Crampton on the amazing employment figures of the last two decades

Eric Crampton writes:

In 1995, there were 700,000 fewer working-aged people in New Zealand than there are in 2017. But there are over 5,000 fewer people reporting being unemployed in 2017.

Or compare it to the overheated mid-2000s. When unemployment was at its lowest ebb, in 2008, there were just under 80,000 unemployed people, 624,000 not in the labour force, and a working-age population of just under 2.8 million.

The 2017 figures have just over 280,000 more working-aged people than 2009 but a total labour force that’s almost 300,000 people larger: 18,600 fewer people report not being in the labour force. 248,000 more people in employment. There are just under 51,000 more people reporting being unemployed now than there were then, but the labour force participation rate is 2.6 percentage points higher and the employment rate is 1.3 percentage points higher.

The employment rate among people aged 15-64 is 76.1%. There is no year, going back to 1987, that had it that high. The labour force participation rate for that age group is 80.3% – also the highest in the data going back 30 years. Only minor caveat is that hours worked are growing less quickly, although that wouldn’t be surprising either if some shifting into the labour force are picking up part-time rather than full-time work.

We should be shouting from the rooftops about how superbly the New Zealand economy has grown to match the growth in those wanting to be employed here. Whatever your concerns about immigration, dey terk yer jerb shouldn’t be one of them.

The graph Eric has blogged is worth looking at, as it is very powerful. It basically shows that we’ve managed to increase the working age population by 700,000 and have almost no increase in the numbers not in the labour force or unemployed.

This is a tribute not to any Government, but to the NZ economy. It shows that we have a flexible economy that is providing jobs for those who want them.

President Macron

Stuff reports:

Emmanuel Macron has been elected the president of France, defeating Marine Le Pen, a far-right nationalist who threatened to take France out of the European Union.

The centrist’s emphatic victory, which also smashed the dominance of France’s mainstream parties, will bring huge relief to European allies who had feared another populist upheaval to follow Britain’s vote to quit the EU and Donald Trump’s election as US president.

Five projections, issued within minutes of polling stations closing at 6am on Monday (NZT), showed Macron beating Le Pen by around 65 per cent to 35 – a gap wider than the 20 or so percentage points that pre-election surveys had pointed to.

This is a good outcome from France economically. While not as reformist as Fillon, Macron’s economic policies are miles better than the protectionist and socialist rhetoric of Le Pen.

Macron’s immediate challenge will be to secure a majority in next month’s parliamentary election for En Marche! (Onwards!), his political movement that is barely a year old, in order to implement his programme.

That is far less certain but not impossible. The last poll had EM projected to win 249 to 286 seats. The Republicans 200 – 210 and the Socialists just 28 to 43.

Shortly after the first projections were published, Le Pen, 48, said she had congratulated Macron. But she defiantly claimed the mantle of France’s main opposition in calling on “all patriots to join us” in constituting a “new political force”, which she said would be the main opposition to the new government.

Her deputy said this new force would not be called “National Front”.

This will be interesting. May her attempt to bury the last ties to her (repulsive) father.

When he moves into the Elysee Palace after his inauguration next weekend, Macron will become the eighth – and youngest – president of France’s Fifth Republic.

He plans to blend a big reduction in public spending and a relaxation of labour laws with greater investment in training.

I predict some major strikes!

Did you know nuclear attacks are common?

Stop Press reports:

The Greens want to show they’re no longer some fringe party on the side – they’re ready to lead the country.

“We spent time on understanding more about potential voters and working with the party to help them articulate their readiness to be in Government,” Dean says.  

She says it was important to emphasise that the ideals they stand for are unique in an increasingly protectionist era of politics, where fear, nuclear attacks and racism are all too common.

Did you know nuclear attacks are common? Amazing. The Government must be covering them up.

The top 10 schools in the US

Coyoteblog writes:

Five of the nation’s top 10 high schools are in Arizona — and they’re all branches of the same charter school.

According to U.S. News and World Report, Basis Scottsdale is the nation’s top-performing high school, followed by Basis Tucson North and Basis Oro Valley. Basis Peoria and Basis Chandler were ranked fifth and seventh, respectively.

So obviously they have a winning formula. Maybe it is they get lots of extra funding?

Arizona was one of the earliest adopters of charter schools in 1994, and it continues to be at the forefront of school choice. However, the state has some of the lowest school funding and teacher pay in the U.S.

Nope. Not that.

Hillary’s reasons for why she lost

Ecological footprints

An interesting table from Priceonomics who explain:

Countries that use the most resources typically have the highest GDP, while countries with low GDPs generally use the least resources. The correlation between the two is strong and positivefootprint increases as GDP increases. We fit a linear regression from GDP to footprint. It has an r-squared value of .843–GDP explains the vast majority of the variation in ecological footprint.

With GDP explaining so much of how much a country consumes, we wanted to see how the 50 largest economies performed. Positive numbers indicate an ecological surplus. People in those countries consume less than nature replenishes. Negative numbers show a deficit, where people consume more than their land can support.

So NZ is ranked 5th highest for our environmental footprint per capita.

Tories surge in local elections

The Guardian reports:

Theresa May’s Conservatives gained more than 550 council seats and swept to shock victories in mayoralty contests in the West Midlands and Tees Valley in results that placed her party on track to secure a thumping majority in the general election.

The prime minister insisted she was not taking “anything for granted” but the Tories enjoyed a stunning day that was matched by a dramatic decline for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party, which lost more than 300 seats.

The results forced Labour to hand over control of a series of English councils including Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Northumberland, while in Scotland the party lost its grip on Glasgow for the first time in 40 years.

Takes a lot to lose Glasgow. The full results are:

  • Conservatives +558
  • Labour -320
  • Others – 164
  • UKIP -114
  • Lib Dems -37
  • SNP +31
  • Plaid Cymru +26

 

Murphy on Little

Tim Murphy writes:

Little has had a mixed past month – escaping a risky defamation verdict but erring by implying a Little government would substantially cut immigrant numbers by more than seems possible.

His wooing of the volatile Jackson, who left a radio job that he proudly said paid more for three hours a day than an MP could earn, was always risky. On Monday, Jackson proved that, with a petulance at being ranked No 21 on the Labour list of 74 – which today has Little talking all about Jackson, not the broader list. …

The L word problem – his image and communication issue – is one that Labour’s MPs, candidates, and volunteers will strike on the doorsteps. 

His deputy Jacinda Ardern hit it at a Wintec Press Club lunch last Friday. In what might have been a chummy question and answer session, she was grilled repeatedly on the Little factor. Direct, personal stuff like (paraphrasing here) “As a woman, how can you let a male who is plainly inferior to you retain the leadership?’, and (actual question)  “Does Andrew Little tend to dull your shine?”

The answer to that last one was, as always, diplomatic: “Part of my job is standing alongside Andrew helping people to get to know him.”

There was no let-up, with journalists in the audience asking: “Do you sometimes feel like a winner in a loser’s party?” (No direct answer), and how it felt to out-poll Little in preferred Prime Minister surveys.  Again, Ardern tried hard: Little had to focus on the party vote, and ‘because of my unusual name, I tend to pop up a little.’

She’s not the only MP being confronted over the party leader’s polling and performance. Other MPs try to stay cool when talking about Little’s TV performances, and that marooned polling figure of just under or on 30 per cent.

Even better than his TV appearances are his ones on Radio NZ. Gold.

Little was elected over two years ago saying he wanted Labour in the 40s. Now they are hoping that on a good day they might get 30%.

Robberies showing the limit to tax increases

The Herald reports:

About $40,000 worth of cigarettes were stolen from a Palmerston shop and thousands of dollars’ worth from a Maheno garage yesterday.

Sergeant Blair Wilkinson, of Oamaru, said police were investigating whether the burglaries, at 5.30am and 4.20am, were linked.

Cigarette robberies have been increasing – there were a series of them in Dunedin in January at service stations.

There seems to be a cigarette related robbery a week.

Increases in the excise tax have been a good tool in the past to reduce the level of smoking. It has worked. But there is a limit to how far you can go until you get the unintended consequences such as a black market. When alcohol was prohibited in the US, the black market prospered.

I don’t think we can do any further tax increases (beyond those announced) without fueling the black market to such a level that lives will be lost in these robberies.

Girls do we have a deal for you

The Herald reports:

Bumbling Kiwi jihadist Mark Taylor, who is fighting for Islamic State in Syria, is looking for love.

Taylor, also known as Mohammad Daniel and Abu Abdul Rahman, has surfaced on islamicmarriage.com to try to find a wife.

The former NZDF soldier, whom the US State Department this year declared a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, says he has a “good sense of humour” and an “understanding about marriage life”.

But the divorced 43-year-old also wants his future bride to join him in Islamic State’s self-declared capital of Raqqa.

“I need a righteous practicing [sic] Muslim lady who wants to do Hijrah [immigrate] here inshallah,” says Taylor who went by the username Abujohndaniel on islamicmarriage.com.

His understanding of marriage life may not be what you think!

 

Why do socialists no longer talk about Venezuela?

The Telegraph reports:

Chávez forcefully nationalised more than 1,150 companies, including the oil industry, public utilities, and many banks. Their productivity has duly collapsed. Today, nationalisation is a dirty word in Venezuela and the people are clamouring for these industries to be privatised again.

Nationalisation is at the heart of socialism. And Labour in New Zealand wants to effectively nationalise the building industry by having the state buy up all the land, build the houses and decide what price they get sold for.

The country’s GDP collapsed by 19 per cent last year, imports are down 50 per cent, and inflation is running at more than 700 per cent.

 At the heart of Venezuela’s economic chaos lies market distortions. Petrol is sold at less than 1p per litre, costing £12 billion in state subsidies. Price controls mean that it is unprofitable for small businesses to sell staple goods, creating shortages.

Having politicians set prices is a very bad idea.

The biggest problem with all socialist systems is the broad definition of human rights. The hard left believe that these should include a right to housing, education and healthcare. But they are prepared to allow these rights to trump others, including the freedom of expression.

Socialism’s abject failure in Venezuela should be a salutary lesson to all wide-eyed leftists around the world, including many young people who have signed up to Corbyn’s Labour Party. It is about time Corbyn himself showed some backbone and condemned the flagrant abuses in Venezuela. The discredited ideology of socialism must be consigned to the dustbin of history once and for all.

Doubt it will happen.

Midwife gets off lightly

The Herald reports:

A midwife has been found guilty of professional misconduct after admitting to having sex with her client’s partner during an affair that lasted for at least five months.

It is hard to think of a worse breach of ethics and professionalism for a midwife. The sense of betrayal to the client/mother would be unimaginable.

The New Zealand Health Practitioners Disciplinary Tribunal found the midwife guilty of misconduct and malpractice.

The director of proceedings accepted the midwife’s name should not be removed from the register because of her remorse and rehabilitation efforts.

I’m amazed that she is still allowed to be a midwife. What does it take to actually get struck off?

The director also noted that usually a suspension of nine to 12 months would be warranted but was not necessary because the midwife had removed herself from practice for five months.

So not even suspended.

Boston Globe on US Ambassador Brown

The Boston Globe writes:

Well played, future Ambassador Scott Brown. You gambled, and you won big.

Your prize: Paradise on Earth. …

Would President Trump reward you for your loyalty, or cast you aside like Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie? At first, it seemed to be going badly. He passed you over for VP. Then, after his inauguration, it looked like he might put you in charge of Veterans Affairs, a post you really wanted and might even be good at. Even Warren endorsed you for the job. Despite that — or maybe because of it — Trump chose somebody else.

But it’s now abundantly clear that, even though you lost, you won. I mean, who would want to be Trump’s VP right now, answering for his crazy tweets, racing after him when he leaves a signing ceremony without actually signing anything? Or visiting the North Korean border, apparently to stare at our foes with menace? True, there’s a chance the VP will be president at some point. And you really would rock that leather bomber jacket Mike Pence looked a little silly in. But being attached so closely to Trump’s White House, or to a management nightmare like the VA, is no recipe for success, much less happiness.

And now look at you, in line for what is surely the most heavenly job a president can bestow: ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa. My homeland may revoke my Australian citizenship for saying this, but New Zealand is probably the most beautiful country on the planet. Have you seen the “Lord of the Rings’’ movies? The two islands are positively jammed with gorgeousness: emerald hills and impossibly blue seas; snowy mountains and dramatic volcanoes; many sheep and very agreeable people.

Nice promotion for New Zealand!

Brash vs Gould

Have been amused by the columns in the NZ Herald where Bryan Gould has continued to insist banks can just create money out of thin air and that Don Brash doesn’t understand banking.

Brash’s latest response is here.

What amuses me is that Gould has probably never had anything to do with banking except operate a cheque account. He is (like Brash) a former politician, and has been unkindly referred to as UK Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn of the 1990s.

What is Brash’s background in terms of banking. Well as far as I can tell it is:

  • Economist, World Bank
  • CEO, Broadbank
  • CEO, Trustbank
  • Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
  • Director, ANZ Bank
  • Director, Westpac Merchant Finance
  • Professor of Banking, AUT
  • Chairman, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China

I hope Gould responds to Brash again. It is great sport.

Teaching kids to kill jews

National’s new candidates

National has completed its candidate selections and their new candidates for 2017 are:

Seat Candidate
Northland Matt King
East Coast Bays Erica Stanford
Maungakiekie Denise Lee
Kelston Bala Beeram
New Lynn Paulo Garcia
Helensville Chris Penk
Mangere Agnes Loheni
Manurewa Katrina Bungard
Pakuranga Simeon Brown
Waikato Tim van de Molen
Napier David Elliott
Tukituki Lawrence Yule
Palmerston North Adrienne Pierce
Whanganui Harete Hipango
Rimutaka Carolyn O’Fallon
Mana Euon Murrell
Wellington Central Nicola Willis
Wigram David Hiatt
Rangitata Andrew Falloon
Dunedin South Matt Gregory

 

Those I have bolded are selected for seats National currently holds.

Of the retiring MPs seven are male and one female. The new candidates are five male and three females so if all else stays constant, National will have to more female MPs. Of course list ranking will play a part also as National has 19 List MPs.

What Remain and Leave voters are doing

A very good analysis at The Guardian on polls showing what EU Remain and Leave voters are doing, compared to their 2015 vote.

For every 100 Remain voters they are finding:

  • Conservatives gain 1 vote
  • Labour loses 4 votes
  • UKIP loses 1 vote
  • Lib Dems gains 4 votes

For every 100 Leave voters they find:

  • UKIP loses 6 votes
  • Labour loses 5 votes
  • Conservatives gain 11 votes

So overall for every 100 voters:

  • UKIP loses 7 votes
  • Labour loses 9 votes
  • Lib Dems gain 4 votes
  • Conservatives gain 12 votes

This helps explains why the Conservatives are so strong. They are picking up Leave voters from UKIP and Labour but also holding their Remain voters. While Labour is losing Remain voters to Lib Dems and Leave voters to the Conservatives.

Wellington top city for quality of life

Stuff reports:

And it seems the world agrees – with Wellington topping the rankings in a new report about where you can find the best quality of life in the world.

The capital has beat competition from major global cities, including Sydney and Melbourne, New York, London – and Auckland – to score the top ranking in the report by the Deutsche Bank in Germany.

Scottish city Edinburgh – often compared to Wellington for its seaside vibe, walk-ability and, ahem, weather – rated the second best city.

The capital might not have the sweltering hot summers, luxury fashion shopping meccas, or centuries-old architecture of many globally desirable cities.

But its residents’ purchasing power, the city’s low crime rate and pollution, healthcare options, cost of living, house prices, commuting time, and climate puts Wellington in top, according to the survey.

The fact the city is so compact is a major plus.

WORLD CLASS CITIES

1. Wellington, New Zealand

2. Edinburgh, Scotland

3. Vienna, Austria

4. Melbourne, Australia

5. Zurich, Switzerland

6. Copenhagen, Denmark

7. Ottawa, Canada

8. Boston, United States

9. Amsterdam, Netherlands

10. Sydney, Australia

I love both Vienna and Edinburgh. Could happily live in either place. Just visited Copenhagen in March and also very pleasant. Boston is a great city also.

Prince Philip retires from public duties

Stuff reports:

Prince Philip, the consort known for his constant support of his wife Queen Elizabeth II as well as for his occasional gaffes, will retire from royal duties later this year.

Philip, 95, made the decision himself with the full support of the queen, Buckingham Palace said in a statement on Thursday. The royal, known as the Duke of Edinburgh, has suffered from heart disease and other ailments in recent years but has nonetheless maintained a vigorous public schedule.

He seemed to be in good health and a fine mood on Wednesday (Thursday NZT) during an appearance at a London cricket club. He joked about being the world’s most experienced person when it comes to unveiling plaques.

Like many, very glad the announcement wasn’t something more serious. I don’t think anyone could say 95 is too young an age to retire. His service has been second only to his wife’s, and I for one have enjoyed his many politically incorrect statements.

Good

Stuff reports:

A Zimbabwean rapist and murderer has left New Zealand after the immigration minister refused to grant him a work visa.

He left the country of his own accord, according to official documents obtained by RNZ.

The man, who called himself William Nduku, arrived here in 2015 on a fake South African passport.

Good.

Regional polls results in UK

An interesting breakdown of a UK poll by region. I’ve listed below the Conservative lead over Labour in each region, and how this has changed from the 2015 result:

  1. Wales +24% (+34%)
  2. South East +24% (-9%)
  3. Humberside +16% (+22%)
  4. South West +13% (-12%)
  5. Eastern +12% (-15%)
  6. East Midlands +12% (nc)
  7. London +11% (+20%)
  8. Scotland +11% (+20%)
  9. West Midland +4% (-5%)
  10. Northern Ireland -2% (+11%)
  11. North West -7% (+7%)
  12. North East -17% (+5%)

So the Conservatives have picked up the most net support in Wales, Humberside, London and Scotland. They have lost support in West Midland, and down South.