she said.

As I said, I think that could well be worthwhile. It may depend though on how connected a family is to their Iwi. Many urban Maori do not have strong connections to their Iwi.

Turei repeated criticism that the Government was not addressing poverty in its proposed measures, even though it was a major contributor to child abuse.

People use poverty as an excuse to do nothing. Our rate of child abuse is far higher than many countries with far far worse poverty. To imply that all the Government needs to do is increase the level of welfare in New Zealand and you solve child abuse is simplistic. We actually have one of the most generous welfare states in the world.