General Debate 21 December 2023
I blogged these predictions in December 2022.
Overall score is 16/20. I need to do more edgy ones for 2024, which I’ll publish in a few days.
Here’s the key takeaways from yesterday:
Te What Ora has finally published data for the Sep 23 quarter and the percentage of ED patients seen within six hours has dropped from 72.3% a year ago to 67.6%. Under National is was almost at 95%. So Labour have managed to go from 1 in 20 waiting over six hours to more than six in 20.
More shocking is if you look at the absolute numbers. At the old level of 95% seen within six hours, that means only 17,000 ED patients would wait more than six hours. But the actual number in the latest quarter was over 110,000. That’s 90,000 more NZers waiting more than six hours at ED.
Curse Labour for removing this as a national health target in 2017. It will now take a lot of time and effort to turn it around and get it back to acceptable levels.
Hands up if you have ever heard of Iona Holsted? She is the Secretary for Education in NZ and earns close to $600,000 for ensuring that we are going through the worst crisis for our children and young people within our schools.
Nicola Willis is currently trying to save money on budget items. Schools in NZ would not miss any of the top 3000 MOE bureaucrats and she could save $300,000,000 by simply asking them all to re-apply for the positions on the basis of how they improve the outcomes for children.
Alwyn Poole
[email protected]
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/
Shane Reti announced:
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti is appointing a Crown observer to Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora, citing significant ongoing challenges around the 2022 health reforms.
“I have carefully considered the hard work which has gone on around Health NZ since its establishment,” Dr Reti said.
“The incoming government is resetting a clear focus on health outcomes. The Labour government failed to acknowledge a health crisis and failed in its duty to provide adequate oversight and support during a period of massive upheaval for health.
“I am confident that the appointment of a Crown observer will assist the HNZ Board and management to work with the board to overcome a range of issues, including health workforce and hospital wait times.
“I am therefore appointing Ken Whelan as Crown observer to work with the Board to ensure it delivers the outcomes expected by the coalition government.
“Mr Whelan commences his role immediately, and will independently advise me through formal quarterly reporting, and other updates as necessary.
“He has more than 30 years of health care leadership experience and has previously served as a Crown monitor at Counties Manukau and Waikato DHBs.
The appointment of Mr Whelan looks very good – someone with huge experience.
But it is still unusual.
I may be wrong, but I can’t recall a crown observer being appointed previously for an entity solely appointed by central Government. You see them with local government, schools and the former DHBs (which were partially elected).
If you think the board needs monitoring, why not just appoint new board members? I’m guessing, but presumably they wanted some stability so have gone for a crown observer.
The November 2023 Roy Morgan is out.
Party Vote
Governments
Direction
The party vote for Labour is the lowest ever in the history of the Roy Morgan poll.
VUW reports:
Dean Knight, Associate Professor of Law at Te Kauhanganui Tātai Ture—Faculty of Law, was announced as the winner of the Critic and Conscience of Society award for 2023. …
Throughout his career, Dr Knight has consistently provided insights on the operation of government, promoting the proper use of power and holding to account those in positions of authority. Over the last two years in particular, he has led crucial debate within areas of public law that has resulted in real shifts in government policy, most notably the legality of the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the proposed entrenchment clause in the Water Services (Three Waters) legislation.
Dean has done some wonderful work as a constitutional lawyer, through his Twitter account.
Dr Knight is proud of his independence and strives to be non-partisan –and his track record shows criticism and compliments across the political spectrum. But he’s quick to point out that he does not claim to be wholly neutral. “When we engage in matters of government and constitutional law, we necessarily bring some of our own ideological baggage—we have a vision of what the ideal state should be and that ideology in part shapes our sense of what good governance looks like,” he explains. “So I can’t be neutral. But I won’t be partisan. And, be assured, I will be one hundred percent robust. Those are my rules of engagement for entering the civic fray.”
I like this explanation of how you can be non-partisan, even if you are not neutral in terms of your outlook.
Chris Bishop announced:
“A recent report by the Treasury and Ministry for Housing and Urban Development found that Kāinga Ora’s level of debt had grown from $2.7 billion in 2018 to $12.3 billion in June of this year. Advice released last year suggests that if Kāinga Ora continues on its current trajectory, their debt would reach $28.9 billion by 2033.
“I am deeply concerned about the operating deficit which is already at $520 million in 22/23 and which is forecast to continue increasing. This deficit has a direct impact on OBEGAL and continues to put pressure on the return to OBEGAL surplus.
“Since coming to office Ministers have received further worrying advice about the financial situation of Kāinga Ora. We are not releasing that information at this time as it is commercially sensitive, but it confirms that an independent review is the right course of action.
You have to wonder how bad it is, for an independent review to be needed?
An interesting post by Dr Lawrie Knight, who makes the case that Chiefs who signed the Treaty of Waitangi were aware they were ceding power and sovereignty, based on their actual speeches at the signing.
Also Liam Hehir makes a valuable point:
Imagine if all the world’s historians met and agreed that William the Conqueror’s claim to England was comprehensively disproved. Would it follow that everything built upon the foundation of the Norman Conquest is devoid of legitimacy? The castles, the cathedrals, the legal structures, the very fabric of the English and then British state – are they all tainted by the original sin of an illegitimate claim to rule?
As far as I know nobody has ever seriously proposed replacing the modern British state, including Parliament, cabinet government and the common law with a Witenagemot that also appointed the king from among the noble Anglo-Saxon families to administer justice according to the Danelagh and other customary laws. Too much water has passed under the bridge for that and, however shaky the nature of William’s claim, it is not the basis on which the British state today draws its legitimacy.
The same applies to the Treaty of Waitangi. It was a definitive step in a process that ultimately led to Britain establishing sovereignty over the entirety of New Zealand. But it has not been the thing that has sustained that sovereignty since 1840.
As Liam says, the Treaty was a step towards sovereignty, but the US, Canada and Australia are all examples of sovereign governments despite no treaty or equivalent.
Steven Joyce writes:
he interisland ferry decision was the wrong one from the start. As Finance Minister in 2017, I clearly recall being advised that rail-enabled ferries would be a big, expensive mistake in this day and age. All over the world they were being retired, and virtually nobody was building new ones. The market had long since voted with its feet and we should too. Interestingly, at that time KiwiRail agreed.
The only fiscally responsible move was roll-on, roll-off ferries, which do a fine job of shifting freight and people between islands and continents all around the world. With most freight now in containers, getting it from shore to ship and ship to shore is simple and easy. In 2017, it made no sense for New Zealand to be the last country in the world to build ferries with train tracks on them.
However, the Ardern Government knew better, as they claimed in so many areas. One thing that united the new coalition partners was a nostalgic love for all things heavy rail. They swiftly sent the message to KiwiRail that they wanted rail-enabled ferries, and would pay for them. Never mind that four of the five current ships on the strait are not rail-enabled and have no need to be – it was time to go back to the future. The rest of the world was wrong.
So the Government effectively mandated that replacement ferries would have to cost so much.
It is absolutely no surprise that the cost has blown out from $775 million to $3b in just five years. And all this for an Interislander operation that had revenue of just $151m in the last financial year and a surplus of $12m.
That’s a stunning figure. The left are complaining that the new Government won’t spend $3b on an operation which has revenue of just 5% of that, and profit of 0.4% of the cost.
Stuff reports:
A federal jury ordered Rudy Giuliani on Friday to pay US$148 million (NZ$238m) to two election workers who sued him for defamation, asserting that the former attorney for Donald Trump exposed them to a life-altering torrent of abuse and trauma by promoting false claims that they stole the 2020 election from the former president in Georgia.
The panel of five women and three men in Washington deliberated for more than nine hours before entering a stunning penalty that was more than three times the US$48m (NZ$77m) sought by the workers, in the first large judgment against an individual in Trump’s orbit for propagating the myth that vote fraud tipped the US election to President Biden.
If a jury gives three times the amount sought, that suggests they saw the case as beyond redemption for Rudy. He filed to provide even a shred of evidence for his outlandish claims.
The lives of the two women, and their families, were made hellish by these lies. It is good to see consequences.
A guest post by David Garrett:
I was pleased to see that both National and ACT have pledged to reinstate the highly effective three strikes (3S) law. What concerns me is that rather than recognizing the “manifestly unjust” proviso as needing clarification, for some odd reason ACT’s coalition agreement with the Nats provides that the definition of a strike offence needs clarifying. God only knows where they came up with that idea – one of the features of the New Zealand version of the law which differentiates it from the Californian version is that there is absolutely no ambiguity regarding what is and is not a strike.
To avoid the injustices which unquestionably arose from the ambiguity of the law in California – where relatively minor offences could become “technical felonies” and thus strike offences – I determined from the beginning that there must be no such ambiguity here, so what became s.86A of the 3S law listed all of the strike offences. They are all offences of serious violence attracting a maximum sentence of seven years or more. If it’s not on the list, it cannot be a strike. Not ever. So as I say I cannot see how whoever drafted ACT’s agreement can have thought the definition needs “clarifying”. Perhaps they mean they need to add certain offences – such as burglary – to the list. The Act was deliberately so drafted that no other changes would be required other than the addition of a new offence.
ACT has pushed for making burglary a strike offence – something I absolutely agree with. But they have also suggested that a separate 3S law covering burglary is necessary – it isn’t, unless they propose something different from the exponential three stage regime the orginal law provided for.
Back in 2010, we said the purpose of the law was two-fold: to deter those who were capable of deterrence, and for those unwilling or unable to change their violent behavior, to keep them away from the rest of us for as long as possible. In the 12 years the law was in force, there were about 13,000 first strikers, 650 second strikers and 25 third strikers. Those figures provide an excellent example of what is called “specific deterrence”, i.e. deterrence of a certain group or class of people, in this case strike offenders. This is different from “general deterrence” which means – for example – that the prospect of prison is supposed to be a deterrent for the rest of us.
What is more important than raw numbers is a comparison of strike offending for a period – let’s say ten years – prior to the law coming into effect vs. the ten years after. For reasons best known to themselves, Justice officials were always very reluctant to keep stats on strike offending – I personally believe they were afraid of their fixed ideological position – that it would not work – being disproved. To be fair, the National governments after 2010 were also not keen on closely monitoring the effects of the law or keeping reliable and informative stats.
Opinions on the change in striker numbers pre and post 3S are various; some commentators have said there was close to a 40% reduction in second and third striker offending after June 2010 when the law came into force as compared to the previous ten years. In a briefing paper to the Select Committee considering the Bill repealing 3S, Justice noted rather grudgingly that there was “a statistically significant reduction” in such offending. If anyone has some better numbers than that most unsatisfactory statement, please let us know in the comments.
So much for deterrence. What we do know is that over 650 offenders – the second and third strikers – spent longer in jail that they would otherwise have absent 3S. That was the second limb of 3S in action: incarcerating for longer periods those who would not or could not modify their behavior than hitherto. Of the 25 odd third strikers virtually none of them – including none of the murderers – faced the full force of the law as parliament intended to be the case. Instead in all cases, it was determined that it would be “manifestly unjust” for them to be imprisoned for the maximum period prescribed for the offence in question. In short, the “manifestly unjust” proviso – insisted on by National – was re-written by the judges of the Court of Appeal.
The manifestly unjust proviso
The “manifestly unjust” proviso (the proviso) in the 3S law was lifted word for word from s.102 of the Sentencing Act, which deals with sentencing for murder. For clarity, the relevant section reads as follows:
102 Presumption in favour of life imprisonment for murder
(1) An offender who is convicted of murder must be sentenced to imprisonment for life unless, given the circumstances of the offence and the offender, a sentence of imprisonment for life would be manifestly unjust.
Section 102 (1) allows a judge in appropriate cases to depart from the presumption of life imprisonment for murder and instead impose a lesser sentence – in theory at least, the sentence need not even be imprisonment.
In the 21 years the Sentencing Act has been in force I am only aware of a handful of cases in which the proviso has been used to avoid a life sentence for murder. While I stand to be corrected, I believe that all of those handful of cases have been where one elderly spouse kills his or her terminally ill mate at the latter’s request, or where there is a murder-suicide pact that is only partially successful in that only one spouse dies.
While some will disagree, in my view the application of the proviso in such rare and unusual cases is entirely justified in a just and compassionate society. But here’s the rub: when the 3S law was passed, everyone commenting on the proviso assumed that it would be applied exactly as it was in s.102 (1) – i.e. only in very rare and unusual cases.
One Law Society worthy, now a DCJ, wrote an impassioned piece for the Law Journal lamenting the fact that the proviso was an inadequate guarantee against injustice. He clearly thought – as I and Judith Collins and everyone else did – that third strikers being given the benefit of the proviso would only happen very rarely, and certainly not in every single case of murder.
So how does Parliament now ensure that the judges follow the new law? To be quite honest, I don’t know if that is even possible. Perhaps the new law could include a specific section spelling out the meaning of the proviso: e.g. “this sub-section shall only be available to a convicted prisoner in the rarest and most unusual of cases”. Perhaps a better approach would be to include a sub-section which said “this proviso is to be applied in exactly the same manner, and using the same criteria, as it is applied in s.102 (1) of this Act”.
Would either or both of those additions ensure that judges applying 3S 2.0 did what parliament intended? Frankly I have my doubts. The original proviso was clear enough – but activist judges rewrote it. If they could do that, they could rewrite the proviso in the new legislation now matter how carefully it is worded. Several commenters here have suggested that we need a “clean out” of activist judges. While such an outcome would certainly be desirable, it is simply not going to happen – our system of judicial appointments does not allow it. Perhaps all we can do is be more choosey regarded who is appointed as a judge. They should all be people who fully recognise that under our system parliament is sovereign, and their job is to apply the law, not rewrite it as they think it should be.
Stuff reports:
Let’s Get Wellington Moving will be dissolved, with ministers and local government announcing today they had agreed to end the initiative.
LGWM was one of those that sounded good in principle, but failed to work in practice. It had three masters – WCC, GWRC and NZTA but no real authority.
It was also confirmed today that central government will build and fund the Basin Reserve upgrade and second Mt Victoria tunnel; while the city council will bring the Golden Mile project in-house.
These are both excellent decisions. Having the Basin and Mt Vic tunnel as a sole project of the central Government means it will actually happen, and will help unclog SH1. Leaving the Golden Mile project to WCC means they have to somehow justify to ratepayers spending over $150 million on a project bitterly opposed by the majority of the businesses it claims to be for.
Stuff reports:
A teenager who raped a woman he had never met at knifepoint in Albert Park has been sentenced to two years and two months in jail.
The now-18 year-old appeared at the Auckland District Court on Friday having earlier pleaded guilty to charges of rape, threatening to kill and two charges of aggravated robbery.
The teenager’s lawyer asked for discounts amounting to 110% and an end sentence of home detention, so her client can continue with sex offender rehabilitation.
How can you ask for 110% discount? Does that mean they actually get rewarded for raping someone?
But Judge Claire Ryan refused on the basis it would be too lenient. While she granted discounts of 77%, she sentenced him to prison and called his offending “disgusting and disgraceful”.
A 77% discount is massive. National plans to change the law to maximise discounts to 40%.
She started with a sentence of 11 years and one month but provided a total discount of 77%, taking time off for early guilty plea, previous clean record, efforts at rehabilitation, youth, remorse and time on electronically monitored bail.
From 11 years down to barely two years. There will be more victims.
Matthew Hooton writes:
Yesterday’s shock 0.3 per cent decline in GDP in just the September quarter makes New Zealand the worst-performing economy in the developed world.
Even then, the result was inflated by record net migration, despite yet another massive brain-drain.
Per person, GDP fell an extraordinary 0.9 per cent in just three months.
On an annual basis, GDP fell 0.6 per cent. That compares with our main trading partners all growing respectably over the same period: Australia up 2.2 per cent; the US up 3.0 per cent; and China up 4.9 per cent. …
It’s too easy to blame the Ardern-Hipkins Government alone for yesterday’s calamity.
Any remaining vestige of integrity it had was shattered by Wednesday’s Auditor-General’s report on its $12 billion pre-Covid New Zealand Upgrade Programme and the $3b Covid-era Shovel-Ready Programme.
So much money wasted which could have done so much good, if spent well.
Stuff reports:
Former Crown-Māori Relations Minister Kelvin Davis will retire as an MP, finishing up on Waitangi Day.
The senior Labour MP, former deputy leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, told Stuff he had known for some time that this would be his last term in Parliament – but losing the electorate of Te Tai Tokerau to Te Pāti Māori candidate Mariameno Kapa-Kingi meant he was able to leave before the term was up.
Davis, who had also served as minister of Corrections and Oranga Tamariki, said whānau and friends told him it was important to return to Waitangi once more as an MP. It would also give him the opportunity to deliver a valedictory speech in late January, when Parliament resumes for the new year.
I recall donating to Kelvin’s campaign in 2014, to help him beat Hone Harawira. It shows how far things have moved on, that today Te Pati Maori is arguably more radical than Hone and Mana was.
I hope he has a productive career post-Parliament. I suspect we will see several other Labour List MPs leave in the next 12 months. Grant Robertson may be next if he gets appointed Otago University Vice-Chancellor.
Stuff reports:
The prime minister has made Attorney-General Judith Collins a King’s Counsel.
Christopher Luxon said it was an appropriate appointment, as Collins is now the Crown’s senior law officer.
He said it also reflected her career achievements and the responsibility she now holds.
Before entering Parliament in 2002, Collins worked as a lawyer at a number of private firms, establishing her own firm in 1990.
She also served as chair of the Casino Control Authority (1999-2002), president of the Auckland District Law Society (1998-99) and as vice-president of the New Zealand Law Society (1999-2000).
She was the sixth attorney-general to be made a Queen or King’s Counsel, the most recent being Christopher Finlayson in 2012.
Luxon said the appointment was made with the chief justice’s concurrence.
An excellent appointment – both on merit, and also for how upset some people on Twitter are.
Stuff reports:
European police have foiled a major Hamas plot to attack Jewish sites across the continent, with seven suspected members of the terror group arrested in raids in Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands.
The Hamas operatives were told to bring a cache of weapons, buried at an undisclosed location in Europe, to Berlin to attack Jewish institutions, German prosecutors said.
Maybe people will realise that what motivates Hamas is not a territorial dispute. They just like to kill Jews.
And have a look at what Palestinian are taught. Watch the video to find out who is responsible!
Stuff reports:
A judicial review has found demolition of a network of huts in Te Urewera was unlawful.
Twenty-nine huts were burned down in 2022 at the direction of Tūhoe’s post settlement entity Te Uru Taumatua following a decision by Te Urewera Board to decommission Department of Conservation (DOC) infrastructure within Te Urewera.
The move was supported by the director-general of DOC.
Wharenui Tuna of Tūhoe (Te Whakatane hapū) obtained an interim injunction to prevent the destruction of further huts in November 2022.
A further 10 huts were burned down following the interim injunction. Te Uru Taumatua denied responsibility and police were investigating.
Now, the High Court has found the DOC director-general, Te Uru Taumatua and Te Urewera Board acted contrary to Te Urewera Act in allowing the huts to be demolished.
So what consequences will the Trust Board and DOC face for their illegal destruction of 29 or 39 huts?
The court also found Te Uru Taumatua acted unlawfully by demolishing the huts without having in place an annual operational plan, and that Te Uru Taumatua and the director-general acted unlawfully by failing to prepare an annual operational plan for the past two years, as required by law.
The decision also said the board and DOC acted unlawfully “by purporting to adopt a retrospective annual operational plan authorising the huts’ demolition”.
The court described this as “a striking example of reviewable error” on behalf of the director-general.
So DOC tried to retrospectively cover up what happened. Shocking.