The Herald reports:

Albert Uderzo, one of the two creators of the beloved comic book character Asterix, who captured the spirit of the Gauls of yore and grew a reputation worldwide, died on Tuesday. He was 92.

The French press quoted family members as saying that Uderzo died of a heart attack in the Paris suburb of Neuilly.

As a child I had every Asterix book and read them scores of times. I still have them all and look forward to introducing Asterix to Ben and Sam.

My favourite character was Obelix and then Dogmatix.

Hard to pick just one favourite book from the 38, but here’s my top few:

• Asterix and Cleopatra
• Asterix at the Olympic Games
• Asterix in Britain

Thank you to Albert Uderzo for bringing so much joy to so many people.

I’m posting this here as more people will see it than on the Curia website.

Curia closed its physical office and call centre today.

However we have managed to utilise technology so that some of our staff can make calls from home, and securely record responses. This means Curia will be able to continue to provide quantitative research services over the next month.

Obviously there will be no qualitative research or focus groups.

I’m pleased that we’re able to have our staff continue to earn money during this period, and provide services to our clients.

So if you do get called by someone from Curia, rest assured they are calling from their home where they are in self-isolation.

And if you do have any research needs during the next month, feel free to contact me. Our prices are here and we can insert questions into our weekly omnibus poll or do standalone research.

The Government has been good at slogans in this crisis, but the substance is often lacking.

They claimed we were going early and hard when in fact the initial response was belated and soft – the so called voluntary isolation.

The travel restrictions when imposed were after many other countries had done them.

But the real failure has been our lack of checks at the border.

Most New Zealanders probably think our borders are closed.

I have been told by a well placed source the reality is that around 6,000 people have arrived in New Zealand since they were “closed” and by end of the week it will be 20,000

Those arriving are not given health checks in airports, such as in many countries where they use thermal scanners. They are not tested for COVID-19. They are not quarantined. They are basically just given a pamphlet.

We know most of the infections are coming from overseas. We should be testing every arrival.

UPDATE: Since I wrote this, the Government has finally announced there will be screening at the border, and some testing. Better late than never should be the motto for the Government’s response!

The PM said on Monday:

Well, testing, obviously, is already at rates that are comparable to, for instance, Korea that is being held up at gold-standard level.

This is wildy far from the truth. On Monday the data was:

So we have tested one in every 578 people and South Korea one in every 152. Our rate is not comparable to Korea unless you consider one quarter the rate is “comparable”.

Stuff reports:

The Government has announced a mortgage holiday for those affected by coronavirus.

At a press conference on Tuesday Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the major retail banks had agreed to a six-month mortgage holiday for people who had their income affected due to Covid-19. 

The exact criteria was yet to be finalised, but it would cover both principal and interest payments.

A lot of people don’t realise that a mortgage holiday is a mere delay in payments, not a waiving of payments. If you take advantage of the mortgage holiday, you will end up owing more to your bank and paying them more over time.

I’ll give an example. Let’s say you live in Auckland and have just brought a house at the median price of $875,000.

You have the 20% deposit so take out a mortgage for 80% or $700,000. Assume a 25 year term and you get monthly repayments of $3,891 and total interest paid of $467.248.

Now let’s say you take the six month holiday. Your $700,000 owing grows at 0.375% a month so at the end of that six month holiday you owe $715,898.

You continue paying $3,891 a month but it now takes 27 years to pay off your mortgage, not 25 and the total interest paid is 501,450.

So you end up paying $34,202 more in interest.

So people should only take up the mortgage holiday if they absolutely need it. It is a holiday on payments, not a holiday on interest accruing (based on info known to date).

Also worth noting the reality is that almost all banks would give mortgage holders a payments holiday if needed, rather than foreclose. It is much more profitable for a bank to have you keep paying interest than selling your home and just getting back their original loan.

If your mortgage was so large that a payments holiday means the mortgage might be greater than the value of the section, then banks might be reluctant.

So in reality the Government guarantee won’t actually change bank decisions significantly, and people should only take up the holiday if they really need to (ie have lost their income and have no savings they can use).

This shows what exponential growth looks like. Hopefully it will slow soon, as the lockdown takes effect.

In one week we’ve gone from 11 cases to 155. The daily growth for the last week has been:

• 73%
• 47%
• 39%
• 33%
• 27%
• 55%
• 52%

If you take even the lowest daily growth of 27%, and apply forward you would be:

• 31 Mar: 826
• 7 Apr: 4,401

If the daily growth is 50%, then:

• 31 Mar: 2,648
• 7 Apr: 67,874

But if the measures work and the rate slows to 10% then:

• 31 Mar: 302
• 7 Apr: 647

So let’s hope they work.

Newsroom reports:

From 11.59pm on Wednesday night, the Government will assume hitherto unseen control over the lives of New Zealanders.

With Parliament joining other workplaces in entering lockdown, the obvious question was who would hold our elected ministers and officials to account.

In the wake of the unprecedented decision, Leader of the House Chris Hipkins promised an accountability mechanism of sorts to keep a check on the executive. Now, some more meat has been put on those bones of that promise.

Speaking to media on Tuesday, Speaker Trevor Mallard confirmed Parliament’s business committee – made up of representatives from all political parties – had agreed to establish a special select committee to run for at least the next month in the absence of Parliament.

The 11-person committee will be chaired by National leader Simon Bridges or a nominee of his choosing, and will have five National MPs in total –  meaning the Opposition, with the addition of ACT leader David Seymour, will hold a majority (a relatively rare state of affairs).

Mallard said the committee would have “unusual powers” akin to those of the Privileges Committee – the powerful body tasked with investigating alleged breaches of privilege or contempt of the House, and has subpoena-like powers to summon people and receive documents.

It’s good the Opposition has a majority on the committee and chairs it. That means it should be able to effectively scrutinise the decisions made.

David Seymour argues Parliament should not close though:

“We accept that the Government has a difficult task ahead. All New Zealanders stand ready to support it. But this is no reason to partially suspend democracy.

“The Prime Minister will soon issue an epidemic notice and invoke the Epidemic Preparedness Act. This legislation gives the Government the ability to change almost any law at the stroke of a pen. The Health Act will allow medical officers to enter any premises, detain people, prescribe treatment, and take possession of land and buildings.

“It may be necessary for the Government to have these extraordinary powers. If so, it is critical that Parliament is able to continue to hold the Government to account.

“Indeed, the Epidemic Preparedness Act explicitly says that Parliament should scrutinise any law changes made under that Act.

“New Zealanders have just faced the greatest peacetime loss of civil liberties in our history, and it is possible we may not have an election this year. ACT believes there should be a Question Time and local electorate offices should remain open. Half of New Zealanders did not vote for this Government. It is wrong to suppress their representation.

“The Government should deem democracy an essential service. If we need couriers, banks, and breakfast radio shows, then we also need democracy. We will have a situation where The Warehouse and the Waitakere Licensing Trust are able to remain open, but democratic accountability has been partially suppressed.

Fair points. I know quite a few MPs are not happy their electorate offices have to shut. Their job is to help people in need, and there will be a lot of people needing assistance during this time.

In response to the speed in which the economic and political environment is changing due to COVID-19, we have brought forward the launch of our podcast.  The first interview was last Thursday and Friday with Damian Grant and Dr Michael Ridell who take opposing views on the extent to which the Government should intervene to keep people in their jobs during the crisis. The third episode (recorded yesterday) we talked to Dr Matt Boyd, a specialist in health economics and global catastrophic risk, and Dr Don Brash, former RBNZ Governor.

You can subscribe to Taxpayer Talk via Spotify here (press “follow” after clicking the link) or Apple Podcasts here.

We welcome your feedback / constructive criticism as we master the art of casting the pod from self-isolation!

You can subscribe to Taxpayer Talk via Spotify here (press “follow” after clicking the link). Apple Podcast approval is still in process.

We welcome your feedback / constructive criticism as we master the art of casting the pod from self-isolation!

I’m supportive of the Government’s decision to lockdown the country. But I also believe decisions should be made on robust information, and ultimately all the decisions around the pandemic are weighing up benefits and costs of both action and inaction.

Martin Lally of Capital Financial Consultants has done a short paper looking at the potential costs, which I am publishing to allow informed debate.

The Costs and Benefits of a Covid Lockdown by David Farrar on Scribd

I’d note that one issue is that even if a Government doesn’t go for a suppression strategy, there will still be a drop in economic activity due to the actions of other countries, and many people deciding not to travel, shop, eat out etc.

But of course it would be less than the economic cost of suppression.

After this is all over, we should have a Commission of Inquiry to look to whether our responses were the best ones, were there better alternatives, and what might we do differently in future. The aim is not to cast blame, but to learn.

Some people may not like an analysis that puts a value on human life but this is commonly done for road safety and ACC etc. Also worth remembering that there is a very real toll on families who do end up with members losing their jobs, their incomes, maybe even their houses etc. So it is important to always focus on benefits and costs of all options.

The PM and her helpers have been saying that it is unhelpful for the Opposition to criticise the Government because we are in a crisis.

Considering that the Government’s response (up until Monday) has been criticised by hundreds of doctors, numerous public health professionals, the entire NZ Teaching Council and the former Chief Scientific Adviser to the PM, it seems ludicrous to suggest the only person in NZ not allowed to be critical is the Leader of the Opposition.

Claire Trevett makes the point:

Whenever somebody argues that there should be “unity” and no criticism from the media or the Opposition, it brings to mind the days after the Pike River Mine disaster.

Then there was a similar approach to the mine management during the press conferences: that it was not the time for criticism or hard questions, but for support. Peter Whittall was the good guy.

The ones asking hard questions in those press conferences were the Australian journalists. It transpired those journalists were right all along.

A good reminder.

And John Armstrong writes:

A politician of Mr Bridges’ experience does not need to be told that in such times as now, the public gives short shrift to those who are constantly carping from the sidelines.

He has accordingly carefully targeted his criticism into matters of concern, most notably the number of tests being conducted by health authorities when faced with possible cases of coronavirus.

In Parliament last Wednesday, Mr Bridges bombarded the Prime Minister with questions about the amount of testing that had been done. Ms Ardern’s response was to ignore those questions. She instead accused Mr Bridges of being “borderline irresponsible”. 

Her parting shot was to tell him that “this doesn’t have to be political”. Coming from someone who had presided over the release of an economic rescue package the day before which included a $25 increase in welfare benefits, that was a bit rich.  

Sure, the consequent $2.8 billion cash injection over four years is in line with the Government’s fiscal pump-priming. 

The unexpected handout bore all the hallmarks of an election-year Budget sweetener, however, with the additional purpose of salving the consciences of Labour and Green Party MPs.

For his part, Mr Bridges cited the increase in benefit rates as indicative of the “confused priorities” and the money should have been diverted to expand the payment of wage subsidies.

That is a valid argument — and one which is hardly “irresponsible”. 

Paul Goldsmith has an op ed which is excellent:

The Government announced a $12.1 billion economic package on Tuesday “to support New Zealanders and their jobs from the global impact of Covid-19”. This equates to around 4 per cent of New Zealand’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

The reality is, however, that only around half of that package can possibly be spent in the next two or three months. When we need it. That is around two per cent of GDP.

Yes with this Government ignore the slogan and look at the substance. It was a $6 billion package and far from being one of the largest in the world is one of the smallest.

The primary source of urgent assistance is the $5.1b wage subsidy scheme. This we support. But the $150,000 cap for businesses, which translates to 21 full time staff, means that around half or more of New Zealand’s workforce won’t be covered the scheme.

While it’s true that most businesses in New Zealand are small, the majority of workers currently work for the 5000 businesses that employ more than 50 people.

Just think of a large scale tourist bus operator with hundreds of employees. This business’s revenues will have collapsed. A subsidy capped at 21 employees will be of little assistance.

Our strong view is that the government’s immediate package of economic support – $6b at best – is far too light.

It is. Luckily the Government has now done what National suggested and removed the cap of $150,000.

We cannot possibly stop every job loss, nor avoid every business collapse. But we can, and we should, do more to save as many jobs as we can.

Remember this is an economic shock created by government responses to a virus. This is why successive governments have reduced debt when they could. This is what we’ve prepared for.

Of course Labour claimed National reducing debt was austerity and they constantly called for much more spending which would have never seen us back in surplus and paying debt off.

Bomber Bradbury writes:

we need an economic response that matches the danger we face and targets certain groups within society. …

• Tax amnesty for small and medium business: They are the ones who will suffer the most, allow a tax amnesty with the usual penalties cancelled.
• Welfare: Everyone will be scrambling for some type of welfare, it will need to be increased, and the draconian punitive crap dumped.
• Immigration Freeze: We will need to freeze immigration at a time of economic crisis because everyone will be fleeing.
• Rent Freeze: Don’t allow greedy Landlords to benefit from a crisis.
• Minimum Wage Freeze: We can’t seriously be asking small business to pay people more as the economy collapses.

So when the the guy whose politics are to the left of Lenin thinks putting up the minimum wage next week is a bad idea, why is the Government persisting?

The true test of leadership is not doing things you sort of wanted to do anyway (put up benefits) but doing stuff you really don’t want to do, but accepting the circumstances have changed.

National really wanted to do tax cuts in 2009 but cancelled them because of the GFC.

Why is Labour unwilling to delay the increase in the minimum wage?

At a minimum if they proceed, they should cover the costs themselves, rather than impose extra costs on small businesses that are struggling to survive.

The Government has announced will move to Level 4, effectively a total shutdown, in 48 hours. It will remain in place for at least four weeks.

They have also removed the cap on the wage subsidy (both things being stuff National had called for).

These are good moves.

The Taxpayers Union announced:

The Taxpayers’ Union has launched a campaign aiming to force New Zealand’s mayors and regional council chairs to commit to a 12-month rates freeze in light of current economic challenges.

While the Government prioritises economic relief for struggling families and employers, most local councils are still planning significant rate hikes in the coming months. Some plan to hike rates up to nine or ten percent from 1 July.

In the letter to mayors and chairs, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says, “The Government is currently prioritising economic relief for businesses and households facing economic calamity. But rate hikes at this time of economic turmoil will serve to exacerbate immediate financial stresses and undermine the Government’s relief strategy. Any economist will tell you that a recession is the most damaging time to hike taxes.”

Putting up taxes during a recession is callous. It makes the recession worse, and it hurts struggling families and businesses. Businesses facing massive revenue drops can’t afford a rates increase. Families who have had a member laid off, can’t afford a rates increase.

This is not a normal situation. Councils must realise they have to play their part. They can do what central Government is doing, and borrow against their balance sheets for 12 months, rather than make the recession longer and deeper.

You can sign the petition for a rates freeze here.

Stuff reports:

The Government’s landmark freshwater reforms look in doubt after Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones indicated he would likely follow calls from some in the agricultural sector not to “hobble” them with new regulation at a time when the economy was weakened by the coronavirus outbreak.

The proposals were intended to clean up waterways, which had become polluted in many cases due to intensive farming and irrigation.

“I’ve got multiple requests to visit industry leaders around the regions, these calls are coming from our backbone industry leaders,” Jones said.

“They have all told me it is not an appropriate time to hobble our export earning industries,” he said.

Shane is right on this one.

It is economic suicide to be increasing costs on businesses in the midst of what may be the greatest economic recession in 90 years. This is not business as normal. Business incomes are not dropping by 1% or 5% but in some cases by 50% or 70%.

Parker declined to comment for this story, although Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told media at her post-cabinet press conference last week that the Government was “not at this stage” considering any moratorium on new regulations.

Why in God’s name not?

What part of economic emergency is hard to understand.

Any new regulation that is not both urgent and critical should be put on hold, until the economy is out of recession.

Bad enough the minimum wage increase is not being postponed, but to then keep loading other costs on businesses at this time will just lead to many more people losing their jobs.

Labour MPs are running ads like this up and down the country, and as paid ads on Facebook.

We’re in the middle of a pandemic, and Labour MPs are trying to win votes by talking about the recovery from COVID-19.

Could you imagine the outcry if National MPs were running adverts just days after the Christchurch earthquakes boasting of how well placed the recovery is.

Labour has been pretty much demanding that National not criticise anything they decide, as that is politicising an emergency – yet they think it is fine for them to run adverts seeking to gain political capital from the pandemic.

UPDATE2: Another Labour ad (they have paid to promote it)

So they’re proud of all the headlines. They’ve missed out the headlines where their response has been panned by hundreds in the medical profession, the entire teaching profession, public health professors and the former Chief Science Adviser to the PM.

UPDATE3: Not just Labour. Greens are fundraising off the pandemic:

I am about to ask you for the most important donation to our campaign this year, but first I want to tell you why it is so important.

The most significant financial decisions of this election campaign will be made on 1 April. These decisions will determine how effective and successful our campaign will be and what kind of future we will be leaving for our kids and grandkids.

In these uncertain times for our Green whānau I have an unshakable belief in us as a community. In the last two months, we have gone through a lot. So there has never been a more important time to come together as a community.That is why today I’m only asking for $3 to show your solidarity. Will you support our campaign?

So the Greens have let out of the bag another financial package on 1 April, and are using the pandemic as a fundraiser.

So due to frustration with the Government’s measures, Hone is organising a vigilante action up North.

This is the last thing we need. Only central or local government should be enforcing restrictions on travel. The Government needs to ensure vigilante actions are not tolerated.

The concerns of those up north are warranted. But the answer is to pressure the Government to take more effective measures, not to set up vigilante road blocks.

It’s good that the Government has now published a guide to what we can expect in the future in terms of restrictions on work and movement. Of course it should have been out weeks ago, not two months into the crisis.

One of the most difficult things for the public has been the radical shifts in stance from the Government, often within 24 hours. We went from no need to take action against travellers from Italy to needing to take action against every country on Earth. We went literally within 24 hours from no need to cancel March 15 commemorations to cancelling then. We had the half hearted self quarantine policy which a few days later became the much needed travel ban.

So the four alert levels should help in terms of the public knowing what the likely next steps are. However there are still two big questions.

The first is it is not clear what the criteria will be to step down an alert level, once there. Is it expected Level 4 would last for weeks or for months? What is the criteria to decide Level 4 can be wound back to Level 3?

The bigger question though, and a crucial one, is whether the Government is right to have New Zealand at only Level 2, rather than Level 3 or even 4.

The difference may be massive.

An excellent analysis is on Medium by Tomas Pueyo. His previous analysis has been viewed over 40 million times, It has been endorsed by numerous public health experts.

He is scathing of the mitigation strategy which is around flattening the curve.

This is based on the UK. It shows flattening the curve still has the need for ICU beds well in excess of capacity by more than a factor of 10. And also it means the health system remains at over capacity for longer.

The current UK policy is the blue line. Better than the black line, but still terrible.

So the author recommends a suppression strategy:

Go hard right now. Order heavy social distancing. Get this thing under control.

Suppression does mean that people will eventually get infected, so what is the benefit of delaying it. He explains:

He looks at how Governments need to do everything to get the rate of infection (r) below 1. And how all decisions should be data driven based on cost and likely effectiveness.

I really recommend people read the whole article, then decide for yourselves if you think being at Alert Level 2 is a sensible level or not. Should we going for a mitigation strategy or a suppression strategy? If the latter, then shouldn’t we be at Alert Level 4?

Newshub reported:

A neighbourhood’s residents have been left scratching their heads after an email sent by a local vegan asked them to shut their windows while cooking meat to stop “offensive” smells. 

The anonymous email was shared on Twitter account Best of Nextdoor, which showcases “the best of community drama”.

In the letter, the vegan runner reveals to neighbours that it’s hard for them at the start of the year, “when the weather starts warming up and folks start opening their windows”. 

“Several nights a week I’m out running around dinnertime, and when people have their windows open I can smell what they are cooking.”

The jogger says the smell of cooking meat “can be quite overpowering” and “offensive”. 

“I’m hoping our community can have some empathy for its #plantbased neighbours by closing their windows if they’re cooking meat and only putting vegetables on their bbq.”

The person finishes by saying they “don’t want to be a stereotype”. 

Well failed at that.

No surprise that this happened in Berkeley. It’s the only city in America where Jill Stein got more votes than Donald Trump. Only 3% of the population are Republicans.

Meet the Planet Party. Their policies include:

• All coal mines to be closed down and all coal imports/exports to be banned
• All oil and natural gas extraction to be shut down in New Zealand

This would mean power shortages on a regular basis.

• Total ban of any further imports of Petrol or Diesel fuelled vehicles

So poor people have to buy a Tesla.

So NZ prices will massively increase while the other countries won’t care as we’re a minnow.

Two must read related articles.

First from The Spectator:

At first glance, Nathan Taylor might seem the very definition of a ‘right on’ hipster. He goes by the name of ‘Sockmatician’ online and he’s famous in the knitting world for his complicated double-knit patterns. On his Instagram, in between videos of people speed-knitting and many, many photos of socks, Taylor had posts about what it was like to be an HIV-positive man who came out in the 1980s. He dislikes Donald Trump and Brexit. He has even set up ‘inclusive hashtags’ such as #diversknitty, and his profile carefully sets out the pronouns people should use to address him.

So far, so woke. But recently Sockmatician has found himself accused of being a ‘white supremacist’, committing ‘violence against people from ethnic minorities’ and being ‘dangerous’. His crime wasn’t to suddenly join the alt-right, but something apparently far worse. He posted a poem on Instagram about ‘diversknitty’ in which he boasted it was a year since he had founded this hashtag, and asked that people use it kindly, rather than attacking one another.

What could be offensive about this? Taylor had apparently committed ‘violence against Bipoc’ — black and indigenous people of colour — by telling them how to conduct their arguments about inclusion. He was ‘tone policing’ people of colour and, as a white man, this was wrong.

On and on the comments raged — until Taylor turned them off, complaining that he had been misunderstood. The row naturally moved straight below the next post, which was ostensibly about a lace knit shawl, and into a spree of pictures and stories from other knitters about how much damage the Sockmatician had caused the Bipoc community. Then up popped a message from Taylor’s husband, who said he had gone into hospital. ‘Your messages of anger have been processed. Please now send love,’ it read.

No love was forthcoming. Instead, there was the sound of more knitting needles being drawn. Posters accused Taylor of ‘gaslighting’ them by using his mental health as an excuse for not being accountable. Some said they hoped he recovered quickly — so he could reflect on the damage he had caused.

So he got all this abuse because he dared to ask people to be kind to each other.

It seems insane, but there is a reason this happened. The second article at Unherd explains about purity wars:

I decided to call both the phenomenon and the documentary, “The Purity Spiral”. A purity spiral occurs when a community becomes fixated on implementing a single value that has no upper limit, and no single agreed interpretation. The result is a moral feeding frenzy.

But while a purity spiral often concerns morality, it is not about morality. It’s about purity — a very different concept. Morality doesn’t need to exist with reference to anything other than itself. Purity, on the other hand, is an inherently relative value — the game is always one of purer-than-thou. …

It’s not just another word for ‘woke culture’, or even ‘cancel culture’, or ‘virtue signalling’. Even though intersectional social justice is a pretty great breeding ground for purity spirals, it is one among many. Nor is it confined to the Left: neo-Nazi groups offer some of the clearest examples of purity spirals: the ongoing parsing of ethnic purity into ever-more Aryan sub-groups. Perhaps the most classic one of all hails from Salem, Massachusetts.

It is a social dynamic that plays out across that community — a process of moral outbidding, unchecked, which corrodes the group from within, rewarding those who put themselves at the extremes, and punishing nuance and divergence relentlessly.

A purity spiral propagates itself through the tipping points of preference falsification: through self-censorship, and through loyalty tests that weed out its detractors long before they can band together. In that sense, once one takes hold, its momentum can be very difficult to halt.

So beware the purity spiral.