RIP Helmut Kohl

The NYT reports:

Helmut Kohl, a towering postwar figure who reunified Germany after 45 years of Cold War antagonism, propelled a deeply held vision of Europe’s integration and earned plaudits from Moscow and Washington for his deft handling of the fall of the Berlin Wall, died on Friday at his home in Ludwigshafen, Germany, the Rhine port city where he was born. He was 87.

“We mourn,” his party, the Christian Democratic Union, said on Twitter in announcing his death.

With his diplomacy, resolve and readiness to commit huge sums to ending his country’s division, Mr. Kohl was remembered by many as a giant of epochal times that remade Europe’s political architecture, dismantled the minefields and watchtowers of the Iron Curtain and replaced the eyeball-to-eyeball armed confrontation between East and West with an enduring, if often challenged, coexistence between former sworn foes.

Merging a communist and capitalist country together into one country was a massive task, and one that could go wrong in so many ways.

Kohl handled it remarkably well, especially with the fears from some of what a reunited Germany would look like.

The fact Germany is now seen as one of strongest countries in the world in terms of its economy, and not a threat to anyone, is partly a credit to Helmut Kohl.

Terror strikes again in London

Another terrible attack in London with an attacker plowing a van into a crowd.

The attack was outside the Muslim Welfare House, and many of those hit were Muslim, it seems.

One attacker appears to have been captured, which is good. There may have been two others.

Not yet known what the motivations were. One report has that an attacker said “‘I’m going to kill all Muslims” which would make it a misguided “revenge” attack which is exactly what the other terrorists want – religious war.

It could be that it was an Islamist who was upset with the local Finsbury Park Mosque for trying to purge the mosque of extremists. Until the captured attacker talks, we won’t know.

I wish there was a simple solution as to how to stop people plowing vans into pedestrians.  You can restrict guns, search for knives, have inspections on planes etc to minimise the chances of other forms of attacks. But so long as you don’t care about being caught or killed, then any idiot can hire a van and drive it into a crowd.

Finally – Waterview completed

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Bill English was joined by Transport Minister Simon Bridges and Finance Minister Steven Joyce to cut the ribbon on the $1.4 billion tunnel project, saying it was part of massive pipeline of investment to support a strong economy and population growth.

English said the Waterview tunnel project was 60 years in the making and a big day for New Zealand.

“There are a lot more projects in the pipeline and this gives us real confidence that we have got the infrastructure capacity to do the investment that is needed to support growth in New Zealand.”

Bridges said the twin tunnels, which completes the 48km western ring route, marked a pivotal milestone not just for Auckland but New Zealand’s highway network.

This is going to make a huge difference to Auckland, especially for transport from the airport.

Labour of course fought against this.

May 2017 public polls

The May 2017 polls newsletter is out. The summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 109, May 2017

There were two political voting polls in May – a Roy Morgan and a One News Colmar Brunton.

The average of the public polls sees National 17% ahead of Labour in May, up 4% from April.

The current seat projection is centre-right 58 seats, centre-left 50 which would see NZ First hold the balance of power.

We show the current New Zealand poll averages for party vote, country direction and preferred PM compared to three months ago, a year ago, three years ago and nine years ago. This allows easy comparisons between terms and Governments.

In the United States Trump saw a marked decline in his approval ratings in May, especially in the area of healthcare.

In the UK as we now know, the polls got it wrong again. However, they did pick up the massive shift in support in May which saw Labour go up 10% in the polls, Theresa May’s net approval rating fall 16% and Jeremy Corbyn’s climb an astonishing 50%!

In Australia, Labor retains a comfortable lead over the Coalition.

In Canada, the Liberals and Trudeau have rebounded after a few bad months.

We also carry details of polls on tax cuts, housing, mental health and property prices as well as business and consumer confidence.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://curia.us10.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e9168e04adbaaaf75e062779e&id=8507431512 to subscribe yourself.

 

 

America’s Cup Day Two

Today

  • Race Three – NZ won by 49 seconds
  • Race 4 – NZ won by 72 seconds

Wins

  • NZ 4
  • US 0

Points

  • NZ 3
  • US 0

NZ needs 4 more points to win the America’s Cup and US needs 7 more points.

Very exciting to win all four races so far, but we have learnt the hard way that it is not over until it is over.

Kiwi to be UK Chief Trade Adviser

Stuff reports:

Britain has appointed a former New Zealand trade negotiator, Crawford Falconer, as its chief adviser on trade talks, just days before exit talks with the European Union are due to begin.

Falconer brings 25 years of experience in trade and public service, and will advise international trade minister Liam Fox, Britain’s newly formed department for international trade said on Friday (Saturday NZT).

He will be tasked with developing and negotiating free trade agreements and market access deals with non-EU countries and shaping trade deals on specific sectors or products.

Falconer is very well respected. A good decision for the UK and a useful outcome for New Zealand as we hope to be an early country to negotiate an FTA with the UK.

Heads should roll at Health

Stacey Kirk writes:

The Health Minister hasn’t called for the head of his top official, but perhaps he should. 

What’s incredible is that Director General of Health Chai Chuah didn’t offer it on a plate, the minute he had to tell Jonathan Coleman the individual DHB funding allocations the Government crowed about on Budget day were wrong. 

Every. Single. One of them. 

The Ministry of Health managed to botch up the amount of money DHBs would be getting to the tune of $38 million, and that’s incompetence, pure and simple. There were 14 DHBs that were overpaid that will have to give up some of their funds, while six were short-changed. 

I agree heads should roll for this.

Individuals can make mistakes, but a huge Ministry with over 1,000 staff should have systems and checks to pick up errors, and especially an error in something as crucial as Budget documentation.

Lower corporate taxes boost jobs and wages

Ike Brannon writes at Cato:

Andrew and I reviewed the economic studies pertinent to this question and the evidence suggests that a lower corporate tax rate boosts employment and wages.

Put briefly, there are two different strands in the literature pertinent to this question: One strand studies the question via different corporate tax rates at the state level while the other looks at corporate tax rate differences across countries.

We believe that the state corporate tax rate differences are most relevant for understanding how a corporate tax rate reduction at the federal level may impact labor markets, because the economic environment is—of course—the same as it would be for federal rate changes.

Comparing between states is better than between countries because different countries can have many other confounding variables.

The research is by no means unanimous of course, but the most relevant studies by our account (most notably by William Harden and William Hart) find that a one percentage point increase in the corporate tax rate would increase unemployment by .2%-.5%. A 10-20% reduction in the rate—the range that the Trump Administration has proposed— would translate to a 2%-10% boost in long-run employment.

So which parties in New Zealand will campaign to cut the corporate tax rate and boost jobs and wages?

The impact on income is of a similar magnitude: The studies we find most compelling (by Alexander Ljungqvist and Michael Smolyansky, as well as Harden and Hart) suggest that a one percentage point reduction in the corporate income tax would boost income by .3% to .6%; for the 10-20% rate reduction on the table, that translates to a long-term boost in income of 3%-12%.

Cutting the NZ corporate tax rate from 28% to 20% would only cost a bit over $2 billion a year.

Shame on Artsplash

Terrible terrible behaviour from those behind WCC’s Artsplash:

Wellington City Council has been forced to apologise to multi-award winning lyricist Sir Tim Rice, after the word “Israel” was removed from his work being used for a children’s festival.

Lyrics from Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat were being used as part of Wellington’s annual children’s festival, Artsplash.

But the song sheets soon sparked controversy, after the line “Children of Israel” was changed to “Children of Kindness”.

This is not a minor change. This is about the biblical Joseph from the Book of Genesis, and some anti-semite decided to remove reference to Israel from it.

Questions were raised on Twitter by Kate Dowling, who asked why it was done.

That tweet prompted a response from Rice himself, who warned he hadn’t given permission for any changes.
Good on Dowling for alerting Rice to it.

He described the “totally unauthorised” change of lyrics as “a terribly drippy and meaningless alteration”.

Wellington City Council moved quickly to fix the mess, apologising and telling Rice they loved his work.

They blamed it on a community co-ordinator. But did they then fix it?

Artsplash Coordinator Mary Prichard told Fairfax the change was made to “keep life simple” at a festival for primary school children.

Really?

After the complaints about the lyric changes, organisers decided to remove the song from its programme entirely, rather than change them back.

Prichard said it wasn’t worth it to go “looking for trouble”.

This is the most appalling part. They then dropped the song entirely. How was it looking for trouble to include the song as written?

Well that is one festival I’d make sure children avoid, if it is being hijacked by political zealots.

Team NZ wins two out of two

A great first day of racing with Emirates Team New Zealand beating Oracle twice.

They won the first race by 30 seconds and the second by 88 seconds.

While the light winds helped New Zealand, it was great to see them also win the starts and see Oracle make some unforced errors – so it wasn’t just a matter of having the right wind.

Team NZ also made some errors, so in no way would I assume tomorrow will get the same results as today. But a huge psychological boost as up until today we had not beaten Oracle in the earlier rounds.

NZ now leads 1 – 0 (we started at -1). So we need to win six more races to win and Oracle need to win seven races to win.

Large union donation

The Herald reports:

Labour and the Green Party will get a boost to their respective election campaign war chests from a major union.

E Tu (previously the EPMU and the Service and Food Workers unions) has announced it will donate $120,000 to Labour and $30,000 to the Greens, roughly the same amounts given ahead of the 2014 election.

The E Tu union is very powerful within Labour. It now represents over half the affiliate vote and has a decisive say on issues such as the leadership.

If the unions did not get a vote in the last leadership election, Grant Robertson would have beaten Andrew Little by 56% to 44%.

Mika standing in Auckland Central

The Herald reports:

A breakdance pioneer, actor and artist will go up against Nikki Kaye in Auckland Central in September’s election.

Gareth Morgan’s Opportunities Party (TOP) has announced Mika as its Auckland Central candidate.

Mika’s artistic career has covered stage, film, television, fashion and music, including appearing in the Oscar-winning film The Piano, Shortland Street, and Mika Haka Kids. He has performed for Prince Charles and at 10 Edinburgh Festivals.

A high profile candidate for TOP. Will there be more?

Oh dear, the new Internet Party leader

I’d quite like there to be a credible Internet Party fighting for laws to protect the Internet etc.

I thought it would be hard for the Internet Party to do worse than last time, but I think they have managed it.

The Herald reports:

Kim Dotcom’s political venture, the Internet Party, has a new leader. But she may not be in New Zealand for the election – given she is living in self-imposed exile in Moscow.

Activist and citizen journalist Suzie Dawson has been seeking temporary asylum in Russia since late last year.

I blogged on Ms Dawson in January. Some extracts:

  • I remember us getting followed around by Auckland Transport vehicles
  • there were days in 2014 where I honestly did not expect to see the light of day in that week. 
  • So, at the end of 2014 after there had been several overt attempts on my life, which I document in the documentary
  • Because privatised spying and privatised policing is huge, this is what we face now, is for-profit companies that make money from targeting us.
  • Then I covered off the specific assassination attempts that I experienced in the lead up to the Moment of Truth event.
  • I had the interior ceiling of my house painted and then little holes would appear in my ceiling, just randomly – it’s so sad – I used to go and stick chewing gum in them or pick-up-sticks – honest to God – because one day my ceiling has no holes in it then the next day there’s these little holes in it and I’m like ‘what the hell is going on?’
  • We were standing in the way of absolutely everything that they were trying to do to our country and I was the conduit to the international media and to breaking the information out of New Zealand and getting it into the global sphere. And I think that that is one of the many reasons that they came down on me particularly hard.
  • If you look at the science of 9/11, it’s obvious that there is a lot of questions to be asked there, just purely from a scientific perspective.

I really really hope she is included in the minor party leaders’ debate assuming she can video-conference in from her room in Moscow where she is hiding from the GCSB assassins.

Caption Contest

Major Auckland housing project gets green light

Stuff reports:

Construction of a controversial $1.2 billion Auckland housing development will go ahead following more than five years of opposition.

Up to 1500 dwellings will be built at the former Three Kings Quarry between the suburbs of Mt Roskill and Royal Oak, after a compromise was reached between developer Fletcher Living and resident groups.

Community consultation on the $1.2 billion redevelopment began in 2008.

This is a good example of the reality of major housing developments. They often face local opposition and can take years just to get consented. Labour themselves have fought against some housing developments in Auckland.

You can promise 100,000 houses in ten years but the reality is it will never ever happen.

Trump under investigation for obstruction of justice

USA Today reports:

The investigation into ties between President Trump’s campaign and the Russian government has now turned to investigating Trump himself for obstruction of justice, the Washington Post reported Wednesday.

The expansion of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation would represent the clearest legal threat to date for Trump, who has long maintained that he is not personally under investigation — and who reportedly pressured former FBI Director James Comey to say so publicly.

The Post, citing unnamed sources, said the investigation into the president’s own conduct began shortly after Trump fired Comey on May 9. That prompted Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to appoint Robert Mueller — himself a former FBI director — as special counsel the following week.

Mueller has scheduled interviews with key national security officials about the matter. They include Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, Mike Rogers, director of the National Security Agency, and his former deputy director, Richard Ledget, the Post reported.

Nancy Pelosi talked the other day about not needing to try and impeach Trump as he will effectively self-impeach. She may be right.

I’ve not seen anything to suggest Trump colluded with the Russians, or even that his team did. So no crime there.

But if Trump really did (as alleged) pressure the NSA, CIA and NI directors to pressure the FBI to drop the probe, then he may well have broken the law. Whether you like it or not, politicians should not interfere in criminal investigations.

Unless Trump can learn what is and is not acceptable behaviour for a President, he won’t last the four years. If he does learn, he might even get eight years.

National rejects most gun law changes

The Herald reports:

Federated Farmers has applauded the Government’s decision to reject recommendations to tighten firearms rules, including having police record serial numbers on guns.

Police Minister Paula Bennett has today responded to the law and order select committee report on illegal firearms, accepting only seven of 20 recommendations designed to stop criminals getting their hands on guns. …

The committee inquiry had caused concern among some gun owners and widespread changes would have been a controversial issue in election year.

Rejected recommendations include requiring police to record serial numbers of all firearms upon renewal of licence or inspection, requiring a licence to possess ammunition, and making dealers keep records of ammunition sales.

Bennett also declined to act on the recommendation to investigate the creation of a category of restricted semi-automatic rifle and shotgun.

Federated Farmers national board member Katie Milne said the rejected recommendations would have done little to stop firearms getting into the hands of criminals.

“The farming community is frustrated with poorly thought out solutions to real problems that simply burden law abiding citizens,” Milne said.

“We are pleased to see the Government has listened and is directing attention to where it should be.”

Labour’s police spokesman Stuart Nash said he believed Bennett had “got it 100 per cent right”, and backed the same recommendations he had come to believe were needed.

As a member of the select committee he had received a large amount of feedback after the recommendations were released, including through public meetings. Nash said he came to realise many of the recommendations wouldn’t help keep guns out of the hands of criminals.

So Labour is saying the Government got it right by rejecting most of the recommendations.

Act leader David Seymour said it was a relief to learn Bennett would reject most recommendations, that went “far beyond” targeting illegal gun possession.

ACT happy also.

Government response to committee recommendations:

1.A firearms licence required to possess ammunition. Reject.
2.A dealer’s licence required to sell ammunition. Reject.
3.Dealers required to keep records of ammunition sales. Reject.
4.Registration process for websites facilitating trading in firearms, parts, or ammunition. Partial rejection – not registration but clarify ‘mail order’ process applies to online sales.
5.Permit to procure extended to cover all sales or transfers of firearms (i.e. include A category firearms). Reject.
6.Investigate the creation of a category of restricted semi-automatic rifle and shotgun. Reject.
7.Implement firearm prohibition orders. Accept.
8.Codify the ‘fit and proper’ criteria in the Arms Act. Reject.
9.Implement a stand-down period after licence revocation. Accept.
10.Clarify that gang members or prospects must not be considered ‘fit and proper’ to possess firearms. Accept.
11.Require Police to record serial numbers of all firearms upon renewal of licence or inspection of premises. Reject.
12.Review the penalties in the Arms Act. Accept.
13.Treat dealer offending as aggravated at sentencing. Reject.
14.Determine appropriate security standards for A category licences. Accept.
15.Secure storage confirmed before licence or endorsement received. Reject.
16.Allow Police to enter premises to inspect security of A category firearms. Reject.
17.Failure to comply with storage regulations to result in mandatory revocation. Reject.
18.Clarify and publicise the extent of amnesty provisions in the Arms Act 1983. Accept.
19.Police publicise amnesty provisions. Reject.
20.Check that firearms brought in on visitors permit are exported or transferred legally. Accept.

Looks like a victory for gun owners who are not criminals.

Would a nuclear free world be safer?

Jim Rose writes at Stuff:

Imagine what the world would be like if we woke up tomorrow morning without nuclear weapons.

It would be a world where every crisis was a potential nuclear exchange. The first nation to rearm would dominate. Beware of the man not with the thousand nuclear bombs but with one.

When there is one nuclear bomb, its use can be contemplated. When there are thousands, first use is suicide. Only a few missiles in a second-strike need get through to devastate your country.

Noble prize-winning nuclear strategist Thomas Schelling pointed out in 1960 that nuclear disarmament was not possible unless there was universal brain surgery eliminating the knowledge of both nuclear weapons and the principles of physics behind their construction. An impossible dream.

This is true – you can’t uninvent something.

There can be no peace unless both sides are better off not fighting. There must be a set of negotiated settlements that both sides prefer to war.

This need for a bargaining range is the fundamental flaw of peace activists. When they call for talks, peace activists never explain what will be discussed in a world where everybody does not share their good intentions. There can be no diplomacy in wars of annihilation such as with Isis or Nazi Germany.

Peace activists in the 1970s demanded the West unilaterally disarm, which would have left the USSR as the major political and military power.

Stockpiles of nuclear weapons and fleets of bombers in the air 24/7 during the Cold War prevented a hot war from starting. If you are ready for war, you will not need to fight. If you cry “peace, peace, peace now” you end up fighting. What brings war is signalling weakness and concessions.

It is still a harsh truth that if you want peace, those tempted to make use of nuclear weapons must know they will pay a terrible price in retaliation. That is what kept the peace even with volatile characters like Khrushchev and Mao. It is the only language North Korea and Iran understand.

It is why North Korea will probably never use their nukes. It would be suicide.

Guest Post: Maori prisons (and Maori offending) revisited

A guest post by David Garrett:

A few  weeks ago I had a piece on proposed  Maori prisons published here.  I came down firmly against the idea, and opined that they would be “dismal failures”, just like the Maori Focus Units (now renamed Te Tirohanga units) that exist now within some prisons.  My view was based mostly  on “unofficial” sources of information within the prison system.  In short, I had been misinformed. I ought to have waited for answers to my OIA request on the subject, mea culpa. I have now obtained those answers, and changed my view somewhat accordingly.

I asked the Department of Corrections first, “What percentage of inmates who had spent time in Maori Focus Units reoffend within five years of release?” The answer is 64.8%, which is about 10% lower  than the reoffending figures for those who had NOT spent time in a Maori focus unit (73.4% of the general population  reoffended within five years).  The Department does warn that “the figures are not comparable, as the two groups are not matched by risk factors”.

I take that to mean that the group chosen to spend time in an MFU are more motivated to change their behaviour as compared to the inmate population as a whole, which would tend to lead to a better result for the first group as compared with “the rest”. I also asked what percentage of prisoners went to Maori focus units in the first place, and what percentage of the prison  operating budget was devoted to them. Again, something of a surprise.

As at 30 April 2017, 3.9% of the prison muster were housed in a TTU (Te Tirohanga Unit) while only 1.4% of the total prisons budget is devoted to them.  So, notwithstanding the positive skew of the results arising from the population of the TTU’s being more motivated to rehabilitate themselves, after five years there is a significant difference in reoffending rates for those who have spent time in a TTU as compared with those who haven’t, and just as importantly, these units cost less to run than one would logically expect.

So far so good. It would appear then that TTU’s are working quite well – if not being the magic bullet which cures Maori reoffending – and therefore an entire prison run as a TTU would be warmly welcomed by Maori working in this area. Not so.

A week or so ago I was the token whitey – and token right winger – on what was billed as a “panel discussion” on Maori TV regarding Maori prisons. I envisaged a balanced debate, but found I was outnumbered four to one – but I digress; I’m a big boy. In addition to me, the panel consisted of a young Maori lawyer who is active within Kim Workman’s outfit “Rethinking Crime and punishment”, a Maori law lecturer from AUT, and two former prison inmates. Very much to my surprise, the consensus – the academic dissenting – was that Maori prisons were anathema; a “colonization construct”, and that a “Maori prison” was an oxymoron. Maori offenders ought to instead be dealt with in some unspecified “Maori way” – quite what that “way” was to consist of was not made clear.

At one point I asked the young lawyer, one Julia Whaipooti,  where, if not jail, the animals who bashed and kicked and stomped young Moko Rangitoheriri to death should go. The “answer” seemed to go on for some minutes, but at the end I was none the wiser. I think it was something about not generalizing from specifics.

So, although the TTU’s – and by extension a prison run on Maori lines – show some significant degree of success, many Maori are opposed to this concept. Our TV panel then discussed what were the real causes of the high rate of Maori offending and imprisonment. There was considerable consensus:  all agreed it  arises in the home environment – with of course the usual suspects of colonization and a lack of understanding of the Maori way being thrown in. Unsurprisingly, none of the Maori members of the panel were prepared to say exactly why Maori homes seem to produce a disproportionate number of criminal offenders.

Last week was a rich one for information. In addition to the OIA, I  obtained some research which pretty clearly shows what we all instinctively know: Maori criminal offending is closely correlated, and in my view  largely caused by, the destruction of the typical  Maori family such as the one  I wrote about in my earlier piece, our  next door neighbours, the Tuhakas. For those who didn’t read that  piece, Kumi Tuhaka was a roadman for the old Ministry of Works. His wife – like every other woman at that time – was a full time  stay at  home Mum. They had two daughters, who were our childhood playmates, and are both now university educated professionals. Except for having only two children, the Tuhakas were a typical Maori family in the 60’s and early 70’s. There were several families just like them in the state housing block I grew up in.

Today, things are very different.  I would guess the “typical Maori family” now is a solo mum in her 20’s, with several children to different fathers. Males will come and go in the home; none will be committed, and even fewer will marry the mother. The stats would seem to support that view.

While none of us can  for sure what the “typical Maori family” of  2017 is, consider these facts: in 1968 72% of Maori  births were to married couples –  by 2015, that figure had fallen to 21%; according to the last census, 84% of one parent families were headed by the mother; Maori teenage births are almost twice that of paheka teenage births (58/1000 per year vs. 30/1000/pa); 42% of children under 15  live with a Maori mother and no father, compared with 22% of pakeha children under 15 (2010 figures). And whether we like it or not, the correlation between one parent families – of whatever race – and later problems for the children is unarguable.

But don’t take my word for it; here is President Obama in a 2008 Fathers Day speech:

“We know the statistics – that children who grow up without a father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime; nine times more likely to drop out of schools, and twenty times more likely to end up in prison…”

So, is there any magic in actually being married? Isn’t a stable two parent household –whether mum and dad or mum and mum – just as good? Sadly no, much as many of us would wish that is the case. According to the Christchurch child development study, unmarried cohabitation is the biggest risk factor for breakdown of the child’s family in his or her first five years: 49.9% of de facto couples separate in that period, vs. 10.9% of married couples. There is a close correlation between declining formal marriage and notifications to CYFS – as marriage rates declined, so notifications to CYFS increased.

What does this all tell us, and what can we do about what is unarguably a very depressing picture? Well, first face facts.  I would say the following are pretty well unarguable:

  1. A child who grows up in a one parent family is much more likely to have poor life outcomes, and to become a criminal, than those in a traditional two parent family;
  2. In New Zealand, such children are very much more likely to be Maori than pakeha or Asian;
  3. De facto couples are much more likely to split in the first five years of a child’s life than married couples;
  4. The rate of traditional marriage has declined hugely since the 1960’s;
  5. There is a clear correlation – if not a proven causal relationship – between declining marriage rates and young people becoming offenders;
  6. The decline in marriage rates is considerably greater among Maori parents as compared to the population as a whole.

So what can we do to change this? Much as religious zealots would like to believe otherwise, marriage rates have fallen and de facto unions have increased, and nothing much will change that. The state is not about to provide incentives for people to marry as they once did – married tax rates used to be much lower than single tax rates.

We can however stop incentivizing young women to produce children into one parent or highly unstable two parent homes. The National-ACT government has taken some very tentative steps in this regard, removing the benefit incentives gained by endlessly reproducing. That move should continue, and become more firm.

We can stop teaching kids that ANY kind of family is as good as another: the facts simply do not fit that conclusion. It is very clear that a two parent family, preferably where the parents are married, produces better outcomes for the children than any other version of family. In short we can and should give our children the facts, and not obfuscate and hide the reality, unwelcome as the reality may be, and whether or not it is contrary to what ones ideological beliefs are.

In the meantime, and consistent with my view that the facts ought to govern what we do, by all means let’s try a prison run on the same lines as the present Te Tirohanga units. While the impact on reoffending may be small, ANY reduction in recidivism is welcome. Even if we changed our way of living tomorrow to reflect what we know about single parent families and criminal offending, it would take a generation for change to be reflected in offender numbers.

NZ’s greatest war hero – Air Chief Marshall Sir Keith Park

Today is the birthday of probably the greatest war hero New Zealand ever had – that of Keith Rodney Park born in Thames and educated in Auckland and Dunedin who was the Air Officer Commanding or leader of RAF Fighter Group 11 tasked with defending London and the vital RAF fighter squadrons in the southeast of England during the Battle of Britain.

Some readers may object to this designation and cite Sir Charles Upham who won the prestigious Victoria Cross twice in World War 2 (one of only three out of 1,355 VC recipients to achieve such feats of bravery). There is no denying the incredible heroism of Upham and his bravery on the battlefield that has done New Zealand proud. But when you weight up the absolutely crucial role Park played in the Battle of Britain, it is hard to find another New Zealander who has played such a vital role in such a pivotal battle.

The architect of the RAF’s victory in the Battle of Britain was Chief of RAF Fighter Command Air Chief Marshall Sir Hugh Dowding. Whilst various commentators point to the vital role of the Spitfire and radar in winning the Battle of Britain, it was Dowding who conceived the entire elaborate defensive structure of Britain that gave the British the edge in battle and of all his subordinates, it was Keith Park who was the tip of the spear and whose job it was to implement Dowding’s plans in the most vulnerable and essential region of the England.

Dowding was a dour and gruff Scotsman but possessed a consummate determination to face down entrenched reactionary opposition within the War Ministry for his plans. It was Dowding who pressed ahead with plans to seek tenders for two modern mono wing fighters (the Hurricane and the Spitfire) against the prevailing mindset that biplanes were superior because of their maneuverability (a carry-over from WW 1 dogfighting). It was Dowding who championed radar which at the time was an experimental technology with no proven track record of success. Despite skepticism and opposition, he pressed ahead with the installation of a network of radar towers along the south and east coast of England called Chain Home and augmented it with 30,000 on-the-ground observers who could assess height and size of German flight formations as radar could only work out to sea. Dowding divided Britain into four Fighter Groups and allocated the strengths of the fighter squadrons in each group. Dowding was the one to devise the centralized command structure with Operation Rooms in each group and then linked the Group Operations Rooms to his central Command Room at Fighter Command HQ at Bentley Priory. Dowding ensured that deep, concrete-protected phone lines were laid between each of the Group Operations rooms and all the fighter squadrons and from all Observer Corp and Radar stations to his Central Command Room. This ensured that vital communication could continue despite the disruptions of the bombing that he anticipated.

Dowding installed state of the art colour coded readiness boards in each Group Operations Room which displayed at a glance the strength and readiness of each fighter squadron in the Group. The readiness boards and banks of phones were grouped around a large central plotting table with a giant map of the Group’s area of defense with all the fighter squadrons marked. WAAF officers were given headsets that connected to the Group Commanders whose job it was to receive the raw Radar and Observer Corp data from Bentley Priory thus giving an accurate description of the size of an incoming German raid, its height, direction and breakdown of Luftwaffe bombers and fighters. Each Group Air Officer Commanding and his staff could then choose from the readiness board which squadrons were in the best position to be scrambled just in time to meet the German formations. The system was sophisticated enough for Squadron Leaders and even Flight Leaders to have WAAF plotters patched directly through to the R/T radios in their cockpits to receive real time updates of enemy movements while they raced in the air to meet the incoming German planes.

This complex system took years of careful planning and dogged determination to pull off. But whilst Dowding had created the best logistical structure for the defense of England, it fell to Keith Park to actually run the apparatus of the system in the area that bore the brunt of the German attacks. Park had to decide with only a few minutes leeway as to which squadrons to scramble, where to send his fighters and in what numbers to what height. Leaving the decision too late left precious fighters on the ground and vulnerable to being bombed whilst making the decision to scramble too early meant the RAF fighters would arrive in the air too soon and squander precious fuel searching the skies for incoming German planes. It was said that Dowding managed the Battle of Britain from day to day but it was Park who managed it hour by hour on the front lines of the skies above Kent, Surrey and London. In WW 1 it was once said that Admiral Jellicoe (Admiral of the British Grand Fleet) was the only man who could lose the war in an afternoon. Given the precarious balancing act Park was up against through the heat of the Battle of Britain, it was said that he was the only man who could lose the battle also in a single afternoon.

Park was a hands-on commander alternating between overseeing 11 Group’s coordination of the course of battle from his Group Operations Room deep in a bunker below RAF Uxbridge and flying around all his squadrons in his own Hurricane. Here are a series of interviews with RAF pilots who flew under Park as they sum up what it was like to be commanded by him.

The Battle of Britain was a close-run thing. Despite the advantages of Dowding’s integrated air defense system, in the end it came down to a race to see who could build new fighter planes and train new pilots the fastest. By the end of August 1940, Dowding told Churchill that had only enough pilots and fighters to last 3 weeks such were the losses the Luftwaffe were inflicting by its relentless bombing of the squadrons in the south. Churchill ordered a small flight of Wellingtons to bomb Berlin. This raid did little damage except to so enrage Hitler and Goering that suddenly in early September, they ordered the Luftwaffe to cease its attacks on the fighter fields of 11 Group and commence bombing London in retaliation. This one tactical blunder cost Germany the Battle of Britain. As Londoners bore the brunt of the Blitz, Dowding and Park had time to replace and repair damaged Hurricanes and Spitfires and train new pilots so that gradually through the autumn of 1940, the RAF were able to gain air supremacy and save Britain from what in May seemed certain invasion.

Park was the lynchpin who drove RAF Fighter Command’s defense of England. He stoically backed Dowding even when faced with intense opposition from the head of 12 Group AVM Leigh-Mallory who proposed a different strategy (that of scrambling all available squadrons into a giant formation) versus Park and Dowding who favoured the smaller squadron-by-squadron piecemeal defensive forays where squadrons would attack large bombing formations and get out quickly to refuel and re-arm allowing the next squadron to attack the same formation. Such was the politics of the Air Ministry that both Dowding and Park were relieved of their commands soon after the Battle of Britain despite their essential role in its victory.

It is hard to underestimate the enormous impact Park had on the Battle of Britain which in turn was one of the most consequential battles of WW 2. Had the RAF failed and Britain fallen, who knows how long it would’ve taken to liberate Europe. Park returned to NZ in 1946 as an Air Chief Marshall. He served on the Auckland City Council for a few terms and died in 1975 with little fanfare. He and Dowding have rarely been heralded for the absolutely crucial role they both played in Britain’s victory in the Battle of Britain. For this feat, Keith Park surely is New Zealand’s greatest war hero.

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