Today we remember the:

• 229 New Zealanders who died in the Boer War (1899 – 1902)
• 16,697 who died in WWI
• 11,625 who died in WWII
• 15 who died in Malaya (1949 – 1966)
• 33 who died in the Korean War (1950 – 1953)
• 37 who died in the Vietnam War (1964 – 1972)
• Five who died in Afghanistan (2001 – 2013)
• Four who died in East Timor (1999 – 2006)

We shall not forget them.

LGNZ has responded to my post on Maori wards. Their response is below:

1. LGNZ has no view on whether councils should create Maori wards.  Our position is that that matter should be a decision for each council to make in consultation with its community including iwi;
2. LGNZ does think that the rule applying to the creation of wards, community boards etc should be aligned and placed on a level playing field.  Only the creation of Maori wards is subject to a referendum possibility.  Interestingly, it is not widely understood that the existing poll provisions can also be used to override a council’s decision not to establish Maori wards or constituencies.  That is, the provision could just as easily be held to establish wards against the wishes of a council as it can to dis-establish them (see s.19ZB of the Local Electoral Act 2001);
3. There are two ways to get alignment.  First Maori wards could be treated similarly to other wards etc.  This would entail a council decision with the checks and balances of Local Government Commission oversight.  As councils are elected to make decisions this would be the preference of most.   LGC oversight is buttressed by the democratic accountability of elected members every three years at the triennial elections.  The other approach would be to extend the referendum option to the creation of all types of wards and community boards.  This also would achieve the alignment objective but is likely to see a lot more referenda (which some may prefer as it is more of a direct democracy model e.g. Switzerland, than a representative democracy model).  Obviously the costs of this option would be higher but both options achieve the desired alignment of process.  The point we are making is that the rules surrounding Maori wards are anomalous relative to the rules for creating all other representative arrangements;
4. On consultation – LGNZ included this matter in our Election Manifesto issued last July and was the focus of extensive discussion at our July Conference.  It was sent to all political parties and each was asked to address the matters it contained when they gave their respective speeches to our conference (which they did to varying degrees ranging from not at all to systematic consideration). The preparation and sign-off of that manifesto was subject to extensive discussion within our governance processes and went through consideration by our Governance and Strategy Advisory Group and was formally adopted by the National Council of LGNZ before it was issued.  After approval by National Council, the manifesto was sent to all mayors, chairs and chief executives on 27 June 2017 well before the LGNZ Conference in the latter part of July (where it was released formally). Additionally, LGNZ made a submission to the Justice and Electoral Select Committee which covered, inter alia, the petition of Andrew Judd calling for the change to the rules concerning the establishment of Maori Wards.  That submission was approved by LGNZ governance in July 2017 (reflecting the Manifesto policy) and was referred to in a Policy Brief sent to the LGNZ membership on 20 July 2017 (I can send you a copy if you would like).  I accept that if a person had not paid attention to that work and communications activity at the time then they could well be under the impression that the policy is new.  However as a matter of fact they would be wrong.  The issue has come to the fore again because several councils now are facing referenda following decisions to introduce a Maori ward;

I disagree with the view that Maori wards should be purely a decision for Councils and the Local Government Commission, as with other wards.

The decision to establish a Maori ward is a hugely significant decision. It is saying we want to divide our Council and voters by ethnicity. This is very different to merely deciding if you have 12 or 14 wards and where the boundaries are.

Hence I think such a significant decision should rest with the voters.

Very sad to read about the deadly attack in Toronto by Alek Minassian who drove a rental van into a crowded sidewalk slaughtering 10 people and injuring 15 more.

My thoughts are with everyone in Canada. It is horrifying to have to put up with the fear that even walking along a sidewalk may no longer be safe.

There is no motive known for the attack yet.

The Taxpayers Union reveals:

Taxpayer-funded health activists ignored advice from the Ministry of Health, Auckland Council, and Auckland Transport, to bully a company into dropping a promotion to raise money for Youthline, reveals the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.

Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says, “Healthy Auckland Together (HAT), a coalition of public agencies and taxpayer-funded health groups, used taxpayer money to try and shut down a Youthline fundraiser because they objected to a Coca-cola billboard.”

“HAT complained to the Advertising Standards Authority about a Coca-cola bus stop billboard because it was 550m away from a school. This particular billboard encouraged people to text a number to donate to Youthline.”

These are the same zealots who would rather families of kids with cancer have nowhere to stay, rather than allow companies they disapprove of to advertise.

This map by Stephen Davis shows how basically all of Auckland is within 800 metres of a school. So the zealots are basically saying they don’t want any advertising at all.

“You would think that a public health group would be concerned about youth mental health, but in this case, HAT is blocking vital Youthline revenue for the sake of nannyism and anti-capitalism.”

“This organisation is turning into a group of zealots. They ignored advice from their own partner organisations Auckland Council, the Ministry of Health, and Auckland Transport.”

Correspondence obtained under the OIA reveals all three had explicitly asked to be left off the ASA complaint, with the latter two citing a lack of evidence for making a complaint. The correspondence can be viewed here: https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/advice_to_hat

They are so obsessed with companies they hate, that trumps the public good.

The West Australian reports:

Australia’s biggest resources project — the Gorgon gas plant off the Pilbara — will deliver a much-needed boost to the WA economy after oil giant Chevron gave the go-ahead for the $5.1 billion second stage of the project.

Chevron will today end a guessing game about when it would pull the trigger on stage two by announcing funding to ensure the $69 billion project can continue to produce its targeted 15.6 million tonnes of LNG a year.

Gorgon is one of the world’s biggest, costliest and most complicated energy projects.

About 10,000 workers were needed to build the sub-sea infrastructure and massive processing facility on the environmentally sensitive Barrow Island, 140km west of Karratha.

So Western Australia not deciding to import their energy supply from overseas.

No Right Turn blogs:

For a while I’ve been posting about Ministerial weekly briefings, encouraging people to OIA them as a resource for finding out what the government is doing. There’s been some pushback from Labour over this, and I have a complaint in with the Ombudsman over this. But Labour’s David Parker has decided to do the right thing, and proactively release them all after three months

That’s a good move by Parker and I hope other Ministers follow suit.

Stuff reports:

It’s hard to imagine sea level rising and creeping over city streets, but if you live in Wellington you don’t have to.

The city council has developed a virtual reality simulator, allowing users to travel anywhere in the city, stand on the street, and see the impact of the rising sea levels.

You can stand in the shadow of Te Papa and watch as the whole area is swallowed by the ocean.

Or travel along Oriental Parade and watch the  beach get washed away with only a 1-metre rise.

At six metres – the absolute worst-case scenario – you can watch the waters creep to the steps of the Beehive or flood the town of Makara.

Sea levels are rising and will continue to rise. But having ratepayer money spent on a simulator which shows a six metre rise is just scare mongering.

The rise over the last 100 years has been 18 cms. In the last 25 years it has been around 3.2 mms a year which would be 32 cms over 100 years, or one foot. Not 20 feet!

Now even if you allow for more dramatic increases in future, there is no scenario that is six metres. MFE modeled four scenarios. The three main scenarios had a rise by 2100 ranging from 45 cms to 80 cms. The extreme worst case scenario is a 1 metre rise.

Yet the WCC is spending ratepayer money showing a six metre rise.

Stuff reports:

The driver of a ute involved in a triple fatal crash near Thames was on bail for methamphetamine offences and had a driving history of speed and crashes.

It was understood 20-year-old Haydn David Clark crossed the centre line crashing head-on into another ute on Thursday night, killing Hauraki couple Ian James Fielder, 66,  and Jocelyn Anne Fielder, 64.

Haydn Clark had absconded from his bail address and was in breach of his 24-hour curfew at the time of the crash, a source said.

As you read this sad story, reflect that Andrew Little has said that our bail laws are too tough and it should be easier for people to get bail, so less people are in remand prisons.

First time offenders should of course get bail for all but the most serious offences such as murder.

But if someone has a long history of criminal offending, then bail should be more difficult to get.

The Herald reports:

One of the sewage leaks that caused alarm about the poor condition of Auckland’s biggest hospital was a stain on the ground that was cleaned up with water. …

Manukau District Health Board said reports about the extent of the two sewage leaks in the Scott Building last year were not correct, and they were not ongoing issues.

“We can confirm that despite the dramatic language that has been used around sewage issues at Middlemore Hospital, the sewage leaks were small.”

One was so small it was cleaned up with water.

“There was no sewage spilling into the building, just some staining on the ground within the soil stack duct. To clean it up, engineering had to mix water on it, so the quantity was less than a bucket,” the DHB said in a statement.

A vastly different picture to what Government spin doctors had us believing.

Matthew Hooton has asked Kiwiblog to publish this:

APOLOGY TO HON STEVEN JOYCE

On 2 March 2018 a column I wrote was published in the print edition of the NBR and on the NBR’s website.   It was titled: “Joyce sacking first test of Bridges’ leadership”. 

This article could reasonably be understood to suggest that the Hon Steven Joyce had engaged in unethical, dishonest and/or corrupt behaviour during his tenure as a Minister in the previous National Government.

Nothing in the column was intended to convey such suggestions, which would be untrue. I apologise to Mr Joyce for any harm caused as a consequence. 

Matthew Hooton

Energy Minister says no plans, work or announcements have been made around banning coal but Climate Change Minister has signed NZ up to a pact to do exactly that by 2030. https://t.co/cp3xwAkJPT

— Jo Moir (@jo_moir) April 22, 2018

A Government where the two major Ministers in the area of energy don’t even appear to be talking to each other.

A guest post from Mark Webster of New Endeavour Resources (N.Z) Ltd:

The recent decision by the New Zealand government to stop issuing Permits for offshore oil & gas exploration is misguided and counter-productive.  It is highly likely that New Zealand has sufficient natural gas to support an LNG industry.  Exporting gas to countries that currently utilise coal would have a real, material impact on global emissions, and be a game changer to the NZ economy, enabling NZ to fund the social, environmental, infrastructure, and regional development programmes that the government has prioritised.  The current strategy will have minimal, and probably negative, impact on emissions, while removing a valuable source of revenue, with no substitute identified.

I am a New Zealander and a petroleum geologist.  I started my career as a graduate in Petrocorp and left 13 years later as Chief Geologist. I have worked in the industry for 34 years, in New Zealand and overseas (in Australia, Canada, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia). I established a company (NER) with two experienced Australian colleagues, specifically to look for gas reserves in Taranaki.  We see huge potential here and have been working hard to develop opportunities, attract investors to NZ, and unlock this resource.  I don’t believe anyone would define us as Big Oil; I drive a 2004 Toyota Echo.

Like most people in the NZ oil & gas industry, I also care about clean air, clean water, and a fair society, and am grateful daily that I am lucky enough to live on these lightly populated and isolated islands. I voted Labour in the last election because, like many others, I was concerned at the growing inequity in NZ, the need for communities to have to provide food and clothing for school kids, the woeful salaries we pay teachers, nurses and basically anyone who isn’t in a position to yield financial clout. I don’t like seeing our youngest and brightest burdened by debt when they successfully complete training or education, knowing home ownership is moving out of their reach and they will be responsible for a rapidly increasing aged population requiring care. I liked Labour’s promises to boost the regions, so Auckland doesn’t become the hippo sitting at one end of the rowboat.

My argument is very simple. New Zealand’s hydrocarbon resource is predominantly gas (70% of reserves found to date). Natural gas emits approximately 50% less Greenhouse gas than coal, and 20% less than oil. We believe NZ is fortunate enough to have sufficient reserves (up to 30 Trillion cubic feet, or 6 more Maui-sized Fields) to develop an LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) export industry.  

If 9 Tcf (less than a third of the resource) was exported as LNG to Asia, and displaced coal powered generation (something the government can control), the result would be a reduction of CO2 emissions of 48 million tonnes per year over 30 years. This represents 60% of New Zealand’s total 1990 emissions. Our target under the Paris accord is 11%, so New Zealand could rightly claim to be making a tangible, rather than token, contribution to this global initiative.

The following scenario illustrates the potential impact of an LNG industry. Numbers are indicative and based on the Wheatstone LNG project operated in Australia by Chevron, but upscaled from gas reserves of 4.5 Tcf to 9 Tcf.

• An LNG development comprising 4 trains, producing approximately 18 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) combined over a 30 year lifetime;
• Increased activity and economic prosperity in Taranaki;
• An extension of the Maui pipeline from Huntly to Northland;
• An LNG export facility in Northland, generating
  • 7,000 jobs during construction, 30,000 jobs over the project lifetime
  • $100 Billion in Crown revenues over 30 years
  • Increase in GDP of $360 Billion over 30 years
  • $40 Billion added to the regional economies in local contracts, services etc
  • Reduction in global GHG emissions by 48 MTPA
• A sovereign wealth fund ensuring a good standard of living for those who follow;
• Investment in research into existing and new technologies to further reduce emissions from the resource, including carbon capture & storage, hydrogen fuel, LNG transport fuels etc;
• High value education and training opportunities for the young;
• Salaries for nurses, teachers etc that better reflect their value;
• Money to repair and maintain schools and hospitals;
• Money to fund DoC in both conservation programmes and to cope with the ever- increasing pressure imposed by tourism;
• A regulatory environment that enforces compliance with safety and environmental standards;
• An end to childhood poverty in NZ.

James Shaws’ argument in Parliament seemed to be that because renewables are attracting a lot (colossal I think was the word) of investment elsewhere in the world, we should also invest a lot of capital paying ourselves to build more renewable generation to sell electricity to ourselves. Seems to be an economic model similar to the Auckland property market, and that’s worked well for the next generation. It’s going to take a lot of electricity just to replace the energy currently provided by oil & gas, before we even think of how to power replacement (as yet unidentified) green industries and the fleet of electric vehicles.  Say goodbye to those Central Otago landscapes as windfarms are built under urgency.

James also spoke of the declining market for fossil fuels.  This is at odds with the forecast published by Shell last week which states the global demand for natural gas is expected to grow at an average of 2% per year (twice the rate of total energy demand) and LNG by 4% per year. An article in Oilprice.com on 31 March 2018  stated “China’s increased air pollution fight and its impact on the country’s gas demand will revolutionize LNG markets in the Asia-Pacific region, creating new opportunities for LNG producers from Australia, the U.S., Russia….In November the IEA predicted China’s natural gas demand would increase from 210 Bcm (billion cubic metres) in 2016 to 400 Bcm by 2040 as the country shifts its emphasis to cleaner and more efficient sources of energy”.  New Zealand could be a significant producer for this market.

New Zealand is well ahead in the renewables game (thanks in no small part to the efforts of engineers, builders, scientists, lawyers and administrators who, I am guessing given the demographics of the time, would largely be represented by the group now dismissed as old white men by the Green Party), so it seems the only actual benefit from the current strategy is that NZ gets to adopt a pious self-righteous smugness and considerable additional debt to pass on to future generations.

NZ will continue to need oil and gas for several more decades. We can use our own, and control the safety and environmental standards, or we can spend money importing energy, and have little or no control over standards. The decision is not as simple as the options provided by Greenpeace in their typically insightful analysis: should we ban all fossil fuels (good) or continue oil and gas exploration (bad).

The ultimate irony, however, is having a state-controlled renewables electricity generator using a comedian on tv ads to tell us we should emulate Norway, a country with an enviable standard of living, and a higher uptake on electric vehicles……all built on a strong oil and gas industry.  That’s what we want, wait, no we don’t, but yes, we do, can we just have the good bits?

To claim the existing offshore Permits will run their course and potentially be converted to Mining Permits is misleading; companies will need to apply for a Mining Permit in the event of a discovery, from a government that has broadcast their position on oil and gas production.  Mining Permits will either also no longer be awarded offshore, or each application will be declined. No company is going to invest in exploration in existing Permits with that uncertainty now hanging over them. There will be immediate cutbacks and job losses. I expect offshore Operators are already queuing outside MBIE to retract drilling (and financial) commitments that have been made. That will flow on to suppliers, contractors etc etc.

NZ is in the unique and fortunate position of already having a high proportion of renewables generation, and a gas resource which, if managed responsibly, can be of huge economic and social benefit without compromising the government’s Climate Change goals.

The question I have for the coalition leaders is “do you want to reduce global emissions, or do you want to stop oil and gas exploration?” because they are different objectives with different strategies and different outcomes.  The transition represents a huge opportunity for NZ to show some true leadership.

At the very least, have a moratorium on offshore blocks offers for 2018, work with industry to validate the resource potential, and review existing and emerging technologies for the use of the resource (and confirm the emissions associated with each scenario).

We can’t export sunshine and good intentions. 

I really regret wasting that vote now…

UN Watch reports:

Despite accusations that it perpetrated yet another deadly chemical weapons attack on Saturday, Syria will next month chair the United Nations disarmament forum that produced the treaty banning chemical weapons, sparking calls by an independent monitoring group for the U.S., the EU, and UN chief Antonio Guterres to strongly protest, and for their ambassadors to walk out of the conference during the four weeks of the Syrian presidency. 

The 65-nation Conference on Disarmament, based in Geneva, has also negotiated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, considered the cornerstone of nuclear disarmament efforts, as well as the convention against biological weapons.

“Having the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad preside over global chemical and nuclear weapons disarmament will be like putting a serial rapist in charge of a women’s shelter,” said Hillel Neuer, executive director of United Nations Watch, the Geneva based non-governmental organization. The activist group announced that it intends to hold protest events outside the UN hall featuring Syrian victims of their government’s chemical weapons attacks.

It’s like a sick joke.

Stuff reports:

Veteran Auckland activist Penny Bright has a message for anyone hoping to buy her house: “Forget it.”

Last month the High Court ruled that her Kingsland home — bought by Bright nearly 30 years ago — would be sold by tender on April 24 to recover more than $34,000 of unpaid council rates and penalties dating back a decade.

Bright has refused to pay the rates in protest at various transgressions she alleges against the council — all of which have been rejected by the council and courts. 

She told the Barfoot and Thompson real estate agent charged with the sale that no potential buyers would be allowed inside to view the property.

Nevertheless Stuff understands that at least one offer had been made on the house, which has been listed for sale by Tender on Trademe for exactly one month.

Rather silly as there is no way the house won’t sell for enough to cover the $34,000 owed to the Council. So the person who will miss out is Bright herself if the house goes for say $100,000 less than it might have got.

The Herald editorial:

It is always good to see a constructive proposal from a political party in opposition. With the Government still feeling its way with inquiries and the like, and National so recently in office, former ministers must have plenty of suitable subjects to advance. “Suitable” means not contentious between the parties. A bill proposed by former Education Minister Niki Kaye surely is one.

It would put more education officers into youth courts where a pilot programme under the previous Government found they appeared to reduced the rate of re-offending by juveniles who ought to be in school. …

It stands to reason that if a 14- to 16-year-old can be steered back to school, their behaviour and life prospects will improve. But steering a youth back to school is not just a matter of having an education officer in court for a family conference. Kaye’s bill would require the Education Ministry to provide whatever staff and finance is required to carry out any decisions made about an offender’s education.

 With 23 youth courts around the country, the task could cost more than the $2.5 million annually that she estimates. But there seems no reason apart from cost for the Government not to take up this idea and make it happen.

Hopefully the Government will adopt it, so it doesn’t need to reply on luck of the ballot.

Brian Fallow writes at the Herald:

This policy is self-righteous nimbyism, environmentally pointless, economically costly and politically counter-productive to the Government’s own agenda on climate change.

What matters for the climate is how much fossil carbon is consumed, not where it is produced.

This is critical. The Government’s ban will increase carbon emissions, not reduce them.

The opportunity cost of this ban — the jobs, royalties and export revenues forgone — is unknown and unlikely ever to be known given the chilling effect it will have on exploration of the existing permit areas.

What we do know is that New Zealand struggles to earn its living as a trading nation. Right now we are enjoying the best terms of trade on record, the most favourable mix of export and import prices ever.

But we still run a $3 billion trade deficit, underpinned by a net $4.5b deficit in petroleum and petroleum products. It contributes to an overall external deficit of $7.7b in 2017, which has to be financed by running up debt, or selling off assets, to the rest of the world.

So we will import even more from overseas, increasing the trade deficit.

Stuff reports:

The Commonwealth has confirmed that Prince Charles will be the next leader of the organisation of Britain and its former colonies once he succeeds his mother Queen Elizabeth II on the throne.

Commonwealth leaders meeting in London said in a statement that the next head of the organisation “shall be His Royal Highness Prince Charles, The Prince of Wales.”

This is no surprise. It is the only logical decision.

For NZ it means that even if we become a republic, we will still have a link to the British Royal Family through the Commonwealth.

NewstalkZB reports:

Karla Cardno’s stepfather Mark Middleton will not be deported after Associate Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi stepped in.

Middleton received the news this morning that he had been granted a permanent resident’s visa when his lawyer Keith Jefferies called him.

The stepfather of murdered schoolgirl Karla Cardno had been ordered to leave New Zealand after overstaying for more than 30 years.

Middleton told the Herald he and his family were relieved.

“I’ve just heard from my lawyer that the minister has overturned the decision by Immigration and that I’ve been granted a visa and I’ve just got to go through the motions and fill out the necessary paperwork,” he said.

“I think the minister has behaved very ethically.”

This is exactly the sort of situation where the Minister should use his discretion, so pleased to see Kris Faafoi do so.

Middleton has lived here since he was four, and it seems his only brush with the law was threatening to kill the monster who raped, tortured and murdered his step daughter. His family have suffered enough.

Patrick Gower writes:

Smoking killed my Mum.

She died of lung cancer.

She was 56 years old and it was a total waste of a good life. There is so much she has missed out on.

That is why there is nobody in New Zealand who wants smoking banned more than me.

56 is so terribly young. And it is a reminder why we do want to have as few people smoking as possible.

I virtually never talk about my views on smoking privately or publicly, and until now I have kept my views to myself because I haven’t wanted to force them in other people.

But on The AM Show this morning they were talking about stopping smoking, and in the ad break before I came on to the paneI I decided the time was right.

I was inspired after seeing Dr Hayden McRobbie from Counties Manukau DHB’s Stop Smoking programme talking about vaping earlier on the show.

He came in from the frontline and gave the most simple explanation as to how we can reduce smoking in this country, which is to let vaping come in.

Dr McRobbie says vaping helps people give up, and is better for your health.

Vaping therefore is the big solution for the people who are addicted and can’t stop, or who can’t afford smoking but want to give up. It would also stop a black market if a ban on smoking comes in.

Barry Soper writes:

You could be forgiven for thinking it takes a village to run this Government. At the end of it, it’ll have to be the most well-informed, risk-averse administration of all time.

Almost daily reviews, inquiries and committees are announced to inform the ministers of how this should be done and how that should be avoided.

This is what happens when you have no real policy.

Of course France knows all about spies so Macron would no doubt understand why the watchdog of our spooks has appointed a so-called Security Reference Group of 11 to keep her up to scratch with whether she’s getting things right.

It’s a couple of members of the group who’ve brought the trilby and trenchcoat conspirators out of the closet. Last week they announced a $2 million investigation into Nicky Hagar’s Hit and Run book on an SAS raid in Afghanistan, this week they’ve appointed him to give the Inspector-General of the spies Cheryl Gwyn advice on whether she’s heading in the right direction.

Hagar’s on record as saying the Security Intelligence Service should be disbanded, the days of reds under the bed are long gone.

Yes we have appointed someone who thinks the SIS should be disbanded, to advise on oversight of it. There is a difference between appointing critics who want the SIS to do a better job of how it operates, and appointing someone who thinks they should not exist.

And another on the spy’s group has clashed swords in the past with Gwyn herself when she was the Deputy Solicitor-General. Civil liberties lawyer Deborah Manning defended the Algerian refugee Ahmed Zaoui when he was being pursued by the last Labour Government over unsubstantiated terrorism allegations made by the SIS.

They were not unsubstantiated. He had four convictions in three different countries for terrorism related offences. That is the opposite of unsubstantiated.

Also Manning is a former senior staffer in the Labour Leader’s office. Hardly inspires confidence about political neutrality.

I think Gwyn has been an excellent Inspector-General but I think her unilateral decision to establish a reference group was a bad call.