Stuff reports:

The lucrative tobacco black market continues to fuel dairy and service stations burglaries in Canterbury with police investigating several new thefts.

A BP station in Sawyers Arms Rd, Bishopdale, and Z Waikuku in North Canterbury have both been broken in to in the past few days. 

Offenders entered the stores and targeted several items including cigarettes and cash.

There was a single offender in each incident and no weapons were involved. Both service stations were closed at the time. 

In August, it was revealed there had been several dairy robberies thought to be connected to the tobacco black market. 

Detective Senior Sergeant Mike Ford said at the time that he believed many of the robbers were stealing to order rather than for personal use.

“[Tobacco] is a very valuable commodity. They [the robbers] are taking as much as they can.”

Increasing excise tax on tobacco has overall been a positive move, as smoking rates drop. However there is a limit to how far you can go before the adverse effects of the higher taxes overwhelm the benefits. Just taxing the supply, while there is still considerable demand, does benefit the black market. We saw the same with prohibition of alcohol in the 1930s.

Phil Quin blogs:

No secret I’m supporting Nick Leggett, so I was listening to the Newstalk ZB mayoral candidates debate this morning, and one exchange stood out. When asked about the Living Wage, Labour’s candidate Justin Lester said he supported it because he wants to support “the little people”.

Excuse me?

Who on earth does he have in mind?

Moderator Tim Fookes asked him to clarify.

Cleaners and security staff, Lester explained.

So, cleaners and security guards, as long as you know you are the little people and people like Justin Lester are here to save you, you have nothing to worry about. What condescending, messianic bullshit. 

In case you think Quin is making this up, you can listen to audio below.

Jenna Lynch writes at Newshub:

The Herald reports:

Environmental groups have joined forces to urge Labour not to pull its support for the Kermadec marine sanctuary after Labour leader Andrew Little said Labour would review its position.

In a joint statement, five major environmental groups said they were concerned about the comments by Little, who said Labour would consider pulling its support if there was no agreement on the recognition of Maori fishing rights under the Treaty.

A marine sanctuary in the Kermadec Islands has been Labour Party policy since 2011.

The groups are Greenpeace, Forest and Bird, the Environmental Defence Society, the Pew Foundation and WWF.

Kevin Hackwell of Forest and Bird said Labour had championed a sanctuary for five years and two elections. “They now seem to be saying their own policy is a breach of fisheries rights and the fisheries settlement.”

Only Labour can argue against their own policy. They abandon doing what is right, for the opportunity to embarrass the Government.

Greenpeace executive director Russel Norman said fishing quota had always been subject to regulation for conservation reasons. “The Labour Party now seem to be agreeing with the fishing industry that no-take marine reserves are a breach of fisheries rights and compensation needs to be given even when no fishing is taking place.” He said that would set a bad precedent.

The reality is that commercial fishing rights in NZ are based on quota, not geography. Having some areas made marine reserves does not decrease the value of the quota. It just means it needs to be caught elsewhere.

It is possible a marine reserve could impact the ability to fulfill quota if it was a huge reserve in an area where there was lots of fishing, and you could not catch that quota elsewhere. But the Kermadecs has had close to zero commercial fishing for at least a decade so the marine reserve there does not impact property rights.

Labour seems to now be arguing that everytime there is a new marine reserve, quota holders should be given compensation even though their quota rights are in no way diminished.

Asked if he was concerned it would end up in Labour’s court if it was in Government after 2017, Little said he believed there was still time for the National Government to resolve it.

“I do not believe that when they have a Treaty Negotiations Minister as talented as Chris Finlayson, they cannot come up with a creative solution to the issue.

High praise for Finlayson.

Stuff reports:

An island in Wellington Harbour is set to be turned into a hi-tech tourist attraction by Sir Peter Jackson.

Matiu/Somes Island, which is now a predator-free scientific reserve, was New Zealand’s first inner harbour lighthouse and has been a human quarantine station, an internment camp, military defence position, and an animal quarantine station.

Port Nicholson Block Settlement Trust (PNBST) chairman Neville Baker said he met with Jackson to discuss how his Wellington-based production companies could create a world-class tourism offering on the island.

The movie mogul had committed to investigate a joint project with the Weta Group using digital storytelling and the latest in virtual and augmented reality technology.

The project would examine what life was like for the island’s first Maori inhabitants and encompass the stories and history of the Taranaki Whanui tikanga through digital storytelling and augmented reality.

Sounds a great idea. My idea of a perfect Wellington weekend is to kayak to Matiu/Somes on a fine day, walk around the island, take in the incredible views, and have a picnic lunch there.

Spark has announced:

Spark announced today a new social programme to bring heavily subsidised broadband to thousands of New Zealand children whose families cannot afford commercial home broadband services.

Spark Jump is an innovative programme for social change. Collaborating with community groups and government agencies, Spark will offer families at risk of digital exclusion entry-level home broadband for as little as $15 – about a quarter the price of the cheapest commercial services available.

“Digital inequality, especially when it comes to online learning, is a significant challenge for New Zealand. Every day, tens of thousands of children do not have access to home broadband and come home from school unable to continue their online learning,” Spark Managing Director Simon Moutter said.

“At Spark, we believe New Zealand children deserve to have the opportunity to learn and thrive in the modern digital economy. Spark Jump is our way of helping solve this Digital Divide, by ensuring children have digital access both at school and in the home. It’s very much part of Spark’s overall ambition to ‘unleash the potential in all New Zealanders through amazing technology’.”

Spark Jump will offer selected families a 30GB no-frills broadband service for just $15. To offer flexibility for families, Spark Jump is pre-paid, no fixed-term contract and includes a modem while they are using the service. The service uses the Skinny Broadband platform and provides “wireless” home broadband via a 4G mobile signal connecting with the nearest cell tower.

This is a great move by Spark. While the vast majority of homes in New Zealand have Internet access, there are some who do not, as they can’t afford it. This does put them at a disadvantage, especially any kids in the house.

A $15 a month service is very affordable. That is 50 cents a day. Of course it is no frills being capped at 30 GB so won’t be a service for people to be able to do intensive gaming or video on. But it will be more than enough for e-mail web browsing and the like.

Spark Jump will be administered by Spark Foundation, the registered charity funded by Spark and governed independently by a Board of Trustees. Spark Foundation will partner with local community-based organisations who will identify and refer eligible families.  

Spark Foundation Chair Nick Leggett says learnings from the Foundation’s four-year partnership with digital learning pioneer the Manaiakalani Education Trust led to the development of Spark Jump.  

“Our work with Manaiakalani has shown that the lack of home broadband is a barrier to New Zealand children’s learning and that whanau engagement plays a big role in children’s educational success. By enabling whanau to support digital learning with home broadband, we can help build on the effectiveness of the Government’s efforts to improve broadband access within schools, through the rollouts of ultrafast fibre and the Network for Learning (N4L) managed network.” 

Spark hopes to make Spark Jump available to at least 5,000 families over the coming 12 months and is looking to collaborate with government agencies and community groups to scale to higher volumes.  

I’ve been really impressed with how Spark has done since it was separated from the monopoly aspects of Chorus and has had to go from a patch protecting incumbent to a more nimble competitor. They led the way on chopping mobile roaming rates, and have led the way again with this.

• Sarah Free
• Chris Calvi-Freeman
• Robert Murray
• Rob Goulden
• Simon Swampy Marsh
• Lynda McGregor

What is the maximum average annual rates increase, if any, you would vote for over the next three years?

• Sarah Free – 3%
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – Inflation rate only. Any extra would require specific project by project justification.
• Robert Murray – CoL or the LG cost increase whichever is less
• Rob Goulden – In line with current inflation rate

DPF comment – Three candidates saying no more than inflation and one saying no more than 3%.

Do you support the proposed runway extension for Wellington Airport?

• Sarah Free – No
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – Not answered but see question below
• Robert Murray – No
• Rob Goulden – Yes

DPF comment – Free and Murray are against the runway extension while Goulden is in favour. Calvi-Freeman is depends.

What is the maximum contribution ($ or %) from WCC toward the runway extension you would vote for?

• Sarah Free – WCC should only contribute in proportion to its shareholding in WIAL ( 34%)
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – WCC’s percentage share, but only after a satisfactory business case showing a good return.
• Robert Murray – $0, the idea of a company is that it takes the risk not the shareholders.
• Rob Goulden – Subject to Resource Consent approval. Prefer funding by Infratel rather than WCC

DPF comment – Free and Calvi-Freeman say any WCC funding should be in proportion to shareholding. Murray against any contribution and Goulden prefers Infratil funding.

Can you give an example of current WCC spending that you would vote against in future?

• Sarah Free – I didnt vote for spending on the runway resource consent, Frank Kitts park changes, changes at McAllister Park to accomodate professional sport, and the first Convention Centre proposal. I will prioritise the basics first and demand robust business cases for economic investments.
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – Chinese Garden on Frank Kitts Park.
• Robert Murray – 10 yr plan, LGWM, UDA, Convention Centre, Stadium upgrade, suburban cycleways. 30km limit, traffic calming and dissuasion features, traffic lights.
• Rob Goulden – Money given to Call Active $300,000 which was lost with no results and company going into liquidation

Do you support four laning (through additional tunnels) the Mt Vic and Terrace tunnels at an estimated cost of $250 million?

• Sarah Free – yes to the tunnels, as long as they also provide high quality walking and cycling infrastructure and facilitate public transport. Id also support some roading upgrades, but i would want to see how improvements fit into the big picture solution.
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – In principle, but only on condition of full NZTA budget, access to traffic modelling, environmental analysis etc.
• Robert Murray – Yes, asap noting its NZTA funded
• Rob Goulden – I think Wellington needs a Central road and this could be done depending on options to trench and what happens with the Basin Reserve

DPF comment: All seem to be supportive.

Do you support a change to the structure of local government in the Wellington Region, and if so to what?

• Sarah Free – No,apart from perhaps some amalgamation of the wairarapa Councils. I think we have had that discussion and amalgamation was rejected by the people. However, we should look at more joined-up delivery of services and investment across the region
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – No, except I think the 3 Wairarapa district councils should probably amalgamate. I want GWRC and WCC to work more closely together for the common good.
• Robert Murray – Not for Wellington City. Don’t mind if Hutt or Wairarapa merge
• Rob Goulden – Favour collaboration between Councils and shared services and cost savings

Do you support the current closing times for CBD bars of 4am. If not, what time would you prefer?

• Sarah Free – Yers. I have been very forthright in my view that Council should not waste time and resources trying to come up with an alternative alcohol policy, unless we have very convincing local evidence that the 4am time is not working.
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – I have insufficient information to make a judgement on whether the bars should close earlier but I wouldn’t want them to stay open later than 4am.
• Robert Murray – No. If 2am is fine for LA it should be fine for Wellington
• Rob Goulden – Happy with the status quo. Would like to see more enforcement of unruly behaviour and licensing. Not enough personal responsibility for behaviour at present.

DPF comment: Free and Goulden support 4 am. Calvi-Freeman possibly does and Murray wants 2 am.

Do you think WCC should make it a condition for any business tendering for a contract with WCC to pay their staff at least $20 an hour?

• Sarah Free – No. The Living Wage is currently $19.80. I support Council paying this to its directly employed staff and some contractors.
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – Yes
• Robert Murray – Not until they can be assured ratepayers have similar income levels
• Rob Goulden – No

DPF comment: Calvi-Freeman in favour of forcing contractors to pay the living wage. Free in favour for some contractors. Murray and Goulden against.

Should fluoridation of the Wellington city water supply continue?

• Sarah Free – Yes, however, recent international eveidence has suggested the amounts we use may be too high, leading to problems like fluorosis (mottling) of teeth, thyroid and bone disorders.
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – Yes
• Robert Murray – Yes
• Rob Goulden – Yes we should do everything to keep people healthy and fit.

DPF comment: All candidates in favour of fluoridation but Free concerned about the level.

If Council had an additional 10% revenue, or $40 million, what would be your priority spending areas?

• Sarah Free – I’d put in really decent bus shelters city wide and have more affordable off-peak fares and student discounts. id also build more Council housing and use some of it to accomodate potential first home buyers at reduced rents for a specified time to help them save a deposit towards buying their first home.
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – Improvement to roads, junctions, cycleways; resilience measures.
• Robert Murray – Ensuring infrastructure services are robust and earthquake and sea level rise ready
• Rob Goulden – Local infrastructure or retire Council debt

Vegemite or Marmite?

• Sarah Free – Marmite
• Chris Calvi-Freeman – Vegemite
• Robert Murray – Peanut butter – crunchy
• Rob Goulden – I like honey because its such a great health food

The table above is a simple scoring system of responses against my own personal views of low rates, no subsidy for the runway, four lanes on SH1, 4 am closing, no living wage requirement and pro-fluoridation.

The scores on policy are not the only factor in deciding how I will vote. Ability to work with others, communicate, work hard etc all factor in also.

But on policy grounds Goulden scores the highest. Then Free and Murray.

I didn’t get a reponse to this survey from Simon (Swampy) Marsh but I know him and his views well and if I was in Eastern Ward I would vote for him also.

Stuff reports:

Internal files reveal publishing giant Penguin was warned about “gaps” in cancer conwoman Belle Gibson’s story at least five months before releasing her book, but still failed to fact-check it.

The publisher also hired a public relations firm one week after the 2014 launch of The Whole Pantry to draft a crisis plan in case Gibson was ever accused of lying about “part of or all her story”.

The previously unseen documents provide the most comprehensive insight yet into Penguin’s disregard of concerns about the disgraced author, who the multinational publisher paid a A$130,000 advance and worked with intimately for more than a year.

They outline how Penguin sought to capitalise on her brain cancer “survival” story through a publicity strategy circulated among senior staff.

In the memo, the head of Penguin’s cookbook division, Julie Gibbs, said the company’s publicity team would work with Gibson to “make sure” the book campaign was about how a “healthy lifestyle has prolonged Belle’s life – way beyond what was ever predicted by her doctors.”

After Gibson’s lies were revealed, and days before her book was pulled from the shelves, Penguin’s PR firm expressed relief that attention had turned from the publisher to the conwoman’s “friends” and that “we would like to avoid inserting ourselves into the ongoing conversation”, the documents reveal.

The documents also capture the fury of readers’ backlash against Penguin – one of the world’s biggest publishers – over its failure to do it due diligence before printing the book.

Incensed customers demanded refunds, accusing the company of having “just as much blood on your hands as she does” and of making “a quick buck on the back of her deception”.

Heads should have rolled at Penguin. They failed to fact check a story that was highly implausible – that diet alone cured a brain tumour. Not once did they say to the fraudster that we need to speak to your doctor.

And this book caused actual damage. People with cancer may have believed that they could cure their cancer by buying this nice book from Penguin and cooking the recipies in it.

Stuff reports:

A cross-party committee of MPs have unanimously called on Parliament to ensure live organ donors are paid 100 per cent of their normal income during recovery. 

Parliament’s Health Select Committee has given a ringing endorsement to National Party MP Chris Bishop’s bill, by calling for it to be passed into law and boosting the amount donors would be paid. 

Under its first iteration, the bill would have increased financial support for living donors to 80 per cent of their income.

Initially indexed to the ACC rate, the bill if passed, would reward live organ donors for their altruism significantly more than the sickness benefit they were currently entitled to. 

It was a measure Bishop hoped would both improve New Zealand’s organ donation rates, and reward people fairly – without providing incentive – to make such a decision. 

“There are more than 700 people accepted for a kidney transplant and around 40 people for liver, cardiac or lung transplants.

“Currently live organ donors are essentially penalised for their altruism, facing a large loss of income while they donate, even though their actions save lives and contribute to a healthier New Zealand,” he said.

In the committee’s report to Parliament it recommended a number of changes to be made.

Donors would be reimbursed at 100 per cent of their income for up to 12 weeks during recovery, as in the United Kingdom.

Great to see both support for the bill, and the Health Select Committee doing a great job by improving the bill.

Our organ donation rates are very low, and this bill will help improve them, saving lives.

Bishop said current rates of payment were a “significant barrier” to organ donation.

“This is a substantial improvement on the status quo and reflects a ‘cost-neutrality’ approach, where donating should neither financially advantage or disadvantage a person.”

Donors shouldn’t be disadvantaged for their altruism.

The Herald reports:

Labour leader Andrew Little has confirmed two senior appointments ahead of next year’s election campaign.

Mike Jaspers will be chief press secretary, filling a position that has been vacant since Sarah Stuart left in May after little more than a year in the role.

Jaspers works in communications for New Zealand Rugby including when New Zealand hosted the Rugby World Cup in 2011.

He has experience in Parliament – previously working as a press secretary for Sir Michael Cullen in 2006/07, and before that in Parliament’s press gallery for TVNZ.

It’s understood Little previously tried to hire Jaspers after he became Labour leader.

Congrats to Mike Jaspers on becoming the seventh Chief Press Secretary for Labour in eight years.

Jaspers is well regarded is a good pick. But so were some of those who came before him.

Little has also announced that Neale Jones will become chief of staff. Jones currently works in Little’s office as political director.

Jones used to work for Little at the EPMU, so not a huge surprise in this appointment.

Jones is the sixth Chief of Staff for Labour in eight years.

The Herald reports:

New Zealand’s human rights watchdog has given the “orange light” to assisted dying, saying that the Government should proceed with caution and only if strict safeguards are in place.

These safeguards should include a minimum age limit, a prognosis that a person will die within 12 months, and an opt-out clause for doctors who do not want to be part of the euthanasia process.

Sounds reasonable.

The Human Rights Commission’s chief legal adviser Janet Anderson-Bidois said the commission’s position was unanimously backed by all commissioners after “a very robust discussion”.

“In summary, the commission’s agreed position is that a legal framework permitting assistance to be given to a competent, adult, terminally ill person, if he or she autonomously chooses to do so, could be acceptable with the following provisos: that the system must be delivered in a manner consistent with core human rights principles; the process must be accompanied by adequate legal and procedural safeguards; and appropriate palliative care services must be available and accessible for all terminally all people.”

The key issue is allowing a competent person to choose.

• High thresholds: Minimum age of 18 years old and likely death within 12 months.
• No coercion or influence: System ensures decisions are competently and freely made.
• Medical backing: Appropriate medical advice to confirm prognosis and confirm absence of treatable condition which may affect any decision-making ability.
• Cooling off period: To prevent hasty and reactive decisions, especially after a recent diagnosis.
• Monitoring: Ongoing monitoring and independent review to prevent abuse of the system and give public transparency.
• Judicial oversight: To determine whether thresholds for assisted dying have been met.
• “Conscientious objection” clause: Make participation in the assisted dying process voluntary for medical professionals.
• Cultural considerations: Take into account cultural diversity of NZ in any legal framework, especially those for whom English is a second language.
• Alternatives: Make sure palliative care is accessible and remains a first choice, rather than making assisted dying a default option.

They all look like sensible provisions.

NewstalkZB reports:

A skirmish between Labour and the police has blown up into an all-out war of words.

Deputy Commissioner Viv Rickard has written to Labour leader Andrew Little, complaining that Napier MP Stuart Nash is going too far in his criticisms of Eastern District Commander Sandra Venables.

The Deputy Commissioner has had enough, saying Stuart Nash is repeatedly attacking someone who isn’t allowed to reply publicly, and that he’s incorrectly blaming the District Commander for the problems he sees.

Mr Rickard’s letter has also been posted to the internal police bulletin board, for all staff to see.

The Deputy Commissioner has declined a request for interview, saying Mr Little had promised a reply, and he’ll extend the courtesy of waiting for that response, before talking about it in the media.

Mr Nash said he’s raising issues that the community wants addressed, but admits he possibly shouldn’t personally target the District Commander.

“She might not be allowed to come out and say MP Stuart Nash is wrong and I refute this, I’d like to meet him at dawn with pistols.”

“But what she can do is start taking a really proactive stance on communicating with the community.”

Attacking a public servant who can’t respond is not a good look.

Stuff reports:

John Key’s audience at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York was a small but well-heeled one. So a shocked gasp went around the room when one of its armchair generals rose from his seat to ask whether New Zealand was good for much more in the US than a few lamb chops.

His gripe was New Zealand’s anti-nuclear legislation and not pulling our weight which, as Key pointed out, is ancient history, given our decade-plus involvement in Afghanistan and now Iraq.

That was not the only history lesson Key felt compelled to deliver to his US audience.

Clark sent troops into both Iraq and Afghanistan, and Key has continued the Afghanistan mission and also approved a training mission for Iraq this time around.

He harked back to the days of “fortress New Zealand”, the time pre-1980s when we ran one of the more protectionist economies in the world, our manufacturers and even wine makers propped up by tariffs and quotas that freed them from having to compete with companies overseas who did things faster, cheaper and better.

The wine industry used to specialise in cheap wine as tariffs meant no other country could produce wine for NZ so cheaply. Once the tariffs went, the NZ wine industry went for quality. There were predictions it would fail without protection, but instead it flourished and exports increased massively.

As the rest of the world retreats into protectionism, Key is almost a lone voice advocating for free trade and, in particular, the Trans Pacific Partnership deal, on the international stage.

US President Barack Obama is now officially into the “lame duck” period of his presidency and if he can’t get the TPP through the US Congress before the election, Key worries there may never be another opportunity.

Key didn’t pull any punches, meanwhile, in warning what would happen if the US pulled out.

Something else would fill the void. And in this case, the something would probably be China,  the very bogey used by Trump to scare up opposition to the TPP.

Which is why Key’s message to the US was an unusually blunt one –  sign the TPP now, or watch America slowly slide from “great”, to waning super power.

Spot on.

The UK standard reports:

President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, outlined his vision to roll out 5G across the EU and give every village and city free internet.

He made the announcement in his annual State of the Union speech to the European Parliament.

Mr Juncker said: “We need to work for a Europe that empowers our citizens and our economy. And today, both have gone digital.

“Digital technologies and digital communications are permeating every aspect of life.

“All they require is access to high-speed internet. We need to be connected. Our economy needs it. People need it.”

He said: “That is why today the Commission is proposing to fully deploy 5G, the fifth generation of mobile communication systems, across the European Union by 2025. 

“This has the potential to create a further two million jobs in the EU.

“We propose today to equip every European village and every city with free wireless internet access around the main centres of public life by 2020.

So please vote to stay with us, and we’ll give you free WiFi!

Of course it won’t be free. It will be paid for by EU taxpayers.

Stuff reports:

The Government has given the go-ahead for Chinese company Shanghai Maling to buy a 50 per cent interest in meat processor Silver Fern Farms (SFF).

An application for the purchase was made to the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) late last year, following an overwhelming vote of support from SFF shareholders.

Shanghai Maling offered to invest $261 million into New Zealand’s largest meat processor co-operative. 

It is a decision that has left SFF chairman Rob Hewett “delighted”, and one that he said he never doubted.

Finance Minister Bill English said the deal had been tested by shareholders, but he would not be drawn on whether he considered it a good one for farmers.

“The owners have made the decision and they think it’s a good deal. The meat industry has struggled with capital, and China has become a big customer,” English said.

The proposed investment was now “unconditional” and was set to be completed on January 4 next year, the first business day of the new financial year for the partnership.  

At one stage this year, the deal encountered spirited resistance from a shareholder group led by Englishman and high country runholder John Shrimpton.

The group forced a second shareholder vote, but it was again an emphatic win for the supporters of the agreement.

NZ First has been vocal in its opposition. It took the deal for review to the Financial Markets Authority and the Companies Office, claiming the SFF had misrepresented its financial situation to shareholders.

On Tuesday, NZ First leader Winston Peters said the deal was “reward[ing] corruption and deceit”, claiming SFF had understated its profit and overstated its debt.

Peters has been trying to force his views on the thousands of farmers who own SFF. The company had a serious risk of going bust without this investment. The farmer shareholders could have lost a lot of money if it had. Peters has no shares. His hysterical opposition would not see him lose one cent. He didn’t care about the actual farmers who own shares in SFF. It was just a weapon for him.

Over 80% of shareholder farmers voted for the deal. It was a decision for them, not for Peters. If he thinks he knows better than the farmers of NZ how to run a $2.4 billion a year turnover company, then he should seek to put his own money into it, rather than destroy value for those who have.

The Dom Post editorial:

Since TVNZ is just another commercial broadcaster, why is it still publicly owned?  The only reason for state-owned broadcasting is to ensure that television is something more than a purveyor of profitable pap. If all it does is pap and populism, there is no reason for it to be owned by the government or the public.

In that case the Government should sell it.

A rare case where I agree.

Five Thirty Eight has forecast that the Democrats have a 59% chance of taking control of the US Senate.

They predict that:

• Democrats win Pennsylvania
• Democrats win New Hampshire
• Democrats retain Nevada
• Democrats win Indiana
• Democrats win Illinois
• Democrats win Wisconsin

This would give the Democrats a fairly comfortable 52 seats.

Trump is now seen to have a better chance of winning the presidency, than the Republicans retaining the Senate. They have him at between 44% and 48% probability (depending on model) to win the presidency. This is the highest he has been apart from the convention bounce.

Stuff reports:

With one last understated jab at the Government and an emotional nod to his late mother and sister, Green Party veteran MP Kevin Hague has signed off on eight years in Parliament. 

Giving his valedictory speech to a mostly-full House of MPs, Hague said it had been a little like “punching into the wind of Cyclone Bola”. 

He gained laughs when he told Parliament of a time when he and his partner Ian used to sail on 24ft cutter.

“I remember in 1988 during Cyclone Bola – some might question the decision to go sailing – we were anchored in a bay in the outer part of the Coromandel Harbour.”

The wind was so strong it would drag the boat out, forcing them to keep a 24-hour anchor watch and use the small outboard motor to “punch back into the wind” to get to back to shelter. 

“Eight years of Opposition has felt something like that. Going to work each day, standing up for what we believe in, but losing almost all of our arguments,” he said. 

“Not because we were wrong, but because of the Government’s superior numbers and resources.”

But it had been “an enormous honour” to serve as an MP, and Hague said he felt he had made his late mother and sister proud. 

“In leaving I feel I have done my best, I feel I have made things better and I go with my integrity entact.”  

The pragmatic activist; Hague has had a political career marked by both quiet dedication, and staunch advocacy. …

During his speech, Hague made particular mention of ACC Minister Nikki Kaye, with whom he worked on a bill to reform adoption and surrogacy laws. 

He offered his “best wishes” for her fast recovery, as she has taken leave to battle breast cancer. 

A career of significant achievement, also included helping establish Nga Haerenga (the New Zealand Cycle Trail), and he leaves behind a petition being considered that seeks pardons for those convicted for homosexual acts before law reforms were passed in 1986.

But it was marred by never having had the opportunity to be a minister.

“I think I might have done a pretty good job of that,” he said. 

I doubt I would have agreed with many of his policies, but I do think he would have been a good Minister. As a former Chief Executive of a DHB he does understand how the system works. And Hague has done a commendable job in weaning some of the Greens away from their anti-science views towards fluoridation and the like. I worry they may regress in his absence.

The Herald reports:

Maori Party co-leader Marama Fox has let rip at NZ First after it pulled its support for two Treaty settlements just days before a special sitting of Parliament to pass them into law.

Hundreds were due to come to Parliament from Northland, Manawatu and Taranaki on Friday to watch as five Treaty settlements were passed into law in a special ‘extended hours’ sitting agreed on by all parties.

However, a change of position from NZ First on two of the settlements resulted in the abandonment of the day.

NZ First is behaving appallingly. Every party of course has a right to support or not support a particular law. But they had given their word that they would not oppose this bill, allowing it to be dealt with on a Friday when most MPs would not be present (as a vote would not be needed).

The bills are unchanged from earlier readings when NZ First were in favour of them.

Maori Party co-leader Marama Fox said she was furious given NZ First had supported the settlements until the last minute and hundreds of people had booked to travel down for historic moments for their iwi.

Around 400 people already had their travel booked and accommodation booked. They did this because NZ First had said they would not oppose the bill going to a voice vote on Friday. The issue is not what position NZ First has, but their appalling behaviour in going back on their word after travel arrangements had been made.

If NZ First had all along said they would not support it going to a voice vote on Friday, then it would not have happened. The Business Committee of Parliament can only make arrangements like this when all parties agree. What they have done is show their word can’t be trusted.

The headline in the NZ Herald:

Colin Craig on kiss with press secretary: ‘I did not take my pants off’

Well that’s a headline you need therapy to recover from.

Talking of therapy:

Details have emerged in court about a restraining order granted to Colin Craig’s former press secretary against a counsellor she alleges posted confidential information about her in a blog post.

The Herald can reveal that Rachel MacGregor was granted a restraining order in the Waitakere District Court against Steve Taylor in May this year.

The order and the reasons for it were discussed in open court today, during day 12 of Craig’s High Court defamation trial. …

Taylor is an associate of Craig and a former Conservative Party candidate.

He was the moderator for his allegedly defamatory pamphlet “Dirty Politics and Hidden Agendas”.

He is also a counsellor and the director of 24-7 Limited which, according to the company’s website, offers counselling and mediation to individuals, couples and families.

Sometime after MacGregor quit and following the speculation that followed about her shock departure a blog post appeared on the internet containing extremely personal information about her, including information she alleges she disclosed to Taylor.

The author of the post has never been firmly identified but MacGregor, when applying to the courts for the restraining order, alleged it was Taylor.

Williams’ lawyer Peter McKnight asked Craig about Taylor and the blog, which has been removed from the internet. Craig indicated that he knew about it and Taylor’s alleged connection to it.

Craig claimed MacGregor and Taylor were “close friends” but had a “falling out”, which he believed was about money.

Craig said he knew about the restraining order but did not know the details.

“I am aware it was quite an acrimonious falling out. I am aware there is some type of order,” he told the jury.

McKnight asked Craig if Taylor had posted the blog and if he had disclosed information MacGregor had divulged during a counselling session. …

Craig said he had seen the blog post and it contained “quite a bit of factual information” but “it was a terrible thing to do”.

Stuff reports:

Former US President George W. Bush Sr plans to vote for Hillary Clinton in November, according to a member of another famous political family, the Kennedys.

A report by Politico said that Bush, 92, had intended to stay silent on the White House race between Clinton and Donald Trump, but that on Monday,  former Maryland lieutenant governor and daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, said in a Facebook post that former Republican president told her he’s voting for Clinton.

She is reported as having posted a photo with the former president to Facebook, captioned: “The President told me he’s voting for Hillary!!”.

I’m not surprised as he loves his country and knows how serious the top job is.

Bush 43 has not said either who he will vote for, and he could well vote Clinton also. This would lead to the extraordinary situation of every living Republican President voting for the Democratic candidate – as well as the last Republican nominee (Romney).