Good God I’m stunned.

NZPA report:

Cabinet Minister Simon Power is retiring from politics in November to return to the private sector.

The high-flying National MP is the minister of justice, commerce, State-owned enterprises and the associate finance minister. He is also the minister responsible for the Law Commission and Deputy Leader of the House.

His name has frequently featured in future leader predictions but today he announced he was leaving Parliament.

Mr Power, MP for Rangitikei, said he was looking forward to continuing to contribute to New Zealand’s growth, but in the private sector.

Simon was a guaranteed front-bencher for the next two terms of Government, if National was re-elected. Good on him for deciding to get out while on top, but he will leave a big gap in Cabinet. His workload was massive and he oversaw many major reforms.

On a personal level, I’ve always found Simon very approachable and good to talk to. I recall first meeting him as a candidate and being hugely impressed.

In Government I’ve agreed with many of his decisions, and disagreed with a few – that is the nature of politics. But always found him very willing to engage.

Simon has the respect of many Opposition MPs for his willingness to consult and compromise. His chairing of the Privileges Committee hearing into Winston was superb and we saw Simon at his best.

I’ve wanted to blog this several days ago, but out of respect I’ve held off. But hell have I been sickened by the way certain people have not seen the earthquake as a disaster, but an opportunity to clamour for higher taxes.

I’m not against a debate on how we pay for the earthquake damage, but to my mind here’s the rough order of priority after the earthquake:

1. Find and heal the wounded
2. Provide emergency assistance to the survivors who need it
3. Find and bury/cremate the dead
4. Work out the cost of rebuilding Christchurch
5. Decide how to pay for it

But within just three days of the earthquake, we had both politicians and media demanding tax increases, and insisting the PM rule things in or out. For fuck’s sake – couldn’t that wait until you know after we’ve stopped pulling bodies from the rubble?

The media get some criticism here. Last week they asked the PM whether he would increase taxes, and he said he didn’t want to rule anything out. So of course the headlines are Government looking to increase taxes, until the Govt then ruled that out. Then this week they ask if certain spending programmes are off the table, and merely because Bill English refuses to make decisions on the hoof, the headlines are that this spending programme may be cut.

Could the media please refrain from asking such stupid questions until we are past step four, and especially when we are not even much past step one. Until the costs of the earthquake are known, such questions are stupid and to be blunt offensive.

But politicians on the left are also to blame. Russel Norman on the 25th, a mere three days after the quake, blogged in detail about how much he wanted taxes to go up (temporarily it is claimed) for those earning over $48,000 a year. He has absolutely no idea how much the earthquake will cost, but regardless has tables showing how he would raise $487m a year.

I can’t comprehend how one’s immediate reaction after an earthquake is to ask the Parliamentary Library to calculate how much extra revenue one can gain from an additional tax, and then blog about it. Did he think that if he waited a month it would not still be a topic for discussion?

Such a post a month after the earthquake would be fine. But within 72 hours. My God.

Cactus Kate has also written a number of posts exposing the hypocrisy on certain blogs. Her latest is here, and this post also a must read.

As to the substance of should there be a tax increase to pay for the earthquake, I’m surprised so many on the left have forgotten their Keynesian economics.

There is no doubt the Government is going to face a bill of many billions. Some of this will be through the EQC and some through the consolidated fund. I would urge the Government not to be stingy, and believe they won’t be (even though of course they can’t cover everything).

The EQC funded stuff is not a problem – just like any insurance company, levies will be set to make sure reserves are adequate.

So the debate is for what you fund from the consolidated fund. And the left are arguing that one should increase taxes to pay for it. Now increasing income taxes dampens economic growth – so at a time when we are on the verge of going back into recession, when already GDP growth projections have dropped 2.0%, they want to contract the economy further.

Increasing taxes in a recession (which we surely will now be in) is plain dumb. And worse, its is being promoted by people who are just using the earthquake as an opportunity for their sock the rich mentality.

A small quake hit Wellington last night. No bigger than we normally get a couple of times a year or more. But hell was my reaction different to normal. No staying put until it died down – I was heading for shelter instantly (and wondering whether being on the top floor of a ten story building was such a great idea after all).

Fortunately it was just a small one (and fortunately was a Wellington quake, not the remote impact of another Christchurch quake), but I was not alone in reacting very differently to in the past. And I can only imagine what it must be like in Canterbury with the constant afterquakes.

A reader in Christchurch e-mailed me the below, which he said I can blog:

I found out today, in the oddest of ways that goes back to the fact that Chch is a small city where ultimately everyone knows everyone else in some way, that my roof had at least partly collapsed. It make the possibility of going in and rescuing a few things more remote, which made me very sad.

Even though I had talked about losing everything, I obviously, in my heart of hearts, had thought that there was still a chance to get a few unique and sentimental things out. The notebooks of my deceased fiancee. The bone handled knife handmade for my grandfather, who used it to carve a large wooden spoon for my grandmother – they are in a kitchen drawer.

But life goes on. I am going to escape to Timaru for a couple of days and then Takaka for a few more. It is nice to know that I have many friends.

The loss of life is the worst aspect of the earthquake, but the loss of unique possessions would come a close second to me.

Backbenches at 9.10 pm on Wednesday 2 March will of course be focusing on Christchurch.

Bring along a fiver and we’ll try and raise a bit of cash to send to the Red Cross. Damian and I will raffle off a stack of NZ music CDs, as well as a beautiful hard back book by acclaimed NZ Magnum photographer Brian Brake.

The Panel – Gareth Hughes (Greens), Darren Hughes ( Labour) Peter Dunne ( United Future ) John Hayes ( National). Come around 8.30 pm, starts 9 pm, we’d love to see you there.

In 1996 we moved from FPP to MMP, and a record 50 new MPs were elected to Parliament (45 brand new and five re-treads).

Of those 50, only six are left in Parliament, they are:

• Gerry Brownlee
• Rodney Hide
• Nanaia Mahuta
• Wayne Mapp
• Georgina te Heuheu
• Tariana Turia

Dr Mapp has retired, and it is quite possible a couple more may retire, so next term they may be down to just three left.

On a related note the current Father of the House is Jim Anderton elected in 1984. It would be Phil Goff, if he had not lost his seat in 1990. Next would be Annette King, but she also lost her seat in 1990. It’s interesting that the two MPs elected longest ago, are the Leader and Deputy Leader of Labour – part of their relevance problem.

Anyway Anderton is retiring, so who will be Father of the House after the 2011 election? Well Peter Dunne if he  is re-elected, otherwise Lockwood Smith. After Lockwood is Murray McCully I think – which is a scary thought!

My former flatmate wrote this year in review, which is some nice light relief in these times so I figured it was worth sharing.

2010 HINDSIGHT: ONE-EYED REVIEW OF WEIRD AND WACKY LEGAL AND ILLEGAL EVENTS OF THE YEAR, BASED LOOSELY ON TRUE STORIES, TWITTER AND THE AUTHOR’S IMAGINATION.

By David Thompson

JANUARY

In summer silly-season news, German tourist Hans Kubus is sentenced for attempting to smuggle out 44 geckos and skinks in his underwear. Court rejects Kubus’s defence that he had spent too long around ill-dressed male bathers and had simply mistranslated the term “budgie-smuggler”.

Meanwhile, in what will later be seen as a pre-emptive strike against WikiLeaks, the US Defense Department reveals the whereabouts in Afghanistan of our SAS, including media-shy hero, Colonel Willie Apiata, VC.

FEBRUARY

Telecom XT network crashes yet again in the South Island and lower half of the North Island. CEO Paul Reynolds fronts apology showing why an honest-sounding Scottish accent and silver hair are worth 5 million a year. Questioned about rumours that special forces have been called in, the SAS will confirm only that Willie Apiata is deployed “somewhere south of Taupo”.

In overseas news, the America’s Cup is finally decided by two actual boats sailing a race. Race is criticised as a stunt and a sideshow detracting from the noble sport of litigation.

MARCH

Government replaces elected council Environment Canterbury (ECan) with Dame Margaret Bazley to remove vexatious obstacles to overturning water conservation orders, such as due process and the judiciary. Legal commentators break into cold sweat.

At Academy Awards, Matt Damon misses out for 1995 Rugby World Cup movie Invictus, but Sandra Bullock wins Best Actress for The Blind Side, while Best Picture goes to The Hurt Locker. Martin Snedden and 2011 Rugby World Cup officials read latter title as reference to Ali Williams’ injury woes and praise overdue interest in the centrality of rugby to world cinema, just 18 months before most important sporting tournament of all time. An angry Snedden denies the nation is obsessed with the Cup.

APRIL

Pita Sharples pops up in UN Assembly in a Māori Television exclusive to pledge New Zealand commitment to the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People. Clearly singing from

the same hymn book, the Maori Party extols the DRIP to its supporters as the highest form of politics: “pure aspiration”; while the National Party reassures its supporters that the DRIP is toothless and non-binding: “pure aspiration”.

In international news, BP oil well explodes, spewing crude into Gulf of Mexico. Company insists “It’s a small spill on a big table” and activates emergency procedure to plug well with shredded remains of suppressed internal safety warnings.

MAY

Controversial Three Strikes Bill passes into law, to applause of ACT Law and Order spokesman David Garrett and fans of baseball everywhere.

Public march against opening Conservation Estate Schedule IV land to mining. Gerry Brownlee exhorts nation to dig for victory. Nation wins.

JUNE

MPs’ credit card and travel spending announced to taxpayer outrage. Big spender Chris Carter wins some sympathy for showing that at least $74.99 went on sending flowers to his bereaved partner.

At Football World Cup, lowly All Whites hold “Slamdunk” Slovakia, “Paramount” Paraguay, and “Invincible” Italy to draws, earning them the fearsome moniker “Giant-Non-Losers”. Only other undefeated participant is Paul the Oracle Octopus, who correctly predicts results.

In Trans-Tasman news, Kevin Rudd disappears from office overnight. Rudd is last heard asking “What’s that steel thing in my back and where the bloody hell’s Ju—?”

In wider international developments, John Key is revealed to be in secret talks with China to swap kiwis for pandas. Green co-leader Russell Norman, fresh from scuffle with Chinese security guards at Beehive, accuses Key of pandaring to human rights violators.

JULY

Chris Carter sends apparently suicidal tip-off letter warning of Labour leadership coup. Letter is in Carter’s characteristic handwriting and personally delivered to the Beehive messengers’ room across 200 metres of the most video-surveyed floor space in the country. Carter claims he would have said it with flowers but InterFlora had revoked his credit card.

In international news, Kevin Rudd recovers in hospital after surgical removal of the Julia Gillard. Fiji Law Society warns that “interim” regime’s dismissal of magistrates for rejecting regime’s corruption allegations constitutes interference with judiciary. Commodore Frank Bainimarama responds that the only interference is that by neocolonial bullies New Zealand and Australia, and threatens to extend the hectic schedule leading to elections in 2014 because of judiciary’s and public’s unacceptable expressions of opinions other than his own.

BP oil well continues to spew. In PR disaster, BP’s CEO testifies that he deserves his life back. BP’s board draws up dismissal papers and head-hunts Paul Reynolds for future apologies.

AUGUST

Heather Roy, ACT deputy and ex-Territorial, seems to sabotage her leader publicly and then complains of being bullied by him. In tense television appearance Hide and Roy make up but are swift to deny relationship is rosy, apparently fearing rumours of romance. Hide later privately remarks he hasn’t felt this uncomfortable with a woman since Dancing with the Stars.

In sports news, All Blacks sweep Tri Nations. Grim-faced rugby officials fear the team has peaked early just 13 months before the only tournament that matters.

In Chile, 33 trapped miners are contacted through tiny shaft left intact. Necessaries of life lowered to them include 33 mini-bibles, Prozac, and contracts for the film rights. Miners swear solemn oath of brotherhood pledging that if they survive they will share any film proceeds.

SEPTEMBER

In a busy news month, financial collapse of South Canterbury is followed by seismic collapse of whole province. Parliament unanimously rushes into law the Canterbury Earthquake Response and Recovery Bill, making Gerry Brownlee de facto emperor. Agitated legal commentators become delirious and are rushed to hospital.

David Garrett admits stealing the identity of a dead baby but claims it is the kind of youthful indiscretion that all 26-year-old lawyers are prone to. Garrett strikes out.

Overseas, the Commonwealth Games are under threat. India deploys three zillion soldiers to save Games from Pakistani insurgents, many apparently disguised as corrupt tradespeople, King Cobras or food-borne diseases. NZ offers to send three Hercules, Dame Margaret Bazley and Willie Apiata if we can find him. Indians reply that they would be happy with Paul Henry’s head on a plate after perceived anti-Indian comments. Games go ahead but NZ flag-bearer Irene van Dyk leads team right out of stadium at opening ceremony.

Paralysed by indecisiveness, Australia cannot correctly name the winner of either Australia’s Next Top Model or the general election, nor break a tie in the Aussie League finals. Commodore Bainimarama explains this is precisely the trouble with giving the people or independent judges choices, and offers to invade to restore order.

Among loved ones standing vigil at the Chilean mine, the sobbing wife and mistress of miner Yonni Barios discover each other’s existence and find they, too, have been shafted. Tears turn to rage.

OCTOBER

As income tax cuts and GST rise kick in, Labour boldly pledges to remove GST on fruit and vegetables. Although Phil Goff denies that drawing the line would be unworkably complex, he cannot answer whether tomatoes, being arguably both fruit and vegetable, will have the tax removed twice.

Paul the Oracle Octopus dies; world mourns. Paul Henry resigns; nation yawns.

At local body elections, voters lack patience to read to end of long alphabetical lists of names they have never heard of. Landslide victory follows for The Party of Candidates Whose Surnames Begin with A, B or C. In Auckland, Brown funkily raps Banks into defeat, while anti-anti-smacking campaigner Craig marches into a confused third.

Phil Goff opposes selling foreigners our farmland, since if we can no longer afford it they shouldn’t be able to either. Meanwhile, John “The Dealmaker” Key opens new market selling our legislative sovereignty. Warner Bros steal deal on legislation ousting courts from deeming Hobbit contractors to be employees. (Questions will later surface over status of the elf-employed.) Delirious legal commentators deteriorate further. Hospital press release saying they are in a “stable and satisfactory condition” terrifies everyone who understands medical euphemisms, since this clearly means that they are comatose but just not complaining about the food.

At the Commonwealth Games Australia “medals” 177 times but New Zealand medals only 36 times, proving that (a) Australia is bigger than us and (b) in English any noun can be verbed. Silver Ferns medal gold after van Dyk locates stadium.

Media frenzy as all Chilean miners freed, although the disgraced Yonni Barios first insists on a non-molestation order. Miners immediately defect from pact to split film rights, blaming intolerable pressure from human nature and fulfilling iPredict consensus that pact was always a goneburger.

NOVEMBER

Foreshore and Seabed Act returns cunningly disguised as Marine and Coastal Areas Bill. Sacred right of access to the courts is restored, provided iwi can perform poi dance on the head of a pin. Now, instead of everyone owning the foreshore, no-one does. Legal commentators, the only people who could have explained the difference, remain too sick to elucidate. All sides claim victory.

In US mid-terms, the Tea Party – the party that is not a party, based on economics that is not economics – successfully pledges to crowd hundreds of its candidates into government in order to reduce the size of government. However, fruits of victory turn to tea leaves in their mouths as they realise that a nuclear arsenal sufficient to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age cannot be financed by grassroots charitable donations, and may instead require actual taxation. Sarah Palin refudiates this.

Non-rugby obsessed Parliament passes World Cup Empowering Act letting Murray McCully non-judicially review his own Rugby World Cup Authority’s decisions, to applause of Liquor Licensing Trusts everywhere. Meanwhile Simon “People” Power announces streamlining of criminal justice system, to applause of Sensible Sentencing Trusts everywhere. Critics of Power’s speed and perceived populism feel provoked to query just how sacred the right of meaningful access to the courts is. Power responds that provocation is no longer a defence, urging critics to exercise right to silence while they still have it. Government claims ECan sacking and Hobbit and earthquake-recovery laws are mere exceptions from which no trend should be inferred.

Perspective is tragically restored by another disaster in the South Island, as the nation grieves for 29 men killed at Pike River mine.

DECEMBER

At Cancun Climate Summit, negotiators begin to sense political downside of oceans boiling, continents drowning and extreme weather mayhem. Surprise guest Gaia provides real-life PowerPoint of instructively horrific 2010/2011 examples: freezing of Europe, submerging of Pakistan and scorching of Russia, and inundation of Queensland, Sri Lanka and Brazil. Sceptics caution that these events, and the relentlessly upward-pointing graph of global mean temperatures, are mere exceptions from which no trend should be inferred.

Whistleblower website WikiLeaks releases more diplomatic cables. Revelations range from the predictable casual shooting of civilians to the outrageous suggestion that NZ Governments may have said one thing to China and another to His Highness the Dalai Lama.

In bizarre burst-condom incident, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange faces extradition from UK to Sweden over allegations of sex crimes, though Assange terms them “unprotected disclosures”.

 

JANUARY 2011

In the annual season for predictions, Wikipedia turns 10. Typically editorially unbiased and fact-checked entry appears declaring that if Asange [sic] is rendered to US to face death penalty then, as well as exemplifying “shooting the messenger” [q.v.], this will officially leave Jimmy Wales King of the World. Jealous FaceBook founder Mark Zuckerberg takes time off from latest lawsuit to unfriend Wikipedia on his own site, but FaceBook’s target, the market leader Google, responds by “Liking” this prediction.

In NZ, Rugby World Cup pundits mindful of fate of Paul the Oracle Octopus predict only that every side will claim underdog status – despite arguably superior track record of overdog. Revived legal commentators forecast that referendum on MMP will be won by Winston Peters, and that a general election will be held by December, after which Sir Peter Leitch will ask Willie Apiata to form a government. Dame Alison Holst will have to be content to win second MasterChef NZ.

Key Points:

*       John Key forecast to be re-elected, requiring one coalition partner

*       Economic outlook worsens with double-dip recession now expected to continue through March quarter, and rising expectations it may extend into June quarter

*       OCR strongly expected to be cut on 10 March and expectations for 90-day yields and floating-mortgage rates fall, despite inflation expectations rising

*       Greens, New Zealand First and probability of UnitedFuture winning Ohariu trending down

*       Harawira strongly expected to win Te Tai Tokerau and probability of New Left Party approaches 50%

*       Contracts for Manurewa, Maungakiekie, Rodney, Waitaki and National’s Rodney selection to be launched at 2.00 pm today

Commentary:

This week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, continues to forecast that John Key will be able to form a government following this year’s General Election – but whereas last week his National Party was forecast for the first time to be able to govern alone the market now again indicates he will need at least one coalition partner.

Mr Key’s forecast re-election is despite worsening expectations for economic data.  The market now indicates a 60% probability that Statistics New Zealand will report on 24 March that New Zealand was in a double-dip recession in the December 2010 quarter, up from 52% last week and 48% the week before.

Looking ahead, there is now a 58% probability the recession will extend into the March 2011 quarter (up from 40% immediately following the Christchurch earthquake last week and 16% the week prior to the earthquake) and a 39% probability it will extend into the June 2011 quarter (up from 18% last week and 6% the week before).  The probabilities the economy will be in recession in the September 2011 and December 2011 quarters remain steady at 18% and 14% respectively.

Inflation expectations have risen.  Annual inflation is expected to be 4.5% for the March quarter and 5.0% for the June 2011 quarter, up from 4.9% last week.  The probability unleaded petrol will exceed $2.20 per litre in 2011 has increased from 63% last week to 77% this week, while the probability it will exceed $2.30 per litre has now reached 43% compared with just 30% immediately following the earthquake.

Despite this, there are growing expectations that interest rates will fall.  The market now indicates a 70% probability the Reserve Bank will lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from its current 3.00% on 10 March, up from 11% immediately following the earthquake last week, and up from less than 1% prior to the earthquake.(1)   The probability the bank will hold the OCR on 10 March is now down to 28% compared with 80% immediately following the earthquake and 98% prior to the earthquake.  The bank is then expected to hold the OCR on 28 April (86% probability) and 9 June (84% probability).

Expected yields for 90-day bank bills have also plunged.  Immediately prior to the earthquake, the expected 90-day rate on 1 June 2011 was 3.37%, but today this is down to 2.81%.  The expected 90-day rate on 1 September 2011 has fallen from 3.53% to 3.16%, while the expected rate on 1 December 2011 has fallen from 3.71% to 3.44%.

Average floating-rate mortgages are broadly believed to have reached their peak.  The probability they will reach 6.50% in 2011, from their current 6.39%, is now down to 40%, from 84% last week and 88% the week before.  The probability they will reach 6.75% is now just 21%, compared with 48% immediately following the earthquake and 69% prior to it.  The probability they will go as high as 7.00% is now down to 12%, from 21% last week and 40% prior to the earthquake.

The market continues to indicate a 97% probability that the election will be held on Saturday 26 November.

Between now and then, all party leaders continue to be expected to retain their positions.  The most vulnerable continue to be Labour’s Phil Goff and the Maori Party’s Tariana Turia, but with Mr Goff having just a 13% probability of being replaced (down from 14% last week) and Mrs Turia just a 12% probability of being replaced (down from 13% last week).

Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 69% probability of retaining Epsom for his party (up from 68% last week) and UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne a 53% probability of being re-elected in Ohariu (down from 60% last week and 65% the week before).

Winston Peters is not expected to be elected to Parliament, with just a 28% probability he will be back, steady compared with last week.   There is a 28% probability he will stand in the Epsom electorate.

There is an 89% probability newly Independent MP Hone Harawira will win Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party, up from 72% last week and 48% the week before.  Labour is expected to retain Ikaroa-Rawhiti (55% probability, steady compared with last week) while Labour’s challenger in Te Tai Tonga, Rino Tirikatene, has a 50% probability of defeating the Maori Party incumbent Rahui Katene, compared with 51% last week.  Mrs Katene has a 48% probability of winning compared with 47% last week.

The probability that a new left-wing party will be formed involving at least two of Mr Harawira, former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten and former Green MP Sue Bradford remains below 50%, but has risen sharply since Mr Harawira’s departure from the Maori Party to 47% from 34% last week.  The probability of a new right-wing party involving former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash is down to 14% compared with 15% last week.

Forecast party vote shares are: National 46.5% (steady compared with last week), Labour 31.9% (down from 32.3%), the Greens 7.0% (down from 7.2% last week and 8.0% the week before), Act 4.0% (up from 2.5% last week), New Zealand First 3.2% (down from 3.4% last week and 4.3% the week before), UnitedFuture 2.1% (up from 1.7% last week and 1.5% the week before) and the Maori Party 2.0% (down from 2.2% last week).

Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament:  National 59 MPs, Labour 41 MPs, Greens 9 MPs, Act 5 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and Mr Harawira.  There would be 121 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.  National’s Mr Key could govern with the support of one of Act, UnitedFuture or the Maori Party.

Because of growing speculation about the possibility of a new left-wing party, iPredict has also analysed what would happen were that party to receive 2% of the total vote (“all others” currently stands at 2.4%) and were Mr Harawira to win his seat for the new party.  Under this scenario, Parliament would be as follows:  National 58 MPs, Labour 40 MPs, Greens 9 MPs, Act 5 MPs, the Maori Party 3 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and the new left-wing party 2 MPs.  There would be 120 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 61 MPs on confidence and supply.  Mr Key could govern with the support of one of Act, UnitedFuture or the Maori Party.

The result in the most marginal Maori electorate, Te Tai Tonga, does not affect the overall political situation.

There continues to be no politically plausible combination that would allow a Labour-led government to be formed, with there now being an 83% probability there will be a National Party prime minister after the election, up from 81% last week and 79% the week before.

In electorates for which bundles of stocks were launched last week, Mr Key has a 98% probability of retaining his Helensville seat, National’s Shane Ardern a 95% probability of retaining Taranaki-King Country, National’s Phil Heatley a 90% probability of retaining Whangarei and National’s Eric Roy a 79% probability of retaining Invercargill despite competition from former Labour MP Lesley Soper.

Looking at marginal seats other than Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Ohariu and Te Tai Tonga mentioned above, electorates where the predicted winner has less than 65% probability of winning are: New Plymouth (62% probability of being won by Labour’s Andrew Little from National’s Jonathan Young, up from 60% last week); Otaki (63% probability of being retained by National’s Nathan Guy over Labour’s Darren Hughes, steady compared with last week); Waitakere (62% probability of being won by National’s Paula Bennett over Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni, up from 58% last week); and West Coast-Tasman (53% probability of being retained by National’s Chris Auchinvole over Labour’s Damien O’Connor, down from 55% last week).

There is a more than 99% probability National’s Jami-Lee Ross will win the Botany by-election, up from 98% last week.

There is an 80% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, steady compared with last week.

iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington.  Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz

The company will be providing full election coverage this year, including of every electorate race in the country.  Bundles of contracts for every electorate will be launched progressively through to the end of March.  Contract bundles will be launched at 2.00pm today for the Manurewa, Maungakiekie, Rodney and Waitaki electorates.

A contract bundle will also be launched at 2.00pm today asking who will be selected as the National Party’s candidate in the Rodney electorate: John Kirikiri, Mark Mitchell, Christopher Penk, Brent Robinson, Scott Simpson or other.

The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists.  This week’s was taken at 9.33 am today.

(1) The contract is worded “Reserve Bank to increase OCR by more than 50 basis points, or lower it, on 10 March 2011,” but it has been assumed the market rates the probability of an increase of 75 basis points or more at zero.

That is very well done. Thumbs up Dom Post/Stuff.

Brian Edwards blogged:

John, Your mindless, bullying, tirade against ‘moon man’ Ken Ring on tonight’s Campbell Live was perhaps the worst piece of egotistical, self-important, out of control, closed-minded, biased, unprofessional  non-interviewing I have seen in more than 40 years of New Zealand television.

I have no brief for Mr Ring or his theories, but after watching your treatment of him tonight, I have considerably more respect for him as the reasonable exponent of an admittedly controversial point of view than I have for you as an interviewer.

What mattered to you in this exchange was not what he had to say, but what you had to say. And since he thought the process was meant to involve his being critically questioned on statements he had made and being given reasonable opportunity to reply, he had every right to complain when you preferred to deny him that opportunity by shouting him down. It was, quite simply, appalling.

This has led to a huge debate with 113 comments to date on Brian and Judy’s blog. Opinion is divided between those who say that as Ring is a charlatan, Campbell did good (Russell Brown noticeably in this camp) and those who say he didn’t let Ring even explain himself.

I like the take of Not PC:

If it’s true that Campbell bullied Ring, the greatest damage done by the bullying is …. that it didn’t give Ring a chance to bury himself in his own words. That’s surely the point of good interviewing. To let your audience see for themselves when a flake is being interviewed.

And in bullying rather than burying his interviewee, Campbell would have allowed Ring to gain his viewers’ sympathy instead of their contempt. Surely not at all what he intended.

Not PC also has some great links and graphs from scientists showing how Mr Ring has predicted earthquakes, well pretty much for every second day.

I didn’t see the interview, but what do people who saw it think?

NZPA report:

A West Coast man who went to earthquake-hit Christchurch and joined the urban search and rescue effort there has been remanded in custody for a month after being charged with falsely representing himself as a rescue team member.

Police were concerned that the man’s lack of training or credentials could put members of the public and other search and rescue staff at risk, Christchurch Court News website reported.

The man, Jason Henry Bevington, was also charged with possession of offensivassuming the e weapons after knives, a baton, and an axe were found in his car.

Mr Bevington has not been found guilty yet of anything, but assuming the arrest was warranted, then it makes you wonder about this story from 2010:

As anger starts to mount on the West Coast a Blackball couple believe their house may have been trashed because they work for Pike River Coal.

Jason Bevington and Jude Washington discovered thousands of dollars worth of damage to their home soon after finding out Jude had been made redundant.

Bevington and Washington say they do not know who is responsible, but believe they may have been targeted because they work for Pike River – the company whose mine claimed the lives of 29 men in November. …

“What we’re concerned about is that this could be target…two people working at Pike, it could be. [We] don’t know,” Bevington said.

Washington said they came home to the mess after a “really awful day” and they did have reasons for their suspicions.

She claimed the company itself was targeted in the days following the initial explosion.

“Very early on we started receiving emails from frustrated people – nobody in particular they wouldn’t sign their names – saying “you murdered these people, you shouldn’t have done this, you should’ve done that, you’re taking time… You should rot in Hell”,” she said.

However, Pike River has denied receiving any threatening emails, and while the union admits tensions are running high, Greg O’Connell from the EPMU said he did not think workers who had lost their jobs would be responsible.

I wonder if the Police ever worked out who trashed their house?

UPDATE 22 April 2011: This thread is now closed.

Most analysts think Gaddafi has lost control of so much of Libya, that his downfall or demise is just a matter of time. I hope so.

The death toll is in the thousands, and those lives could have been saved if Gaddafi had done a Muburak. Of course the difference may just be that the Egyptian Army was less willing to kill it own citizens. To be fair most of the Libyan Army has been reluctant also.

A part of me sees some good from his decision to try and supress the pro-democracy movement by arms. Because it looks like he will fail, and will depart office (or life) reviled internationally.

This may prove a useful lesson to other dictatorships in the Middle East, and encourage them to peacefully engage with pro-democracy movements – not try and crush them.

0849: There will be some sort of inquiry into the earthquake – not into why it happened of course, but into why buildings that had been deemed safe collapsed, and also generally into lessons we can learn from the disaster.

0847: Just seen quote from Key that ” the earthquakes were five to eight times more significant to the New Zealand economy than Hurricane Katrina was to the United States”. NZIER said they now expect GDP growth in 2011 to be 0.3% only.

Death toll now 154.

The volunteer efforts are inspiring – the Student Volunteer Army, the Rangiora Earthquake Express and eq.org.nz – to name just three. They all started in much the same way – one person has an idea about how to make a difference, and others get in behind to make it a reality.

The SVA gave an update for Monday, which summarised is:

• A battalion of more the 1100 volunteers in 21 buses continued working to clear silt. Today the focus was on Dallington, though two buses diverted to Aranui to tackle specific projects.
• 315 Squadrons have registered with SVA so far. These are groups of three to five people, with their own transport and equipment, who we assign to jobs coming in from across the city. We have over 2000 jobs registered so far and are working through these at a rate of 180 to 230 per day
• The third operation, Street Team, an innovation inspired by Te Puni Kokiri, aiming to provide face to face information in those parts of the eastern suburbs still without power, where other forms of communication are not working – over the past two days we have delivered 80,000 fliers in areas that are difficult to reach because of the damage that has been done
• In the past 36 hours, 1200 people have registered to help online on the SVA website, www.sva.org.nz, including approximately 500 with specialist skills. SVA is collaborating with Civil Defence, which is able to log in to this database. More than 23 000 people have now joined our online network.

And again don’t forget the two minutes silence at 12.51 pm today.

A reader writes:

The WCC are coordinating a Stand for Wellington in Civic Square tomorrow at 12.51 pm – gathering any time from 12.30pm.

A number of us are going and wearing either black and red or yellow and black (people obviously can wear anything they like) and some may even go wild and bring balloons.

I have been given your contact details as you may decide this is a useful enough event to market through your blog.

Originally we were wanting to do something that would bring cantabrians together – those who live in Wellington but after John Key announced the two minute silence we decided to expand it to everyone.

Afterall everyone has been affected in some way.

What a very good idea. Wellingtonians can head down to Civic Square if you can in red and black, or head to Parliament Grounds where there will be a tribute also.

Also don’t forget the two minutes silence at 1251. Hopefully radio will broadcast this, so even motorists can pull over and observe the two minutes.

Greatly enjoyed the opening night of Our Man in Havana at Circa on Saturday night. The play runs until Saturday 26 March.

The play is adapted from the book of the same name, by the great novelist Graham Greene. Greene wrote many good spy novels, and it turned out that during this time he was in fact an agent for M16. Kim Philby was his supervisor at one stage.

The book, and the play, are about a vacuum cleaner salesman who is recruited by the British Secret Service to spy for them. He has no intelligence to report, so he starts to invent informants and intelligence. He even sends back photos of vacuum cleaner parts, declaring them to be weapons of mass destruction. Note the WMD term is actually used by Greene, and this was in the pre-Castro Cuba.

Greene got the inspiration for his book from Joan Pujol Garcia, a Spaniard who was a double agent in WWII for the British and the Germans. He supplied masses of disinformation to the Germans, based on a fictitious network of seven agents and 19 sub-agents. He got an MBE from the British for his services, but ironically after the war ran into one of his German handlers who gave him the Iron Cross for his work.  They never realised he duped them.

Anyway enough about the novel, how was the Circa play?

I thought the play was a smashing good time. The four actors played 31 parts between them, plus they all took a turn as the narrator. The quick fire costume changes were done wonderfully, and the humour was infectious.

Jeff Kingsford-Brown played the lead of Wormold, but also the MI6 chief. His performance was excellent, and he was the glue of the show.

John Wraight’s main role was as Hawthorne, who recruits Wormold. Wraight has a very expressive face (he was superb in the Robin Hood pantomime), and he’s a natural on the stage.

Simon Vincent played a total of 14 roles from the Manuel-like Lopez to The Queen. His appearance as The Queen was almost painfully funny.

Last but not least Jessica Robinson managed to convincingly play both 16 year old daughter Milly and Wormold’s secretary Beatrice.

The photo above (taken by Stephen A’Court) shows a checkers game between Wormold and the Policeman Segura. Everytime you took a checker, you drank the bottle. I must try that game at some stage. The idea of course was to get Segura drunk so he could steal his gun.

I found the play very enjoyable, something most adults could enjoy. The first half was a bit slow to get moving, but the second half was action packed as events moved to a climax. Well worth seeing.

The Victoria University Great Debate is on Tuesday March 1st at 6.30 at the Student Union Building’s Hunter Lounge at Victoria University.

The moot is “that there should be a universal liquor allowance for students“.

For the affirmative:

• Simon Bridges MP
• James Nokise (two times Billy T Award Nominee)
• Josh Cameron – allround funny debater

For the Negative:

• Darren Hughes MP
• Jim Stanton (One half of Wellington’s Comediettes)
• Jerome Chandrahasen – stalwart of the Great Debate and Billy T nominee.

The debate is always a very enjoyable affair. Tickets will cost $10, and you can pay at the door.

1651: An initial support package for employers and employees has been announced. Employers will get $500 gross per week per FT employee and $300 per PT employee, to be paid to their employees. If an employer ceases business, then employees will get $400 a week net FT and $240 a week net PT paid directly to them. This is backdated to the quake and initially is for six weeks.

1005: Have not blogged previously on this, but huge kudos to Owen Glenn for his personal $1m donation to the earthquake recovery. Despite his appealling treatment by some, he has remained a good friend to New Zealand.

Just noticed that Stuff has a nice page of profiles on the victims known to date. They seem determined that no victim will be just an anonymous death, which is great.

At a macro level we deal with numbers such as 150 dead and growing. At a family level, every death is a tragedy which leaves a family with an emotional burden they never will fully recover from.

John Key has announced:

Prime Minister John Key today launched the Christchurch Earthquake Appeal, a global fundraiser for the recovery effort in the city and the Canterbury region.

“It’s vital we reach as many people throughout the world as possible who want to help. This isn’t just New Zealand’s tragedy – the February 22 earthquake affected countless people internationally.

“Like all Cantabrians and fellow New Zealanders, I have been humbled by the offers of help and assistance pouring in from individuals, organisations and governments around the world. This new Appeal gives people another means of donating to the people of Christchurch and the recovery effort.

Mr Key said the Appeal was designed to complement those already established, such as the funds organised by the Red Cross and the Salvation Army.

“It’s my intention that the Government will work alongside these organisations to make sure the funds are used in the best possible way.

It will be useful, internationally, to have one official appeal that can be donated to. I expect much of the money donated will end up with NGOs like the Red Cross.

“I am also pleased to announce that the proceeds raised for the earthquake recovery from Saturday’s special Lotto draw will go directly to the Appeal,” said Mr Key.

I think I’ll buy a few tickets. Hopefully the major prize winners might also donate a portion of their winnings.

Mr Key said he was encouraging New Zealanders to give generously to Christchurch.

“Every little bit helps – every donation, no matter how small, will be welcomed.”

Donations can be made at www.christchurchearthquakeappeal.govt.nz

Telecom, Vodafone and 2 Degrees mobile customers can text chch to 933 to make an automatic $3 donation.

Donations can also be made via internet banking, or at any branch of New Zealand’s retail banks, by depositing into account number 03-0251-0039807-00.

Go to www.facebook.com/ChristchurchEarthquakeAppeal to find out more.

Good to see social media being used by the Government for the appeal.

From the PM:

Prime Minister John Key has asked that all of New Zealand observes two minutes’ silence for the victims of Canterbury’s devastating 6.3 magnitude earthquake.

“This may be New Zealand’s single most tragic event.

“I am calling on all New Zealanders to stop and remember those who have lost their lives, those who are missing, and the hundreds of people who are mourning family and friends.”

The quake struck on Tuesday 22 February 2011 at 12.51pm.

“At 12.51pm this Tuesday, the 1st of March, I am asking that New Zealand stops for two minutes as a sign of unity for the people of Canterbury who are enduring a tragedy beyond what most of us can imagine.

“Canterbury will recover and we will do all we can to ensure it does.

“For now we must do all we can to show its people that all of New Zealand grieves with them.”

I’ll do a reminder on Tuesday also.

This is the lovely Jed Wilson-Carver, who (allegedly) steals generators while people lie dying in the streets. I covered his criminal past yesterday. Stuff reports:

Fisherman Owen Anthony Jackson, 23, and his co-accused, Jed Wilson-Calver, 22, unemployed, raised their middle fingers to the court after Judge Crosbie denied them bail.

Not even a hint of remorse. The maximum sentence is seven years, if found guilty. Seven years sounds good to me.

In the meantime a viewer sent in a modified photo of big tough Jed.