Canon Media Award Winners 2017

The full list of winners is here, and congrats to them. Some highlights:

  • Best Blog Site: Villainesse
  • Best News Website or App: Newshub
  • Website of the Year: NZ Herald
  • Feature Writer – business and politics: Simon Wilson, Metro
  • Canon Newspaper of the Year: Weekend Herald
  • Opinion Writer – business and politics: Simon Wilson, Public Address, RNZ and The Spinoff
  • Best editorial campaign or project: “#buythisbeachNZ”, Stuff
  • Best investigation: Matt Nippert, NZ Herald
  • Reporter of the Year: Matt Nippert, NZ Herald
  • Wolfson Fellowship: Miriyana Alexander, Editor of the Weekend Herald and Herald on Sunday

While I do not always agree with him, I do think Simon Wilson has written much excellent stuff this year – I enjoy the long form pieces. Also Matt Nippert has done some very good investigative journalism.

Kearney on Labour’s negative gearing policy

Nick Kearney writes in the Herald:

I was fascinated to see Andrew Little’s speech to party faithful this week. The references to ending property speculation were intriguing.

The three policy elements involved bashing property speculators, but “mums and dads” saving for their retirement aren’t going to be affected apparently.

Except they are the ones who will be most impacted.

I was reading this speech while watching a replay of the Warriors capitulation at the hands of Penrith, and right about now my pain doubled.

Surely Little was referring to investors who claim tax losses on their rental investment properties, not speculators.

It had to be, because I have never come across a property speculator who claimed a tax loss against their rental investments.

The two are mutually exclusive. Speculators are not investors, and vice versa. Indeed, the law prohibits speculators from claiming tax losses against personal income as these losses are ring-fenced. They are currently liable to pay tax on their gains, whether sold within two years, or more.

So I read more of his speech. Was it meant to hit large-scale investors who continually use equity to buy more properties and accumulate tax losses? It seemed not.

Little continued by saying the policy “is about the big speculators who purchase property after property. It’s about those big-time speculators who are taking tens of thousands of dollars a year in taxpayer subsidies as they hoover up house after house.”

Speculators two, investors nil.

Who wrote this speech? Surely the actual policy would clear the matter up. Alas, I shouldn’t be so optimistic.

Foolish boy.

The start was encouraging. It said: “Losses from rental property investments will be ring-fenced.” That’s better. It hits the proper target. Labour had finally hit the right nail.

But the nail went into rotting wood. Because with the next smack it said: “Speculators will no longer be able to use tax losses on their rental properties to offset their tax on other income, a practice called negative gearing.”

Oh dear. Maybe they just rushed it. I’d better read on.

“The biggest users of this loophole are large-scale speculators who own multiple rentals and use losses on new acquisitions to continually reduce their tax.”

Most, no all, of my clients use rentals as long-term investments, not for short-term speculation. I have some who are in their early 20s, and they understand the difference between the two.

My incredulity was almost over, or so I thought.

Yet the best was yet to come. According to Labour: “Ending this loophole will not affect most people who have bought a single rental as a long-term investment because most of them are not using it. Those that do use this loophole generally only do so for a few years after purchase.”

There are so many errors with this statement, it needs another column to explain them all. But as a sweetener, I can confidently state that most long-term investors are using the alleged “loophole”.

And it isn’t a loophole.

It’s not a loophole as such, it’s applied across the board to every investment, whether it involves property, or not.

Yep.

All of this was a shame, because some of Labour’s housing policy has a lot of merit, particularly the parts around removing the rural urban boundary to enable houses to be built.

I wish they’d mention that policy more often. It is their best one.

New definition of success

The Guardian reports:

Jeremy Corbyn’s biggest trade union backer has said he does not believe Labourwill win the election but would have fought a successful campaign if it keeps 200 seats, although that would be the party’s worst result since 1935.

The intervention by Len McCluskey, the general secretary of Unite, overshadowed the launch of Labour’s election manifesto, which set out £50bn spending pledges and higher rates of tax for those earning over £80,000 and £123,000.

The union leader blamed a hostile media for the scale of the task of turning around the leader’s image in the minds of voters, but added that Corbyn would have succeeded even if he won slightly fewer seats than the 229 the party held in the last parliament.

So their worst result since 1935 will be regarded as a success.

In NZ Labour seem to think only getting their 2nd or 3rd worst result since 1922 will be regarded as a huge achievement.

Beyond gullible

The Herald reports:

Jim told Linda he was worried about his safety in Lebanon, where there was a “risk foreign workers can be kidnapped”, and asked her to be his next of kin.

Linda later said these were all tactics Jim used to “lure me into his web of deception”.

“I was led to believe that this person, who I had met through an acquaintance, was genuine and had good moral standards.”

She was given Jim’s account details at what was described as a Scottish investment bank.

After contacting the “bank” and proceeding through security checks, Linda was named as a co-signer of Jim’s account.

Up until there, all fine.

The bank asked her to make an initial deposit of US$15,000 ($21,780), before a second payment of US$45,000 ($65,350) was required for a Bank of America account in San Diego.

This is the point at which huge alarm bells should have gone off. You do not need to deposit money to be a co-signer, let alone $15,000.

Growing increasingly brazen, the scammer(s), via the investment bank, further asked Linda to pay an fee of US$85,000 ($123,430) to receive an “anti-terrorist clearance certificate” and cover wire transfers of more than US$5 million ($7.25m).

Linda didn’t pay the fee, but a few days later Jim raised the issue of helping him with a personal loan of $US10,000 ($14,500) for a Kuala Lumpur-based building supplier.

She loaned the money, after which Jim said he’d made a mistake and required a further US$40,000 ($58,000), which Linda paid.

I really don’t understand how someone can be so gullible they would transfer tens of thousands of dollars to someone they have never met.

Jim claimed his Beirut construction project had developed problems, and he had to pay income tax to the Lebanese Government.

He asked and received for a further US$50,000.

“Of course I was very reluctant to make further loan payments. Then he told me about the kidnapping of a foreign worker from a construction site next to his,” she said.

In total, Linda forked out more than $300,000.

Sad.

du Fresne says wrong people charged

Karl du Fresne writes:

I can’t help wondering whether the wrong person was on trial in the Whanganui District Court last week.

The name on the charge sheet was that of Kerry James “Chester” Borrows, who was tried on a charge of careless driving causing injury. But it seems to me there were other charges that could equally have been brought as a result of an incident that occurred during an anti-Trans Pacific Partnership protest in March last year – only not against Borrows.

For example, there’s a charge of disorderly behaviour and another of obstructing a public way.

I’m not a lawyer, but it’s surely not too much of a stretch to argue that a person deliberately stopping someone else going about their lawful business is acting contrary to public order, which is how my dictionary defines disorderly behaviour.

I agree. The wrong person was in the dock.

A police witness estimated the car’s speed as 1kmh – far slower than walking speed. Borrows testified that he feathered his brakes, as he was trained to do in similar situations during his 24 years as a police officer.

In any event, the protesters had ample time to get out of the way. They chose not to.

Let me repeat, they chose not to. They seemed to think their opposition to the TPP gave them the right to prevent two elected public officials going about their lawful business.

Spot on.

WCC constantly ignoring LGOIMA law

Stuff reports:

An independent public watchdog has ordered Wellington’s mayor to review his council’s procedures for sharing information with ratepayers.

This week, Ombudsman Leo Donnelly told Wellington City Council to review the way it responded to requests for information made under the Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act (LGOIMA), and to remind its staff of their obligations. …

The move comes after a complaint was made by Stuff when the city council ignored requests for information related to the $500 million development of Wellington’s Shelly Bay, which will likely involve the lease or sale of ratepayer-owned land for $7.8m.

The law requires a decision be made on a LGOIMA request no later than 20 working days after it is received.

The Stuff request was received by the council on January 6 and despite numerous reminders, no response has been received.

Donnelly ruled the council’s refusal was a failure to meet the requirements of the request. He ordered the council to make a decision and communicate to Stuff as a priority.

Another Stuff request for information relating ratepayer money spent on the Wellington Sevens’ tournament was submitted on January 18.

The Ombudsman found the council failed under the act and said he had reminded the council that timeliness, and compliance with LGOIMA, were “fundamental” obligations.

Many local Councils seem to think that LOGOIMA compliance is voluntary and just flagrantly breach the law by ignoring the deadlines and sometimes not even responding. Wellington City Council appears to be one of the worst offenders. It is not acceptable.

A silly prosecution

Stuff reports:

The Ministry of Health has laid charges against tobacco company Philip Morris New Zealand relating to a new type of non-burning tobacco product.

The product, Iqos, was launched at the end of last year. It was promoted through an invitation-only website and used a battery-powered holder to heats tobacco sticks known as heets to give off vapour rather than smoke.

Heets are heated rather than burned like a traditional cigarette, to give smokers a nicotine hit.

The ministry said it considered heets were tobacco products designed for oral use other than for smoking and were prohibited under the Smoke-Free Environments Act.

Which shows how silly the Act is, if a correct interpretation. Tobacco, which is lethal, is legally sold in New Zealand. Reduced harm products which provide a nicotine hit but do not produce the toxins from burning tar etc are much much much safer than tobacco.  Yet the Ministry of Health is saying they are illegal.

Philip Morris said the Ministry’s move demonstrated the need for comprehensive reform so that smokers could switch from cigarettes to smoke-free alternatives.

General manager of Philip Morris New Zealand Jason Erickson said the company believed it was helping to advance the Government’s goal of making the country smokefree when it introduced Iqos to New Zealand. 

​Erickson said the company was confident that the sale of Iqos and heets fully complied with the Smokefree Environments Act (1990) and other relevant legislation in New Zealand.

“The section of the law referenced by the Ministry in its action against Philip Morris was originally put in place in the 1990s to address American-style chewing tobacco,”  Erickson said.

“We stand behind Iqos and heets,” Mr Erickson said. “But it’s clear that old 20th century laws are not sufficient to address new 21st century technologies that New Zealand smokers are embracing as they move away from combustible cigarettes.”

The New Zealand Government announced in March that it would legalise the sale and supply of nicotine e-cigarettes and e-liquid, and establish a pathway to enable emerging tobacco and nicotine-delivery products to be sold lawfully as consumer products.

Iqos is available in in more than 20 countries around the world, including the UK, Japan, Italy and Switzerland. Globally more than two million smokers have switched to IQOS and the company had plans to expand to key cities in 30 countries by the end of 2017, Erickson said.

Ideally people should not smoke anything at all. But if they are already a tobacco smoker, then getting them on reduced harm product has immense health benefits.

“Cutting immigration is essential for (our) quality of life”

Go Goff go

The Herald reports:

High level discussions are under way over the future of Ports of Auckland as mayor Phil Goff wrestles with how to fund the city’s ballooning infrastructure costs.

But Goff is refusing to be drawn on whether he plans to sell the council’s ownership stake, saying only he wants to address the port’s long-term future this term.

The Herald understands an IPO, or initial public offering, of the port is being discussed in merchant banking circles. Either a sale of the operating company or a part sale of the entire entity is understood to be under discussion.

Goff would only say he has had wide-ranging discussions on Auckland’s port but no specific proposal on ownership has been presented to him.

Auckland Chamber of Commerce chief executive Michael Barnett said last night he was aware of discussions around the port’s future.

It would make “real commercial sense” to sell the business and retain the land, Barnett said.

Selling some or all of the Port Company would be a great move. Ports of Tauranga has done brilliantly since being wholly Council owned. Auckland Council needs investment in infrastructure and freeing up capital is a much more sensible way to finance the infrastructure than further debt.

If Goff does go down this track, he’ll have my full support.

Shaw jumps the shark and Godwins himself

The Herald reports:

Labour leader Andrew Little has slapped down Green Party co-leader James Shaw’s comparison of US President Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler, saying the first person to bring Hitler into an argument had lost it.

Shaw said Trump was “the most dangerous person since Adolf Hitler” on TV show Backbenches on Wednesday night as part of a panel of politicians.

Little said people needed to keep things in perspective and have a little faith in the US system.

“Pretty much I follow the principle that the first person to raise Hitler in a political argument loses it.

When Andrew Little slaps you down for being a hysterical leftie, that’s a good sign of how bad you are.

Shaw comes across as a moron (he isn’t but his statement is moronic) with his assertion. To date Trump has done nothing on foreign policy except stop chemical weapon attacks in Syria, and domestically sack an FBI Director. I think Trump’s personality and psychology makes him a bad choice for President, but there is a million miles between thinking that and Hitler comparisons.

Does Shaw think Trump is more dangerous than Mao who killed 40 million people? Than Pol Pot who killed 2 million? Than Stalin who killed millions and almost started another global war.

It’s ridiculous to even talk of him in the same breath and it is insulting to the six million who were slaughtered by Hitler due to their race or religion.

Shaw should apologise.

Special counsel appointed for Russia probe

The Washington Post reports:

Congressional investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 election will continue despite the Justice Department’s decision to appoint a special counsel to oversee a separate probe, lawmakers said late Wednesday.

Republicans and Democrats welcomed the decision to appoint Robert Mueller, a former prosecutor who served as FBI director from 2001 to 2013, but said their own investigations would proceed without delay.

This is a good development – both for the US political and justice system, and also ironically for Trump. Trump’s blundering has meant that there would be no faith in an internal investigation anymore. Having a former FBI Director appointed as special counsel to oversee the investigation will mean people should have faith in the findings.

And ironically I think this helps Trump. I don’t think he colluded with the Russians, and I’m not sure his campaign did either. This is the best opportunity for him to eventually have this behind him.

If however it does turnout that a member of his campaign team actively solicited the hacking of the DNC, then it will be big problems.

NZ behind Ethiopa for children’s rights – yea right

The Herald reports:

A European advocacy group has ranked New Zealand 158th out of 165 countries on children’s rights.

Children’s Commissioner Andrew Becroft said the ranking was “a wake-up call” for New Zealand to protect children better from abuse and neglect and to give children a say on new laws and policies.

“There is a startlingly weak commitment in New Zealand to factoring in children’s voices into our policymaking,” he said.

But Canterbury University political scientist Professor Bronwyn Hayward, who specialises in child and youth politics, said the new index was “the most bonkers ranking I’ve ever seen”.

“There is no way we could compare the situation facing children in Ethiopia, where I have just been, it’s a completely different context from the situation facing children in South Auckland, for example,” she said.

Ethiopia is ranked 137th on child rights, ahead of New Zealand. The rankings are topped by Portugal, Norway and Switzerland.

The list, published yesterday by the Amsterdam-based Kids Rights Foundation, measures 23 indicators in five fields.

Bonkers is a good word for it. The rankings fail the common sense test.

According to this index NZ dropped from 45th last year to 158th. Well as nothing really changed in NZ, that again just shows how bonkers the index is.

Almost as bad as New Zealand is the UK in 156th place. If it is such a hell hole, why do so many people try to move there with their kids?

You’ll be pleased to know that countries that ranked higher than NZ were Venezuela in 71th place where the kids are starving.

Also higher than NZ is Iran at 100th, Zimbabwe at 126th and Iraq at 148th.

Brady dead

The Herald reports:

One of the world’s most notorious killers, Moors Murderer Ian Brady, has died in the UK at the age of 79.

Brady and Myra Hindley tortured and murdered five children in the Yorkshire Moors in the 1960s.

They later confessed to two other murders.

Hindley died in prison in 2002.

Brady’s death was confirmed by the NHS.

A truly evil man. The trial judge described him as a sadistic killer of the utmost depravity and wicked beyond belief. May his death bring some closure to the families of his victims.

If there is a hell, Ian Brady is beyond doubt now in it.

Corbyn says WWII was last just war

The Telegraph reports:

Britain has not fought a just conflict since the Second World War, Jeremy Corbyn has said, insisting he would only authorise military action as a “genuine last resort”.

Not a surprising statement from the man who cheered on the IRA and Hamas.

I would have said the following three wars were clearly just conflicts:

  • Korean War – triggered by North Korea invading South Korea. So Corbyn seems to think North Korea should have been allowed to enslave South Korea. Note the UN authorised the allied response.
  • Falklands – Argentina invaded British territory. Corbyn thinks the locals should have been left to Argentinian rule.
  • Gulf War – Iraq invaded Kuwait. Again Corbyn seems to think the aggressor country should have been rewarded by being allowed to keep Kuwait. Again was authorised by UN Security Council.

Corbyn says he is not a pacifist, but if he thinks there has been no just war since WWII, then he seems to be splitting hairs.

No lobby group should be a charity

The Herald reports:

Family First is set to lose its charitable status, the Herald has exclusively learned.

The group was first notified by the Charities Registration Board in 2013 that its charitable status was in danger.

That was because the group advocated a controversial point of view, that was seen as lobbying for a political purpose.

The decision was challenged in court, and in 2015 the High Court ordered the Board to reconsider its decision.

The High Court decision did not rule on whether or not Family First was a charity.

The Herald understands that decision has now been reconsidered, and that the formal notification process is underway to tell Family First it is being deregistered as a charity.

My view has consistently been that lobby groups should not be charities, and that Family First is primarily a lobby group. So this is the right decision in my opinion. However Greenpeace and FIZZ and Alcohol Action should also not be registered charities.

Some lobby groups also do charitable work, but this is not the bulk of what they do. In those cases, they could do what the Sensible Sentencing Trust did and effectively split their organisation into two parts – one that does victim support and one that does advocacy. The former is a charity while the latter is not (off memory).

To my mind one has to look at what the organisation does overall. Take Greenpeace and Forest  & Bird, Both are environmental or conservation groups that are politically aligned to the left and active politically.

However Greenpeace does almost no actual conservation or environmental work. ALmost 100% of what they do is political activism. That is why they should not be a charity.

Forest and Bird however does actual conservation work, as well as their lobbying. They remove weeds, they plant native plants, they help with pest control, they protect water catchment area etc. So I have no issues with Forest and Bird being a charity, but it is outrageous if Greenpeace continue to have charitable status if Family First is not eligible. They should both be eligible or neither be eligible.

Why did it take so long to expose Harrison?

Stuff reports:

Fraudster Joanne Harrison tried arranging a night-time “clandestine rendezvous” in her Ministry of Transport office while she was under investigation.

The ministry has also confirmed there were multiple concerns raised about Harrison long before she fled the country last year, in the wake of her $725,000 fraud.

NZ First leader Winston Peters has now called for Harrison’s former ministry boss Martin Matthews – who is currently the auditor-general, to stand down. Other Opposition MPs have also raised concerns.

I hate to say it, but Winston may have a point.

I don’t think you can blame Matthews because fraud happened in his department per se. No agency can be fraud proof. And from all accounts he did the right thing once it was confirmed she was a fraudster,

But the issue is whether warning signals were ignored and good systems were in place, so she would have been detected earlier. And the signs are that they were not. And this is not a good look for someone who is now the Auditor-General.

Matthews, who is overseas, said last night he stood by previous assertions that he had handled the saga decisively, and investigated it thoroughly.

He did. But the issue is whether it should have been detected earlier.  Here’s the stuff I’m concerned about:

  • Harrison was able to authorise payments to entities and no internal checks made about services provided
  • Concerns about the contracts were raised two years earlier but not acted on
  • Staff concerns over her recommending her husband for a role were not followed up properly
  • She hired a friend as a staffer who got paid for 10 months and it seems never turned up to the office
  • She had been investigated for fraud in Australia and the Australian Federal Police contacted the Ministry in 2014 about her and Matthews just accepted her word that the matter did not directly relate to her
  • In 2013 staff raised concerns that she gave out work without contracts

Again Matthews acted properly and well once they were sure she was a fraudster. But it looks like there were multiple missed opportunities to detect her fraud at an earlier stage. If an overseas police department contact you about a manager, you should not just take their word for it that they have done nothing wrong.

If Matthews was simply the CEO of another government agency, I would say this one issue should not blot his record. But the role of Auditor-General is different. This is about systems and checks and robust process. And it is clear that this did not happen on his watch at Transport.

Trump asked FBI to drop Flynn probe

The Washington Post reports:

President Trump asked the FBI to drop its probe into former national security adviser Michael Flynn and urged former FBI director James B. Comey instead to pursue reporters in leak cases, according to associates of Comey who have seen private notes he wrote recounting the conversation.

According to the notes written by Comey following a February meeting with the president, Trump brought up the counterintelligence investigation into Flynn and urged Comey to drop the probe in the wake of the national security adviser’s resignation.

The conversation between Trump and Comey took place after a national security meeting. The president asked to speak privately to the FBI director, and the others left the room, according to the Comey associates, who, like other officials, spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to reveal internal discussions.

“I hope you can let this go,’’ Trump said, according to the Comey notes, which were described by the associates. Comey’s written account of the meeting is two pages long and highly detailed, the associates said.

I doubt even this will be enough to convince Trump fanatics that he simply does not have the right judgment or temperament to be President. Because Trump is the enemy of their enemy, they will defend him regardless. You wonder what he would have to do for them to actually change their minds.

For those about to defend Trump, imagine this happened in New Zealand. Say Helen Clark’s national security adviser had just resigned for lying about his contacts with (say) China. And that adviser was being investigated by the Police.

Then suddenly Clark sacked the Commissioner of Police, and it transpired that a few weeks earlier she had urged the Commissioner to stop the investigation into her former adviser.

Would you be defending Clark, as you do Trump, and saying she did nothing wrong. That it was all the fault of the Police for investigating a bogus allegation, and that the Prime Minister has every right to ask the Police to stop an investigation and then sack the Commissioner when he carries on? Or would you be demanding Clark resign?

We all have a natural tendency to be softer on the “team” we support. But when that tendency becomes an obsession and you can see no evil and hear no evil, you become what you claim to oppose.

34,000 new homes for Auckland

Amy Adams announced:

The Government today has announced a Crown land and building programme that will see tens of thousands of new houses built in Auckland over the next decade.

Social Housing Minister Amy Adams announced that the Government’s Crown Building Project will replace 8300 old, rundown houses in Auckland with 34,000 brand new purpose-built houses over 10 years. 24,300 of these will be built by Housing New Zealand through their Auckland Housing Programme.

Over the next ten years, the Crown Building Project will deliver around:

  • 13,500 newly built social houses
  • 20,600 new affordable and market homes.

“This is a significant undertaking for the Government, for taxpayers, and for our Social Housing reforms. It’s the equivalent of three and a half new houses on every street across Auckland,” Ms Adams says.

“These houses will be for our most vulnerable families, for first-home buyers, and for the wider market. We are building more social houses for Aucklanders and helping provide a pathway into independent, affordable housing.

“The Crown Building Project is the Government making the most out of the available residential land it owns to meet Auckland’s social housing needs.

“These 34,000 new houses are a substantial redevelopment and construction programme on a scale not seen since the 1950s.

This is a huge development and will basically see houses built on every piece of land available to the Government in Auckland.

It is a credible plan based on actual land available and building plans. Labour’s promise to build 100,000 houses in 10 years is a made up number not based on any actual assessment of land availability. As we saw in Lower Hutt they promised to build 400 homes on 1.7 hectares of land which is one home per 42 square metres!

In Auckland the reality is Labour has opposed almost every major new housing development. They fought against the Tamaki development and voted against the Point England development.

“Our plan to build 34,000 new homes over the next ten years has been carefully scoped and designed, is fully funded, and builders are on site getting on with the programme already.”

Anyone who claims they will do more than that needs to identify how they will build on land they don’t own.

Guest Post: Maori prisons are not the answer

A guest post by David Garrett:

Maori prisons are not the answer

Lately Uncle Tom Cobley and all have opined about the causes of the high rate of Maori criminal recidivism. The Waitangi Tribunal says it’s the government’s fault. The Maori Party says it’s down to “institutional racism”, and of course, a lack of funding – of their pet causes of course. The Labour Party says  it’s all  the fault of the Corrections Department, which is “failing Maori”. The latest brilliant idea is dedicated Maori  prisons run on Maori lines. If they come to pass they will be a dismal failure, just like all the other ideas promoted or at least endorsed by Kim Workman, former head of prisons, who resigned in disgrace after his pet project He Ara Hou failed spectacularly in the 1990’s.

Why am I so confident in my pessimism?  For many reasons. Firstly, the proposal is that a Maori prison would essentially be an entire prison run the same way as the Maori focus units which already exist in prisons.  Such units are – apparently – run according to tikanga Maori, and embracing “Maori values”, whatever they might be ( I don’t know – I am not a Maori… Not even a 1/64th one). The big problem is that not only are Maori focus units ineffective, but the recidivism rate among Maori graduates of may in fact be  HIGHER than the prison population as a whole.

Many readers will, quite understandably, ask for evidence for that claim. My response is that  winkling clear answers  out of Corrections and Justice is proving very difficult, with obfuscation and dissembling regarding my OIA requests. But according to a number of sources within the prison and justice  systems, that is the reality: those who spend time in Maori focus units before release  tend to reoffend at a higher rate than those who have served their sentences in the general population.

So how did we get to the unarguably lamentable situation where Maori are grossly overrepresented, both in offending rates and in the prison population? Was this always the case due to some defect or trait within the Maori people? The answer to that  of course is a resounding NO. Go back to the period  before the 1960’s and Maori offending rates were LOWER than that of pakeha. It was not until the 1960’s, and the Maori drift away from their  tribal areas to the cities that they began to catch up. It was not until the 1980’s and 90’s that the significant overrepresentation of Maori within the prison population really took off. Why was that?

Firstly let’s deal with and dismiss the old canard of racism, both institutional and otherwise, as an explanation. Sadly, until relatively  recently, New Zealand was in fact a very racist country, although much of that racism was hidden and relatively benign and condescending, rather than the overt segregation and  the violence of beatings and lynchings seen in much of the southern USA.

I am old enough to remember To Let ads which read “No dogs; no Maoris”.  Sadly, I am old enough to remember “jokes” like “What’s black and lives up a tree? A Maori waiting for a state house.” I am old enough to remember cringing when a farmer referred, in his presence, to the  “Maori boy” – a man in his thirties – who had come to do some welding on his cowshed.

None of that would happen today,  when the National Anthem is sung in Maori first, where every school has a kapa haka group, and where there are proudly assertive  “Maori” who are as blond and blue eyed as me. To supposedly be Maori is now fashionable, not something to try to hide, as Winston Peters once did, claiming he was Italian rather than Maori. We are as a country, unarguably much less racist than we were 40, 50, or even  25  years ago.

So what’s changed? For a start, as Greg Newbold has pointed out, a large proportion  of Maori in prisons are gang members or associates, and the majority of gang members are Maori. Dame Tariana Turia has said that gangs are “just another form of whanau” –  what she doesn’t acknowledge  of course is that if your “whanau” is the Mongrel Mob, and  if that’s all you’ve got,  that’s a terrible indictment on those who are your real whanau. And therein, in my view, lies a great part of the answer.

Forty years ago, the typical Maori family lived next door to me,  or up the road,  in the predominantly Maori state housing block I grew up in. Mr Tuhaka – whose daughters are now both university educated professionals – drove earthmoving machinery for the Ministry of Works, and spent his weekends either working in his vege  garden – which took up the entire back section of the house, and sometimes also the front lawn – or making and  checking his eel traps, and drying the contents of them  on the clothesline behind the house. Mrs Tuhaka, like my mother, didn’t work outside the home.

The Tuhakas were unusual only in that they had just two children rather than  the six or  seven that their friends the Te Hau’s had. When the Te Hau’s arrived on a Friday night or Saturday morning, we knew we were in for a sleepless weekend as loud partying would ensue for the duration of their visit. But that was only now and again.

Whether the Te Hau’s had been there or not,  on Monday morning, at 6.30, we would hear Mr Tuhaka’s old V8 being started and left to warm up – this was 1971 – while he had his breakfast and went off to work. At 8.15 or so the  Tuhaka girls would emerge, clothes spotlessly clean and frankly, dressed a little better than we were, and we would all go off to school.

What is the typical Maori family now? Sadly, I suspect it  is a solo mother and her latest “partner”, and half a dozen kids, none of them his biological children. No-one in the household  will work because the state has generously not only supported but arguably encouraged their lifestyle with easily obtained benefits and grants. There will be excessive alcohol and drug use, and the partying will be ubiquitous, rather than now and again, as when the Te Hau’s came to visit our neighbours.

There will be little parental control of or even interest in the kids. There will probably be violence, either visited upon the kids, the mother, or both.  Again as Greg Newbold has pointed out, for every bashed to death Maori child like Moko Rangitoheriri and James Whakaruru, there will be 100  kids who survive the violence to  become the gang members and criminals of tomorrow. Their “values” will be violence as a solution to problems, callousness, cruelty, and lack of respect for societal norms, because that is all they have known. By time Corrections gets hold of them it is far too late to change anything. And herein lies the answer to the problem of Maori recidivism: it has nothing to do with ‘failings’ in the corrections system, the problem lies with failings within the families of modern Maori.

I hasten to add that there are many exceptions to this terrible parody of a whanau. My good friend Northland Wahine, a regular contributor here, lives with her youngest son and her sister, and whatever foster children Wahine has generously taken in from time to time. As I write this, she tells me the foster kids are waiting forlornly for their parents to come and pick them up, while the parents make excuses for why they cannot have them on Mother’s Day.

Both of the  adults at Wahine’s place have jobs. All the children in the house go to school. The children all attend after school activities and play sport on the weekends. Wahine’s son is a delightful well mannered and intelligent  boy whose father plays a big part in his life.  I can say with great confidence that HE will neither end up bashed to death nor will he ever become  a gang member.

So what is the answer to Maori offending, and their dreadful overrepresentation in prisons? The answer lies in the atrocious conditions in which many young Maori spend their early lives – in a Once were Warriors environment, corrupted by chronic neglect, abuse, violence and unemployed, drug-addled, drunken role models. Not all young Maori experience these conditions, but a shockingly large proportion of them do. As Newbold demonstrates in his recent book “Crime, Law and Justice in New Zealand”, the results are clearly visible: in the appalling number of Maori children admitted to hospital with adult-inflicted injuries, or killed by adults before they reach the age of 14.  The only real answers can come from Maori themselves: Maori  offending and  recidivism is a Maori problem, and perhaps only they can fix it.  

One thing is for sure: the problem will not be solved by blaming it on the corrections system and by repeated bleating that the government isn’t doing enough. By the time the criminals – Maori or otherwise –  reach adult prison it is too late to do anything very much, except wait until the offending years have passed, usually by age 45 or so. The answer lies way earlier, in childhood, but changing the future of Maori children  requires making some very hard and very unpopular decisions. Decisions no government is likely to make any time soon.

Little’s house value increase would have been less than the interest on the mortgage

I blogged yesterday on how Andrew Little’s outrage at his old house increasing in value from $315,000 to $830,000 over 17 years was odd as it was a compound increase of just 5.9% a year.

Also noteworthy was that it increased 81% under Labour and 48% under National.

But I got interested in whether this house would even break even if it had been purchased by some smart property investor who financed it entirely through lending.

Well if you borrowed the $315,000 and paid standard mortgage rates each year from 2000 to 2017, then the amount you would owe the bank would be $936,000 so after you get the $830,000 sale, you are $100,000 down.

Of course in reality you would pay back some principal over that time, but that has an opportunity cost so the fair comparison is total financing vs total increase.

So in reality the average 5.9% increase in house value would not even cover the cost of interest on the initial house if financed through borrowing.  Now you would get rental income from the house for 17 years but as you can see the gain would be from the rental income, not from the increase value.

The future, but when?

Stuff reports:

No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.

Prof Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are 10 times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1m miles.

I’d be surprised if it happens this quickly. I think the future painted is quite likely, but eight years is not that long a time-frame.

Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.

Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a “mass stranding of existing vehicles”. The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.

If this is the future, it is a good one. I will quite happily not own a car if I can order a self-driving vehicle within minutes for a reasonable cost.

It is an existential threat to Ford, General Motors, and the German car industry. They will face a choice between manufacturing EVs in a brutal low-profit market, or reinventing themselves as self-drive service companies, variants of Uber and Lyft.

They are in the wrong business. The next generation of cars will be “computers on wheels”. Google, Apple, and Foxconn have the disruptive edge, and are going in for the kill. Silicon Valley is where the auto action is, not Detroit, Wolfsburg, or Toyota City.

The shift, according to Prof Seba, is driven by technology, not climate policies. Market forces are bringing it about with a speed and ferocity that governments could never hope to achieve.

“We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” Prof Seba said. “Internal combustion engine vehicles will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs.”

The “tipping point” will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 200 miles and electric car prices in the US drop to US$30,000 (NZ$43,651). By 2022 the low-end models will be down to US$20,000 (NZ$29,100). After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it.

Market forces are much more powerful that government policies.

Experts will argue over Prof Seba’s claims. His broad point is that multiple technological trends are combining in a perfect storm. The simplicity of the EV model is breath-taking. The Tesla S has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car. “Maintenance is essentially zero. That is why Tesla is offering infinite-mile warranties. You can drive it to the moon and back and they will still warranty it,” Prof Seba said.

Self-drive “vehicles on demand” will be running at much higher levels of daily use than today’s cars and will last for 500,000 to 1m miles each.

It has long been known that EVs are four times more efficient than petrol or diesel cars, which lose 80pc of their power in heat. What changes the equation is the advent of EV models with the acceleration and performance of a Lamborghini costing five or 10 times less to buy, and at least 10 times less to run.

“The electric drive-train is so much more powerful. The gasoline and diesel cars cannot possibly compete,” Prof Seba said. The parallel is what happened to film cameras – and to Kodak – once digital rivals hit the market. It was swift and brutal. “You can’t compete with zero marginal costs,” he said.

The future is exciting.