Susan Edmonds writes:

When the Government released a video this week revealing it had put 12 families into newly built homes through its progressive homeownership scheme, it generated a few double-takes.

“Transformational stuff on top of the raging success of KiwiBuild,” one Twitter user commented.

National didn’t need to make any more attack ads, another said, the party could just reproduce the Labour-created advertisement and allow the Government to take a shot at itself.

That’s not a bad idea. National could pay to spread the Labour ad further!

But 12 families in seven months – one-and-a-half each a month (ish) – how can that really be a success?

In the month of January alone 4957 houses changed hands for almost 20 per cent more than the year before and it’s estimated that house prices will rise more than 50 per cent in the first two terms of the Labour Government.

An excellent contrast.

In 2014 our Trust took up the challenge to improve education outcomes for some South Auckland children through the establishment of South Auckland Middle School (SAMS) for Years 7 – 10.

This is our long term NCEA data for students who have spent at least 1 year in that  school before going into another school for years 11 – 13.

– 85% of these children achieved Level 1 NCEA. (Decile 1 & 2 school leavers average is 78% L1 or above). This result is 17% above the nearest high school.

– 76% of these children achieved Level 2 NCEA. (Decile 1 & 2 school leavers average is 64% L2 or above). This result is 25% above the nearest high school.

– 45% of these children achieved Level 3 NCEA. (Decile 1& 2 school leavers average is 34% L2 or above). This result is 20% above the nearest high school.

These numbers are going up quickly over time as there are now cohorts out there who have spent the full 4 years with us. I also expect them to actually be better when I re-check the data in April as some schools have extensions for loading 2020 credits. The NCEA results could all go up by 3 – 5 % and to trend up in the Covid year shows the exceptional effort and quality of work put in.

SAMS also had attendance at 90% (with only 4.5% coded “unjustified/truant”) – despite the Covid disruptions/uncertainty. SAMS and had only one suspension/expulsion in 2020.

The Middle School West Auckland academic data is still in process but is trending in a very similar direction. Children at both schools combine to be 90% Maori or Pasifika and decile 1.

We are currently considering proposing to Corrections and the Minister placing a version of our school model into prisons to try and provide a genuine academic/learning base that would then allow inmates to access the qualifications levels on offer. Our model is both transferable and can be scaled.

Why? Because of the data/information below.

Corrections data has:

– 70% of released Under 20s – re-imprisoned within 48 months.

– 67% of released 20 – 24 year olds re-imprisoned within 48 months.

– 62% of released 25 – 29 years olds re-imprisoned within 48 months.

https://www.corrections.govt.nz/resources/research/reconviction-patterns-of-released-prisoners-a-48-months-follow-up-analysis/re-imprisonment-rates-by-age-at-release

“Educational and employment opportunities are hampered by literacy levels lower than the general population. As many as 70% of those in prison have significant literacy problems. There is clear evidence that participation in prison literacy and education programmes (especially those with a vocational focus), is associated with higher post-release employment and lower recidivism (7% to 46% reduction in recidivism across different meta-studies depending on study and outcome measure).

It is now well understood that prisons act as recruitment centres for gangs (especially for young offenders) and underpin the illegal drug trade. Imprisonment leaves those incarcerated with high rates of undiagnosed and untreated alcohol/drug addictions and mental illness. They have a negative impact on the next generation, given that a high percentage of people in prison are parents. These issues disproportionately affect Māori.”

https://www.pmcsa.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/Using-evidence-to-build-a-better-justice-system.pdf

[My note: Parental educational outcomes and perceptions are currently a driving determinant of many school outcomes.]

From corrections:

“Research shows that participation in education and employment can significantly reduce the risk of re-offending following release from prison. Educational achievement is also important in enabling offenders to fully participate and benefit from other rehabilitative programmes.

Many prisoners lack the necessary literacy and numeracy skills and qualifications and work experience to gain and sustain employment after their release.

We estimate that approximately 57% of prisoners do not have NCEA Level One Literacy and Numeracy Competency, and that these learners are also likely to have few or no formal qualifications.”

https://www.corrections.govt.nz/working_with_offenders/prison_sentences/employment_and_support_programmes/education_and_training

[My note: The Literacy and Numeracy bar is NZ’s lowest qualifications bar:

Literacy requirement

Minimum of 10 credits through either:

• Specified assessment standards – specified assessment standards available through a range of subjects including English for Academic Purposes unit standards 22749, 22750 and 22751 (minimum total of 10 credits); OR
• Unit standards – package of three literacy unit standards (total of 10 credits
   – all three required).

Numeracy requirement

Minimum of 10 credits through either:

• Achievement standards – specified assessment standards available through a range of subjects – (minimum total of 10 credits);OR
• Unit standards – package of three numeracy unit standards (total of 10 credits – all three required).]

“Early alternative environments and prosocial links (e.g., through sports, education, cultural and youth groups etc.) are recommended for children and young people, especially before age 16 to 19, when gang membership can already be entrenched. There is limited evidence for the effectiveness of gang membership ‘prevention’ programmes per se,  in the absence of dealing with social risk factors.”

https://www.pmcsa.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/Using-evidence-to-build-a-better-justice-system.pdf

My questions:

– how pervasive and effective are the educational opportunities currently available to prisoners (I have read what corrections say they offer?)

– what are the best mechanisms/people to work with to create this opportunity?

– what else should I know & who should I talk to on this topic?

​Alwyn Poole ([email protected])

Villa Education Trust

In September 2017 there were just 4,000 families on the Priority A waiting list for public housing. Labour called this a disgrace. With three years and three months of kindness, the number of families is 20,339.

Shows you what a difference a kind caring Government can make

Just five days after the Government moved Auckland to Level 1, they have now slammed it back to Level 3 as of 6 am Sunday.

Auckland will be locked down for seven days, and the rest of New Zealand will be at Level 2.

My thoughts are with everyone in Auckland. It must be hell for families and businesses coping with such rapid changes.

Three of thr four Governors of the biggest states in the US are in trouble.

The largest state, California, has Governor Gavin Newsom (D) in trouble. His approval rating has dropped from 64% to 48% and he is facing a recall petition.

The organisers have until 17 March to get 1.5 million signatures. They so far have 1.825 million but need a margin as some will not be valid. If they get verified them the recall vote goes ahead and two questions are asked.

1. Should Newsrom be recalled/sacked
2. Who should replace him as Governor

Last recall over 130 candidates were on the ballot which means you can win with a low percentage. Newsom can’t be included in the names, if he loses the first part of the vote.

Texas is the second largest and the loss of life due to power outages during ice storms has hurt Governor Greg Abbott (R). His approval rating has dropped from 56% to 39%. He is facing re-election in 2022.

In New York (4th largest) Governor Andrew Cuomo has multiple scandals ranging from hiding the number of deaths in rest homes to allegations of sexual harassment from a former staffer. He is in his third term and up again in 2022. A recent poll had only 38% saying he should get a 4th term.

So three of the big four Governors all in real trouble, but for very different reasons.

Newshub reports:

Judith Collins is vowing to overturn the “undemocratic” law that scraps the ability for Māori wards to be overturned by a local poll, if National wins the election in 2023. 

The law change was passed in Parliament on Wednesday night under urgency. It was contentious because Labour only gave the public two days to make submissions. 

“The way we elect our councils is a fundamental part of our democracy. This legislation takes away the ability of New Zealanders to have a voice in this decision making,” Collins said after the law passed. 

Excellent to see this pledge. It is outrageous Labour voted to abolish the right of local residents to decide on their electoral system because people had voted the wrong way to what Labpur wanted.

I previously blogged on how the Climate Commission had not released the full model and data for their economic modelling which drove their interim recommendations.

Industry groups, businesses and NGOs need this data so they can both check the Commission’s modelling, but also so they can submit alternative proposals. Without it, the consultation process if fatally wounded.

Yesterday the Climate Commission’s Chair and CEO fronted the Environment Committee, and what they said does not appear to be correct.

The Chair said:

“But I think we have to distinguish what is already available, which is the inputs, the analysis, the sensitivity analysis, the outputs”

I’ve been informed by multiple people this is untrue. The Commission has no published a sensitivity analysis and only some inputs have been published.

The Chair also said:

“I think we do need to be clear, we have always released the assumptions, the body of evidence and the work available on our web site.”

Again I am informed this is not correct. Specifically they have not released the critical marginal abatement costs, and only some of their assumptions.

In response to a question on whether they have released the marginal abatement costs, the CEO said:

“Our models have inputs in terms of cost projections and assumptions around there. We have put the input assumptions on our web site. Marginal Abatement Costs are a particular way that people sometimes look at the costs of particular individual technologies. Our approach has been using these models, there’s cost data on the web and we’ve had a number of webinars.” and ““We have cost data on the web.”

Again they have only released some of their input assumptions, and they have not released either their marginal abatement costs or their cost paths.

The CEO then implies they have bene using cost paths instead of marginal abatement costs:

“We have cost paths for different technologies, they’re inputs into parts of our modelling.”

“Yeah, it’s a different thing from marginal abatement costs, they are static. We can send you material on marginal abatement costs and how you think about them in the broader modelling context. There’s stuff in our evidence report that goes into that.”

This appears to be an attempt to justify why they have not released their marginal abatement costs, by implying they used cost paths instead. However in their actual published report they do not mention cost paths once, but refer to marginal abatement costs almost a dozen times.

Now people may get sore heads focusing on the difference between marginal abatements costs and cost paths. I do. But that is not what is important. What is important is the Commission clearly does have data on marginal abatement costs, and is refusing to release it, and is misleading the Environment Committee about it. And the question has to be why?

The Commission is meant to be a neutral body of experts that will help deliver bipartisan policy recommendations over the next 30 years to deliver the best path to net zero emissions. They are at grave risk of shooting themselves in the foot at the first hurdle by their ongoing refusal to release all the data, and now to try mislead about it.

The gold standard for the Commissions would be to actually release online their economic model for others to use, and the source code for it. Then everyone could check it, and use it for their own proposals and submissions.

If that gold standard is not available (say because they have not used a full economic model, but are just using excel spreadsheets) then the minimum they should do is release the full data – the spreadsheets, the assumptions, the marginal abatement costs, and the inputs.

The Green Party should be pressuring the Commission on this. They have been champions of open data. James Shaw wants his legacy to be partisan consensus on the policy path forward. This will never happen, unless there is full data transparency. You can’t expect people to submit on what will be the biggest change to the NZ economy since Think Big without access to all the data.

Stuff reports:

A majority of Environment Canterbury councillors support increasing their rates by up to 24.5 per cent.

Only four of 14 councillors directly criticised the proposed change at a meeting on Thursday, while most others said the budget is transformational and shows the council is responding to the demands of the community.

How out of touch of struggling families. What sort of moron labels a 25% increase in rates as transformational?

How many families have have their incomes rise 25%?

So it is white supremacy to teach that there is a right answer in mathematics!!

The woke brigade just get crazier and crazier every week.

AP reports:

The COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. topped 500,000 Monday, a staggering number that all but matches the number of Americans killed in World War II, Korea and Vietnam combined.

President Joe Biden held a sunset moment of silence and a candle-lighting ceremony at the White House and ordered American flags lowered at federal buildings for the next five days.

“We have to resist becoming numb to the sorrow,” Biden said. “We have to resist viewing each life as a statistic or a blur.”

I can’t comprehend how people sneer at these numbers, claiming (falsely) that everyone who had died was soon going to die anyway etc etc. They ignore the huge personal suffering premature deaths inflict on families. Yes having someone die in their 30s is more tragic than in their 70s, but it is still a huge personal loss.

The latest data from the US is that the excess mortality in the US was 500,000 just from March to December 2020, while official Covid-19 deaths were 340,000. So excess deaths are running around 50% higher than the official death toll.

Newshub reports:

Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March tried not once, but twice, to get an emergency spot in managed isolation, the first time as a “critical health service” and the second time as “required for national security”. 

In a written parliamentary response to National MP Chris Bishop, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed that both applications for an emergency spot in managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) were declined. …

The written response from Hipkins shows Menéndez March first applied for an emergency spot in MIQ on January 13 under category 2b. 

It’s reserved for people whose entry to New Zealand is time-critical for the purpose of delivering specialist health services required to prevent serious illness, injury or death; or the maintenance of essential health infrastructure. 

So how is a Green MP involved in delivering specialist health services?

He then applied for a second time on January 15, under category 2d, for New Zealand and non-New Zealand citizens, where urgent travel is required for national security, national interest or law enforcement reasons. 

Unbelievable.

What an absolute sense of entitlement. Trying to knock someone who has probably been waiting months for a spot in MIQ by claiming he needs a spot for national security reasons.

Such a transformational government!

Stuff reports:

In January, New Zealand’s new Trade Minister Damien O’Connor suggested Australia should speak with more “respect” and “diplomacy” towards China. Shortly after the television interview, Morrison and Ardern spoke on the phone.

It wasn’t a dressing down; the Australian Prime Minister calmly stated his frustrations with the comments and Ardern was receptive to his concerns.

A few weeks earlier the country’s Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta had offered to mediate a truce between Canberra and Beijing, saying “both parties will have to be willing to come together and concede in some areas where they are currently not seeing eye to eye”. It was a remarkable proposition that a minister just months into the job could solve one of the thornier diplomatic problems in the world.

Morrison, Foreign Minister Marise Payne and senior Australian diplomats could barely hide their frustration at Mahuta’s and O’Connor’s comments. They believe it was harmful to the region’s security and an awful case of “false equivalence” that sent a bad message to regional allies, according to senior figures in the government familiar with the matter.

Australia has been slapped with billions of dollars in trade strikes from Beijing over the past year and the Chinese government has refused to return phone calls from Australian ministers. The last thing Canberra needed was its close ally sending a signal to the region that Australia and New Zealand were not united.

While Morrison let Ardern know of his concerns, O’Connor phoned his counterpart, Dan Tehan, to apologise days after the interview on American business channel CNBC in which he made the remarks.

Senior officials in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade were then told there wouldn’t be a repeat of O’Connor and Mahuta’s comments; the rookie ministers had apparently been reined in. In her first major speech as foreign minister last week, Mahuta called Australia “our only formal ally and an indispensable partner across the breadth of our international interests”.

Senior figures in the Morrison government separate Ardern’s public criticisms of Australia over deportations and citizenship revocations from the comments from O’Connor and Mahuta on China.

Ardern’s criticisms have always centred on issues affecting New Zealand, while the interventions from her ministers had nothing to do with her country and were deeply unhelpful to Australia.

It is good Mahuta and O’Connor have been reined in. Their comments were very ill-judged and just emboldens China.

Kate MacNamara at NZ Herald reports:

At the end of January New Zealand’s newly formed Climate Change Commission dropped a draft report of seismic proportions.

The suite of proposals aims to sideline the main mechanism for reducing and offsetting New Zealand’s man-made carbon emissions until now, the Emissions Trading Scheme. It would declare peak meat and dairy (our most valuable exports) and reduce livestock numbers from here.

And through a range of policy sticks, carrots and bans, it would have the Government reach into our living rooms and our driver’s seats, dictating everything from how we heat our homes to how we get to work, in a slew of new, invasive, but surprisingly inexpensive ways.

Their proposals would see the largest changes to the NZ economy in recent times. They are of huge importance and significance.

Last week a coalition of over a dozen New Zealand business and industry groups – including heavyweight exporters DairyNZ and the Meat Industry Association, Federated Farmers, mining group Straterra, the Motor Industry Association, the New Zealand Initiative, and BusinessNZ – penned a formal letter to Rod Carr, chair of the Climate Change Commission.

“We are pleased that the commission has, in response to requests, begun to release the models and underlying data that supports the commission’s findings,” it said.

“However, to constructively contribute submissions so that the commission is as well-informed as possible, we must be able to thoroughly review and comment on data and models which will influence major decisions about the future of our economy and society.”

“Given the delay in the release of crucial modelling data (not all of which is out yet),” the letter asked for an extension of the March 14th deadline for submissions by at least two weeks.

It’s a considerable failure that the commission neglected to release this data three weeks ago, along with the draft report. And the drip-feed of information, less than three weeks from the submission deadline, now threatens to reduce the window of public consultation to theatre.

It is hard to over-emphasise how vital it is their full model and data is released. There are many organisations with economic expertise who need to be able to access that data, so they can do their own modelling to help their submissions. Also to check the robustness of what has been proposed.

Without the release of the model and data, the submission process is basically a sham and window dressing.

There will be no chance of getting widespread political and business buy-in, if stakeholders can’t access this data.

All of this government rewiring of life to meet our greenhouse gas emissions targets is hardly going to cost us a penny: just under 1 per cent of the GDP we would otherwise reach in 2050. That’s considerably less than the 5 to 8 per cent of GDP estimated by NZIER in 2019.

Every economic I have talked to is highly sceptical of that 1% of GDP calculation. This is another reason the underlying data must be released.

The Green Party have been long-time champions of open data and open government. Nandor Tanczos and Gareth Hughes have done excellent work in the past in this area. They need to make sure this applies to their own portfolio of climate change. If James Shaw doesn’t agree to extend the timetable so there is time to release the model/s, consider them and submit, then it will turn very messy.

The Guardian reports:

Among the other government proposals that will be fleshed out on Tuesday is the appointment of a “free speech champion” who will investigate potential infringements of free speech in higher education and recommend redress.

In addition, a new free speech condition will be placed on universities in order to be registered and access public funding, and the higher education regulator in England, the Office for Students (OfS), will have the power to impose fines in the case of breaches.

Under the proposals, the government wants to introduce a statutory tort for breaches of the free speech duty, which would enable academic staff or students who have been expelled, dismissed or demoted to seek redress through the courts.

And for the first time the free speech duty will apply directly to student unions, which will be required to take steps to ensure free speech for their members as well as visiting speakers. The government is also looking at bringing student unions, which are currently governed by the Charity Commission, under OfS control.

Announcing the measures, the education secretary said: “Free speech underpins our democratic society and our universities have a long and proud history of being places where students and academics can express themselves freely, challenge views and cultivate an open mind.

“But I am deeply worried about the chilling effect on campuses of unacceptable silencing and censoring. That is why we must strengthen free speech in higher education, by bolstering the existing legal duties and ensuring strong, robust action is taken if these are breached.”

We’re not as bad in NZ as in the UK, but the Don Brash fiasco at Massey shows we are on the way. National should position itself as a champion of free speech, and propose similar legislation here.

Marie Dyhrberg QC writes:

Unfortunately, the bill crosses the line between assisting complainants and preventing accused men from effectively defending themselves. …

For instance, at the moment a complainant can record an interview with the police and have that played to the jury and only appear at the trial to answer the defence lawyer’s questions, out of view of the defendant.

What is proposed is that the defence lawyer would have to cross-examine the complainant in advance, say a year before trial. It is impossible for the defence lawyer to know what the issues are at that point. Cross-examination in advance is unworkable

And gets worse.

The bill also states that consent to sexual intimacy must be given every time, which no-one disputes, but then stretches logic to say the jury cannot hear about intimate encounters the same couple had previously. With a rape allegation, when the sex is not denied, the trial turns on whether the defendant had reasonable grounds for believing the complainant consented. Where a couple are in a relationship, that belief may well depend on what had been usual and acceptable between them before.

If the belief was unreasonable, let the jury decide, which they cannot do if the defendant is banned from telling his side of the story.

So a defendant can’t defend themselves.

While it is true that some victims do not come forward because they fear the trial process, it is also true that innocent men get accused, sometimes for very vindictive or perverse reasons.

Other areas of the criminal law, such as assault and fraud, have victims, including vulnerable ones. But we do not suggest that the conviction rate for these offences be unjustifiably or unlawfully bolstered by preventing accused persons from legitimately defending themselves with relevant evidence.

In some ways this law is no surprise. Before the 2017 election Andrew Little proposed that men who have sex with women be presumed guilty of rape unless they can prove they had consent. So Little wanted you presumed guilty instead of presumed innocent, upon accusation.

Stuff reports:

Government advice suggests the new Matariki public holiday will cost businesses between $377 – $448 million.

But that advice does not include any potential economic benefits from the new public holiday, set to be introduced from next year.

Labour campaigned on introducing Matariki as New Zealand’s 12th public holiday, arguing New Zealand had fewer public holidays than most other rich nations and should respect the Māori new year at Matariki.

The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment estimated that this would cost the country’s 534,930 businesses up to $448m.

I’m all for Matariki as a holiday, but not as an additional one.

It should have replaced the rather daft Queen’s Birthday.