Labour’s blue budget

Guyon Espiner writes:

But inside this was a blue budget not a red one. It’s a description neither Labour nor National would like bestowed on Budget 2018 but this was a triumph of neoliberalism or at least a continuation of it.

Oh, not if you listen to the words of ministers, urging us to see this as rebuilding the frayed social fabric after years of neglect. But don’t listen to the words. Look at the numbers.

For years Labour has gone on about Health being underfunded by $2 billion a year. And in this budget they actually increased Vote Health by less than National did in 2017! Their rhetoric was just that.

Not only has Finance Minister Grant Robertson delivered a surplus of more than $3 billion, rising to more than $7 billion by 2021, he is actually going to spend less than National has been spending as a percentage of GDP.

Government spending – or core crown expenses in the jargon – will be 28 percent of GDP. That is lower than the figure for almost all of National’s three terms in office.

As a fiscal conservative, I’m pleased with this. However quality of spending matters also. They are wasting billions of dollars on free tertiary fees. I’d much rather that money went into areas of real need.

The glaring omission in this Budget was spending for Māori Development. I’ve written in this column before that the government strategy seems to be mainstreaming rather than targeted assistance for Māori. But even given that strategy the allocations are breathtakingly small.

Buried at the back of the Budget press pack is a release outlining just $37 million for Māori Development over four years, initiatives for housing, land development and youth not in work or education.

When you consider the Crown spends nearly $90 billion, it’s striking that the might of the Labour Māori caucus – there are five ministers’ names on that press statement – can only deliver $9 million a year.

Now Labour holds all the Maori seats and has got rid of the Maori Party, they can go back to take Maori for granted.

This looked like National’s tenth Budget rather than Labour’s first.

Some National budgets were effectively Labour lite budgets. This is a National lite budget.

How is open and transparent going?

Shane Cowlishaw writes:

As we enter the second half of the Government’s first year in office, can it claim to be the more open and transparent regime it promised to be?

So far, no way.

What a surprise.

Earlier this week, the Council for Civil Liberties put out a disappointed press release noting that Justice Minister Andrew Little had written a letter ruling out a review of the OIA.

In response, the Government is excusing itself by claiming it never promised legislative change.

Technically, that may be true. But until recently, some of them were certainly for it.

Back in December, Clare Curran, who is responsible for creating a more open and transparent government, told Newsroom that she would review the act alongside Little.

She also supported giving the Ombudsman the power to issue fines for breaches of the act, a measure that was promoted by Labour in a short-lived member’s bill.

Asked this week whether he supported the idea, Little said no.

They only supported it when it didn’t apply to them.

A former AP editor on how Israel is reported

A very informative article by Matti Friedman, a former reporter and editor in Jerusalem for the Associated Press.

He observes:

The Western press has become less an observer of this conflict than an actor in it, a role with consequences for the millions of people trying to comprehend current events, including policymakers who depend on journalistic accounts to understand a region where they consistently seek, and fail, to productively intervene.

An example:

I’ll begin with a simple illustration. The above photograph is of a student rally held last November at Al-Quds University, a mainstream Palestinian institution in East Jerusalem. The rally, in support of the armed fundamentalist group Islamic Jihad, featured actors playing dead Israeli soldiers and a row of masked men whose stiff-armed salute was returned by some of the hundreds of students in attendance. Similar rallies have been held periodically at the school.I am not using this photograph to make the case that Palestinians are Nazis. Palestinians are not Nazis. They are, like Israelis, human beings dealing with a difficult present and past in ways that are occasionally ugly. I cite it now for a different reason.

Such an event at an institution like Al-Quds University, headed at the time by a well-known moderate professor, and with ties to sister institutions in America, indicates something about the winds now blowing in Palestinian society and across the Arab world. The rally is interesting for the visual connection it makes between radical Islam here and elsewhere in the region; a picture like this could help explain why many perfectly rational Israelis fear withdrawing their military from East Jerusalem or the West Bank, even if they loathe the occupation and wish to live in peace with their Palestinian neighbors. The images from the demonstration were, as photo editors like to say, “strong.” The rally had, in other words, all the necessary elements of a powerful news story.

The event took place a short drive from the homes and offices of the hundreds of international journalists who are based in Jerusalem. Journalists were aware of it: The sizable Jerusalem bureau of the Associated Press, for example, which can produce several stories on an average day, was in possession of photos of the event, including the one above, a day later. (The photographs were taken by someone I know who was on campus that day, and I sent them to the bureau myself.) Jerusalem editors decided that the images, and the rally, were not newsworthy

An example of how many media won’t report anything that fits their worldview.

On the day that the AP decided to ignore the rally, November 6, 2013, the same bureau published a report about a pledge from the U.S. State Department to provide a minor funding increase for the Palestinian Authority; that was newsworthy. This is standard. To offer another illustration, the construction of 100 apartments in a Jewish settlement is always news; the smuggling of 100 rockets into Gaza by Hamas is, with rare exceptions, not news at all.

Only news that makes Israel look bad is regularly reported.

In my time in the press corps, I learned that our relationship with these groups was not journalistic. My colleagues and I did not, that is, seek to analyze or criticize them. For many foreign journalists, these were not targets but sources and friends—fellow members, in a sense, of an informal alliance. This alliance consists of activists and international staffers from the UN and the NGOs; the Western diplomatic corps, particularly in East Jerusalem; and foreign reporters. (There is also a local component, consisting of a small number of Israeli human-rights activists who are themselves largely funded by European governments, and Palestinian staffers from the Palestinian Authority, the NGOs, and the UN.) Mingling occurs at places like the lovely Oriental courtyard of the American Colony hotel in East Jerusalem, or at parties held at the British Consulate’s rooftop pool. …

In these circles, in my experience, a distaste for Israel has come to be something between an acceptable prejudice and a prerequisite for entry. I don’t mean a critical approach to Israeli policies or to the ham-fisted government currently in charge in this country, but a belief that to some extent the Jews of Israel are a symbol of the world’s ills, particularly those connected to nationalism, militarism, colonialism, and racism—an idea quickly becoming one of the central elements of the “progressive” Western zeitgeist, spreading from the European left to American college campuses and intellectuals, including journalists. In this social group, this sentiment is translated into editorial decisions made by individual reporters and editors covering Israel, and this, in turn, gives such thinking the means of mass self-replication.

Group think.

Around this time, a Jerusalem-based group called NGO Monitor was battling the international organizations condemning Israel after the Gaza conflict, and though the group was very much a pro-Israel outfit and by no means an objective observer, it could have offered some partisan counterpoint in our articles to charges by NGOs that Israel had committed “war crimes.” But the bureau’s explicit orders to reporters were to never quote the group or its director, an American-raised professor named Gerald Steinberg.* In my time as an AP writer moving through the local conflict, with its myriad lunatics, bigots, and killers, the only person I ever saw subjected to an interview ban was this professor.

And this is why trust in media is so low.

Hamas’s strategy is to provoke a response from Israel by attacking from behind the cover of Palestinian civilians, thus drawing Israeli strikes that kill those civilians, and then to have the casualties filmed by one of the world’s largest press contingents, with the understanding that the resulting outrage abroad will blunt Israel’s response. This is a ruthless strategy, and an effective one. 

Highly effective.

The AP staff in Gaza City would witness a rocket launch right beside their office, endangering reporters and other civilians nearby—and the AP wouldn’t report it, not even in AP articles about Israeli claims that Hamas was launching rockets from residential areas. (This happened.) Hamas fighters would burst into the AP’s Gaza bureau and threaten the staff—and the AP wouldn’t report it. (This also happened.) Cameramen waiting outside Shifa Hospital in Gaza City would film the arrival of civilian casualties and then, at a signal from an official, turn off their cameras when wounded and dead fighters came in, helping Hamas maintain the illusion that only civilians were dying.

Media manipulation.

He also writes on the recent events in Gaza:

The attempts to breach the Gaza fence, which Palestinians call the March of Return, began in March and have the stated goal of erasing the border as a step toward erasing Israel. A central organizer, the Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar, exhorted participants on camera in Arabic to “tear out the hearts” of Israelis. But on Monday the enterprise was rebranded as a protest against the embassy opening, with which it was meticulously timed to coincide. The split screen, and the idea that people were dying in Gaza because of Donald Trump, was what Hamas was looking for.

The press coverage on Monday was a major Hamas success in a war whose battlefield isn’t really Gaza, but the brains of foreign audiences.

Israeli soldiers facing Gaza have no good choices. They can warn people off with tear gas or rubber bullets, which are often inaccurate and ineffective, and if that doesn’t work, they can use live fire. Or they can hold their fire to spare lives and allow a breach, in which case thousands of people will surge into Israel, some of whom — the soldiers won’t know which — will be armed fighters. (On Wednesday a Hamas leader, Salah Bardawil, told a Hamas TV station that 50 of the dead were Hamas members. The militant group Islamic Jihad claimed three others.) If such a breach occurs, the death toll will be higher. And Hamas’s tactic, having proved itself, would likely be repeated by Israel’s enemies on its borders with Syria and Lebanon.

Useful to have this more balanced perspective.

Budget 2018

The booming economy has given Labour enough tax revenue to spend up large. Hundreds of initiatives have been funded. However some of the big ticket items are not what people may have expected. DHBs are only getting $549 million a year more and Labour had been insisting they were underfunded by $2 billion or more.

A few promises have been delayed such as cheaper GP visits, winter energy payments and Police numbers.

What is interesting is almost a total absence of media releases or initiatives on growing the economy, unless you count Shane Jones provincial grants or Winston giving more tax breaks for racing.

The key economic and fiscal data for 2019 is:

  • Economic growth of 3.3% forecast
  • Unemployment projected to be 4.4%
  • Inflation 1.4%
  • Core crown expenses 28.5% of GDP (well under the 30% cap)
  • OBEGAL surplus of $3.7 billion

The increase between 2017/18 expenditure (largely based on National’s 2017 Budget) and 2018/19 increase for key votes is:

  • Social Security and Welfare – up 3.2% in 2017/18 and up 10.9% in 2018/19
  • Health – up 5.9% in 2017/18 and up 5.2% in 2018/19
  • Education – up 4.9% in 2017/18 and up 5.2% in 2018/19
  • Law & Order – up 10.1% in 2017/18 and up 3.3% in 2018/19
  • Defence up 5.5% in 2017/18 and up 4.9% in 2018/19
  • Environmental protection up 47.8% in 2017/18 and down 17.8% in 2018/19
  • Core crown expenses up 7.0% in 2017/18 and up 6.1% in 2018/19

So the increases in health and education are actually much the same as in this current year. The big increase is in welfare.

Also of interest is Treasury are forecasting a drop of 900 tertiary students from 2018 to 2019. So they’re spending $2.8 billion on free tertiary fees and the projected impact is 900 fewer students. This must be the most wasteful policy ever.

Overall the Budget is reasonably solid in terms of fiscal indicators. But that was always going to be the case for the 2018 Budget. The more challenging ones are likely to be in 2019 or 2020 as the impact of public sector pay rounds will have flowed through by then.

One pleasing initiative is that the Government has taken up the Green Party policy to have an independent entity cost political party policies, so that voters know the likely cost of what is being promised.

The most ridiculous policy is Winston forcing the Government to make horse purchases tax deductible if the horse is good looking.

No I’m not making it up. That really is the policy. A horse can be deemed tax deductible “by virtue of its bloodlines, looks and racing potential”. IRD is going to need a new division that can assess how good looking a horse is, and hence whether it can be tax deductible.

332 victims

The Herald reports:

Michigan State University agreed to pay US$500 million (NZ$724m) to settle claims from more than 300 women and girls who said they were assaulted by sports doctor Larry Nassar in the worst sex-abuse case in sports history, officials announced Wednesday. …

The university and lawyers for 332 victims announced the deal after negotiating privately with the help of a mediator. Under the agreement, US$425 million would be paid to current claimants and US$75 million would be set aside for any future claims. Lawyers will also be compensated out of the US$500 million pool.

Michigan State was accused of ignoring or dismissing complaints about Nassar, some as far back as the 1990s. 

Sickening that he got away with this for over 25 years. His 140 years minimum jail sentence seems inadequate.

Kiwiblog tree tracker mentioned in Parliament

From Hansard:

Jenny Marcroft: How can members of the public and Kiwiblog readers track progress towards the 1 billion trees target?

Hon SHANE JONES: We have a new website. That website is being developed in association with one of New Zealand’s most successful businessmen, Sir Stephen Tindall. That is like a tree counter, and, as each tree counts, greater the popularity will be not only for the forest sector and for careers but also for the modest proponent, Matua Shane Jones!

Nice to see NZ First MPs noticing the tree counter.

At the time of writing this post, the Government needs to have planted 57,610,567 trees to be on schedule to make their target of one billion over ten years.

The actual number planted is five.

Why Trump won

Marc Thiessen writes:

If you want to understand why Donald Trump is president today (and why he could very well win a second term), look to the Democrats’ hysterical response to two of Trump’s major foreign policy achievements over the past week.

Last Thursday, the president traveled to Joint Base Andrews to greet three American hostages whose release he had secured from North Korea. Unlike his predecessor, Trump did it without sending the offending regime an unmarked plane loaded with hundreds of millions in hard currency. The return of these American captives should have been a moment of celebration and bipartisan unity.

So how did Democrats respond? By blasting Trump for the way he welcomed the U.S. hostages home. The pretext for their outrage was Trump’s comment thanking Kim Jong Un, who he said “really was excellent to these three incredible people” — by which Trump obviously meant releasing them. No matter. Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) took the Senate floor to attack Trump for his “troubling” remarks. “Kim Jong Un is a dictator” who “capriciously detained American citizens,” Schumer declared, channeling Captain Obvious, and warned that, by praising Kim, Trump “weakens American foreign policy and puts American citizens at risk around the world.”

Seriously? How do Democrats take a positive event such as the release of American hostages and turn it into an excuse to attack Trump? Apparently, Trump Derangement Syndrome is so debilitating that Democrats can’t bring themselves to say “Good job, Mr. President,” even when he brings our hostages home. 

A very fair point. There are times when the opposition party should praise th President. When Obama got Osama bin Laden, killed you didn’t have senior Republicans condemning him for it.

Before, Democrats complained that Trump was too belligerent toward Kim; now, they’re upset that he is too effusive. This is absurd. Trump is laying the groundwork for a high-stakes nuclear summit with Kim; of course the president is not going to publicly criticize him. People in Middle America listen to the Democrats’ reactions and think: Can Trump do nothing right in these people’s eyes?

Total opposition is never a great strategy.

The Human Rights Commission review

The review of the Human Rights Commission is pretty damning. I’ll summarise the findings below, but note for now that I think the issue may be structure as much as people.

Most organisation have part-time governors who sit strategy and policy and full-time staff who do the work.

The HRC has full-time Commissioners who lead the work program but also collectively are meant to govern the organisation. There is also a CEO and a Chief Commissioner. So very blurred accountability in my opinion.

The Commerce Commission is somewhat similar in that the Commissioners are full-time and both govern and manage.

I prefer the traditional models with a clear line between governance and management. Effectively the HRC has multiple bosses as each Commissioner has control over their area, plus a Chief Commission and a CEO.

Anyway the findings include:

  • some sexual harassment has occurred within the HRC, but it is not prevalent or endemic
  • staff members’ lack of information and trust in management to deal appropriately with their complaints is a potential impediment
  • there is a deep divide between some staff and some managers and a lack of trust in the management and the Commissioners among some staff
  • strategic leadership by the current Board is compromised by a lack of cooperation and communication between Commissioners and between Commissioners and the Chief Executive
  • the structure of the HRC, including the Commissioner/Chief Executive relationship, is problematic
  • All Commissioners bear responsibility for the often
    uncooperative and unprofessional dynamics of their relationships
  • the dysfunctional relationship between the Chief Executive and some of the Commissioners is a major reputational risk to the HRC
  • unresolved personal and professional conflicts between the Chief Executive and the Board or individual Commissioners be proactively addressed using, where necessary, external mediation or facilitation.
  • This structural issue is compounded by deep-seated personality clashes.
  • Former Commissioners told the Review of their experiences of dysfunction in the HRC Board going back many years while under the leadership of former Chief Commissioners.
  • However, the state of the relationship between the Chief Commissioner and the Race Relations Commissioner has deteriorated again. The October incident contributed to this deterioration. Presently, they are barely communicating with each other.
  • Commissioners appear to fall into one of two camps: those who more or less support the Chief Commissioner and those who more or less support the Race Relations Commissioner.
  • At a personal level, the relationships between the Commissioners and the Chief Executive range from trusting and collaborative to toxic.
  • Presently there is a complete breakdown in the formerly good relationship between the Chief Executive and one Commissioner.

Government reviews are normally diplomatically worded. This review is damning in the language used such as toxic, unprofessional etc.

Andrew Little has his work cut out for him with the HRC. The status quo is clearly untenable.

The eight Northcote candidates

Stuff reviews the eight Northcote candidates. My summary:

  • Stephen Berry (ACT) – says will raise the age of superannuation from 65 to 75
  • Dan Bidois (National) – scrap the fuel tax, trial a return of Onewa Rd’s T3 lane to T2, supports SkyPath
  • Tricia Cheel (Democrats) – anti vaccines, anti fluoride
  • Shanan Halbert (Labour) – wants SkyPath, light rail, affordable housing and more mental health funding
  • Rebekah Jaung (Greens) – wants climate change action
  • Kym Koloni (Independent) – scrap the Treaty
  • Jeff Lye (ALCP) – do I need to state the obvious!
  • Liam Walsh (NAP) – the new McGillycuddys

Neville Cooper dies

The Herald reports:

Gloriavale founder Hopeful Christian has died at the secluded religious community after a battle with cancer – leaving behind a trail of controversy, a sexual abuse charge, and questions over the future of the sect.

Christian, who was formerly known as Neville Cooper, died on Tuesday afternoon. He was aged in his 90s.

Cooper was not a good man. While there are some people at Gloriavale who live very happy and contented lives, Cooper has damaged a lot of people.

Hopefully Gloriavale can evolve into happier place, now he is gone.

2018 register of MPs Interests

The 2018 Register of MPs Interests has just been published. Here’s a few of the more interesting items:

Jacinda Ardern

APEC Gift: Samsung Galaxy J5 Prime handset and S3 Frontier watch (to be
donated) – National Organising Committee for ASEAN

Judith Collins

Tickets to Joseph Parker fight – Sky TV

Bill English

Black men’s satchel – Light Leathers Tannery

Chris Finlayson

An alcohol drinking flask in the form of what seems to be a sheep or a goat (quite difficult to identify the species) made of a form of dark or green-coloured
material, possibly bronze or iron – visiting delegation from the Supreme People’s Court of the People’s Republic of China

Jacqui Dean

Managed investment schemes: Bonus Bonds (Bonus Bonds!!!)

Shane Jones

Gifts: Qantas Chairman’s Lounge – Qantas (might explain the attacks on Air NZ!)

Melissa Lee

Hospitality and functions, ornamental gifts and congratulatory bouquet of flowers – Embassy of the Republic of Korea in New Zealand (not sure the flowers have to be declared!)

Trevor Mallard

The Moa Revival Project Advisory Board

David Seymour

Employment: Media Works Limited – celebrity dancer (sounds like a posh name for a stripper!)

Megan Woods

Woodsy’s Dreammaker Syndicate – lease of a race horse

 

 

Liberal problems

Gerard Alexander writes in the NYT:

Many liberals are very smart. But they are not as smart, or as persuasive, as they think.

And a backlash against liberals — a backlash that most liberals don’t seem to realize they’re causing — is going to get President Trump re-elected.

Trump defines himself by what he is against, as much as what he is for.

Within just a few years, many liberals went from starting to talk about microaggressions to suggesting that it is racist even to question whether microaggressions are that important. “Gender identity disorder” was considered a form of mental illness until recently, but today anyone hesitant about transgender women using the ladies’ room is labeled a bigot. Liberals denounce “cultural appropriation” without, in many cases, doing the work of persuading people that there is anything wrong with, say, a teenager not of Chinese descent wearing a Chinese-style dress to prom or eating at a burrito cart run by two non-Latino women.

No more playing cowboys and indians!

Pressing a political view from the Oscar stage, declaring a conservative campus speaker unacceptable, flatly categorizing huge segments of the country as misguided — these reveal a tremendous intellectual and moral self-confidence that smacks of superiority. It’s one thing to police your own language and a very different one to police other people’s. The former can set an example. The latter is domineering.

The bolded part is key.

Liberals can act as if they’re not so certain — and maybe actually not be so certain — that bigotry motivates people who disagree with them on issues like immigration. Without sacrificing their principles, liberals can come across as more respectful of others. Self-righteousness is rarely attractive, and even more rarely rewarded.

I’m liberal on many social issues, but I have profound respect for those with different views.

Liberals are trapped in a self-reinforcing cycle. When they use their positions in American culture to lecture, judge and disdain, they push more people into an opposing coalition that liberals are increasingly prone to think of as deplorable. That only validates their own worst prejudices about the other America.

Those prejudices will be validated even more if Mr. Trump wins re-election in 2020, especially if he wins a popular majority. That’s not impossible: The president’s current approval ratings are at 42 percent, up from just a few months ago.

Liberals are inadvertently making that outcome more likely. It’s not too late to stop.

Trump has had a fairly good 2018. He started it with a 37% approval rating and in early May was over 44%.

The solution to ignorance, poverty and misery.

Marian Tupy at Human Progress writes:

Today, Nicholas Kristof of the NYT wrote an op-ed entitled, “The Most Important Thing, and It’s Almost a Secret.” According to Kristof, “The most important thing going on in the world today is something we almost never cover: a rapid decline in poverty, illiteracy and disease.” 

Kristof makes a powerful case for the improving state of humanity and rightly bemoans the fact that the media all too often focus on war, hunger and despair. And that gives most readers the wrong impression that the world is falling apart. 

But, where did all the progress that Kristof talks about come from? 

The Homo sapiens has been on this earth for 200,000 years. For 99.9 percent of that time, we lived in ignorance, poverty and misery. What has changed? Reading the NYT, the reader is left with the impression that “good stuff,” like manna from heaven, suddenly was conjured up out of thin air. 

Not so. The key to the improvements in the lives of ordinary people over the last 200 years were industrialization and trade, which generated historically unprecedented rates of growth. And the importance of growth cannot be overemphasized. There is not a single example of a country emerging from widespread poverty without sustained economic growth. As University of Oxford Professor Paul Collier writes, “Growth is not a cure-all, but lack of growth is a kill-all.” 

So Governments that want to reverse industrialisation and put up trade barriers rail against the things that rescued humanity from poverty, illiteracy and disease.

“I don’t support paying good teachers more.”

Winston gets the title but not the power

As I predicted, Winston Peters will have the title of Acting Prime Minister, but no real power. He will just be the frontperson for the Government, which Grant Robertson will run behind the scenes.

The Herald reports on a document released by the PM, detailing Peters’ role during her leave. Some extracts:

“As Acting Prime Minister, you will exercise the functions and powers of the Prime Minister, in consultation with me where appropriate, particularly where matters of significant political, strategic or public interest, or national security arise,” the letter from Ardern to Peters says.

So Winston doesn’t get to decide anything.

“I will continue to receive Cabinet and Cabinet committee papers

This is key. Ardern will still be Prime Minister. She won’t be in Wellington but will be receiving all the papers she normally does and deciding which ones proceed.

Chairing cabinet and the cabinet committees usually chaired by me (Appointments and Honours Committee, Cabinet Business Committee and Cabinet Priorities Committee). Agendas for the meetings will be managed between my office and the Cabinet Office in the usual way;

This is also key. Her office will decide the agendas, not Peters. He just chairs the meetings, but has no role in deciding the agenda.

Peters, who is Foreign Minister, has not scheduled any overseas trips while Acting Prime Minister.

In the unlikely event of him having to take one, then Labour’s deputy leader, Kelvin Davis, would be Acting Prime Minister.

There’s no way that will be allowed to happen.

Review: Problems @ Circa

For the first time since Ben was born I got to go out to a play, having accepted tickets for the opening night of Problems at Circa.

Circa One has been transformed into a hall of red, appropriate for a play loosely inspired by the Death of Stalin.

Two massive doors dominate the stage and after the lights go off and back on you see two suited men standing alertly at guard.

Stephan, played by Andrew Paterson, is a true believer in the revolution and the system. The other guard Boris, played by Simon Leary, is less of a true believer and more focused on his golf game. They grate each other at the best of times, let alone at this time when the Great Leader has over slept and is late for his speech to the party congress. Waking him is risky, both in terms of his displeasure but also by the fact he sleeps with a loaded gun in case of counter revolutionaries.

Exacerbating the tension is they each have a different top official they are close to. Stephan is close to Madam Great Leader while Boris gets on well with General Kleb who oversees the security services.

Problems is a very physical almost slapstick comedy. It aims to highlight the sense of paranoia and ridiculousness in a regime where there is no truth, and people who know too much get deleted.

The two actors are vigorous and produce many comic moments. It will appeal to people who like easy laughs.

For me though it didn’t meet its potential in terms of black humour. The overt physicality got somewhat in the way of the Orwellian state which is such a contradiction.

In a technical sense the play was well done – the light and sound effects were dramatic and there was a sense of tension as the time past the scheduled wake up kept getting longer. It was a fun production, but it didn’t quite connect on the emotional level.

Rating: ***1/2

Greens spin DOC funding as significant

Eugenie Sage released:

Possums, rats and stoats are the big losers in Budget 2018 and our forests, birds and other wildlife the winners, Conservation Minister Eugenie Sage announced today.

 “We need to invest in comprehensive predator control in order to save special wildlife like kiwi. We have a biodiversity crisis, where 82 per cent of native birds are threatened with or at risk of extinction,” says Eugenie Sage.

 An extra $81.3 million in operating funds for predator control over four years is part of a major boost in conservation funding in Budget 2018.

Maybe there is more to come but this is pretty small stuff for a party that said it would double DOC funding.

$80 million over four years is basically $8 million more per year cumulative. The cumulative impact is:

  • Year 1: $8 million
  • Year 2: $16 million
  • Year 3: $24 million
  • Year 4: $32 million

Now how much did Vote Conservation increase last year? It increased $36 million. So the Greens big triumph is a funding boost that is less than one quarter of what National did last Budget.

Vote Conservation is $467 million so this funding increase is a 1.7% annual increase. Wow go Greens. That’s like really close to double eh.

Now maybe there are more funding increases to be announced. But if this is it, the Greens have shown us how powerless they are compared to Winston. He gets a 30% increase for diplomacy and they get 1.7% for conservation!

Happy 70th birthday Israel

Israel, as a modern state, was founded on the 14th of May 1948 – 70 years ago. The next day they were attacked by Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Syria. It took 13 months for Israel to win the War of Independence.

In 1950 they enacted the Law of Return granting automatic citizenship to anyone of Jewish matrilineal descent. This is later extended to spouses, children and grandchildren of Jews. Under this law, I could move to Israel and become a citizen.

In 70 years, Israel has become one of the world’s leading scientific and technological companies. 45 of their top inventions are listed here.

12 Israelis have won Nobel Prizes – one literature, three peace, two economics, six chemistry. (Note a further 155 Jews in other countries have won a Nobel Prize, comprising 22% of all nobel prizes since 1901 despite being just 0.25% of the world’s population).

A few of their inventions are:

  • cellphones
  • Intel chips
  • ICQ
  • Polio vaccine
  • antivirus software
  • ingestible video cameras for cancer detection
  • USB flash drives

US wants Kiwis to pay more for drugs

Stuff reports:

Accusing other countries of “free-loading”, US President Donald Trump has announced plans to make countries like New Zealand pay more for drugs.

Speaking at the White House this weekend, Trump accused foreign countries of extorting  “unreasonably low prices from US drug makers” and forcing Americans to pay more to subsidise the research and development costs. “America will not be cheated by foreign countries.” 

Trump had directed his trade representative Bob Lighthizer to “make fixing this injustice a top priority with every trading partner” by negotiating with other countries to pay more.

New Zealand, like the UK and Australia, has a national agency that negotiates with pharmaceutical companies to bulk-buy drugs. That agency, Pharmac, has successfully managed down prices by playing one drug company off against another.

Long may that continue.

But drug pricing is very complex. The reality often is that the second and subsequent new drug may costs less than 10 cents to manufacture but the first new drug costs over $1 billion in research, development and testing.

So what is the fair price for a new drug?

Auckland University professor of law Jane Kelsey said if the US re-entered the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) deal it would demand extensions on patent periods as it was currently doing in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada. 

She said the US was already demanding 12 years of exclusivity for biologic medicines, like Keytruda, up from five years in the TPPA.

And that would be a price too high to pay. Plus the US has shown it will ignore aspects of trade deals it finds inconvenient so a trade deal with the US at the moment looks far too risky.

Electoral Commission wrong on this one

Stuff reports:

The Electoral Commission is advocating for the Minister of Justice to allow Māori to switch freely between the Māori and General Rolls.

At last year’s election year 19,000 people tried to switch between the two, and were frustrated to find out it’s only once every five or six years they can do it.

The reason it is every five years is because the boundaries are set every five years. If you allow people to swap more frequently you could well end up with electorates of significantly different populations. At present the law requires them to be no more than 5% different from the mean electoral population.

Such a change will incentivise a form of gerrymandering. If for example you have a close race in say Northland, then parties would campaign for people to swap from the Maori roll to the general roll just before the election.

This would greatly advantage those of Maori descent who can decide which roll to go on. It goes against all voters being equal.

If you are not of Maori descent, you can’t enrol in a more marginal or competitive electorate unless you are willing to actually move house (which of course no one is). The decision on which roll you enrol on should not be one made just before an election.