Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2017:

1. Jacinda Ardern will be elected MP for Mt Albert in the by-election
2. No one from the 2014 National intake will be made a Minister before the election
3. The 2017 election will be at a later date (during the year) than the 2014 election
4. The second highest ranked male candidate on Labour’s list (excluding those in seats Labour is expected to win) will be Trevor Mallard
5. Winston Peters will poll higher than Andrew Little as Preferred PM in most polls in 2017
6. The 2016/17 year will end in a surplus of greater than $1 billion
7. The official cash rate will rise in 2017
8. National will poll higher than Labour and Greens combined in at least 90% of public polls
9. Shane Jones will stand for NZ First and be ranked in the top three on their list
10. Helen Clark will return to New Zealand to become Vice-Chancellor Auckland University
11. John Key will be knighted in the 2017 Queens’ Birthday Honours
12. Steven Joyce’s first Budget will deliver tax cuts
13. Labour will lose at least one of the six Maori seats they hold
14. Labour and Greens will do a “dirty” (their former terminology) deal in Ohariu
15. NZ First will get more votes on election night than the Greens
16. US President Donald Trump will visit New Zealand
17. Malcolm Turnbull will be rolled by his own caucus in 2017
18. The Greens will again declare more large donations than Labour in their annual return to the Electoral Commission
19. David Seymour’s euthanasia bill will be drawn from the ballot
20. Cameron Brewer will be selected as National’s Helensville candidate
    

A few people got very excited that Bill English said he wouldn’t describe himself as a feminist and further doesn’t quite know what it means.

This question is always a trap. If you answer yes then you will be given a long list of ways in which you don’t live up to feminist ideals, and if you answer no you will be condemned as not believing in equality.

Many people (including myself) define a feminist as someone who believes in equality for women. On that definition around 98% of the population is a feminist, which probably makes it not a particular meaningful definition.

Most people differentiate the two though. Danyl McL blogs on a poll from the UK:

When split out by gender, women were more likely to identify as feminist, with nine per cent using the label compared to four per cent of men.

But men were more supportive generally of equality between the sexes – 86 per cent wanted it for the women in their lives – compared to 74 per cent of women.

Sam Smethers, the charity’s chief executive, said: “The overwhelming majority of the public share our feminist values but don’t identify with the label. However the simple truth is if you want a more equal society for women and men then you are in fact a feminist.

So over 80% of people in the UK support equality for women but only 8% of women (and 4% of men) identify as a feminist. So Bill English falls into that category.

If your only criteria for being a feminist is supporting sexual equality, then Gareth Wilson points out:

My thought experiment when this comes up is the feminist trio Leni, Alice, and Tammy. Leni is proudly racist, and believes only white people are capable of civilisation. Alice is a radical libertarian who would let half the population starve if it would motivate the other half to work harder. Tammy is a devout Christian who sincerely believes you’ll go to Hell for having an abortion, or teaching evolution. But they all genuinely believe that women are equal to men, and deserve all the opportunities and privileges that men have. If you don’t believe all three are feminists, then your broad definition that you use to bully people into describing themselves as feminists isn’t actually what you think a feminist is.

Matthew Hooton also points out:

Anyone who thinks feminism is simply about equality should have a quick re-read of, say, The Whole Woman by Greer. It is a far richer doctrine than mere equality and quite understandable for a Catholic conservative like Bill English – and many other people besides him – to be cautious about wholehearted identification with the term.

So even though I’m happy to say I’m a feminist as I support equality for women, most people don’t see a feminist as just being about equality – but about a wider political ideology. so holding it up as a litmus test for fitness to not very enlightening.

The Herald reports:

X Factor winner Beau Monga has been charged with assaulting a woman, just days after performing at an anti-violence breakfast.

The 22-year-old appeared in the Hamilton District Court today on five charges – three for breaching a protection order and two for male assaults female, reported Fairfax.

He pleaded not guilty to all charges. …

Monga and his father were guest speaker’s at a breakfast for anti-violence charity White Ribbon Day in Hamilton on November 25.

So almost certainly he already have a protection order against him when he spoke at the breakfast.

Would be a good idea for organisers of such events to ask guest speakers some basic questions such as are you the subject of a protection order.

The Herald reports:

Kiwi age-group triathlete Amy Stretton is devastated after being suspended for two years by Triathlon New Zealand for providing an incorrect time at a world championship event.

Her Auckland coach is adamant Stretton is capable of swimming the time and said she wasn’t given a chance to defend herself at the TriNZ disciplinary commission.

The commission handed down a two year ban from all competitions after finding Stretton’s time was not genuine and that it was likely she acted deliberately, given the absence of any explanation to the contrary.

Stretton, a physical education teacher at Onehunga High School, posted a swim time of 55min 27secs for 4km in the 30-34 age group at the Oklahoma ITU long distance world championships in September. She was more than eight minutes faster than the leading elite female at the end of the swim.

Not only was she faster than the leading elite female, she was faster than the leading elite man.

The full report is online here and a good read. First there is some form:

That at a previous event in New Zealand (the 2015 Taupo Ironman 70.3 Event) Ms Stretton had an initial swim time corrected by race management following discovery that she had started the race in a bunch earlier than she should have.

And how did she do at Taupo:

That at Taupo this resulted in a corrected swim time for Ms Stretton of 41:12. This compared, for example, to the fastest swim by an Elite Man (Dylan McNeice) of 23:43

Around half the speed of McNeice.

At Oklahoma, Mr McNeice was one of the three Elite Men to post the fastest swim time in their section of 56:47. Suggesting Ms Stretton had to have swum a full minute faster than him to complete the swim in Oklahoma in the time recorded and subsequently claimed by her;

So that is a huge improvement!

What is likely to have happened in this case is that Ms Stretton identified a time that she thought she could swim the required distance, and then orchestrated her swim to try and match that time. It is not clear how this would have been done, but we do note that the swim was a two-lap event, and the swimmers were not required to exit the water between laps. That, coupled with the absence of any mechanism to check her completion of the two laps (including the absence of any GPS data) means it is entirely possible that she orchestrated the swim of one lap in the time she hoped people would accept as a possible time for two.

If there was no checking you had done two laps, then easy to do.

Also of interest:

The Commission has been made aware that Ms Stretton has previously been suspended by TriNZ for a breach of TriNZ’s rules and regulations. That was for dishonestly representing that she had been selected for a TriNZ Elite team, and included the fabrication of a letter on TriNZ letterhead for provision to a third party. In the present circumstances Ms Stretton does not come before us therefore with a ‘clean record.

Pretty compelling case.

Stuff reports:

National Party MP Todd Barclay has been reselected to contest the Clutha-Southland electorate at the 2017 general election.

Barclay was voted to remain in his position ahead of former Merrill Lynch investment fund manager Simon Flood at the National Party Clutha-Southland candidate selection meeting in Winton on Wednesday.

“I’m thrilled with the result tonight and look forward to getting on the campaign trail and earning the right to continue to serve Clutha-Southland in Parliament,” Barclay said.

“I will be going forward into 2017 campaigning hard for Clutha-Southland, talking about my track record of success at delivering for local communities in Bill English’s strong, stable, positive National-led Government.”

Flood announced he would challenge Barclay for the role last month.

I understand the vote was not close, but overwhelmingly for Barclay.

National has quite a history of MPs being successfully challenged for nominations – John Key, Judith Collins and John Carter all entering Parliament this way.

Less common is an unsuccessful challenge. The last unsuccessfulful challenge I can recall is 22 year old Ruth Richardson against Sir Roy Jack in 1972 for the Rangitikei nomination. Sir Roy won and became Speaker (again) in 1976.

Phil Quin writes at Stuff:

Andrew Little’s own reshuffle displayed no less confidence than English in the security of his leadership.

In fact, Little is proving himself astoundingly effective at reshaping the caucus in his image. Which other leader of recent times can claim to have dispatched three former predecessors

True. Goff, Shearer and Cunliffe all gone. Little will be pleased with that.

meanwhile lumbering his only credible future rivals (Grant Robertson and David Parker) with portfolios to which they are glaringly unsuited?  

It is clear to anyone paying attention that Robertson and Parker have each other’s job – but, for Little, there are obvious advantages in keeping such talented frontbenchers out of their comfort zone.

This is so true. Robertson would be a natural at foreign affairs and Parker is far more credible in Finance. But by having them both in jobs they are unsuited for, they pose no threat.

Unlike Michael Cullen, who schooled himself assiduously on fiscal matters, Robertson appears to spend most of his spare time in university common rooms, where he is beloved by student politicians.

This has not gone unnoticed among Wellington businesspeople with whom I’ve spoken.

In many cases, they cast their electorate vote for Robertson, but do not believe he is a credible finance spokesperson.

Both Julie-Anne Genter and James Shaw have come across as more credible economic spokespersons than Robertson.

Unlike English, Little’s supreme confidence in his position stems not from robust polling, but from a party constitution that makes changing leaders midstream next to impossible.

This is especially the case given Little controls 20 percent of the party — in the form of affiliated unions – that give him an unbeatable head start ahead of any potential challenger. 

Leader for life!

J Murphy writes at news.com.au:

Sixth isn’t bad but first is better. Part of why we now have net inwards migration from Australia after decades of going the other way.

New Zealand gets glowing praise in the report.

They praise it for high levels of personal freedom, but especially for being “a nation with the strongest social capital in the world, where 99 per cent of New Zealanders say they have family or friends to rely on in times of need. “

(Could this amazing social capital be why NZ seems to be able to manage political stability and orderly transitions while we suffer through political incompetence and repeated back-stabbing?)

The PM transitions have been a contrast!

The Washington Post reports:

President-elect Donald Trump has named Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.) as his director of the Office of Management and Budget, signaling his intent to slash spending and address the deficit as president.

Mulvaney, 49, was elected to Congress in 2010 in the wave that brought a cohort of younger, staunchly conservative members into the House. Mulvaney quickly staked out ground as one of Congress’s most outspoken fiscal hawks — playing a key role in the 2011 showdown between President Obama and House Republicans that ended in the passage of strict budget caps.

He has been an advocate for spending cuts, often taking on his own party to push for more aggressive curbs to government spending.

Trump’s policies were to massively increase spending but he has appointed as head of OMB someone who wants to greatly curb spending.

The federal deficits blew out under both GWB and Obama and is unsustainably high. Eventually they need to get back into surplus where tax revenue matches or exceeds spending. Mulvaney may be the person who can help do that.

Mulvaney is also an advocate of a balanced-budget amendment to the Constitution.

Trump could push for that along with term limits.

Among Mulvaney’s chief duties will be overseeing the most dramatic overhaul of the nation’s tax code since President Ronald Reagan. Trump has pledged to streamline the process for individual households and slash the rate for corporations from 35 percent to 15 percent. The changes are a central component of the administration’s promise to boost economic growth to 4 percent or higher, a message that resonated with voters still bruised by the Great Recession but that many economists say is unsustainable.

In addition, Trump has said that stronger growth would mean his tax proposal would not contribute to the national debt, and he has vowed not to cut expensive but popular entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. But experts have been skeptical of those claims, and Mulvaney would be responsible for reconciling the numbers.

Trump’s numbers are nonsense. if Mulvaney can find a way through Trump’s rhetoric to actually eliminate the deficit, that would be a great thing.

The Herald reports:

Police said that the driver who rammed a truck into a crowded Christmas market in the heart of the German capital, killing at least 12 people and injuring nearly 50, did so intentionally and that they are investigating a suspected “terror attack.”

The truck struck the popular Christmas market outside the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church late Monday as tourists and locals were enjoying a traditional pre-Christmas evening out near Berlin’s Zoo station.

“Our investigators are working on the assumption that the truck was intentionally driven into the crowd at the Christmas market on Breitscheidplatz,” Berlin police said on Twitter.

Cowardly monsters who do this.

Unverified reports are that the driver is a refugee from Pakistan. This will increase the backlash against refugees, if correct.

The Herald reports:

Auckland Council’s events agency Ateed committed half a million dollars to Duco Events to help fund boxer Joseph Parker’s world title fight – before looking at the event’s business case and backing out.

So they pledged $500,000 before even looking at the business case!

The event happened in Auckland without the $500,000, so Auckland got all the benefits from the event and all that happened is that there was not a $500,000 wealth transfer from ratepayers to Duco. It was classic wasteful corporate welfare.

ATEED needs hard headed executives who won’t pledge money at the mere mention of an event, but will take a long hard look at the business case and assess whether the event would happen without ratepayer funding.

The Auckland Council need to appoint directors of ATEED who will appoint executives like this.

The contract was drawn up by Duco after Ateed chief executive Brett O’Riley agreed to give the promotions company half a million dollars, before knowing if the event met council’s strict public funding rules.

Amazing.

It can be revealed that on the same day O’Riley emailed Auckland mayor Phil Goff and councillors, to say funding discussions with Duco were “at an early stage, I wanted to update you with what we know currently”, Duco was emailing O’Riley – thanking him for a phone call and “confirmation that ATEED is in for $500k.”

If I was Phil Goff I would not be happy.

Ateed also confirmed it had funded Parker’s previous fight, against Carlos Takam in Auckland on May 21.

Ateed refused to confirm how much money that deal was worth, saying “withholding the information is necessary to enable Ateed to carry out commercial activities without prejudice or disadvantage.”

Oh bullshit. Handing out wads of ratepayer money is not a commercial activity.

Rodney Hide looks at what Gareth Morgan said is the TOP way of talking politics:

•”Be nice”;
•”talk ideas and policy, not personality”;
•”stick to the evidence”;
•”avoid name-calling”.

And then Rodney looks at how Gareth demonstrates these principles on Twitter:

To Tessa Burrows: “Pse have the self control to read & comprehend b4 u blab.

Thankfully the av public is smarter.”

To Ross Marks: “do your homework dickhead, TM [TradeMe] is less than 1/4 of my wealth.”

To Andrew Riddell: “if you’d read the book you’d know why dropkick. Typical tall poppy crap for a kiwi nobody.”

To Bryce Pearce: “yeah let’s not talk about the arguments, let’s just be bitchy. Jesus you’re a w***er.”

To Locrates: “Abuse is the lowest form of intellect. Try counselling.”

To Dermott Renner: “Sure, some of the top 20% don’t give a damn. Charming model for your children.” “Boy, some nutters out there.”

On ACT’s Dr Jamie Whyte: “He’s against fairness. He’s a moron like all libertarians.”

To Thomas Mead: “Try arguing & u better know what you’re talking about. I do & there’s no time here for fools.”

To Marchmain: “I answer fire with fire, always have. If u have a question ask it, otherwise FO – is that so hard?”

As Rodney says, very revealing.

The results of the Electoral College voting is:

1. Donald Trump 304
2. Hillary Clinton 228
3. Colin Powell 3 (Washington Democrats)
4. Faith Spotted Eagle 1 (Washington Democrat)
5. John Kasich 1 (Texas Republican)
6. Ron Paul 1 (Texas Republican)

One Democrat from Maine tried to vote for Bernie Sanders but under state law this was illegal so he changed it to Clinton. Similar occurred in Colorado and Minnesota.

This is another step along the road, but not the final one. Trump becomes the official official President-Elect on the 6th of January when Congress counts the vote with Vice-President Biden presiding.

The Herald reports:

From Hawai’i to Dipton – the new Prime Minister is quickly proving to be from a different mould than the man he succeeded.

Bill English has only been Prime Minister for a few days, but as parliament breaks up for Christmas and the new year he is already making plans for a summer holiday.

But unlike his mate John Key the destination is not a tropical paradise in the Pacific – although Southlanders might disagree.

Our new leader will spend Christmas with wife Mary and their extended family at their home in Wellington, before heading down south to the family farm in Dipton.

Claire Trevett pointed out you have to pity the DPS whose summer session has gone from Hawaii to Dipton!

Also making the trip will be fellow minister Nick Smith and former National politicians Tony Ryall and Roger Sowry, maintaining a long-standing tradition.

“We have holidayed together every Christmas for the past 25 years or so years,” English said.

A great friendship.

A very interesting profile and partial interview by Bevan Hurley on Mark Taylor. Some extracts:

Despite all of the derision he copped over the years, Mark John Taylor hated being mocked.

He couldn’t stand being referred to as the “bumbling jihadi”, and would complain about being mercilessly teased by Stuff commenters.

Oh dear. Poor petal.

During his first few months Taylor tells me in Facebook messages that he is committed to waging jihad and will die a martyr. He spouts against the NZ Security Intelligence Service (“What does NZSIS stand for? Nonsense Zionist Staff internet stalking”) and makes anti-semitic jokes about John Key’s parentage.

What a surprise – he is a racist.

I email back: “Can you tell me a bit about how you’re getting on over there? Everyone here in New Zealand is keen to know more about your life over there.”

Taylor responds: “5 requests as follows:

“1. I only talk in person, not online.

“2. You need to get a letter of protection from the lslamic State officials. Example: The German Writer was able to come here.

“3. I require a fee of no less then 500,000USD about my story here

“4. All confidential information remains confidential or classified.

“5. I check the final editing and make the final decision on the story.”

Totally delusional.

Taylor was getting grief in the comments section of the Stuff story about his exploits teaching with puppets: and he wasn’t happy. Example: “Good ole New Zilind. Every other western country is dealing with the problem of their own hardcore extremists going over to IS, and we give them Frank Spencer”.

Frank Spencer – what a great comparison. Well done that commenter.

“Remember if you make any more stories about me or your work coworkers from Fairfax.

“It won’t be 5 million dollars US, it’ll be 20 million dollars US I be wanting !

“Remove all the articles about me. That includes all other articles written by Stuff.co.nz in the past 7 years.

“And I forget this email, but if you don’t do it, I see you in a Court of Law in New Zealand with your Fairfax CEO and your lawyers INC!

He’s almost a parody of himself.

Paul Buchanan, of 36th Parallel Assessments, is in no doubt that Taylor was a naive stooge. If his time isn’t up already, the end is nigh.

“He might try to reach out to western intelligence agencies and try to secure safe passage. But I doubt that because he seems rather thick.”

An astute analysis!

An interesting tidbit that I discovered recently is Attorney-General Chris Finlayson has recommended to the Governor-General for appointedment every single member of the Supreme Court and the Court of Appeal, bar the Chief Justice.

Here is the breakdown for each court:

• Supreme Court – Finlayson has appointed five Justices. CJ Elias (appointed by Shipley) retires in 2018 so Bill English may get to appoint her replacement.
• Court of Appeal – Finlayson has appointed all 10 Justices
• High Court – Finlayson has appointed 26 Justices, 14 were appointed under Labour. The Chief HC Judge was made a Judge under Labour but made Chief under Finlayson

Quite unusual to have one Attorney-General appoint all but one Justice of the two top courts. This is partially a reflection of the fact we have a retirement age for judges (unlike the US) but also that Finlayson has been Attorney-General for so long.

The longest serving AGs since 1930s have been:

1. Rex Mason 17 years
2. Ralph Hanan 8 1/2 years
3. Chris Finlayson 8 years
4. Paul East 7 years
5. Jim McLay 6 years
6. Clifton Webb 5 years
7. Geoffrey Palmer 5 years
8. Margaret Wilson 4 1/2 years

So Chris is likely to become the second longest serving AG next year. I doubt anyone will ever bear Rex Mason’s record.

USA Today ranks the eight films”

1. Episode V
2. Episode IV
3. Episode VII
4. Episode VI
5. Rogue One
6. Episode III
7. Episode II
8. Episode I

My list would be different. I’d go:

1. Episode IV – something magical about the original, maybe seeing it as a 10 year old
2. Episode VII – loved it and the new characters
3. Episode VI – liked the happy ending
4. Episode V – a great film but a filler
5. Episode III – some great battle scenes
6. Episode I – young Anakin slightly better than older Anakin
7. Episode II – I guess the arena scene was okay

Stuff reports:

National will not stand a candidate in the by-election to replace outgoing Labour MP David Shearer, leading to claims the party is “running scared”.

Prime Minister Bill English has also confirmed the date for the by-election, with voters going to the polls on February 25. However, Labour has repeated its calls for an early election to instead take place.

Announcing the date, English said National would not stand a candidate as it was focussed on winning the 2017 election later in the year.

Jacinda will obviously win the seat easily. Not only has no Government ever won a seat off an Opposition in a by-election, but this is Labour’s third safest seat in the country. Only Mangere and Manukau East had bigger majorities for them. Add in their most popular MP, Jacinda Ardern, will be the candidate and why would National give Jacinda five weeks of headlines!

The seat has always been held by Labour MPs since it was created. In fact only three MPs have represented it since 1947. They are:

• Warren Freer for 34 years from 1947 to 1981
• Helen Clark for 28 years from 1981 to 2009
• David Shearer for 8 years from 2009 to 2017

Jacinda is aged just 36 so she could well represent the seat for 30 years or so. I expect she will spend some of that time as Prime Minister, as Clark did.

AP reports:

The Electoral College was devised at the Constitutional Convention in 1787. It was a compromise between those who wanted popular elections for president and those who wanted no public input.

The Electoral College has 538 members, with the number allocated to each state based on how many representatives it has in the House plus one for each senator. The District of Columbia gets three, despite the fact that the home to Congress has no vote in Congress.

To be elected president, the winner must get at least half plus one – or 270 electoral votes. Most states give all their electoral votes to whichever candidate wins that state’s popular vote. Maine and Nebraska award them by congressional district.

The AP tried to reach all of the electors and interviewed more than 330 of them, finding widespread aggravation among Democrats with the electoral process, but little expectation Trump would be derailed.

Some Democrats have argued that the Electoral College is undemocratic because it gives more weight to less populated states. That is how Hillary Clinton, who got more than 2.6 million more votes nationwide, lost the election to Trump.

This is incorrect. It is true that less populated states have more weight because each state has two senators (and hence two electoral college votes) regardless of size. The number of House Reps (and further electoral college votes) is proportional to population.

Let’s say you had electoral college votes strictly proportional to population of states. You’d do this by taking two votes off each state.

If so Trump would still have won with 246 EC votes and Clinton 190.

The reason Trump won despite getting fewer votes is because most states allocate their votes on a first past the post basis. Clinton won massive majorities in some large states but lost narrowly in many other states.

HDPA writes:

He won’t admit it, but Peters is said to want a go at the prime ministership. I’m told he wouldn’t even demand half the parliamentary term. He’d settle for a year.

It’s not as mad as it sounds. It happened in Israel after their elections in 1984, when the leaders of the two coalition parties each had half the term being PM.

The question is which party is desperate enough to give it to Winston?

It’s not hard to settle on Labour. Three terms in opposition is a long time. It’s said Peters prefers Labour anyway because everyone in National from the backbenchers to Key has been smart to him.

There’s certainly no way National would make Peters PM. But Labour? If it means not doing a 4th term in Opposition and Little gets to be PM for two years?

Would the Greens support a Prime Minister Peters?

If National gets say 45% and Peters 12% there is no way Peters can demand to be PM.

But what say Labour gets 26%, Peters 12% and the Greens 11%?

Winston’s long held dream may come true.

How did my semi-serious 2016 projections go. It’s scoring time. They were:

Audrey Young writes:

Backbencher of the year goes to first-term National list MP Chris Bishop. He has had luck in getting private member’s bills drawn from the ballot but unlike many in the ballot, his are meaningful bills.

And because of his bill, live organ donors will be compensated 100 per cent for loss of income for up to three months.

Another bill addresses some technical anomalies that allowed an award-winning book Into the River by Ted Dawe to be subject to an interim ban for six weeks in 2015.

Essentially the bill will offer the President of the Film and Literature Board of Review other options.

He has huge promise although it is unlikely the new Prime Minister would promote a first-term MP to a ministerial post in his reshuffle on Sunday.

Well done Bish.

There is, however, only one contender for Politician of the Year, John Key for the sheer audacity of his exit after eight years in office, and for the kind of Prime Minister he was.

No surprise.