USA Today report:

A jury in Charlottesville, Va., found Friday that Rolling Stone magazine and its reporter defamed a school administrator over a now-debunked article about a purported gang rape at a University of Virginia fraternity.

After some 20 hours of deliberation, the 10-person jury found reporter Sabrina Rubin Erdely responsible for defamation with malice on six claims by Nicole Eramo, and Rolling Stone magazine and Wenner Media responsible for defaming her on three claims.

Pleased to see accountability for such a disgraceful breach of journalistic ethics where they ran a story alleging serious criminal behaviour without any verification at all.

Labour’s new policy says:

Under Labour’s Ready for Work policy, all young people who have been on the Jobseeker’s Allowance in the Work Ready category for six months will be offered full-time employment for six months on environmental and community projects.

So six months paid work.

Ready for Work jobs will pay at least the minimum wage.

That’s $15.25 an hour for 40 hours for 26 weeks which is $15,860 per person.

With an estimated 10,000 participants per year, Ready for Work will cost $60m a year.

At $15,860 per person and 10,000 participants that would be $158 million not $60 million. And this is before you even include any costs of administering the scheme which would be huge.

Labour’s credibility on economic costings remains woeful.

Even if you take account of the current benefit payments of $156 a week, that still leaves a additional cost of around $120 million a year – before any admin costs.

National has generally done a good job of refreshing the caucus and getting some talented people into Parliament.

But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a challenge ahead.

When a safe seat comes up, once upon a time you’d have a dozen credible candidates compete for it, and all of the final five would be high calibre candidates.

Party members in Pakuranga and East Coast Bays, both seats with huge majorities, are saying that there isn’t a huge line up of aspiring candidates.

Why when the party is at 48% in the polls, are there not a dozen people seeking the safe seats coming up?

Some possible reasons people have floated with me:

• A perception of a gender/race bias with white males feeling that it isn’t a fair fight.
• A selection process too tough on those with family/mortgage responsibilities
• A party too shy in its shoulder tapping
• Does the selection by locals system deter “stars” who have not been involved in the electorate?
• Working 60 to 70 hours a week for a $150,000 salary not appealing to those who are already earning way more than that

The Herald reports:

Labour has proposed allowing beneficiaries to meet their work obligations by doing volunteer work instead of looking for a paid job.

The proposal is one of more than 60 recommendations in Labour’s ‘Future of Work’ Commission report which was released by Finance Spokesman Grant Robertson today.

It proposed that the Government acknowledge volunteer work alongside paid employment.

“Beneficiaries would be able to fulfil their working obligations if they chose to do volunteer work. People currently expected to be searching for paid employment could instead do volunteer work for the same number of hours they are obligated to be in paid employment.”

Wow is this a bad policy.

Doing volunteer work is a good thing. I do lots of it. So do most people. But it should not be a choice of working or volunteering – but both.

Labour is saying that people can stay on a benefit for as long as they want, so long as they volunteer work (will canvassing for Labour count?).

They miss the point that children who grow up in a household with no adults in employment do worse on pretty much every statistic there is. Welfare is meant to be temporary.

The Herald reports:

Pay-per-view prices for Joseph Parker’s heavyweight world title fight are set to go sky high, with punters and pubs expected to cop the fallout from Auckland Council’s refusal on ratepayer funding.

The Herald on Sunday understands from a well-placed source that the pay-TV price for Parker’s fight against Andy Ruiz Jr next month could now be set between $70 and $100.

That’s could be more than twice the price punters will pay to see global star Manny Pacquiao take on Jessie Vargas today, and a significant increase on the $39.95 fans were charged to watch Parker’s last fight against Alexander Dimitrenko a month ago.

It would also be way above the $49.95 some forked out to watch Parker face Carlos Takam in May – the fight which triggered public backlash over pay-TV prices being too high and controversy over illegal online streaming, as irritated fans tried to dodge costs.

And it doesn’t stop there. In what would outrage Kiwi sports fans, pubs and bars might have to resort to entry fees in order to try and claw back the inflated charges they could face to publicly screen the event. It’s understood those costs could rise from around $1400 to $2000-$2500.

Owner of The Fox sports bar in Auckland’s viaduct, Brett MacLean, said the price to screen Parker’s last fight already jumped significantly. Further costs would mean he’d have to consider charging at the door.

I don’t see the problem. Viewers should pay to see the fight, rather than ratepayers who don’t want to see it.

The price will be set by market forces. The promoter will charge as much as they can, in order to maximise revenue. If they charge too much, then they’ll actually earn less revenue as fewer will pay.

Andrew Bolt blogs on a news story reporting:

The video shows CFMEU ­assistant state secretary for Western Australia Graham Pallot and national president Joe McDonald telling workers they are increasing their sway over Labor as a ­result of their numbers.

“The reality is we all know how we’ve felt for a long time about the ALP but what we’re actually going to do is take ownership and ­responsibility of the ALP,” Mr Pallot says. “We’re getting influence in the ALP and that’s how we’re going to get in there. We’re not going to wait for the politicians to come and do it for us — we’re going to go in there, with your support, we’re going to put politicians in that are representative of the working class.

“And to be quite frank, if they don’t, we’re going to remove that politician and we’re going to ­replace them with someone that does stand up for the values we want — that is going to improve WorkSafe, that is going to bring in laws, that is going to get rid of the ABCC.

The ABCC is the organisation that fought against union corruption on building sites. Labor is fightign hard against it on behalf of the corrupt Australian unions.

The Herald reports:

Labour leader Andrew Little has proposed a tax on employers who rely on workers from overseas instead of training local workers saying it was a way to make sure businesses were “doing their bit”.

The ‘training levy’ would be imposed on businesses in areas of skills shortages, such as chefs, construction, IT and tour guides where migrant workers are used.

However, companies that could prove they were already actively training New Zealanders for such jobs would be exempt.

So a restaurant will be hit with Labour’s new tax unless they can prove they were actively training.

There is a skill shortage of Labour press secretaries. Will Labour have to pay Labour’s new tax because they don’t provide training for press secretaries?

Stuff reports:

Asylum seekers who attempt to reach Australia by boat will never be allowed to enter the country under new laws, even if they are genuine refugees and seek to come as tourists decades later.

Legislation to be introduced by Australian Immigration Minister Peter Dutton will apply a lifetime ban to all adults detained at the Manus Island or Nauru detention centres from July 19, 2013 – including those who have chosen to return home. Children who were brought by their parents or unaccompanied would be exempt.

The government has long maintained that asylum seekers who come by boat would never be settled in Australia but the introduction of a lifetime ban on all visas, including for tourism, is tougher than expected.

Immediately seeking to pressure the opposition into supporting the policy, the government will seek to backdate the laws to July 19, 2013 when former Labor prime minister Kevin Rudd declared that anyone seeking to come to Australia without a visa would never settle here.

It’s very hard line but beyond doubt will be effective. From 2009 to 2013 around 50,000 people tried to reach Australia by boat and 1,194 of them drowned.

In 2015 and 2016 there has been basically no boats and no drownings. And the populations in the Manus and Nauru detention centres has dropped from 2,500 in 2013 to around 1,300 today.

The Financial Post reports:

The Port of Hamilton seems like one sprawling, muddy construction site on a wet and windy day in late October. While a ship is loaded with grain at the Richardson International Ltd. terminal, trucks line up to have their loads of Ontario-grown wheat tested for quality.

Next door, construction of a new $50-million grain terminal by G3 Canada Ltd. is well underway, with operations set to begin before the 2017 harvest. And down the road at Parrish and Heimbecker Ltd.’s terminal, instantly recognizable because of its two flesh-coloured storage domes, workers lay cement bricks for a new $45-million flour mill — the first such mill to be built in Ontario in 75 years.

More than $200 million has been invested in agricultural handling facilities in Hamilton since 2008, marking a renaissance of sorts for the city known as Steeltown even decades after the metal industry began slumping.

Like any economic rebirth, it is hard to point to one single catalyst. But the privatization of the Winnipeg-based Canadian Wheat Board four years ago and 2,000 kilometres away certainly stands out as one.

The upshot of that controversial decision is a rapidly changing grain transportation network that is affecting Canadian farmers, grain handlers, railways and ports from the West Coast to the Arctic and the St. Lawrence Seaway. And it’s big business: Canada’s grain and oilseed exports were worth $5.9 billion in 2014, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

This year’s bumper wheat crop, expected to exceed 30 million tonnes for just the second time in 25 years, will be a key test of whether the rapidly evolving supply chain has adapted to a free-market world after decades of being hamstrung by a government-backed market monopoly that was established partly because Canada is one of the most difficult transportation markets on Earth.

All of this came one year after the dismantling of the Canadian Wheat Board, which since 1935 had held sole responsibility for marketing Western Canadian wheat and barley and played a key coordinating role in their transportation.

“The whole system started to back up,” said Ron Bonnett, president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture. “We’ve really been pushing to expand export markets, but if we get a bottleneck in the railroads, we end up with a situation like we had in 2013.”

The end result was a huge backlog that left grain rotting in storage and cost Western farmers an estimated $5 billion in lost or deferred revenue.

Angry farmers in 2014 took their grievances to the federal government, which responded with minimum grain-hauling requirements for the railways and fines for non-compliance.

Two years later, those mandatory minimums have been removed and many stakeholders say the Canadian grain-hauling system is slowly but surely changing for the better as the supply chain adjusts to the end of the Wheat Board’s tight control over marketing and transportation.

They’re going through what we did 30 years ago!

“The CWB’s mandate was to pay farmers a base price for their grain, identify markets where the grain could be sold, negotiate the best price, deliver the product, issue advance cheques, and make final payments after the crop was sold,” David Emerson wrote in his CTA review. “If the wheat market went up, farmers captured the profits, and if the market declined, the government absorbed the loss.”

We called that SMPs.

The privatization of the Wheat Board let the private sector negotiate directly with farmers and choose the best route to get their crops to export markets.

The response by grain handlers was immediate. Three companies — Viterra Inc. (which was acquired by Glencore PLC for $6.1 billion in March 2012), Richardson International and Cargill Inc. — handle approximately 75 per cent of Canada’s grain exports, and all three have invested in significant new terminal capacity since the Wheat Board lost its monopoly on Aug. 1, 2012.

A lot of investment.

The Press reported:

French champagnes, $800 red wines, expensive cognac and 18-year-old whisky have all gone down the drain at the Christchurch Police Station.

About $20,000 worth of confiscated booze was tipped out on Thursday, made up of 52 litres of spirits, 154 litres of wine and 137 litres of beer.

Sergeant Jon Harris confiscated the 343 litres of booze, in 493 bottles, in June this year after visiting a Christchurch restaurant displaying alcohol for sale without a licence.

French champagnes, $800 red wines, expensive cognac and 18-year-old whisky have all gone down the drain at the Christchurch Police Station.

About $20,000 worth of confiscated booze was tipped out on Thursday, made up of 52 litres of spirits, 154 litres of wine and 137 litres of beer.

Sergeant Jon Harris confiscated the 343 litres of booze, in 493 bottles, in June this year after visiting a Christchurch restaurant displaying alcohol for sale without a licence.

Pouring it down the drain seems daft, and about a PR stunt.

Why not sell or auction the alcohol? Have the proceeds go to a victims of crime fund or something. This isn’t an illegal product. It is just the outfit selling it wasn’t licensed.

The haul included some “pretty exclusive alcohol”, he said.

“There was some $800 bottles of red wine which were pretty painful to tip out.”

So why did they?

Also they have upset the Council:

It was tipped into a vehicle wash bay drain, which led to a 1000 litre holding tank connected to the sewerage system, but the Christchurch City Council on Friday ordered the alcohol’s removal.

“The council however does not accept this type of raw (undiluted) waste into the sewer network and we have notified the NZ Police to have their tanks sucked out by a waste disposal company immediately where it can be treated off site appropriately. The police have agreed and have actioned this immediately,” council three waters and waste head John Mackie said.

So maybe think next time before you do a PR stunt.

538 reports:

There’s been a potential breach of Hillary Clinton’s electoral firewall. And it’s come in New Hampshire, a state that we said a couple of weeks agocould be a good indicator of a Donald Trump comeback because of its large number of swing voters. Three new polls of New Hampshire released today showed a tied race, Trump ahead by 1 percentage point and Trump up by 5. There are some qualifications here: The poll showing Trump with a 5-point lead is from American Research Group, a pollster that’s had its issues over the years. And other recent polls of New Hampshire still show a Clinton ahead. But the race has clearly tightened in New Hampshire, with Clinton leading by only 2 to 3 percentage points in our forecast.

If Clinton lost New Hampshire but won her other firewall states, each candidate would finish with 269 electoral votes, taking the election to the House of Representatives. Or maybe not — if Clinton also lost the 2nd Congressional District of Maine, where polls show a tight race and where the demographics are unfavorable to her, Trump would win the Electoral College 270-268, probably despite losing the popular vote.

Couldn’t Clinton win Nevada to make up for the loss of New Hampshire? Or Florida? Or North Carolina? Well … of course she could. All those states remain highly competitive. The point, as we’ve said before, is just that Clinton’s so-called firewall is not very robust. If you’re only ahead in exactlyenough states to win the Electoral College, and you’d lose if any one of them gets away, that’s less of a firewall and more of a rusting, chain-link fence.

So let’s look at the probability in each state in their polls plus model.

Beyond 95% margin of error for Trump

1. Wyoming 3
2. Nebraska 3rd 1
3. Oklahoma 7
4. West Virginia 5
5. North Dakota 3
6. Idaho 4
7. Alabama 9
8. Arkansas 6
9. Kentucky 8
10. Nebraska state 2
11. Nebraska 1st 1
12. South Dakota 3
13. Louisiana 8
14. Montana 3
15. Mississippi 6
16. Kansas 6
17. Tennessee 11
18. Indiana 11
19. Missouri 10
20. Texas 38

So that is 145 in the bag.

Now how about those he is at 75% to 95% to win

1. South Carolina 92% 9
2. Georgia 86% 16
3. Utah 86% 6
4. Alaska 79% 3
5. Arizona 76% 11

Another 45 brings him to 190.

Then those at 51% to 74% to win

1. Iowa 72% 6
2. Ohio 70% 18
3. Nebraska 2nd 63% 1
4. North Carolina 55% 15
5. Florida 55% 29
6. Maine 2nd 55% 1

Another 70 makes it 260. However North Carolina and Florida are far from certain and if he fails to win either, he is out.

Now those he is at 26% to 50% to win

1. Nevada 49.9% 6
2. New Hampshire 39% 4
3. Colorado 26% 9
4. Pennsylvania 26% 20

He needs 10 more votes so he needs to win Pennsylvania or two of the other three. The most likely is Nevada and New Hampshire.

So overall they now have him at 36% on all three of their models.

Stuff reports:

Green Party co-leaders Metiria Turei and James Shaw were invited onto the stage at the opening of Labour’s annual conference in Auckland in a symbolic sign of the closer cooperation between the two Left-leaning parties.

Shaw was also invited to address the conference in a cameo speech on the first day of the three day conference.

And Shaw was a hit, getting more applause than Little it seems.

James Shaw’s speech is really stirring the audience. If applause & laughs are a gauge, he was a bigger hit than Andrew Little.

— Andrea Vance (@avancenz) November 4, 2016

And they seem worried over Gareth Morgan:

And he said Labour could rely on the Greens.

In a side swipe at the new Gareth Morgan-led party, he said: “and we quite like cats”.

Labour can rely on the Greens, but can the Greens rely on Labour? It is well known that Winston has said it is non negotiable that the Greens not be part of any Government he supports – not even Under Secretaries.

On current polling, if support for Labour and the Greens are combined the two parties would be competitive with National. But both sides would rely on NZ First to govern.

Actually on current polling Labour and Greens are 10% behind and National could form a Government again with ACT and United Future.

I’ve blogged at Curia the latest Roy Morgan poll. As usual it has bounced around a lot.

Went to see Alexander Sparrow’s The President at Bats Theatre last night.

I was surprised by how well Sparrow had managed to transform himself to look like Trump. Despite the 40 or so year age difference, Sparrow really did look, and talk, the part.

The setting is Trump’s locker room in The White House. He wants the audience to write a book about his victory, which he proceeds to tell us about in his bathrobe.

It’s a dark comedy. You learn how he became President. I won’t give too much away, except to say it involves the Second Amendment.

Sparrow captures well Trump’s unique manner of speaking, with the repetition and his braggadocious style. Trump has said so many outrageous things that you don’t need to be too creative.

However the story he tells is new. It doesn’t just involve the US but also New Zealand and Australia. One of the lines that got the most laughs was when Trump says “I hear Australia has a problem with illegal immigrants also, but down there they call them Aboriginals for some reason”.

You learn Trump’s views on everything from the military to competition.

And all done while gradually Trump changes from his dressing gown to his suit.

A very enjoyable and topical play. The initial broadcast went on a bit too long, but otherwise was a very punchy 60 minutes.

I understand it is sold out tonight, but tickets still available for the final showing on Saturday for those keen.

Rating: ***1/2 (out of *****)

Stuff reports:

Former Palmerston North mayor Jono Naylor is quitting Parliament after one term, saying he cannot see himself doing politics for another 16 years.

Naylor announced on Thursday he would not stand for the National Party in next year’s election.

He served on the Palmerston North City Council for six years, before being elected mayor of the city in 2007.

He made the step into national politics in 2014, standing as National’s candidate for the Palmerston North seat.

Pundits gave Naylor a good shot at taking the seat off Labour Party incumbent Iain-Lees Galloway, but he lost by 2212 votes.

He still got into Parliament, though, on the back of National’s massive win, ranked as number 51 on the party’s list.

Naylor acknowledged it was unusual for an MP to stand down after one term.

“I have just been reflecting on about 16 years standing for election every three years, or slightly more often on average, and just realised it is not necessarily what I wanted for the next 10 to 15 years of my life,” he said.

Mark Blumsky also retired after just one term. Part of this might be the challenge in going from an executive role to a non-executive one.

Most MPs would like to become a Minister. But timing has a lot to do with this. The best time to enter Parliament is when your party is in opposition, as you are likely to have enough experience to be a Minister once you enter Government.

But if you enter Parliament in your party’s third term of Government, you are unlikely to become a Minister during that Government, and then may have six to nine years of opposition also before you get a chance so could be 12 – 15 year wait.

The Herald reports:

Auckland ratepayers could throw hundreds of thousands of dollars towards Joseph Parker’s heavyweight title fight, which will take place in the city on December 10.

The boss of the council’s events arm, Brett O’Riley, yesterday confirmed Ateed “continues to be a part of discussions around this opportunity”.

In a statement he said Ateed was “not providing financial sponsorship directly to the fight” but continued to “look for opportunities to market and leverage Auckland on an international stage through world-class events like this”.

He did not say what form any financial assistance would take or whether it was in the order of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

“We will look at opportunities to market Auckland to an international audience, but what form this takes won’t be determined until the fight is confirmed to take place in Auckland.”

When Parker’s title fight against Mexican Andy Ruiz was first mooted for Auckland, O’Riley said Ateed “definitely intend to be a major partner” and contribute “hundreds of thousands of dollars” in cash and services.

So taxpayers are off the hook, but ratepayers may not be.

Some sporting events produce regional benefits. The Wellington Sevens are one. They get a huge influx of visitors – domestic and international.

Is anyone going to fly to Auckland to watch a boxing match between two people they probably have not heard of? If it was a title defence, then possibly. But this is fighting for a vacant title.

Auckland Mayor Phil Goff is happy to commit ratepayers’ money to the fight, subject to Ateed preparing a business case showing a return to Aucklanders.

Goff was in the ring at Manukau’s Vodafone Events Centre announcing Parker’s last fight against Alexander Dimitrenko on October 1. Goff, who was campaigning for the mayoralty at the time, said he was a guest of Vodafone, not Duco.

Goff said not everyone liked boxing, “but I think there is value in the sport”.

On the hustings, Goff promised to drive savings across council and restore public confidence in management of ratepayer money.

Possible ratepayer funding for the fight comes as the council is making “significant cuts” to the $65 million library budget and laying off more 50 library staff.

I guess if the Council funds it, then the Mayor and Councillors get free tickets to it!

The Herald reports:

Britain’s High Court brought government plans for leaving the European Union to a screeching halt Thursday, ruling that the prime minister can’t trigger the UK’s exit from the 28-nation bloc without a vote in Parliament.

The case is considered the most important constitutional matter in a generation. The Conservative government said it would go to the country’s Supreme Court to challenge the ruling, which, if upheld, could prevent it from starting exit talks with the EU by March 31 as planned.

It will be interesting if upheld on appeal.

Even if it stands, then Parliament has to vote on Brexit but most MPs will I am confident vote in line with the referendum result, even if they personally were opposed. To do otherwise would be very risky for them electorally.

Stuff reports:

The tradition of jumping off the Ngaruawahia rail bridge could be coming to an end.

Kids climbing on to the railway, lining up and taking turns bombing into the river below has been a summer activity in the small Waikato town for generations.

But the activity has been a safety concern for a number of years.

Community groups have been working together to spread the safety message and hopefully break the tradition. 

On Thursday, an event aimed at educating primary school kids about rail, road, water and animal safety was held.

About 250 children gathered at The Point in Ngaruawahia for the sessions.

The day included lessons from Civil Defence, Animal Control, road safety, St John, the fire brigade, police and KiwiRail.

Poor kids. An entire day of being lectured about safety. You’d want to jump off a bridge afterwards to cool off.

Zahcree Tumai, 12, said he learnt that a train is as fast as a cheetah but that wasn’t going to deter him from jumping from the bridge. 

Excellent. The key difference being a train won’t follow you off the bridge into the river!

Youth aide officer constable Peter Wiggins said it was an ongoing issue but he had noticed fewer kids taking the risk this year.

“Our view is looking at the long term thing. We want to get key messages out so they don’t become the next generation of bridge jumpers. 

Why not? Has there been any actual harm done by the bridge jumping?

The 2016 annual report of the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security is here. Some details:

• the NZSIS has effectively implemented the recommendations made in my provisional findings in new warrant applications of the same kind
• Inquiry into Tim Groser WTO bid – I expect to complete a public report shortly
• Inquiry into knowledge of CIA interrogation activities –  I hope to be able to report publicly by late 2016/early 2017.
• Inquiry into GCSB surveillance in South Pacific –  I will be able to release a public report in December 2016.
• During the reporting year my office reviewed 15 interception warrants and 30 access authorisations issued under s 15A of the GCSB Act during the year.
• Several Director’s authorisations which were signed off by the Director during the reporting year did not come to my attention until after 30 June. I will report on my review of those authorisations in the next annual report. I have discussed with the Bureau the need for prompt notification to my office of any future Director’s authorisations.
• Reviewed the 39 domestic intelligence and 18 foreign intelligence warrants issued during the reporting period under s 4A of the NZSIS Act.
• the Director notified me that she had issued an authorisation for urgent surveillance without a warrant under s 4ID(1) of the NZSIS Act.
• Two investigations related to cybersecurity activities and each involved collection of data beyond the scope of the intended activity and corresponding authorisation. The collection of excess data was unintentional and arose from technical attributes of the collection process: the excess data was isolated and deleted and steps taken to prevent recurrence.
• Overall, I certify that the Bureau has sound compliance procedures and systems in place.
• In early 2015 I raised a serious issue about whether certain NZSIS activity was lawful and, if not, how that was to be remedied. I raised the issue with the Director in June 2015 and provided the Director with detailed provisional findings on my view of the legality of the activity in August 2015. The NZSIS provided its first substantive response to the questions raised in March-April 2016 …  the time taken to engage with and resolve this significant issue is in itself a matter of concern.
• Overall, I conclude that some further work is required before I can assess NZSIS’s compliance procedures and systems as sound, but on the basis of the considerable progress made in this reporting year and the clear commitment of the organisation to maintain that momentum, I hope to be able to do so in my next annual report.

Overall the Inspector-General appears to be doing excellent work in monitoring the intelligence agencies and ensuring their compliance is up to scratch. There is obviously still work to be done, but it is pleasing that we get such a detailed (40 page) report. In previous years (pre 2009) the IGIS annual report was a sparse three to five pages.

Gareth Morgan has set up a political party. Was inevitable I suppose as he is an expert on everything.

It does not seem a very democratic party. The (initial) party leader unilaterally appoints the initial board and they hold office for whatever term the party leader determines. The party leader is also the chair of the board.

They do not seem to have any policies at this stage except they believe in opportunities for all.

Mr Marriner is the Rotorua LEC Chair.

As Whale points out, somewhat more offensive that what Paul Henry said.

This is what the map looks like based on 538’s polls plus projection. Trump now leads in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Arizona.

He needs one more state to win. He is 2.3% behind in New Hampshire, 3.0% in Colorado, 3.5% in Pennsylvania and 4.1% in Wisconsin and Michigan.

If Trump wins New Hampshire he wins exactly 270 electoral votes to 268 for Clinton.

He only leads by 0.8% in Maine’s 2nd district so a 269 each tie is not impossible.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com