Grumpollie (a senior experienced NZ pollster) blogs on the issue of calling cellphones. He quotes some data to note:

In fact, you can see in the next chart that nearly half (47%) of non-landline households receive more then $40,000 per year, and a quarter (25%) receive more than $70,000 per year. So sure, absolutely, there is a skew toward lower income (and likely younger) households, but don’t assume that cell-only households all contain lower income people and young people.

Andrew breaks down the spread by income being:

• 38% of households are under $40,000 income of which 8% do not have landlines
• 23% of households are under $40,000 income of which 3% do not have landlines
• 39% of households are under $40,000 income of which 4% do not have landlines

He then points out:

Most polling companies will weight their data to (EDIT: try to) correct for things like non-coverage of age and socioeconomic groups. The problem with weighting is it assumes the people you have surveyed (and are weighting) are similar to the people who you haven’t surveyed.

But here’s what you need to think about if you’re wondering how big the cellphone non-coverage issue really is:

• Do voters in the under $40k income band who are not covered differ in party support from voters in the under $40k income band that are covered?
• Do voters in the $40-70k income band who are not covered differ in party supportfrom voters in the $40-70k income band that are covered?
• Do voters in the $70k+ income band who are not covered differ in party support from voters in the $70k+ income band that are covered?

When I say differ, I’m not talking differ ‘just a little’. When you factor in the size of each non-covered income group (8%, 3%, and 4%), they would have to differ massively from each covered income group, when it comes to party support, for them to make much difference at all to a total poll result.

I think it is inevitable that polling in NZ will start to include mobile phones and/or Internet panels in their sampling. But as Andrew points out,  the impact at this stage of non-inclusion is likely to be minor. One company (Roy Morgan) does include cell phones, so one interesting thing will be to see how they go in terms of accuracy at the election. In the US the company with the highest proportion of cellphones called (Gallup) had basically the worst result.

Stuff reports:

A New Zealand bid to host a future Commonwealth Games may not centre on one city.

That’s because our cities are probably not big enough to cope.

New Zealand Olympic Committee president Mike Stanley this week told the Sunday Star-Times he was ”absolutely sure” that the country would host another Games – for the fourth time in the event’s varied history since inception in 1930.

I’m not so sure.

A successful bid would take close to a decade between launching and hosting, Stanley said, making 2026 the earliest New Zealand could play host – 36 years after Auckland was our last host city.

I love watching the games, but I think hosting them just costs too much. The costs almost always blow out.

Travel blogger Liz Carlson blogs at Young Adventuress 15 reasons why she loves living in Wellington, six months after arriving here:

1. All the bays and all the beaches
2. Hilly city
3. Awesome brunch and coffee culture
4. Mt Victoria
5. Friendly and awesome Wellingtonians
6. Cool marine life
7. Hip bar scene
8. Zealandia
9. Honking in the Mt Vic tunnel
10. Wellington cable car
11. Middle Earth in Wellington
12. Crazy roads
13. Windy Welly
14. Somes Island
15. Sunday market and Te Papa

Not much on that list I would disagree with. We do live in a great city in Wellington. Would be nice if the water was a bit warmer at the beautiful beaches, but can’t have everything!

The Library bar is one of my favourite places in Wellington. I can happily spend hours there.

Also Somes Island is truly awesome. Have been there a few times. Kayaking over there from Petone is my preferred mode of travel to it!

Stuff reports:

Pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah probably used Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 to commit mass murder/suicide, according to a book by two Waikato authors.

The captain of MH370 may have even glided the out-of-fuel aircraft to its final end in the southern Indian Ocean and sunk it intact, say Geoff Taylor and Ewan Wilson, authors of Goodnight Malaysian 370 – the truth behind the loss of Flight 370.

The authors suggest Zaharie, who prided himself on his technical expertise and methodical nature, may have got satisfaction out of making the Boeing 777 virtually impossible to find in what they described as “the ultimate post-mortem triumph”.

The book, released on Amazon Kindle on Monday and in hard copy on August 10, was written after extensive research in Malaysia and interviews with family members and friends.

Wilson, a pilot and former chief executive of two airlines, said the book analyses every possible scenario of what could have happened to the ill-fated airliner that left Kuala Lumpur for Beijing at 12.41am on March 8.

“We were able to completely rule out any possibility of catastrophic structural failure, rapid depressurisation, electrical failure, fire or being shot down as possible causes for MH370’s loss,” said Wilson, who also has transport air investigation qualifications.

“They simply couldn’t have happened. Through a process of elimination, we were left with the uncomfortable and very tragic likelihood that Zaharie – because of some personality disorder, depression or emotional breakdown – killed himself and everyone on the aircraft deliberately.”

I have no expertise in this area, but it seems pretty obvious that one of the pilots was responsible.

However Worldtruth.tv reckon they know what happened:

When it was first announced that flight MH-370 disappeared without a trace, there had been voices suggesting that the same plane will be later used in a false flag operation.

Personally, I tried to ignore the speculations thinking that no secret agency could ever conduct such an insanely-obvious operation, expecting that the rest of the world is stupid enough to buy it.

Boy, was I was wrong! …

If the US secret services got possession of the MH-370 jet, then it was a child’s play for them to set it up for a false flag operation suiting their needs. After the story of a passenger jet having been shot down by pro-Russian separatists broke loose, Russia lost a lot of credibility and support due to the US propaganda machine.

Conspiracy nutters are such fun.

The Herald reports:

Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce has accused Labour of “xenophobia” in their opposition of the potential sale of Lochinver Station to the Chinese company that bought the Crafar Farms.

Mr Joyce and Grant Robertson, economic development spokesman for Labour, appeared on TV3’s The Nation this morning and discussed the sale.

Mr Robertson said under Labour the sale would not go ahead.

“Our criteria would definitely mean that a sale like this would be highly unlikely.”

Mr Joyce said the opposition were “electioneering” in relation to the issue.

“When did [Labour] go out and oppose the purchase of James Cameron’s land?”

“A little xenophobia from the Labour Party to start the day,” he said.

Cameron is becoming a resident, but you rarely hear Labour attack Harvard University for land purchases, Shania Twain, Australians or Canadians. But if it is Chinese, then they have lots to say.

Mr Joyce said the Lochinver Station was a “ridiculously small amount of land” in the North Island to sell off.

The Lochinver sheep and beef farm site is valued at $70 million and covers 13,800ha.

That’s 138 square kms. Around 0.05% of NZ. At this rate China will own all our land in the year 3,956. Panic, panic, everyone.

The Herald reports:

He’s famous for wearing black, but don’t be surprised to see Jonah Lomu wearing National blue.

The rugby legend has endorsed Prime Minister John Key on Twitter.

“Great to have a Leader that leads proud to be Kiwi @johnkeypm,” Lomu tweeted to his 46,000 followers yesterday.

The backing was promptly re-tweeted from Key’s account to its 113,000 followers, with the National leader also tweeting: “Thanks for your support @JONAHTALILOMU. #AllBlackLegend #TeamKey.”

As expected, a few people are spewing about this. How dare a Pacific Islander endorse John Key!

Fran O’Sullivan writes:

The faux outrage over Tim Groser hosting a so-called lavish dinner at which Patagonian tooth fish was served is absurd.

Critics probably don’t think of themselves as “food Nazis”, but trawling through the Trade Minister’s credit-card receipts and beating up on him for eating a protected fish – when in fact the Chilean sea bass is legally sold internationally – paints a miserable and petty picture.

Groser can’t recall whether it was he or one of his two guests who ate the offending fish or, quelle horreur, enjoyed foie gras.

It’s pathethic.

Could you imagine being at dinner with four of your ministerial colleagues from other countries, and as one of them orders the fish, that Groser should step in and demand that his colleagues order something different. They would think he was bonkers.

The point about Chilean sea bass – a good choice, by the way; I’ve eaten it in Chile and Argentina and it is delicious – is that it is legally fished within quota limits like many other species, and has been by New Zealand companies in Antarctic waters.

Yep.

The Herald reports:

What John Banks is labelling compelling new evidence for an appeal against his criminal conviction is believed to be sworn statements from two Americans whose presence at the critical donation lunch was a key issue at his trial. …

Justice Edwin Wylie had found him guilty of filing the return without recording the origin of two $25,000 donations from entrepreneur Kim Dotcom, who is facing extradition to the United States.

His judgment hinged on the credibility of witnesses’ evidence, telling the court he did not accept evidence from Banks or his wife, Amanda.

Outside the High Court at Auckland yesterday, Banks said: “Since the finding of guilt, fresh, new, unimpeachable, watertight evidence has emerged. That new evidence completely contradicts much of the evidence given in the court.

“We’re looking forward to taking that … to the Court of Appeal.”

The Weekend Herald has learned details of the evidence that will be put before the Court of Appeal in a bid to have Banks’ conviction overturned.

Evidence was given by the Dotcom camp, saying there were American guests on the grounds of the mansion on the day of the lunch but Mr Dotcom, estranged wife Mona and security chief Wayne Tempero said they were not at lunch when the donations were discussed.

The claims were contradicted by Banks in his police interview and Mrs Banks from the witness box. Both insisted there were two others at the lunch – businessmen Mrs Banks believed were Americans. Banks was unsure of their nationality.

Justice Wylie, who also took other evidence into account, said he believed the Dotcoms and did not accept the Banks’ statements.

He also said it was “largely peripheral” because “the key issue was what was said at the lunch”.

In the wake of the judgment, it is understood Banks launched a search for the American guests.

They were eventually tracked to a company in the United States which was a supplier for Mr Dotcom’s defunct website Megaupload, which was brought down in the copyright raid that led to his arrest and possible extradition.

Banks’ team was believed to have sought statements from them.

The new evidence claim was unusually raised by David Jones, QC, in his sentencing submissions to Justice Wylie yesterday. Mr Jones did not return calls but is understood to be filing the appeal papers next week.

Mr Dotcom said last night: “From my recollection, there was no one else at the lunch where the donations were discussed.”

It will be utterly fascinating to learn what these two witnesses have to say.

Stuff reports:

BIGGEST GAFFES

– NZ First MP Richard Prosser for his ‘‘Wogistan’’ rant suggesting young Muslims shouldn’t be allowed to travel on Western airlines because ‘‘most terrorists are Muslims’’.

– Labour MPs Phil Goff, Annette King, Kris Faafoi and Clayton Cosgrove who were wined and dined by SkyCity at its corporate box for a rugby test despite railing against its deal with the Government for a convention centre.

– Key for labelling Wellington a ‘‘dying city’’ while talking to a business group in Auckland and lamenting that ‘‘all you have there is a government, Victoria University and Weta Workshop’’.

– Conservative Party leader Colin Craig for his inability to decisively rule out wackier conspiracy theories like those involving chem trails and the moon landing. ‘‘I take an undecided stand on anything where I don’t have evidence for or against,’’ Craig explained.

– Key again, this time for making international headlines after it was reported he labelled star footballer David Beckham ‘‘thick as batshit’’. Key later told Parliament he didn’t use the word ‘‘batshit’’.

– David Shearer who signed the death certificate on his leadership of the Labour Party after a stunt in which he flourished a couple of dead snapper in Parliament. He was gone two days later.

– Transport Minister Gerry Brownlee for by-passing Christchurch airport security and boarding his flight to Wellington via a side door because he was in a hurry and didn’t have time to queue like other people.

– Labour leader Cunliffe whose comment to a Women’s Refuge symposium that he was ‘‘sorry for being a man’’ did not do him any favours among the 50 odd per cent of New Zealanders who are male.

I must point out that the first two on this list were both broken by me 🙂

Courtesy of John Stringer

Tracy Watkins look at the state of the parties now the House has risen:

National 

Prime Minister John Key and his Government defy convention and are more popular now than they were on election night 2011. 

Heading into the campaign, National is polling in the stratosphere, which, perversely, means it could  lose if complacency takes root and its voters don’t bother to turn up. 

But looking like a done deal to win the election has some advantages, particularly when it comes to getting businesses to open their chequebooks. 

National starts  with a huge war chest and a slick campaign team that knows how to win elections.

Labour 

Still only part-way through the revolution imposed on the caucus by the grassroots, Labour has been too busy warring with itself to take the fight to National. 

It has plenty of foot soldiers and a plan to mobilise the vote in  areas like South Auckland, but it is not clear whether the grassroots are motivated enough to give the plan any grunt.  

Labour’s poor polling has also turned the focus of many MPs inward to their  survival in previously safe seats that could turn if the tide continues to go out, meaning the crucial party-vote message is not getting through. 

We hear, meanwhile, that money is tight, though it is not clear whether that’s because party president Moira Coatsworth has failed to knock on enough doors or because those doors are firmly closed. 

The secret fear that keeps Labour MPs awake at night is an old-fashioned rout.

I think those doors are closed.

The Greens 

The Greens’ leaders, Russel Norman and Metiria Turei, are more match-ready than any of their allies in Opposition. 

They also have a strong team.  The Greens have some of the most talented and energetic people in Parliament working for them. 

Never short of creative capital, they are noted for running slick campaigns, though their  Love New Zealand billboards may have missed the mark.  

A lot of work has gone into matching the creative side with a better-run effort on the ground this election. 

The biggest threat to the Greens is being starved of oxygen by the likely focus on smaller parties like Internet Mana, because of the Dotcom factor, and NZ First,  through its potential importance to National.

NZ First

Winston Peters had plenty of fire in his belly when he launched his comeback on the 2011 campaign trail.

Motivated by pride and thoughts of revenge, he was a formidable and indefatigable opponent.

But did those three years of  fishing and relaxing in his semi-retirement  give Peters a taste of what he has been missing since his return to Parliament? 

Peters will have to scrap hard to raise his party above the 5 per cent threshold yet again. 

Now knocking 70, the Lazarus of New Zealand politics must be wondering whether it is all worth  it.

The NZ First Party list will be interesting.

NBR reports:

LATEST: John Banks says he will take his case to the Court of Appeal.

He told media outside the High Court at Auckland today that new, compelling and unimpeachable evidence had been found.

This followed his sentencing in the Auckland High Court this morning after being convicted under Electoral Act charges.

The former MP maintains his innocence, saying he has never filed a false anything, let alone a false electoral return.

He says new witnesses have now come forward, and that those unnamed witnesses could not be located at the time of the trial.

He did not respond when asked if the evidence was to come from two American businessmen who had been identified at the High Court stage but did not give evidence.

UPDATE: John Banks has avoided prison, and faces two months community detention and 100 hours of community service after being convicted this morning.

The former ACT MP was emotionless in the dock as his sentence was read out in front of a court where it was standing-room-only.

Justice Ed Wylie said the detention is appropriate and includes a curfew of four nights a week where Mr Banks will have to be at his inner city apartment from 7pm.

The curfew applies for two months.

That’s a pretty light sentence.

The ODT reports:

The Green Party is under fire for supporting binge drinking after challenging Dunedin supporters to beat MP Gareth Hughes at a game of ”beer pong”.

However, Mr Hughes said the challenge was an attempt at humour by a Dunedin Green Party member and there was never any intention to play ”beer pong” at the event – which he was attending in North Dunedin tonight.

”I wasn’t actually aware that was on the Facebook invite,” Mr Hughes said.

The Green Party members who organised the invite had since voluntarily removed the reference to beer pong.

Mr Hughes’ comments come after National Addiction Centre director Prof Doug Sellman said it was ”irresponsible” to have politicians encouraging drinking games.

”Essentially … there is an underlying message that binge drinking is a good thing and that the Green Party supports binge drinking.”

Prof Sellman was also critical of Prime Minister John Key, who downed several cups of beer after accepting a challenge to play beer pong at the Big Gay Out in Auckland in February.

”It’s the same thing, and to have the prime minister [doing it] is even worse.

Beer pong must be banned, says the wowsers.

Next they’ll try and ban Whizz Bang Boing!

I am rather bad at the former game but very good at the latter!

The Herald reports:

An elite police criminal profiler built a psychological model of the murderer who killed the Crewes – and ruled out the motive detectives say drove Arthur Allan Thomas to commit the crime.

The profiler also diminished the role of Jeannette Crewe in any motive, saying a dispute between her husband Harvey and the killer likely festered for four years until the murder was committed through a “distorted desire to punish”. …

The profiler identified up to six criminal acts against the Crewes in the four years before their murders. They included a burglary in 1967, a fire in the Crewes’ nursery in 1968 and the destruction by fire of a hay barn in 1969 – the year before the double murder.

The pattern showed “escalating criminal progression”.

“Someone did not like them and their hatred was evolving over time. The burglary and fires were precursor offences by the perpetrator of the murders.”

The criminal profile said the killer knew the Crewes well and “wanted to intimidate” and “possibly drive them out of the district”.

If Ewen Macdonald was alive in 1970, I’d suggest they go interview him 🙂

I used to think it was Len Demler, but who knows.

Stuff reports:

In its last act before the elections, Parliament today outlawed the practices behind slave-like fishing practices in New Zealand waters.

From May 2016, foreign charter fishing vessels (FCV) – some of which have committed human rights and labour abuses – will have to fly New Zealand flags and obey New Zealand laws.

This is excellent. I’ve written many times on this subject, demanding change. I was delighted when the Government announced they would requite ships catching NZ quota to be flagged in NZ, and it is great to see that decision given legislative force.

The abuses on some FCVs were horrendous – sexual abuse, near indenture, wages with illegal deductions. These may still happen in some areas, but no longer in NZ waters by boats catching NZ quota.

Bob Jones writes:

I never thought anything could top Laila Harre’s 2002 defeat explanation with her “Unfortunately the public voted with their heads”, but by God there’s been some serious challenges, notably from Laila herself. Even the most hardened hacks were dumbstruck by her protest at allowing her boss into the country. But she was immediately trumped by Dotcom himself, who agreed it was an outrage. If he feels that strongly then America, where he’s destined to end up anyway, will give him a big hello, plus free accommodation for a very long time, although decidedly smaller than his current abode.

Yes, the Internet Party is the only party I now that is outraged and demanding an inquiry into why their founder was allowed into New Zealand!

Colin Craig continues to delight. Explaining away his nutty image, he instead cemented it by saying, “It was logical to platform off the rhetoric already being discussed”. Psychiatrists are banned from entering, but there’s a trip to Upper Volta for anyone making sense of that. Having lost female voters after declaring New Zealand women promiscuous, Colin is now targeting homosexuals by an advertising campaign showing him lying in long grass with a come-hither look. Missing is a rose stem between his teeth.

Heh.

To add to the madness, Labour’s normally sane Andrew Little, jealous of Trevor Mallard’s moa headlines, declared men charged with sex crimes will be automatically guilty unless they can prove their innocence. Then to further alienate male voters, Labour’s serial apologiser leader, at least for the next two months, chimed in, unbelievably apologising for being a man. 

Labour’s war on men!

But the clear winner in the lunacy stakes is New Zealand First’s Asenati Lole-Taylor for her insistence that the Reserve Bank is owned by foreigners. 

I agree, it is hard to top that.

The latest Transtasman notes:

The tawdry cry of media bias, marinated in bitterness and misanthropy, has been held aloft by Labour activitists. They have a point, but not the one they think they are making. How journalists’ view political parties is affected by many factors, and individual political biases and prejudgements is only one of them – and seldom the most important. Almost every journalist in the press gallery has tales of slow or non-existent response from Labour to requests for information, or of interviews/appearances agreed to and  then “pulled” at the last minute.

It isn’t a matter of incompetent staff: the almost total turnover in the past three years is only one indication something deeper is the problem.

No one knows what is going on because people who should be told are not told, and the big reason for this is internal levels of mistrust are so toxic.

It adds up to an organisation – and we use the word ‘organisation’ with some degree of over-stretch here – which cannot do the political equivalent of walk from Mum’s car to the kindergarten gate with out having a trouser incident. 

And of course this affects coverage.

Journalists experience this level of cluster-fornication every day and it has a deep impact. And this is before we get to the public snafus, the destructive and bitter factionalism and the way many electorate candidates are distancing themselves from the current, official election strategy. Almost everything Labour does at the moment sends the message it is in no position to run anything.

If there is a tone of disrespect in how journalists cover Labour – and there very definitely is – it is because Labour is not behaving in a way which earns respect.

The scary thing is that despite this level of toxicity, they could end up in Government in 51 days. It only needs a 4% swing or so and Labour could form a Government with the Greens, NZ First, Mana and Dotcom parties.

I saw in the NBR Rich List is that a new entry is Josef Roberts with an estimated $100m. he is 52. The Herald reports that Roberts was bankrupted before he was 30.

I find that quite inspiring. No one likes to fail, but it is how you respond to failure that can define you. Roberts didn’t give up on a career in business, but learnt from his mistakes.

In business there is no reward without risk. That is the tension always there. Failure for some is inevitable, and I admire those who carry on.

I hate that the Police have become the wowsers of New Zealand. Well, not quite. They all enjoy a drink themselves, but advocate nanny state for everyone else.

Radio NZ reports:

The police are proposing a six-year ban on any new bars and bottle stores in central Auckland and other regional hot-spots.

Why not just go back to prohibition also.

As a minimum, police want a freeze on the number of liquor licences in some areas. But they would rather have a sinking lid policy, under which no new licences are given even if other bars or shops close down.

Which will probably just lead to more drinking in cars, parks and homes.

Peter McCaffery has noted the similarities. He hopes Telecom didn’t pay their designers too much money!

UPDATE: Telecom comments:

* The Telus Spark logo displayed doesn’t seem anything like their main logo (see link below) although it seems they use a similar graphic device in some circumstances  http://www.sparkscience.ca/

*Whatever the similarities might be, Telus Spark the Science Centre opened in Oct 2011 – two years after Telecom started using the ‘spark’ logo as part of our 2009 rebranding.

Seems to be great minds think alike then!

Christopher Dempsey is a City Vision (Labour/Greens) board member on the Auckland Council Waitemata Local Board.

Matthew Beveridge details a Facebook exchange between Dempsey and Councillor Dick Quax. In a discussion over Jamie Whyte’s speech, Demosey says”

and in the afternoon I saw you picking up children from Vick Ave Primary – I should have pushed you into the gutter

It then gets even more charming as you’ll see over the link.

Residents of Waitemata should feel proud they have such a classy elected representative.