James Doolan of the Hotel Council writes in the Herald:

Let’s start with a quick recap of what tourism looked like before Covid border closures in March 2020. In normal times, Aotearoa hosted around 3.8 million international visitors each year including leisure tourists, business travellers and foreign students. Kiwis also travel domestically for work and leisure.

Spending by people who “don’t live around here” is critical to many businesses, and it’s easy to guess what some of those are. Unsurprisingly, tourists account for 99 per cent of air passenger transport spending and 95 per cent of overnight accommodation spending.

Huge.

But the next one will be a surprise to most. Pre-Covid, 42 per cent of total spending in Kiwi restaurants and bars came from tourists. That’s more than $4.9 billion in revenue each year. International tourists alone were responsible for a gigantic one-quarter of total spending at our F&B outlets.

No wonder so many have closed.

Tourists eat out three times a day, seven days a week, not just on birthdays or when they’ve been able to organise a babysitter. Tourists are often on the trip-of-a-lifetime and far from home. Leisure tourists don’t have work tomorrow morning, or kids to get to school. If this is the only time they’ll be here, then of course tourists are more likely to splash out on the best, take the whole bottle and find space for dessert. In short, tourists are both wealthy and primed by circumstances to spend heavily on the experience of travel. 

Heh my eating out spending declined by around 95% after we had children.

Those 3.8 million international visitors are here for 10 nights on average, meaning 38 million visitor nights each year. By comparison, New Zealand’s resident population of 5 million multiplied by 365 days per year equates to 1.8 billion nights annually, ignoring the minor impact of outbound travel. When analysed this way, international tourists are just two per cent of the market, but they’re doing 25 per cent of the spending.

So spending 12 times as much.

Tourist spending on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday keeps the restaurant in business for your date night dinner on Friday. Tourists prop up the new, innovative and international-standard restaurants that we Kiwis think about only on special occasions. Without tourists, our F&B sector is smaller, less vibrant and duller than it should be. We’ve witnessed that for ourselves since international borders closed.

So next time you’re out at a restaurant, drink to the health of our tourism industry. Whether you like it or not, tourists subsidised your date night.

A good point.

Stuff reports:

A father and son who beat and cut the finger off a teenage burglar have been found not guilty on all charges.

William Burr was found not guilty on six charges, and Shaun Burr was found not guilty on four charges in the Hamilton District Court on Wednesday.

The men were discharged without conviction, after being accused of beating and cutting the finger off the teenage burglar who’d stolen from William Burr three times before.

In terms of the law, I thought they were clearly guilty. I could see a defence to beating the burglar, but hard to see a defence to cutting his finger (tip) off. I would have voted to convict (based on the evidence in the media, which to be far may not be comprehensive).

But clearly the jury just decided the burglar was a ratbag and that Burr’s rough justice was not something they would punish him for.

I wonder if part of the reason the jury let Burr off, is because they perceive the justice system as not working for victims. The burglar had already struck three times before, and was already on on bail despite clear recidivism.

There is a lesson here. You’ll get more and more juries unwilling to convict people for rough justice, if they think the actual justice system isn’t working.

Readers will recall I have blogged previously on Judge Callinicos who got pressured by the Heads of the District and Family Courts due to complaints from Oranga Tamariki that he bullied their staff in court.

Newsroom has reported on the Ombudsman’s review of a reverse uplift case (like the one Judge Callinicos was dealing with, and the findings are damning for OT. Some extracts:

Newsroom has been given a copy of Boshier’s final opinion by the Pākehā foster carers on their complaint.

He calls out Oranga Tamariki for a laundry list of questionable behaviours, including submitting misleading and unbalanced information to the court, flawed decision-making around moving the children, and contravening the Oranga Tamariki Act.

And more:

Perhaps most damaging to the state agency’s reputation is that it must ensure all documents submitted to court are accurate, and are reviewed “at an appropriate level” before filing.

And:

“What the Ombudsman uncovered in this case is serious. I mean, it’s bad. It’s malpractice. It’s abuse of power. He has found they didn’t act consistent with the legislation at that time.”

She says one of the most concerning aspects was misleading information making its way into court, meaning a judge did not have all the facts needed before making the decision to approve the uplift of the children.

“What this report clearly identifies is that the decision was based on misleading and incomplete information. It wasn’t a balanced account. So essentially social workers were influencing the outcome by being selective. Now that’s not how the judicial process is supposed to work. The judicial process is supposed to work by all the parties, to a dispute, having the opportunity to present their evidence to the judge and the judge who is the expert in the law, makes what he considers or she considers to be the best decision possible in the circumstances.

So Judge Callicinos rightly criticised OT staff for acting in ways like that described above – and for his trouble he had two heads of benches (later joined by the Chief Justice) tell him he had to be nicer to OT.

There should be apologies flowing to Judge Callicinos from those responsible.

A raft of Government reforms along with local body elections have increased the Taxpayers’ Union’s workload – so we’re looking for new team members in our Wellington office.

We’re seeking part-time paid interns for positions in administration and research. These positions would suit Victoria University students with all-round skills and a keen interest in politics and campaigns.

Scepticism of big government is a plus, but we hire from across the political spectrum.

Your classmates and lecturers might not share the Taxpayers’ Union’s mission of lower taxes, less waste, more transparency – so a sense of humour and a thick skin is a must!

Hours are negotiable, and while we are not an accredited Living Wage Employer™ (we prefer not to pay accreditation fees to left-wing lobby groups), we do pay a living wage.

Previous Taxpayers’ Union interns have gone on to work in government departments including Treasury, DPMC, and DOC – as well as in the Leader of the Opposition’s office and in private financial consultancies.

You can send a resume and brief cover note to [email protected].

Eric Crampton writes:

Governments like scapegoats. A good scapegoat can take the blame for something that is a government’s fault. It can also help justify measures the government was itching to take for other reasons.

When all goes well, a very good scapegoat can do both.

On Wednesday, Minister of Commerce and Consumer Affairs David Clark blamed the supermarkets for inflation.

Yep, it wasn’t printing too much money. It was New World and Countdown to blame!

Greed is a poor explanation for inflation, not because companies are altruists, but because greed is always with us. It isn’t cyclical.

Should we credit corporate public-spiritedness for the five years from December 2011 through December 2016 when inflation ran well below the midpoint of the RBNZ inflation band?

Of course not. Monetary policy drives inflation, not changes in greed.

It is depressing that a Minister thinks we are so stupid, they run such lines.

Even worse, Clark implicitly compared March quarter food price figures with December quarter CPI figures. March quarter inflation figures will not be released until later this week. It is currently impossible to say whether food price inflation is above or below the overall CPI.

We now have this data and food price inflation of 6.7% is lower than overall inflation of 6.9%. And food only makes up 18.5% of the overall CPI – 71.5% is other consumer costs such as housing and transport.

In short, the minister was wrong from beginning to end. Absolute economic ignorance would be the most charitable explanation, but even then he might have considered asking Treasury’s advice.

More plausibly, Clark was scapegoating the supermarkets to justify populist measures against them, or to deflect attention from his government’s failure to keep the Reserve Bank on target, or both.

Voters should be wary of policies justified by scapegoating.

Hey look at that, over there, don’t blame us.

Quite amazing if you look at the majority of the leaders of the US Government. You have:

• President Joe Biden, 79
• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 82
• Senate President pro tempore Patrick Leahy, 82
• House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, 82
• House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, 81
• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, 71
• Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, 77
• Senate Majority Assistant Leader Patty Murray, 71

One bad dose of the flu could knock out three of the top four in the line of succession!

The Herald reports:

Transport Minister Michael Wood has conveyed his expectations over the importance of “responsible and proportionate spending,” after his Ministry spent $10,000 on two large red prop ‘zeros’.

Waka Kotahi spent $4885 per number earlier this year, Newstalk ZB can reveal.

The props – which glow red and stand about shoulder height on Wood – were part of the agency’s Road to Zero campaign.

I thought the two zeros are the Ministers pictured!

This symbolises what the Government is about. Waka Kotahi’s job is no longer to allow New Zealanders to travel using the medium that best works for them – but to slow roads down rather than make them safer.

If anything is a good indication of fading support for Labour, it is the 2021 donation returns. Labour got half as much money as the Greens! They got less money than NZ First and Social Credit combined. Total donations (excluding non-anonymous under $1,500) were:

1. National $1,025,311
2. ACT $830,442
3. Greens $403,787
4. Labour $207,836
5. NZ First $107,289
6. Social Credit $106,496

Labour’s paltry donations are not just a lack of large donors (over $15,000). Here’s who much each party got from smaller donors ($1,500 to $5,000):

1. National $336,585
2. ACT $121,600
3. Greens $79,250
4. Labour $56,563
5. NZ First $47,305

Labour had only 18 of these smaller donors compared to 120 for National.

One News reports:

But Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told Morning Report she was weary of political rhetoric on crime masking the situation, and both Labour and National were firm on crime.

“The facts are that the penalties for these issues have not decreased, so this idea that there’s been a problem with the deterrent factor is just wrong.”

The idea tougher penalties would deter young people from carrying out ram raids was not realistic, she said.

“That … says that there’s a rational calculation from young people who, we know are probably making these decisions without that rational judgement. Most young people who are engaging in crime don’t think they’re going to get caught.

Actually many criminals are quite rational. They now know that the Police will no longer pursue your vehicle, if you drive fast enough – even if you have just robbed a store. So they have worked out the safest way to rob a store is to ram raid it, and take off quickly – confident in the knowledge that the Police won’t follow them for long.

The Prime Minister has rejected claims Labour is not tough enough on crime, saying the penalties are the same under both major parties

This is not true. It is the policy of Labour that repeat serious and violent offenders should be able to get early release through parole after one third of their sentence. It is the policy of National that someone on their second violent offence not be allowed out after one third of their sentence.

Further it is the policy of National (and current law) that a third time assailant who seriously wounds someone be sent to prison for 14 years with no parole while the policy of Labour is to change the law so they may get out after just two or three years.

Eric Crampton looks at what has happened due to tax brackets not being adjusted in line with wage growth:

If the Government has done this, then the 33% tax rate would be kicking in $101,000 not $70,000. The 30% tax rate would kick in at $69,000 not $48,000.

Eric points out that effectively in 2011 Parliament decided that those earning between the 68th and 85th percentiles should be on the 30% tax rate and now that tax rate covered earners from the 50th through 73rd percentiles.

Yet Labour not only won’t index tax brackets to inflation or wage growth, but they are planning an up to $1,800 tax increase next year for employees and employers.

The Herald reports:

Taxpayers have forked out more than $800,000 for Zoom job expos run by the Ministry of Social Development.

Newstalk ZB can reveal the events failed to fire, with just 126 people taking part since the first pilot two years ago.

That works out to $6626 per attendee.

Just example No 128,765 of wasteful spending.

The second event in March 2021 was a “tactical response” to the Auckland lockdown, featuring five seminars with 11 attendees.

If it wasn’t for the fact it is my money they are wasting, it would be comical. They ran five seminars in Auckland and got a total of 11 people to them! If this was a company spending its own money they would have halted them by now, but hey its just taxpayer money.

Geoffrey Miller writes:

Jacinda Ardern is slowly but surely shifting New Zealand’s foreign policy towards the West.

That was the underlying theme of a keynote address by New Zealand’s prime minister this week.

Ardern mentioned China only once by name when she spoke to the US business summit in Auckland on Monday, but Beijing was clearly on her mind throughout the 3000-word address.

Some of the hardest-hitting passages came early in the speech and appeared deliberately indirect and oblique, leaving it up to listeners to make up their own minds on the intended likely target of the PM’s words.

For example, Ardern said New Zealand had “held firmly to our independent foreign policy but also to our values. When we see a threat to the rules-based order we rely on, we act.”

While most people would immediately think of New Zealand’s recent moves against Russia – which Ardern discussed in subsequent parts of the speech – the lack of specificity of these initial remarks also allowed for more liberal interpretations involving China.

I hope this is correct. It is clear that we have been disastrously wrong that trading with Russia and China would make them more benign.

Of course, all of Ardern’s indirectness and obliqueness was not without good reason and she would be fully aware of the sensitivities. With a third of New Zealand’s exports heading to China every year, Wellington can ill afford to get offside with Beijing.

Indeed, until last year, Wellington thought that it had found a way to thread the needle and balance the competing interests of China and the US. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has forced New Zealand to align itself more closely with the West.

This new position understandably carries a degree of unfamiliarity and awkwardness for New Zealand policymakers, who had been quite happy with the status quo.

The status quo is now untenable. New Zealand needs to reduce it dependency on China quickly. By that I don’t mean tariffs or the like, but reducing barriers with the US, EU, Canada etc.

Stuff reports:

National Party Leader Christopher Luxon says he’s committed to having a more diverse range of candidates for the 2023 general election.

His concession came as Sam Uffindell launched his campaign for the Tauranga by-election to replace outgoing National MP Simon Bridges.

At Uffindell’s official campaign launch at Mount Maunganui College on Saturday, Luxon said while the party wasn’t where he wanted it to be in terms of diversity, progress was being made.

“I am confident the National Party will have a very diverse candidacy for 2023,” Luxon said.

This may prove to be quite challenging. The reason why, is that National may win a lot of electorate seats.

The National Party hierarchy does care about having diversity in caucus, but this is generally done through the list ranking. The ranking is done by senior officials and the caucus leadership has very strong influence over that.

But individual selections in most electorates are done 100% by local members. And while diversity may be a factor for them, they only get to select one candidate. Many do not even decide until selection night who to vote for, after listening to their speeches.

National in 2020 got 33 MPs. Let’s say in 2023 they get 53 MPs. Now normally 20 additional MPs would give you a lot of ability to make sure there was a decent diversity. But it is unlikely there will be 20 additional List MPs (which are centrally chosen). How many electorate seats could National pick up?

Well while they won’t win all of them, the following seats could well come into play:

1. Northland
2. Whangarei
3. Maungakiekie
4. Tukituki
5. Upper Harbour
6. Northcote
7. New Plymouth
8. Hamilton East
9. Otaki
10. Ilam
11. Hutt South
12. Rangitata
13. Nelson
14. Napier
15. West Coast-Tasman
16. Hamilton West
17. East Coast
18. Wairarapa
19. Takanini
20. Whanganui

Now winning electorate seats is definitely a good thing overall for a party. But if National did win say 20 electorates back off Labour, then they might get no extra List MPs, and that would make list ranking more difficult.

Newshub reports:

The public has registered a vote of no confidence in Police Minister Poto Williams as youth crime spirals out of control. 

Most Kiwis think Williams is too soft on crime, the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has found – but Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is standing by her. 

From mowing through malls to attacks on dairies to storming liquor stores to ransacking retailers, it feels no one is immune to the ram-raid rampage. …

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll asked: Is the current Police Minister too soft on crime?

More than two-thirds – 68.3 percent – said yes, while just 18.3 percent said no. 

That’s a damning result, but a fair one.

Williams is probably the softest on crime Police Minister New Zealand has had since Phil Connolly.

Stuff reports:

A global vigilante climate group are targeting utes and sports utility vehicles (SUV) in Auckland, deflating tyres across the suburbs of Sandringham and Mt Eden.

A group called the Tyre Extinguishers have taken credit.

Its spokesperson, calling themselves ‘Mercedes Driver’, said similar action had taken place in the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands, and the United States.

“What began as an action by UK citizens concerned about climate change has spread around the world, showing no signs of stopping,” the statement said.

SUVs and 4x4s were a “disaster for our climate”, it said. “The world is facing a climate emergency. We need emergency action to reduce emissions immediately. We’re taking action into our own hands because our governments and politicians will not.”

I really hope they get caught in the act doing this.

From a political point of view their actions will not do anything to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It will result in a backlash that will make people more hostile to their aims.

Stuff reports:

Germany’s DPA news agency has reported that prosecutors in the town of Stendal in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, have reviewed footage of a Czech millionaire driving his Bugatti Chiron at more than 400 kilometres per hour on a stretch of autobahn between Berlin and Hanover, and have concluded that he did not break any laws.

Radim Passer attracted global attention in January when he posted a video on his YouTube channel that showed him hitting 414kph on the public road in an attempt to hit the Bugatti’s top speed, which is limited to 420kph. …

While the Chiron could easily go faster than 420kph, Bugatti says it limits it to that for safety reasons, after it concluded that no tyre currently made would actually be able to handle the stress at the Chiron’s true top speed.

A good focus on safety then!

At the time the video attracted the attention of Germany’s Transport Ministry, which released a statement saying it rejected “any behaviour in road traffic that leads or can lead to endangering road users.”

Passer hit back, posting a comment on the video directed to “those that say it was irresponsible and dangerous”, saying that he completed the run at 4:50am on a Sunday, and passed a total of ten cars on the 10km stretch of autobahn, one of which was one of his spotters in a Porsche 911 Turbo.

”Good visibility is about 3 to 4km straight ahead, so there is enough time to react,” he wrote.

“The Chiron can brake from 400 to 0 in 9 seconds within 490 metres. All cars are in the far right lane. There was an earlier drive through the section to make sure there is nothing on the road.

This is a good reminder of how what speed is safe is highly variable depending on the car, the road, the conditions etc. The authorities concluded that his speed was no unsafe, when you take this into account.

NewstalkZB reports:

NSW government ministers have been reportedly told to avoid using the word “mate” as part of new workplace behaviour advice. 

The Daily Telegraph revealed on Sunday ministers undertook Respect at Work training sessions during the week. 

Perrottet government ministers were advised not to use the word “mate”, ban drinking alcohol in the office and not to yell at staff. 

“I use ‘mate’ all the time – it’s as ­Australian as you can get. How can it be offensive?” one minister told The Daily Telegraph. 

Some people who attended described the training as “PC insanity” with other unnamed ministers also criticising the course.

No doubt coming here soon!

Stuff reports:

Israel has lashed out at Russia over “unforgivable” comments by its foreign minister about Nazism and anti-semitism – including claims that Adolf Hitler was Jewish. Israel, which summoned the Russian ambassador in response, said the remarks blamed Jews for their own murder in the Holocaust.

If you needed any proof of how vile Russia has become, this provides it.