Kiwiblog

This graph from the NZ Initiative is an insightful one. It shows the massive increase in real spending per capita up until 2009 and the fiscal restraint that has occurred since then.

Imagine if the growth from 2002 to 2009 had continued? Wed be approaching Greece.

The Dom Post reports:

A Large chunk of Porirua’s MegaCentre has been sold for over $30 million to Nelson-based property investor Gaire Thompson.

It is the second recent local major retail property deal where big Australian corporates have sold to local buyers.

The Xenophobes get all worked up when foreign companies buy almost anything in New Zealand. I love hearing Russel Norman rail against foreign investment in his Australian accent.

But foreign investors can’t take land and buildings with them. And as we see here, they do not just buy NZ assets – in time they often sell them also. If you ban them from buying, it means you actually reduce options for NZ buyers and sellers.

Stuff reports:

The only way the Government could create affordable homes was to build them and Labour had a plan to do just that, Shearer said.

This is like reading the old socialist manifestos about nationalising the means of production.

I’m not sure who is writing the words that David Shearer utters, but consider the mind set that the only way you can make something affordable is to have the Government do it.

Then consider where such a mind set ends up.

If only the Government can create affordable houses, why allow the private sector to build any houses at all? Who wants unaffordable houses?

I mean government monopolies have a great track record of affordability, don’t they?

Putting aside the lurch to the left, the economics is woeful also. Look at the four major factors in building a house.

1. Land
2. Consenting
3. Construction
4. Profit/Return on Capital

Labour is saying that only one of those four things matter. They are ignoring the factors that almost every expert group has said contribute to increasing house prices, and focusing on the one where they can demonise the private sector.

They also miss the point that it is not only about building new houses that are cheaper, but how to reduce houses prices overall. 95% of house buyers will be buying an existing house and section.

Freeing up land supply reduces the cost of land throughout an entire city. It will reduce inflationary pressures on pretty much all houses, except perhaps the most exclusive areas.

Building an extra 10,000 houses without freeing up more land, may (if you even accept their figures) means the lucky few who win the right to get one of those houses will benefit – but it will do nothing for the other 95% of home buyers.

Tracy Neal at the Nelson Mail reports:

St Arnaud farmer Richard Osmaston is pushing his crusade for a moneyless economy by standing for mayor of Nelson.

He should stand as a Green Party candidate. The Greens want to print money, which of course devalues it. So given enough time you would have a moneyless economy.

He said he believed in the need for a revolution from a monetary-based economy to a resource-based one, where everything was free and all work was voluntary, because humanity was looking at social breakdown like never before.

Again Greens are against all work testing for welfare, so I think this is a real opportunity for them,

We All Want to be Young infographic

I especially like how my generation is about living in search of guiltless pleasures.

This week France just achieved the rare distinction of undergoing a triple dip recession.

A year ago France elected a socialist President. Since then the French economy has shrunk for three out of four quarters, with the overall economy 0.5% smaller than a year ago. That compares to around 3% annual growth in New Zealand.

The Civilian did its own take on the Budget. Some highlights:

• $1.7 billion to buy back Mighty River Power after Tony Ryall began missing it.

• $1 billion to build roads that go around Hamilton instead of through it.

• $64 for Bill English to get his printer fixed.

• $500 in legal fees for Colin Craig.

• $800 million to Gore, just to see what happens.

• $30,000 for production of Air New Zealand safety video starring Maurice Williamson.

• $170,000 for undercover double agent speech writer for David Shearer.

• $20,000 to figure out why a McDonald’s deluxe cheeseburger costs less than a regular one.

• $250 million to make the transformers in the national grid look more like the ones in the movie Transformers.

I especially like the $800 million for Gore, as an experiment.

Stuff reports:

However, critics seized on the state housing shakeup. Labour Party leader David Shearer said tenants would be “really worried”, as the Government was trying to push social housing on to private providers to save money.

What a stupid thing to say. The extension of income related rents to other social housing providers will not save the Government money – it will in fact cost them tens of millions of dollars as more low income families get subsidised rents.

The Opposition’s job is to oppose, but they should at least understand what they are talking about.

Those who want Budget data can check out:

1. Keith Ng has lots of data visualisations
2. Stuff has interactive data also
3. Stuff also has a tax-o-meter which shows how much tax you pay every day and what it goes on
4. Maxim has a tax tracker app which also looks at your tax on an annual basis

Stuff reports:

A Hutt Valley man who was filmed walking around a supermarket while claiming he needed a wheelchair has lost a battle to get his ACC payments back.

Wiremu Brightwell had appealed against a 2010 ACC decision, stripping him of his disability allowance.

But in Wellington District Court Judge David Ongley found he “probably wilfully exaggerated his symptoms and presented a severe disability that was not caused by his covered personal injury”.

Up until 2010, Mr Brightwell had cover for an injury from 1993, when he was hit on the side of his head by an exploding tyre and rim.

ACC medical adviser Martin Robb examined him in 2010, and told ACC that, in his opinion, Mr Brightwell was “malingering”.

“He did not appear to be in pain, but on entering the surgery in his wheelchair appeared to be very moribund, unable to operate the controls of his wheelchair,” Dr Robb said.

“Despite his apparently moribund state, he was able to answer questions quickly and appropriately with a clear but quiet voice.”

Although Mr Brightwell claimed to be largely bedridden, he had “good musculature with no sign of muscle wasting”.

Even if Mr Brightwell does need to be in a wheel chair (which is doubtful), there are jobs you can do from a wheelchair. Many wheelchair bound people can and do work.

Eric Crampton blogs:

A few months ago, Social Service Providers Aotearoa asked me to review the literature on school breakfast programmes and provide an assessment of whether public funding of school breakfast programmes offered value for money. I spoke on the issue in Wellington and in Christchurch in February. As the government seems to be looking at the Mana Party’s proposals around food in schools, it seems worth posting things here as summary.

I was only looking at school breakfast programmes, and so I can’t here comment on school lunch programmes. I’m not sure why we’d expect results to vary greatly, but it’s worth having the caveat.

Anyway, on my best read of the literature, it’s hard to make a case for that we’d get any great benefit from the programmes. Rather, we often find that they don’t even increase the odds that kids eat breakfast at all. Many shift breakfast from at-home to at-school, but among those who hadn’t bothered with breakfast before the programme, not many wind up starting when schools provide it. You can then get kids reporting that they’re less hungry as consequence of the programmes, but it’s awfully hard to reject that the main thing going on is that kids are eating at 9 at school instead of at 7 at home and are consequently less hungry when asked at 11.

This is what tends to happen with any programme or subsidy that is not targeted.

If you (for example) make medical insurance tax deductible, it doesn’t tend to increase the number of people with medical insusrance. It just allows fairly well off people to pay less tax.

Very few kids don’t have breakfast because their parents can’t afford one. They cost very very little if done at home. By comparison, they cost a lot if done centrally.

A legislated requirement for the Government to provide breakfasts for all school children is a bad way to try and solve the problem of kinds turning up at school unfed.

Stuff reports:

The person suspected of leaking confidential Cabinet papers about restructuring at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has appealed against a decision that could have identified them.

It is not clear yet whether leading public servant Paula Rebstock, who heads the leak inquiry, intends to name the person she suspects. She acknowledges she does not have proof.

Drafts of her report into the leak, which happened in May last year, do not name the person known only as “A”, but States Services Commissioner Iain Rennie, who ordered the report, already knows who “A” is.

“A” took action in the High Court about the way the inquiry has progressed, and to protect his or her identity.

Justice Robert Dobson’s decision was made public yesterday. He said “A” did not have legal grounds for complaint if the report was going only to Mr Rennie.

But if it was to be made public, “A” should be given more information about the grounds for Ms Rebstock’s suspicions, should have a chance to respond and have it considered.

The decision isn’t online but the outcome seems clear. Person A must be very worried if he or she is appealing to the Court of Appeal.

I’m sure there is an innocent reason for why Person A scanned in and copied a confidential Cabinet paper. We all await to hear his or her explanation.

The Herald reported:

Auckland Mayor Len Brown is backing down in the face of a citywide revolt against high-rise apartments and infill housing in a new planning rulebook for the city.

Mr Brown says the council will reduce heights proposed in some coastal suburbs and around town centres where apartment buildings butt into residential streets.

“We have had a lot of feedback and concern expressed going from a one- or two-level home to a four- or five-level apartments right on the boundary,” he said, adding better rules were needed.

He dropped hints that the coastal suburbs of Milford and St Heliers could see a reduction in eight- and four-storey buildings respectively. The Herald understands Mt Eden could be spared four-storey apartments tucked behind the self-styled shopping village.

Any back down will probably be the least they can get away with.

I loved this line:

Credit where credit is due. The Labour Party has finally adopted one of the very sensible policies of the National Government, and that is the Mixed Ownership Model. That’s right, these days the Labour Party is 51% owned by Labour and 49% owned by the Greens

Heh.

Isaac Davidson at NZ Herald reports:

Dame Susan Devoy was the second choice for the role of Race Relations Commissioner, official documents show, but she received a glowing assessment from the panel who interviewed her for the job. …

The interview panel, made up of Defence Ministry chief Helene Quilter, NZ Post Group chief Brian Roche and Secretary for Justice Andrew Bridgman, said Dame Susan demonstrated good insight into the range of issues the commissioner would have to face.

They emphasised that she had a particular interest in Maori and Pacific Island unemployment, had good communication skills and was capable of making complex information accessible to a broad audience.

“Dame Susan satisfied the panel she would be a sensible and intelligent voice for race relations issues.”

The panel also noted that she had governance experience, mature judgment and good media skills.

Members said either Dame Susan or another unnamed candidate – revealed to be former All Black Michael Jones – had the ability and mana to be commissioner, but Mr Jones was the stronger candidate because of his “greater immersion in a world in which race issues are ever present”.

He decided to turn down the five-year post for family reasons.

Some would have you think Ministers are personally selecting appointees, but for both recent HRC appointments the appointee was the highest rated applicant (who was available) by a neutral interview panel.

Have been in the Budget lock up since 10.30 am. Some key details of the 2013 Budget are:

Surplus

• The 2014/15 surplus projection remains razor thing – $75m, but projected to increase to $2.6 billion in 2016/17.
• The deficit was $18.4 billion in 2010/11, will be around $6.3 billion for the current year and projected to be just $2.0 billion next year.
• Over five budgets a total of $15 billion of spending has been reprioritised (eg cuts in one areas to allow new initiatives to be funded)

Expenditure

• Core crown expenses to increase by $5.5 billion over four years but dropping from 35% of GDP to below 31%.
• This is a key strategy – that expenditure growth is less than economic growth. Expenditure grew at 6.1% annually from 2003 to 2012, but will only grow 2.7% annually over next four years.

Debt

• Net debt projected to peak at 29% of GDP in 2014/15
• Net debt projected to be 18% by 2010 2020, compared to 60% which was the 2009 projection before policy changes
• Contributions to NZ Super Fund will not resume until net crown debt is below 20% of GDP

Research & Development

• An extra $100m a year for internationally-focused growth opportunities in research & development, tourism and education marketing
• Research and development funding to increase to $1.36 billion in 2013/14, 28% higher than four years ago

ACC

• Projected ACC levy reductions of $300m in 2014/15 and $1 billion the following year, resulting in levies being 40% lower than in 2011
• Both households and businesses will benefit from lower ACC levies. A $1 billion reduction is around $500 per household, but no details yet on exact changes to employee and employer levies.

Asset Sales

• Total Crown Assets forecast to grow from $250 billion to $273 billion
• $1.5 billion of spending from the partial asset sales including $426m to redevelop Christchurch hospitals, $94 million for Kiwirail, $80 million for irrigation, $50 million for school networks
• Meridian Energy to be floated later this year, probably October

Housing

• $100m over three years for home insulations for low-income of high health needs households which should cover 46,000 homes on top of 230,000 homes already done
• $27m over four years to extend income-related rents to community housing providers
• Special housing areas as agreed by Government and Councils will have streamlined (faster) consenting under a new law
• Reviewable tenancies will be extended to all social housing tenants, to ensure those in the most need can get into social housing. Will actually increase government spending as rents by tenants to Housing NZ will on average be lower
• MSD not Housing NZ to assess housing needs, so Housing NZ can focus on being an excellent social housing provider
• Housing Warrant of Fitness to be developed and trialled, starting with state houses

Health

• $1.6 billion over four years for frontline health services

Education

• $900 million more for education including $173 million over four years for early childhood education.
• ECE spending now $1.5 billion compared to $860 million in 2007/08
• Education spending now 7.2% of GDP, compared to OECD average of 5.8%

Christchurch

• An extra $2.1 billion for Christchurch increasing Crown contribution to $15.2 billion
• Total cost of Christchurch rebuild now estimated to be 20% of annual GDP

General

• $189m over four years for welfare reforms and helping people into work
• Economic growth over next three years projected to be higher than US, Canada, UK, the Euro zone and Japan
• The 11% earning over $80,000 will contribute 49% of all personal income tax collected

I’ve got an article in the Dominion Post tomorrow where I do a more detailed commentary. My overall take is that it is a good Budget for 2013 – still on track for a surplus, a big drop in ACC levies and significant extra spending in priority areas.

But next year’s Budget will need to be the one which spells out the vision, post getting back to surplus.

The Herald reports:

The Department of Internal Affairs has warned the Government that extra pokie machines at SkyCity, resulting from its convention centre deal, risks increased harm to the community, Steven Joyce confirmed yesterday.

Gambling opponents cite research suggesting the extra 230 pokie machines alone could cost society as much as $6.6 million a year. But with the Government touting a $90 million annual boost to the Auckland economy from the international convention centre, Cabinet “decided on balance that it was best to go with the deal”, Economic Development Minister Mr Joyce said.

That’s a 13:1 benefit to cost ratio. Not even close to marginal.

Costs at a glance

230 extra pokie machines at SkyCity
184 extra problem gamblers
$36,000 a year’s potential cost to society of each problem gambler
$6.6m total annual cost to society of additional problem gamblers
$90m annual injection into the economy from the international convention centre

They loo pretty good numbers to me. 800 more people in jobs.

Was in Parliament yesterday for Jackie Blue’s valedictory speech. It was a nice reminder that you can achieve things in Parliament as a List MP. Some extracts:

While I was a new MP in 2005, Herceptin became high-profile, with many countries funding a 12-month course for a particularly aggressive form of breast cancer. It was being used for treatment in metastatic breast cancer in New Zealand, but the trials were showing that it was reducing death in early stage, newly diagnosed breast cancer. I am grateful that Tony gave me the opportunity to advocate for 12-months’ Herceptin funding for women with breast cancer in New Zealand. I was extraordinarily proud when John Key made this a National Party election promise in 2008. One of the most marvellous memories from my time in Parliament was shortly after the November 2008 election, when I joined Tony, who was the new Minister of Health , and key officials from the Ministry of Health and Pharmac. The meeting was to work through the logistics of ensuring that the women who needed Herceptin had access to it by Christmas 2008. The timing was very tight, but it was a case of “Yes, Minister.” at its very best. Everyone worked together to ensure that the policy rolled out smoothly. With results of recent trials, time has proved that funding 12 months’ Herceptin was the right decision. Twelve months is considered to be the international gold standard.

A decision that has helped save lives.

Early in 2008 I met with a group of refugee and migrant doctors who were meeting regularly at the Auckland Regional Migrant Service , or ARMS, in Mount Roskill. The group had been struggling to get registration with the New Zealand Medical Council . They were frustrated that we did not have a bridging programme like Australia had. Over several years they had made successive approaches to health Ministers without making any traction. They were meeting regularly at the Auckland Regional Migrant Service to study and to support each other, and I would like to acknowledge the amazing support that Dr Mary Dawson and Anna Fyfe-Rahal from the service have been providing to this group. Without their support and encouragement, I am quite sure that this group would have disbanded long ago. My heart went out to these doctors. After the election I re-established contact with the group and began to meet with them each month. I went back to Tony Ryall and I said that we simply had to do something for them. Tony was very supportive and agreed that I could start investigating options, and I began discussions with the Ministry of Health and the Medical Council. However, when Professor Des Gorman, chair of Health Workforce New Zealand, got involved in the latter part of 2009, the project developed a momentum all of its own. The NZREX preparation placement programme began in 2011 and has been hugely successful, with 33 out of 38 migrant doctors passing the Medical Council registration exam. This programme has been truly life changing for those doctors and their families.

Stuff like this often flies below the media radar.

 It has been the work of these committees that has left me utterly convinced that society must back its women and girls. Women make up one-half of the world’s human capital. No society can achieve its full potential when half the population is denied the opportunity to achieve theirs. Empowering and educating women and girls is fundamental to succeeding and prospering in the ever more competitive world. This is particularly true in developing countries but it is also absolutely relevant in developed countries like New Zealand. As women progress, everyone in society progresses, including men and boys. Tapping into the potential of women and girls is not only the right thing; it is the smart thing. Sexual reproductive health and rights and education go hand in hand. When women have the opportunity to control their fertility and have access to reproductive health services they are more likely to stay in education, get employment, and provide for their family. Education leads to more choices and opportunities.

All true.

Mark Mitchell speaking on Todd McClay’s bill to prohibit gang patches being worn inside government buildings:

I would just like to talk about one of my first contacts with gangs. It was as a police dog handler working in Rotorua. For those who have lived in Rotorua, who are either in the police or even just as residents and members of the community, will be very aware of the old Mongrel Mob headquarters on Sala Street. When I first started there we had two young ladies come to the police station obviously in a terribly distressed state, and, in fact, one of them probably to this day has not recovered from what she had to endure at the hands of the Mongrel Mob at their pad on Sala Street. What had happened to them is that the Mongrel Mob had two young prospects and one of them was her cousin. As part of their initiation, as part of their pathway towards earning a gang patch, they had been instructed to entice these two young girls—15 and 16—down to the gang pad. Once they got them down there, they then proceeded to put them on what the gang members called the block, and they were gang-raped by patched gang members and the prospects were forced or encouraged to rape them also. So I just want to be very clear that when we are in this House and we are talking about gang patches, we actually understand clearly what a gang patch means and what it signifies. What it means is that when you see a gang member walking around patched up with a gang patch on, it is telling you, it is telling us, the rest of the people in the community, that they have committed crimes against us, and that they have probably committed violent crimes against us.

Gang patches are a form on intimidation. Now I didn’t support the law change for Wanganui District Council as that sought to prohibit patches in public anywhere – and that goes too far. But I think the Government has every right to ban them in buildings such as WINZ offices and courts.

Mr Goff got up and said that currently there are laws available to deal with gang members who decide to wear their patches and intimidate people. He quoted the Trespass Act . Well, what happens with the Trespass Act is that someone has to trespass a gang member. I am telling you now that people are intimidated. Who is going to stand up and say: “I am going to take a step and I am going to trespass someone.”? We are removing that from them. We are removing the intimidation and fear from that person with this piece of legislation.

I’d rather not be the person who has to trespass a gang member to their face.

There is one submission that I do want to refer back to. It was made by Jacob Te Kurapa from the Murupara Area School . Murupara, of course, is in Mr McClay’s electorate. Murupara has got social issues that it is constantly facing and tackling. It has a big gang presence down there with the Black Power , the Tribesmen , the Mongrel Mob . In his submission he said: “Children and students do not need to see gang insignia plastered about our school they need to be protected from it.

Gang patches should have no place in schools.

National, ACT, United Future and NZ First voted for the bill’s second reading. Labour, Greens, Maori and Mana voted against – defending the right of gang members to wear patches in schools etc.

Joelle Daly at Stuff reports:

Corrections Minister Anne Tolley wants to keep 24-hour tabs on serious domestic violence offenders – the same way high-risk and sex offenders are tracked.

The move comes after Christchurch man Nikki Roper was found guilty of murdering his ex-girlfriend, Alexsis Tovizi, only days after he was released from jail for a previous assault on the 21-year-old mother.

The killing, in December 2010, happened despite a protection order she had in place.

Protection orders are sadly of little benefit when the offender breaches them. It takes too long for a breach to lead to action.

Twenty-four hour GPS monitoring, announced last June, means Corrections are alerted to intervene if a tracked offender strays into a designated exclusion zone.

It must be imposed by the Parole Board or sentencing judge, and currently applies only to high-risk and child sex offenders.

However, in light of the Alexsis Tovizi case, Tolley said she had instructed officials to investigate how this could be extended under current legislation to cover domestic violence offenders.

“We want to do everything that we can to prevent and deter any would-be perpetrators.

“If this can stop one potential victim from being harmed, then it will be worth it.”

This could be a life saver. If the offender’s enters an area they have been banned from entering, then Police could be immediately notified and get there in time to save a life.

I imagine it would be used only when someone has already been convicted of threats and/or violence against someone and there is a significant risk of them causing further harm.

This table is from Stats Chat.

So every country thinks Germans are the most trustworthy, except the Greece who think they are!

For least trustworthy, the British choose the French (fair enough), three countries choose Greece, Italy chooses itself (which is hilarious but perceptive) and Greece and Poland choose Germany. Maybe due to invasions but how do Poles say Germany is both most and least?

France and Germany are the only two countries chosen for most arrogant (also fair enough) while interestingly citizens of each country choose themselves as most compassionate – which suggest we see compassion locally.

Truth reports:

ONE OF Auckland’s top cops has been boasting about having Deputy Police Commissioner Mike Bush sacked when his brother, Labour leader David Shearer, becomes Prime Minister.

Alan Shearer is the former Manurewa Area Police Commander and used to work under Bush during the years he spent as Counties Manukau district commander.

It is understood some bad blood exists between the pair after Bush removed him as Manurewa Area Commander into a new job at Counties Manukau where he is responsible for “planning and ending family violence” in South Auckland. …

A well-placed police source confirmed that Shearer had been “running his mouth off around town” about having Bush sacked once his brother David became Prime Minister.

“He’s been badmouthing Mike Bush. He is bitter and telling police officers in Counties Manukau that when his brother is Prime Minister he’s going to get Mike Bush,” the source told Truth.

“Alan Shearer is pissed off about being removed from his personal fiefdom in Manurewa and holds Bush responsible.”

Truth attempted to speak to Alan Shearer but he did not return calls.

I couldn’t work out why Labour would declare Mike Bush unsuitable to be Commissioner just on the basis of some ill-judged comments at a funeral. Is there a personal feud involved?

MPs are not responsible for their family members – but if the family member is boasting of using their relatives influence for their own purposes, they need to clearly state their family member is not speaking for them.