Another fact checker fail

Sky News reports:

Entrepreneur Dick Smith has doubled down on his attack on the ABC, as he revealed his intentions to sue the national broadcaster over a flawed fact-check on nuclear power.

Mr Smith urged Australia “go nuclear now” in an interview with Sydney’s 2GB radio last week, claiming a country could not run “entirely on renewables”, however his statement was put under the microscope by RMIT ABC Fact Check.

The disgraced fact-checking unit claimed Mr Smith’s statement was incorrect, citing Nepal as a country where 100 per cent renewable output was possible – a glaring error as Nepal is highly reliant on the debilitating burning of bio-fuel.

The error is the latest in a string of high-profile gaffes from RMIT fact checkers with Mr Smith revealing on Sky News Australia he is set to seek legal action against the public broadcaster for “damaging my name”.

The businessman said he was set to do something he had never done before, after the ABC allegedly refused to correct its fact check. 

The so called fact checker conflated electricity with energy. This makes a huge difference. Yes 98% of electricity is from hydro but many places don’t even have electricity. If you take all energy into account, then hydro only accounts for 5% of Nepal’s energy, with biofuels making up 67%, oil 19% and coal 8%.

Segregation on campus?

This is a very interesting development. First how do they determine eligibility? Is it based on DNA or skin colour?

What is someone is a Fijian Indian. Are they allowed in as they are Fijian or are they banned as they are Indian?

Who are Maori and Pasifika lumped in together? Why are African students not allowed in, if it is about skin colour? Why do they assume all Pasifika would want to be lumped in together, rather than have separate study areas for say Tongan students and Samoan students?

Note that this is different to students voluntarily forming clubs based on mutual interest, or gender, ethnicity and religion and being given a room for their use. This is about the university mandating certain study areas are reserved on the basis of ethnicity

Incidentally the 2022 participation rates for tertiary education was 10.4% for Europeans, 15.7% for Māori, 15.5% for Pasifika and 11.5% for Asians.

I wonder if the next logical step from having segregated study rooms is segregated tutorials and lectures?

General Debate 03 April 2024

Hipkins admits Labour’s 2017 manifesto was a lie

The Herald reports:

Labour leader Chris Hipkins admits his party’s Auckland light rail and KiwiBuild policies were “undeliverable” when proposed ahead of the 2017 election.

These were their two most well known promises. They achieved 2% of one and 0% of the other. And Hipkins is admitting that basically they knew they were undeliverable.

“Auckland light rail and KiwiBuild were massive commitments, and the reality is they were too ambitious to do from Opposition. We shouldn’t have gone into the campaign promising those two things.”

But you did. And why should we think your 2026 promises will be any different?

The operating model should precede the decision

The Herald reports:

The chief executive of the sprawling, partially amalgamated polytechnic and training institute Te Pūkenga (the New Zealand Institute of Skills and Technology) left the organisation in January with a golden handshake.

After all, the experiment in centralising vocational education and training has not been cheap for taxpayers. There was a $121 million appropriation in Budget 2020 to establish the entity; another $40m appropriation for investment in buildings in Budget 2022, and in last year’s Budget there was a concessionary Crown loan of $220m (bearing no interest), to pay to integrate IT systems.

Not all of that money has been spent, but at least part of any that’s left over is likely to be used to fund the coming disaggregation into constituent parts.

And, of course, the Crown otherwise pays the bulk of the entity’s revenue through such measures as enrolment-based transfers under the “unified funding system”.

It’s worth noting that Winder has been paid a considerable $640,000 a year to lead the organisation for the last 18 months through some pretty lacklustre performance.

Indeed, by many measures, the centralising experiment has been an abject failure. In the bloodless parlance of a 2023 Treasury report, “the benefits from the establishment of Te Pūkenga have yet to be fully realised”.

The Auditor-General was more bald, when, this time last year, he said he was concerned over the lack of progress Te Pūkenga had made on a financial strategy and on finalising its operating model.

On January 1, 2023, the agency failed to meet “minimum viable product” benchmarks, and it still hadn’t met this bare minimum standard in June, when the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet’s “Implementation Unit” provided a stocktake to then Minister of Finance, Grant Robertson.

The fault doesn’t so much lie with the four Chief Executives, as with the former Minister Chris Hipkins. A key aspect I have bolded is there was no operating model.

What does that mean you might wonder? Well at its most basic it is working out what functions would be done centrally, and what would be done locally by existing polytechnics. This is something that should have been investigated and decided prior to any decision on merging them. It would have identified whether or not the merger would save or cost money, and be practical.

Instead what happened is the Minister ignored the advice of officials, and insisted on a full merger, despite the lack of an operating model for it. It was basically let’s just do it, and hope it works.

A backfiring campaign

Stuff reports:

The Dutch city had just launched a campaign targeting what it perceived as ‘party tourists’, including those who may attend stag and hen parties. But it seems the publicity has had the opposite effect, and interest in his business, The Stag Company, has suddenly soared. …

The questions on Amsterdam Rules range from “Would you like to explore the city with a drink or a spliff/joint in your hand?”, “what famous Dutch products would you like to try? Cocaine?” to “would you like a guided tour among sex workers windows?”

Another asks if visitors are in town for a stag do and anyone answering in the affirmative is told bluntly: “That’s going to be a hassle, it is forbidden to organise stag parties in Amsterdam.”

LOL. Banned stag dos

Those who “fail” the quiz are told: “Too bad … Considering your preferences, Amsterdam may not offer the experience you’re looking for.”

But the Municipality of Amsterdam has been called out for “spreading misinformation” as stag and hen groups are not actually banned, although certain large events like pub crawls are forbidden in parts of the city.

Matt Mavir, managing director at Last Night of Freedom, called the campaign “heavy handed” and “embarrassing”.

“To make a claim that stag parties are ‘forbidden’ in Amsterdam is factually wrong, and doesn’t stand up to any real scrutiny – how would any such ban, if it existed, ever be enforced?

“It’s spreading misinformation as part of an ongoing, sensationalist campaign to make groups of UK tourists feel unwelcome in the city.”

And achieving the opposite!

This is why we need spending cuts

The complex and bloated Executive

The NZ Initiative has published a research note comparing our Executive Government to others.

They note:

  • We have 44% more Ministers, 282% more portfolios and 156% more departments than countries of similar size
  • NZ has 41 departments
  • NZ has 27 crown agencies
  • NZ has 74 ministerial portfolios and 22 associate portfolios

NZ stands out like a sore thumb.

Back in 2011 I blogged a solution to this:

My future state sector would be:

  1. Ministry of Internal Security – Crown law, Corrections, SIS, Justice, SFO, Police
  2. Ministry for environment – Environment, epa, Conservation, Biosecurity
  3. Dept of Administrative Affairs – dia, LINZ, Building & Housing, Customs, Stats
  4. Ministry for Economic Development – Labour, MAF, MED, Fisheries, MORST, Transport
  5. DPMC – DPMC, SSC
  6. Education – Education, ERO, TEC
  7. Ministry of External Relations & Security – GCSB, Defence, MFAT,  NZDF
  8. Treasury – Treasury
  9. Incomes – IRD, WINZ
  10. Culture – Culture & Heritage, Nat Lib, Archives, NZ on Air
  11. Health – Health
  12. Social Policy – Pacific Island Affairs, MSD, cyf, Youth Development, Community Sector, Senior Citizens, Families, Women’s Affairs, TPK
  13. Parliament – Parl Serv, Min Serv, Office of Clerk, PCO

This means you could have a cabinet of 12. The Speaker looks after Parliament, and one minister per major agency. One could have associate ministers outside cabinet who get delegated some of the specialist areas within an overall portfolio.

To match the Cabinet of 12, I would have 12 sector wide CEOs. They would be responsible for the entire sector and sit over individual agency CEOs. So you have clear accountability in each sector with one Cabinet Minister in charge and one CEO.

General Debate 02 April 2024

Grant wanted more debt!

Oliver Hartwich writes:

In his exit interview on TVNZ’s Q+A programme, former Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s suggested that New Zealand can and should sustain higher government debt levels than the current 30% of GDP target.

As Grant Robertson exits politics, it is galling to be lectured by him about an alleged need for even more debt. His legacy of profligate spending and the increased public debt he leaves behind is something New Zealand must now address.

The country needs to cut government spending and reduce debt to lower levels as a buffer against future shocks … and maybe also to protect against future governments opening the spending taps as widely as Robertson did.

New Zealand’s fiscal future depends on making prudent decisions today. To navigate our fiscal holes responsibly, the new Government should not be digging deeper, but chart a course towards long-term sustainability and resilience by reducing both expenditure and debt.

MPs sometimes forget that debt attracts interest and the more money we spend on interest payments on debt, the less we have for health and education.

In 2017 the finance cost on our debt was under $4 billion. Today it is over $8 billion. That is $4 billion less money we have for cancer drugs, schools etc.

Remind me who made her PM again?

The Herald reports:

Former Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern hit out at the cynical use of the politics of fear in a speech overnight and made what appeared to be a veiled reference to NZ First leader Winston Peters and remarks he made in the 1990s.

Peters later served as Ardern’s Deputy Prime Minister, after he picked governing with Labour following coalition talks in 2017. 

So some years after he made her PM, she suddenly decides it is time to speak out against what he said 25 years ago!!

MPs expense information leaked

Anthony Willy on the SOE case and partnership fiction

Former Judge and barrister Anthony Willy has an excellent post on the famous SOE case which is held up to have decided that the Treaty of Waitangi was a partnership. He demolishes this argument by quoting, well the actual judgment. The case was about acting in good faith. Well worth a read.

General Debate 01 April 2024

Its wrong when they do it, but not me

Stuff reports:

Businessman and philanthropist Phillip Mills wants to go on the record, despite facing backlash for his political views.

He was labelled “hypocrite of the week” by the Taxpayers’ Union last Maybecause he was one of 100 wealthy New Zealanders who told the Government they want to pay more tax.

Mills, of fitness empire Les Mills, hadn’t paid back the Covid-19 wage subsidy which supported the 12 gyms dotted between Auckland and Dunedin. Mills said the gyms – shut down during lockdowns – had yet to make a profit. Its international branch, its fitness brand selling clothing and fitness classes, has paid back the subsidy.

But when asked if he will answer questions about the opaque world of political donations, he wanted to speak out. He sees the comments from the Taxpayers’ Union as an attempt at stopping him speaking in support of progressive values.

Calling out hypocrisy is a risk, if you are a hypocrite. The TU paid back its subsidy but Less Mills has not paid back its $4.5 million. Their UK subsidiary had a 2 million pound profit in 2022 and their global revenue is estimated to be US$950 million. And the part-owner wails he wants to pay more tax (which he could voluntarily) while refusing to pay back the wage subsidy. What he really means is he wants others to pay more tax.

Some voters could see big money as having a pernicious influence on politics, but Mills said his donations are not transactional – he is simply backing a world view he believes in (richlisters backing the political right made the same argument in the first part of this series, which you can read here).

“It is about our belief around economic justice,” he said. “I think that people who are donating purely selfishly are misguided, we all suffer if we don’t deal with climate change, we all suffer with terrible inequality.”

But he finds it hard to believe some of the richlisters backing National and ACT aren’t motivated by their own gain.

Don’t you love it. When I donate to my preferred party it is because I am not selfish and care. but when other people donate they are motivated by self gain.

Some UNRWA data

I hope NZ doesn’t resume funding UNRWA. Here’s some numbers (from Israel but not rebutted) on them:

  • At least 15 UNRWA employees participated in the October 7 massacre and some of them were involved in abducting Israelis to the Gaza Strip.
  • 2135 UNRWA employees in Gaza are active in terrorist organizations (this is 17% of all UNRWA employees in Gaza with 485 operatives in the military wing of terrorist organizations
  • 1650 members of the terrorist organization Hamas) and at least 18 principals of UNRWA schools are military operatives in terrorist organizations.
  • No less than 32 UNRWA facilities in the Gaza Strip include permanent terrorist infrastructure within them or at a distance of up to 20 meters from them (tunnels, shafts, headquarters, munitions depots, launch sites and observation posts).

We should fund other UN agencies like the World Food Programme and good NGOs providing relief. But it is clear that funding UNRWA is akin to indirectly funding Hamas.

Net taxpayers in NZ

So 60% of taxpayers receive more in income support and benefits that they pay in tax. That leaves 40% funding those 60% and the vast majority coming from the top 10%.

It is a useful reminder we have a tax and welfare system which is already highly redistributive.

General Debate 31 March 2024

Hehir on Kainga Ora

Liam Hehir writes:

Ronald Reagan said that the nine most terrifying words in the English language are “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

Fast forward to present-day New Zealand and we have a new champion in the scary nine word category: “We’re Kāinga Ora and we are your new neighbours.”

Sadly this is true. It is probably fair to say that some people have always been unenthusiastic about having state houses as neighbours, but most accepted that it is important to have social housing for those in need. But that goodwill has been destroyed by the free reign given abusive tenants over the last six years.

The National-led government now wants to strike a different balance. Quite naturally, political and media opponents are horrified by the idea. The idea that somebody would lose their state subsidised house just because they menace their neighbours with a axe, however, does not seem so unreasonable to most people.

I’ve not even bothered to poll on this, because it is obvious 85%+ would agree.

Consequences for badly behaved Kāinga Ora tenants inevitably involves the harsh reality that some of these individuals will become homeless. They may be driven to seek temporary shelter with family or friends, a solution that’s not only temporary but can also strain personal relationships and resources. In the worst case scenario, they may end up living in a garage or a car. 

But this outcome was not caused by the government. Provided that there is a fair process involved, the outcome was the result of their abusive behaviour. It sometimes feels as if the left think of social housing tenants as livestock rather than people, as if they were not in control of their ability to threaten to kill their neighbour’s dog and burn down her house.

Exactly., You can simply decide not to abuse your neighbours.

Children, of course, are often the innocent victims in this scenario. Nobody chooses their parents. The loss of a home underlines the impact of adult decisions on the youngest and most defenceless members of society. 

It does not follow that we must enable abusive tenants, however, as if their children are a human shield that gives them immunity from minimal standards of acceptable behaviour. If an ordinary renter or homeowner breaks the covenants of their tenancy or mortgage then the fact that they have children does not entitle them to continue living in their home forever.

In the case of Kāinga Ora tenants, the parents have the benefit of having the government as a landlord and below market rents. Parents who are willing to jeopardise that by using the place for gang meetings, in full knowledge of the consequences, are unfit parents.

We need to accept that turning this situation around may require significant bolstering of the already unfunded foster care system. If our first concern is to secure children’s material needs, those are not likely to be provided by such irresponsible people. Greater levels of intervention than the provision of a home is required.

Sadly also true. If you’re a kid in a household where the adults threaten to kill the neighbours, then the biggest issue isn’t your house – it is your parents.

In the meantime, the Green Party’s ongoing support for abusive tenants points to a warped sense of morality. Tamatha Paul says the government’s policies amount to a “coalition of cruelty punishing people for being poor” which is a misrepresentation that obscures the real issues that social housing providers and neighbours must grapple with. 

Being provided with a house at a subsidised rent, with the expectation of basic civil behaviour, is not a punishment for being poor. It is a form of generous support for the poor by the community. 

If you are evicted after attacking the maintenance man with a blunt weapon, you have not been punished for being poor. You have been punished for shocking violence against someone trying to maintain the house you have been provided with.

The Greens values are so warped on this.

Ipsos Issues Monitor Feb 24

Ipsos has published their excellent Issues Monitor for February 2024. Below I look at key findings, and compare them to 12 months ago.

Top Issues (can choose three)

  1. Inflation 59% (-6%)
  2. Housing 33% (nc)
  3. Health 33% (+6%)
  4. Crime 27% (-6%)
  5. Economy 25% (+3%)
  6. Climate change 18% (-9%)
  7. Poverty 18% (nc)
  8. Fuel prices 13% (-3%)
  9. Transport 10% (+2%)
  10. Education 9% (+2%)

Govt performance is at 4.6/10 – just below the 4.7 the last Govt had. The Govt will want to see that improve quickly.

The party deemed best (and margin to next party) on each of the top 10 issues is:

  1. Inflation National +16% (+13%)
  2. Housing National +9% (+10%)
  3. Health National +5% (+16%)
  4. Crime National +22% (+17%)
  5. Economy National +25% (+16%)
  6. Climate change Greens
  7. Poverty Labour
  8. Fuel prices National
  9. Transport National
  10. Education National

This is very good for National. They lead Labour on all the top five issues and eight of the top ten issues. And they lead Labour by far greater margins than a year ago.

Dolphins vs SailGP

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon believes the cancellation of SailGP racing in Lyttleton following dolphin sightings speaks to New Zealand’s “obstruction economy” and its level of “red tape”.

However, he acknowledged SailGP organisers agreed to protocols concerning environmental protection and said a balance needed to be struck between running “world-class events” and protecting the environment.

Addressing the event being unable to go ahead on Saturday, DoC deputy director of general operations Henry Weston noted that in New Zealand, the Marine Mammals Protection Act and Marine Mammals Protection Regulations direct how vessels must behave around marine mammals and says it is illegal to harass or disturb them.

“All vessels and people involved in the SailGP event, including any support boats or spectators, must abide by this legislation. It is a legal requirement. People controlling vessels who encounter a dolphin or other marine mammal must travel no faster than idle/no wake speed if within 300 metres of a dolphin, and not herd, harass or obstruct marine mammals or cut through groups,” Weston said.

This wasn’t about boats trying to hit dolphins or even being within a few metres of them. The rules mean you can’t race if one dolphin is within 300 metres!

Sure SailGP agreed to the rules, but it would be nice to weigh up benefits vs risks.

There is a tiny risk that one out of 15,000 dolphins may feel slightly distressed as yachts race a few hundred metres away, and it may feel pressured to swim somewhere else.

Weigh that up against the thousands of people who had paid tickets to watch the race, and the preparation of all the teams.

General Debate 30 March 2024

Empathy for those affected

It is important to differentiate the need to trim back the massive increase in the public service, with the impact it has on individuals and their families.

The next few months will be a very challenging time for many public servants. They face possibly losing their own job, but also there being very few new jobs to apply for in the next few months. This means that they have to worry about paying the mortgage, kids expenses etc. No-one should lose sight of this.

It is not the fault of individual public servants that government spending is $18 billion a year higher than Labour promised it would cap it at. The vast majority are hard working and dedicated to their jobs. The fault is the previous Ministers who managed to simultaneously oversee a huge increase in spending and in public service numbers, and also a decline in most actual public services.

So while the cuts are necessary, they should not be seen as something to celebrate. At the end of the day any family losing a source of income is a matter of great distress to them, whether they be mine workers or public servants.

Hopefully the recession will end soon, and new job opportunities will be created.

Gang members but not gang related!

Stuff reports:

Police are maintaining that the incident was not gang-related. However, Stuff understands that both Mongrel Mob and Black Power members were involved in the brawl.

A resident on Lytton Road told RNZ she saw people wearing Black Power patches, while a Black Power gang member told Stuff “it may be gang members, but it’s not a gang context”.

A fine distinction. If it wasn’t gang members involved, it is far far less likely a 21st would have ended up with two people dead. Most people don’t take knives to parties.

An excellent political ad

This is a seriously good political ad, despite being nine minutes long. He brings back memories of the US at its best, makes a compelling case against the status quo, and uses his father and uncle to link back to those better times.

Now RFK is a very flawed candidate. I’d even call him crazy adjacent. But if he does more ads like that, he is going to get a fair few votes. The big question will be who he takes more of them off – Biden or Trump.