A poll of UK Labour members asked them if they had favourable views of all their previous leaders.

Amazingly the guy who got their worst result in 80 years topped the poll. In order their leader favourability is:

1. Jeremy Corbyn (lost two elections) 71%
2. Ed Miliband (lost one election) 70%
3. John Smith (died) 67%
4. Clement Attlee (won two elections, PM for 6 years) 66%
5. Gordon Brown 65% (lost one election)
6. Harold Wilson 62% (won three, lost two elections, PM for 8 years)
7. Neil Kinnock 46% (lost one election)
8. Michael Foot 45% (lost one election)
9. James Callaghan (lost one election)
10. Tony Blair 37 (won three elections, lost none, PM for 10 years)

They really love their losers, don’t they.

The PM has been using this graph a lot. She used it in presentations. And on Facebook.

But it is misleading as hell. And remember this is the PM who just days ago said she wanted a truthful election campaign.

Here’s the two most dodgy parts of the graph.

1. The figures for National have the revenue from partial asset sales deducted from them. It is net capital flows, which is quite different from gross capital investment. So that’s a $4.6 billion difference.
2. The figures for Labour include transfers to the NZ Super Fund. That makes up $12.5 billion of Labour’s capital investment. A transfers to the NZ Super Fund to invest in global sharemarkets is not the same as investing in roads, schools and hospitals here.

The PM is trying to fool people into thinking Labour is spending more on infrastructure. In fact Labour’s capital spending in in 2018 and 2019 was less than National was projecting the the 2017 PREFU. Labour spent $300 million less than National was projecting in 2017 and $900 million less in 2018.

Sadly one can’t complain to the Advertising Standards Authority about Jacinda’s dodgy graph because she is only using it on her Facebook page and in presentations.

The Electoral Commission published this timetable for the election.

• Sat 19 September – Election Day. Preliminary election results
• Fri 2 October – Preliminary referendum results
• Fri 9 October – Final election and referendum results

A 13 day delay for preliminary referendum results is outrageous. I can’t think of any other country that has run a referendum and said we won’t tell you the result for two weeks.

Sure take two or three weeks for the final result, but only third world authoritarian regimes run referendums and don’t release the results for two weeks.

Back in August 2018 (just 18 months ago) the cycle and pedestrian bridge known as SkyPath was costed at $67 million for the three km cycleway. That is $23 million per km.

In January 2020 the Government has announced that it will cost $360 million, or $120 million per km.

How can something increase 440% in 18 months?

How can a cycleway (even one over a harbour) cost $120 million per km?

The Herald reports:

A white supremacist jailed for sharing disturbing footage of the Christchurch mosque shootings has been banned from the city’s two mosques – and from having any contact with all Muslims.

Philip Neville Arps, 45, who was sentenced to 21 months in prison last June for spreading disturbing footage of the Al Noor Mosque massacre, will be released from custody today.

Arps will be electronically monitored with a GPS tracker, an ankle bracelet that will trigger alerts if he enters “exclusion zones” around Al Noor Mosque and the Linwood Masjid in Christchurch where the shootings happened.

These seem like sensible restrictions.

Arps is a neo-Nazi. He isn’t just a critic of Islam (which is legitimate), but he hates Muslims. He celebrated the mosque massacre and asked for a kill count to be added to the video.

Judge O’Driscoll today approved extra special release conditions, which includes a ban on Arps entering or loitering near any mosque, prayer room, or any other place where the Muslim community congregates, without prior written approval from his probation officer.
The Christchurch businessman, who owns a Nazi-themed insulation company, is also not allowed to contact or associate with any Muslims without approval.

Presumably this means deliberate contact, not accidental such as being in a supermarket at the same time etc.

Arps, who does not hold a gun licence and has more than 30 previous criminal convictions for indecent assault, guns, drugs, burglary, and fraud, is also not allowed to possess or use firearms, or to be involved in airsoft or BB gun activities.

Sounds like he’ll be back in prison sooner or later.

The Australian Foreign Minister released:

Australia was proud to gain full membership of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance in June 2019. We will share through that forum our approach to Holocaust remembrance, education and research, including our efforts to counter the spread of online Holocaust denial and anti-semitism.

Anti-semitism is one of the most insidious forms of gross human rights abuse. Defeating it continues to be integral to Australia’s human rights agenda.

This got me interested as to what countries are and are not members. So I checked.

There’s 34 full members and eight associates. Guess which is basically the only Western country not a member?

Yes, New Zealand.

Now the IHRA has been going since 1998, so this is not the fault of any one Government. Here’s when other countries joined:

• 1990s: France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, UK, US
• 2000s: Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Croatia, Czech, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland
• 2010-2014: Finland, Ireland, Serbia, Slovenia
• 2015-2019: Australia, Bulgaria, Portugal

But surely it is time New Zealand joined. It is through the work of groups such as the IHRA that we ensure the Holocaust is not forgotten and buried in time.

So challenge to NZ political parties. Will you pledge to have NZ apply to join the IHRA?

NewstalkZB reports:

Parliament’s Speaker Trevor Mallard is being sued following his claim last year that a rapist was working at Parliament.

A Parliamentary worker stood down last May after Mallard’s comments is alleging the Speaker defamed him.

The Parliamentary worker has hired Matthew McClelland QC who refused to comment on the defamation proceedings which are seeking $400,000 in general damages, $50,000 in punitive damages and court costs.  Mallard is being represented by a Queen’s Counsel from Kensington Swan. The firm’s media lawyer Linda Clark, a former TVNZ political editor, is also involved in the case and refused to comment.

On a minor note, a QC does not work in a law firm. Kensington Swan will be the instructing solicitor, and the QC will be an independent barrister.

On the wider issue, it will be a fascinating case. There may be more details we don’t know, but on what has been reported the parliamentary staffer appears to have substantive grounds. But again we don’t know full facts.

Stuff reports:

Britain has decided to allow Chinese tech giant Huawei to supply new high-speed network equipment, ignoring the US government’s warnings that it would sever intelligence cooperation if the company was not banned.

Britain’s decision is the first by a major US ally in Europe, and follows intense lobbying from the Trump administration and China as the two vie for technological dominance.

It sets up a diplomatic clash with the Americans, who claim that British sovereignty is at risk because the company could give the Chinese government access to data, an allegation Huawei denies.

“We would never take decisions that threaten our national security or the security of our Five Eyes partners,” Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said, referring a security arrangement in which Britain, the United States, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, share intelligence. 

The UK would not make this decision, if there was a serious concern.

The campaign against Huawei is being driven by the US Government as part of trade protectionism. They are just trying to cripple a hugely successful competitor to US companies.

NZ may have succumbed to the bullying from the US, but good to see the UK has not.

Stuff reports:

RNZ has also been told the amended proposal puts a specific emphasis on the fact the new company will be primarily a public service media outlet, and to ensure that is made crystal clear in any legislation, and through a charter.

That would also help to alleviate some of the strongly expressed concerns some ministers had about a “culture clash” – namely the risk the public broadcasting ethos could be subsumed by an aggressive commercial imperative once the new company was established and operating in the media marketplace.

As in the original proposal, the company would still have the ability to fund some of its operations through commercial or advertising revenue.

It seems the Government has decided in principle to merge TVNZ and Radio NZ.

One is a commercial broadcaster one is a public broadcaster. If the merger was to create one unified public broadcaster or one unified commercial broadcaster it could work.

But what the Government is doing as absolutely the worst possible option. A hybrid broadcaster.

If the broadcaster is dependent on commercial and advertising revenue to cover its expenses, then that will dominate. There is no way it won’t.

So what you will have is a taxpayer subsidised commercial broadcaster that will decimate private sector rivals.

So two years after cancelling pretty much every roading project started by the previous Government, Labour have now decided to fund $6 billion of roading projects.

I guess this is progress.

What a waste of two years.

An insightful Gallup poll asks Americans how satisfied they are on around 30 issues. What is interesting is the changes from Jan 2017 to Jan 2020. The big increases are:

• state of economy +22%
• security from terrorism +18%
• military strength +15%
• race relations +14%
• crime +9%
• position of blacks +9%
• income distribution +8%
• opportunity to get ahead +6%

Those that have decreased are:

• environmental quality -6%
• level of immigration -6%
• abortion policies -7%

Those areas with increases bode well for an incumbent president. People might not like Trump, but they are much happier than three years ago on issues that matter.

The Serious Fraud Office announced:

The Serious Fraud Office filed criminal charges today against four people in relation to donations paid into a National Party electorate bank account.

The defendants are scheduled to appear in the Auckland District Court on 25 February.

The SFO will not make any further comment until any name suppression issues have been dealt with.

I have no knowledge of the case, but my assumption is that the four people are the donors, not anyone from the party.

As charges have been laid, I assume the SFO is alleging that the individual donors were not donating their own money (which would be legal) but donating on behalf of someone else (which must be disclosed by them). This is quite wrong, as our disclosure laws state you can’t be a conduit for someone else, without disclosing their identity.

Basically it is quite legal for someone to ask say 10 friends to each donate $10,000 each, and have them all recorded as individual donations under the $15,000 disclosure limit. This is known as bundling.

But it is illegal to give $10,000 each to 10 friends and ask them to donate it on your behalf.

Now again I have no knowledge of the details of this case, but the fact of the charges suggest this is the most likely scenario.

This is of course very embarrassing for National. Even though the party presumably (if correct the charges are against the donors only) did nothing wrong (in fact HQ insisted on getting details for each donor, and verifying they were eligible to donate), it is still a bad look to have charges laid in relation to a donation to you.

At a minimum the party should, once the legal issues are dealt with, refund the donation.

Newshub reports:

Despite starring in an air force rock video that has clocked up almost a million views online, Tim Costley hopes his legacy lies not in music but in politics.

Costley, a former aide to Prince William, is National’s candidate for Ōtaki.

The turn to politics comes after a 20-year career in the Air Force and follows an announcement last year that current National MP for Ōtaki, former Minister of Primary Industries Nathan Guy, would not be seeking reelection.

Costley admits that he didn’t quite know the effect the video – which can be found on YouTube under the title “Jet Pilot music video” – would have.

Good to see a candidate with a sense of humour.

Newshub reports:

New Zealand has come out on top in the new Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index.

The index ranks 180 countries and territories out of 100 and ranks based on how corrupt a country’s public sector is perceived to be by experts and business executives.

New Zealand scored 87 points, tying with Denmark. Finland closely followed the lead coming in third place with a score of 86. 

This is of course good news. But an idiot Minister had to try and score points by saying:

Justice Minister Andrew Little was also pleased with New Zealand’s result. 

“New Zealanders can be proud that our reputation as one of the least corrupt countries in the world has been restored,” said Little.

Restored? Restored?

So presumably in 2017, NZ was ranked terribly, and 2019 is a huge improvement. Let’s check.

In 2017, NZ was also 1st in the world. Not 1st= but 1st. So Little idiots desire to try and smear National just makes him look like a petulant fool.

And if one was to be picky, the absolute score in 2017 was 89, two higher than the 87 in 2019.

Stuff reports:

Phil Twyford’s former Senior Ministerial Advisor, Barry Ebert, remained the sole director and shareholder of his PR and lobbying firm during his two-year stint in the Beehive.

Ebert, who left the Beehive in January, is the director of PR and lobbying firm Three Point Two Communications, whose website advertises “advocacy and lobbying” services helping clients  “stay several steps ahead of your competitors and the regulators”.

Twyford is the Minister in charge of New Zealand’s transport regulators, such as NZTA the chief regulator for New Zealand transport, as well as the Civil Aviation Authority, which looks after air safety.

Nothing to see here at all.

The latest Police stats for the 12 months to 30 November 2019 show the following increases in crime:

• Assaults up 5.9%
• Sexual Assaults up 5.0%
• Burglaries up 6.3%
• Thefts up 8.0%

Generally crime has been trending down, so to have such large increases makes you wonder what has changed?

The headline:

One in four teens vapers have never smoked tobacco, study finds

But the actual data:

The latest study found that out of 27,083 year 10 students surveyed, 840 vaped daily. And 10,093 had tried at least one puff of an e-cigarette, up from 5633 in 2014.

So 37% of year 10 students have tried an e-cigarette. But 92% did not become regular uses and only 8% did. Which means overall prevalance rate is just 3.1%. Hardly an epidemic.

Lead author of the study, Associate Professor Dr Natalie Walker from the University of Auckland, said these findings were consistent with other national surveys and did not support the idea of a so-called youth vaping epidemic in New Zealand.

“Despite increases in experimentation, it is encouraging that daily use remains low, especially for non-smokers.

“In fact, we believe that e-cigarettes might be displacing smoking for young people. Concerns about youth vaping should be weighed against the possibility that e-cigarettes could decrease the risk of smoking initiation and support smoking youth to quit.”

Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) chairman Professor Robert Beaglehole said the findings were very encouraging as they showed that despite a lack of government oversight, youth vaping remains low, and largely confined to smokers.

“It is the smoke that kills, and without smoke vaping remains far less harmful than smoking.

“Encouraging existing smokers to switch could have substantial health gains. Of course, we do not want non-smokers, especially young people, to take up vaping, and this survey suggests that it is an unlikely scenario.”

So when you ignore the headline, the actual story is positive.

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is set to announce September 19 as the general election date at her first post-cabinet press conference of the year at 3pm today.

Much of Parliament will be heading to Waitangi next week, and Parliament is due to resume the following week where the Government parties and National Opposition will face off.

The last election was September 23, 2017 and the last possible date for an election this year is November 21.

New Zealand First is understood to have favoured a November election date while Labour and the Greens favoured an earlier one that will make it easier to mobilise tertiary students.

The date is what most people are expecting. If confirmed, then the election is only 235 days away.

An interesting poll from Morning Consult that doesn’t just ask approval of Trump overall, but also in various areas.

Here’s his net ratings (ABs – DEs) in each area:

1. Jobs +13%
2. Economy +11%
3. Fighting terrorism +2%
4. International trade -10%
5. Overall -11%
6. Immigration -14%
7. Foreign Relations -18%
8. Draining the Swamp -21%
9. National Debt -22%
10. Health Care -22%
11. Climate Change -33%

So his relative strengths are jobs, the economy and fighting terrorism. If the election is about those, he is more likely to win. If the election is about healthcare or foreign relations, less likely.

I doubt the election will be about foreign relations.

Stuff reports:

New Zealand’s gaming industry says it is being disadvantaged by old-fashioned systems that give subsidies to films but not interactive media.

Since 2014, the New Zealand Screen Production Grant for International productions has offered a cash rebate for “qualifying New Zealand production expenditure”.

That means, in many cases, film production companies can access rebates of about 20 per cent of their budget for international productions. Domestic productions can access up to 40 per cent.

But games developers say they are often competing for talent with companies that work on those film productions – such as Weta – but that they do not have access to the same financial support.

It’s not really comparing apples with apples. Yes they both employ skilled IT people, but a typical film or TV series will employ hundreds and hundreds of people while the typical game will be I suspect less than 10.

The reason for the film subsidy is because bringing the production of films to NZ results in a huge amount of spending (increasing GST etc).

Her organisation’s research showed that while New Zealand’s games industry earned over $143 million in 2018, the global market was worth $258b.

Gaining 1 per cent of the global video games market would generate $258m in new exports. The sector has grown 39 per cent annually for the last six years, and if an industry plan and Government support maintained this growth rate, the industry would be worth $1b in 2024.

A 39% growth rate is superb, and we have a great gaming industry who produce many popular games.

But past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Based on the data above, the industry has gone from $20 million six years ago to $143 million today, which is excellent. But an increase of $120 million is way different from saving you will grow a further $850 million.

Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford agreed that, with more Government support, gaming development could be a $1b industry.

“It’s the kind of industry we want to foster, it’s big on exporting, job rich, with skilled jobs that are well-paid, it’s carbon free – it ticks all the boxes.”

He said the Government was working through industry transformation plans, including one for the digital sector, which was already under way, and one for the creative sector later this year.

“The support we want to give to the interactive media industry will be considered within the creative sector industry transformation plan.”

He said gaming had “really bright” prospects.

I agree it has bright prospects, and there is a role for Government in assisting the industry. But not through huge subsidies.

The Herald reports:

Several Act supporters have expressed their outrage after party leader David Seymour called New Zealand “Aotearoa” in a Waitangi Day slogan.

Seymour released a slogan adapted from Donald Trump’s MAGA campaign, calling for Kiwis to “Make Aotearoa Great Again” ahead of Waitangi Day.

The 36-year-old MP told RNZ’s Morning Report that the MAGA message was probably the most successful campaign slogan of the past few years.

Because America and Aotearoa both begin with A “we thought we’d have a bit of fun”, Seymour said.

Quite a genius move.

The MAGA acronym is like a red rag to a bull for those on the left. Guaranteed they’d explode. And using Aotearoa is similar for some on the right. The result is you get huge free publicity for your event.