The fun police

September 23rd, 2014 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

The Press reports:

A University of Canterbury student club has offended “everyone possible” with cars and costumes poking fun at women, Islam, Malaysia Airlines and the deadly ebola crisis.

The RoUndie 500, organised by the Engineering Society (Ensoc), has caused a stir with newly-formed feminist club FemSoc after its members saw a car showing images of about 30 women ranked by supposed desirability.

It was then discovered the club was encouraging participants to choose themes “the more inappropriate the better” on its Facebook page ahead of last weekend’s event.

One of FemSoc’s 400 members, Annamarie Moot, 20, said the event “ticked off every bad thing in the book”.

There were also teams using themes around ebola, Malaysia Airlines and Islam.

“They’re just offending everyone possible,” Moot said.

Yep, that is what offensive humour is about. Shall we ban 7 Days, because it also has offensive humour?

She had heard some girls pictured on the car were friends of the team and would have known about it “but it’s still very degrading”.

So she’s offended on behalf of the girls – even though the girls may actually have approved themselves.

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MP won’t say who he works for

September 23rd, 2014 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

The Herald reported:

The lowest-ranked NZ First MP is refusing to say what job he did before politics.

And his leader Winston Peters is also refusing to say what his 11th-ranked MP Mahesh Bindra does for a living.

“I can tell you, he’s not a spy,” said Mr Peters this morning.

Mr Bindra, who came in at number 11 on the party list, is currently employed in the public service but will not say which department he works for.

“The (public service) Code of Conduct doesn’t allow me to say the department I worked for.”

Total crap. It does not. Scores of other public servants have stated what their current job is, when they stand for Parliament.

Mr Peters said he believed Mr Bindra had signed an agreement with his employer which stopped him from disclosing where he worked.

“When you are working for a government department, they sign a confidentiality form. If you’ve signed a document, you’re still caught by the document you have signed.”

Mr Peters said he would not disclose Mr Bindra’s employment because doing so would break a confidence.

I suspect Mr Peters has been misled. No department would include in a confidentiality agreement that you can’t reveal you work for them – except the SIS.

He said it was “utterly correct” the public should know about any candidates employment background and hoped it could be revealed tomorrow.

After the election!j
.

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I said the economy was an issue that matters

September 23rd, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

Consumers voted with their wallets at the weekend.

National was a vote for good economic times but a vote for Labour-Greens was risking bad times, according to a bank survey.

The latest Westpac McDermott Miller survey of consumer confidence shows 46 per cent expected good times for the next three years under a National government.

But under a Labour-Greens government just 14 per cent would have expected good times ahead, while 40 per cent would have expected bad times.

“The stark contrast in expectations of good economic times over the next three years under the two putative governments must have been a major factor underlying the return of a National-led government,” McDermott Miller managing director Richard Miller said.

It was. When only 14% of consumers think they will have good times under a Labour-Greens Government, of course they’re not going to do well.

The economy matters to people. It is not an abstract issue. The health and education systems matter. The welfare system matters, and having safer communities matters.

As Lew points out on Kiwipolitico, National ran a campaign based on reality.

The Westpac survey found consumer confidence was a net positive +27% if National won, and a net negative -26% if Labour/Greens won. It is not surprising that New Zealanders did not vote to have a government and an economy that they thought would leave them worse off.

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More election stats

September 23rd, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

Some more election stats:

  • Labour won the party vote in only five general electorates, down from 14 last time
  • National beat Labour by 23.4% nationwide, 22.7% in Auckland, 13.7% in Wellington, 24.9% in Christchurch, 25.0% in provincial NZ and 40.9% in rural NZ
  • Labour’s party vote dropped by 3.4% in Auckland and Wellington and 2.4% in Christchurch
  • Greens got 16.6% party vote in Wellington. Conservatives got 5.2% in rural NZ
  • Internet Mana went up 0.5% the three main cities but dropped 3.3% party vote in the Maori seats. Maori did not like selling out to Kim Dotcom.
  • The best party vote for National was Tamaki at 66.6%
  • National got over 50% party vote in 35 seats while Labour were below 20% in 23 seats and unbelievably below 15% in 13 seats!
  • NZ First got over 5% in 66 of 71 seats
  • Greens got 28.1% party vote in Wellington Central
  • The Conservatives got over 5% party vote in five 19 seats (typo)
  • Labour came third in the party vote in four seats – Bay of Plenty, Helensville, Tauranga and Wellington Central
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Berners-Lee on net neutrality

September 23rd, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

The Herald reports:

A quarter-century ago, Timothy Berners-Lee designed the world’s first Web browser and server, kicking off a thing that people started calling the World Wide Web.

In a visit to The Washington Post, on Thursday, Berners-Lee said that system is now in danger from Internet service providers (ISPs) who stand to amass too much power over what was intentionally built as a decentralised network – one where no single actor could dictate outcomes to everyone else.

Berners-Lee pushed back against opponents of net neutrality regulation who argue that applying new rules on ISPs is tantamount to regulating the Internet.

There’s a difference between regulating providers of broadband and the services that run on top of it, said Berners-Lee. Strong net neutrality rules would help preserve that line dividing the two and limit the incentive of ISPs to meddle in the market for services.

I agree with Sir Tim..

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Two post-election mistakes that will haunt Cunliffe

September 23rd, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

David Cunliffe had a reasonable chance of not being challenged for his job despite the loss, but he has made a challenge almost inevitable. It wasn’t foregone as Grant Robertson is incredibly nervous about standing and losing for a second time.

The first mistake was Cunliffe’s election night speech. It sounded like a victory speech at times.

Stuff reports:

Leader David Cunliffe’s demeanour will fuel their rage.

Cunliffe found many factors to blame for Labour’s defeat – the economy, being starved of oxygen by dirty politics, the Dotcom bomb and secret surveillance, and the party’s utter failure to fundraise.

But the one finger he did not point was at himself.

Another Stuff article reported:

Behind the scenes, the finger pointing began in earnest, with some in the caucus questioning Cunliffe’s commitment to win the election.

One suggested he gave up on the election campaign weeks ago and shifted his attention to manoeuvring to launch a primary campaign as quickly as possible.

This is the other big issue that has pissed the caucus off. Cunliffe gave up on winning the election and started focusing on how to remain leader.

The Herald reported:

In an apparent attempt to get a headstart on any likely rival, Mr Cunliffe effectively started his re-election campaign on election night by sending out an email to the party members and unionists who vote on the leadership.

In that email, obtained by the Herald, he said the party needed to refresh and modernise. “That’s why I will be seeking a new mandate from the party, the affiliates and the caucus by the end of the year.”

So get this. He actually had the e-mail written declaring he wants to stay on as leader, before the election, and his focus on election night was not what went wrong, but how to keep his job.

These two things have galvanised the caucus, and many activists. Former President Mike Williams has effectively said he thinks Cunliffe should go, and Mike is a very astute and connected observer of Labour.

The Herald further reports:

Labour MPs will demand David Cunliffe release potentially embarrassing internal polling results on his popularity to them in caucus as part of a brutally frank post-mortem of Labour’s dismal election campaign.

The party’s new caucus will meet for the first time today to review what went wrong and Mr Cunliffe’s wish to put his leadership to the vote. Mr Cunliffe will face calls to release Labour’s tightly guarded internal polling and focus group research – something that could be potentially embarrassing to him.

Several MPs said with the rest of the party under scrutiny over its performance, caucus should be also able to assess how much of a factor his own leadership was in the result. Labour’s polling company, UMR Research, polls on how favourable voters’ impressions are of the party leader and other key MPs – but the results are closely held by the leadership team.

If David Cunliffe won’t share Labour’s polling with his caucus, maybe the Labour MPs should ask National if they can see National’s polling on leader favourability. Steven Joyce might be quite co-operative :-)

Stuff looks at the contenders for leader and deputy:

  • David Cunliffe
  • Grant Robertson
  • David Shearer
  • David Parker
  • Jacinda Ardern
  • Andrew Little
  • Stuart Nash
  • Nanaia Mahuta
  • Annette King
  • Sue Moroney
  • Chris Hipkins

So over one third of the Labour caucus fancy themselves as leader or deputy leader. This is going to be fun!

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General Debate 23 September 2014

September 23rd, 2014 at 8:00 am by Kokila Patel
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The delusional left

September 23rd, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

A petition has been set up demanding a recount of the election, as it was rigged:

Something doesn’t seem right with recent the New Zealand election. Evidence of fraudulent voting and it makes no sense that people would local vote left and party vote right. Is this another case of Electoral Fraud?

First of all it is sad the petition creator and signers do not understand MMP. This is exactly how it should work.

In 2002 the reverse happened with National. National got 31% electorate vote but only 21% party vote. However you did not see delusional national supporters demanding a recount.

The sadder thing is that 8,357 delusional people have signed the petition. The reason for this will be they live in enclaves. They will not have any friends who vote National. In fact they won’t have any friends who do not hate the Government. If you don’t share their strong political beliefs, then they won’t associate with you.

So they live in their little bubbles, and when an election result occurs which shows that New Zealand as a whole is different to their little enclave, they don’t wonder if they need a wider circle of friends – they conclude that the election was rigged.

I’ve got many friends who do not share my political views. Some are swinging voters. Some are Labour activists or Green activists. I count a NZ First MP as a mate. I’m involved in organisations where we have a huge diversity of political opinion on the boards. I’ve been involved in many multi-party campaigns such as Keep It 18 and Marriage Equality.

Some of my favourite nights out have been with members of Young Labour, where we debate politics until 1 am in the morning when the poor Chinese restaurant we are at finally throws us out.

Most on the left are not enclaved. But a fair few are. I don’t think it is healthy to effectively be detached from the wider community. And alleging the election was rigged, because you don’t like the result just makes you seem demented.

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Farrar v Farrier

September 22nd, 2014 at 3:41 pm by David Farrar

ByCquzxCEAEbMsv

Poor David Farrier from TV3 has been getting abused on Twitter by angry lefties. To help reduce the confusion we posed for this explanatory photo.

It would be preferable if angry lefties didn’t abuse anyone at all (or just self abused), but if they do have to abuse someone, at least get the right person.

I am @dpfdpf on Twitter and Farrier is @davidfarrier for future reference.

David Farrier writes at 3 News about the confusion:

On Twitter, things were more violent. Left-leaning members of society were less puzzled and more angry:

“Are you happy now you National twat”, and “F**k you and Whaleoil”.

On Sunday morning, no doubt after a rousing night out on the town, I got a message from Farrar:

“So sorry for all the abuse you got, meant for me. If you’re around this pm, I’ll shout you a drink.”

It seemed like a good idea, if only for the chance to figure out a way to spread the message that we are two very different people. The evening rolled around and I was given the address of the private residence where he was staying.

Now, this was all a sort of off-the-record affair, but what I will say is that I walked in to a beaming array of National Party faces: all radiant, all excited, and all victorious.

They were well-groomed and smelt delicious. I was an unkempt mess, dressed in jeans and a hoodie. I felt like I had taken a wrong turn somewhere. I believe I got a small pang of what Goldilocks perhaps felt as she walked over the threshold.

I was welcome with open arms. I wine was put in my hand and a wonderful spread awaited me at the table. It looked like a feast fit for a king. I was later informed it was leftovers.

For me – not particularly well-versed in the intricacies of politics – it was a fascinating insight.

We talked bloggers, TV coverage, left, right, Dotcom, Colin Craig. We all seemed to be having fun. I felt like I had teleported into someone else’s body, sitting at that table. I imagine that to them, I was like an amusing jester who’d arrived for some light relief.

Towards the end of our evening, I got out some post-it notes and a vivid, and then we took a photo in the kitchen.

As you can tell, we are definitely different people. But like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Danny DeVito in Twins, we had a nice time together. Our movie probably wouldn’t do as well at the box office though.

Hopefully there will be less confusion in future!

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The results by bloc

September 22nd, 2014 at 3:27 pm by David Farrar

Vote by Bloc

Thought it would be also interesting to look at the votes by blocs. In terms of change, both the centre-right and centre blocs gained support and the centre-left fell by almost 4%.

But what is interesting is that the CR total is 53% and CL total is just 36%.

Unless the centre left want a future Government to be dependent on the whims of Winston Peters or the Maori Party, they need to lift their vote from 36% to 48% or so. That’s a huge shift,

This is the challenge for Labour’s next leader. Sure one could lift Labour from 24% to 29% and be in with a chance of Government if Winston plays along. But Labour really needs someone who can lift them to 36% or so, allowing Labour and Greens to be in a dominant position to from a Government.  But lifting your vote by 12% is not an easy thing. That means convincing around 300,000 extra New Zealanders to vote for you.

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Kiwiblog in Iran

September 22nd, 2014 at 1:00 pm by David Farrar

IMG_1007

This is what you get if you try accessing Kiwiblog in Iran! I guess I’m blocked :-)

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He would not have got out under three strikes

September 22nd, 2014 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

Stuff reports:

A gang member with an extensive history of violence has avoided a sentence of preventive detention for the second time.

Robert Winterburn, 47, has spent most of his adult life in jail, with convictions for manslaughter and attempted murder.

When he appeared before Justice Potter in 1997, she warned him that if he ever appeared in court again there would be no option but a sentence of preventive detention.

But when the Waipukurau Mongrel Mob member appeared for sentencing on his latest raft of offences before Justice Joe Williams in the High Court at Napier yesterday, he was instead jailed for 11 years and four months, with a non-parole period of five years and four months.

The offences included rape and threatening to kill, after he drove his girlfriend to Pukehou cemetery, near Waipawa, last year, telling her she was “never going home again”. He forced her to undress because he thought she was wearing a police bug, and raped her.

If three strikes had been in place previously he would have got a life sentence with no parole for the manslaughter in 1997.  As well as the manslaughter he also stabbed another prisoner five times. I doubt he will ever not be a danger to the community and he should have got preventive detention. Three strikes means that on your third serious violent or sexual offence you get the maximum sentence without parole.

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2014 election results vs 2011

September 22nd, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

2014elect

This tables shows the votes and seats for each party in 2014 and 2011. The first thing that strikes me is how little things changed. The biggest increase was 2.3% (NZ First) and biggest drop 2.8% (Labour).

In terms of change in vote, the significant parties that did best in order were:

  1. NZ First
  2. Conservatives
  3. National
  4. Mana
  5. Maori
  6. ACT
  7. United Future
  8. Greens
  9. Labour

In terms of change in seats, the parliamentary parties that did best in order were:

  1. NZ First +3
  2. National +2
  3. ACT, United Future, nc
  4. Greens, Maori and Mana -1
  5. Labour -2

But even a small change can make a difference, and it has.

 

 

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Who made these predictions?

September 22nd, 2014 at 10:00 am by David Farrar

One highly paid political strategist and pundit made the following predictions for the election. They were:

  1. ACT will lose Epsom
  2. Maori Party will lose all their electorate seats
  3. Maori Party will not gain enough party votes for a List MP
  4. Dunne may hold on, but it will be close
  5. NZ First will get 6.8%
  6. Greens will get 13% to 15%
  7. Conservatives will not make 5%
  8. National will get 43% to 45%
  9. The Government will be Labour-NZ First supported by the Greens
  10. The polls showing National winning by a landslide are wrong

One out of ten!

If you wonder who made these predictions, the answer is on Whale Oil.

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$577 a vote!

September 22nd, 2014 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Chris Keall at NBR writes:

The big man has managed to win at least one Election 2014 race, spending a record amount of money for every vote gained by the party he founded.

In 2011, the stony-broke Mana received 24,168party votes, or 1.08% of the total.

Last night, the expanded Internet Mana got 26,539 (1.26%) and Hone Harawira lost his seat.

Not much of a return for the $3.5 million Kim Dotcoom “invested” (his word) in the Internet Party. 

There are still 293,130 special votes (12.2% of total votes) to be counted.

Let’s assume Internet Mana wins 1.26% of those. 

That would take its 2014 tally to 30,232 or 6064 more than 2014.

That means Dotcom paid $577 for each of those new votes.

This is an under estimate.

Dotcom has said he put another $1 million into the Internet Party before it was registered. So $4.5 million divided by 6064 extra votes is a staggering $742 per vote.

I think the result is a great testament to the common sense of New Zealanders that they can’t be swayed by money alone. Money can help, but if the core proposition is rejected by New Zealanders, no amount of money can get people to support it. Not even $742 per vote!

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General Debate 22 September 2014

September 22nd, 2014 at 8:00 am by Kokila Patel
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How the pollsters did

September 22nd, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

table-1

These tables are from Grumpollie. The Herald DigiPoll was closest for National, One News Colmar Brunton for Labour, Herald Digipoll for Greens and NZ First.

table-2

 

On the provisional results, the Herald DigiPoll was exceedingly accurate. A wee way back were One News Colmar Brunton, Roy Morgan and Fairfax Ipsos. 3 News Reid Research was noticeably further out.

However overall not too bad a result overall for the public pollsters. Grumpollie notes:

  1. Well done DigiPoll.
  2. Looking at these results, I see no evidence of the ‘National bias’ that some people talk about.
  3. If there is any poll bias, it appears to be toward the Green Party.
  4. The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring.

Hopefully we’ll hear less now of how the landline polls over estimate National!

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Election Race 20 September 2014 ~ John Stringer

September 21st, 2014 at 12:51 pm by Kokila Patel

20Sept2014

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Cunliffe calls for full leadership vote

September 21st, 2014 at 12:15 pm by David Farrar

I said yesterday to a few people that if David Cunliffe loses, and wants to stay leader, he needs to call the leadership vote himself, and he effectively has done so.

He knows caucus would no confidence him in the vote scheduled post-election. And having been no confidenced by caucus, he could never be credible as the leader, even if he won the members and union vote.

But by saying he wants a full vote himself, that is a signal he will not accept responsibility for their disaster, and will fight to keep the job. It is all on. David Shearer made it pretty clear he was not ruling out a challenge, and Robertson said he was considering it also.

But Labour’s challenge is not just the leadership. It is also about their strategy and direction. As Kelvin Davis said you can’t be relentlessly negative for three years, and then put on a positive face for two months and expect people to buy it. Also they need to learn that victory lies in the centre, not in competing on the hard left with the Greens.

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Danyl McL on the result

September 21st, 2014 at 12:02 pm by David Farrar

Danyl McL blogs on the election result. A few extracts:

  • The phone was not off the hook for Labour. Twelve months ago, just after Cunliffe won the leadership of his party Labour were on 37% with the Greens on 12%. There’s a cliche that oppositions don’t win elections, government’s lose them, but Labour lost this election. Cunliffe is probably the worst campaigner in New Zealand political history.
  • I think that the best way forward for Labour is for Cunliffe and ‘the old guard’ – Goff, Mallard and King – to resign. They’ve been at war for six years now and they’re tearing their party apart. I doubt this will happen though. The civil war will drag on for another parliamentary term. That party is dying.
  • The Greens will be despondent. I’m despondent for them. But – I can finally say this now – their billboards were really fucking weird. Their problem of having their final vote underperform relative to their polling is growing more acute, and their great challenge for 2017 is to determine why this happens and focus their party on addressing that problem.
  • If New Zealand First goes into coalition with National then that’s a win for Labour who can concentrate on winning back those left-leaning socially conservative older voters. (Er, Grant Robertson might not be the best choice for this job). If they don’t then that is an (additional) nightmare scenario for Labour.
  • The Internet Party will go down as one of the most disastrous failures in modern political history. Their final party list result is only slightly higher than Mana’s was in 2011. $4.5 million dollars and it only bought them a couple of thousand votes. They didn’t even cannibalise support from other left-wing parties.
  • What they did do is scare the crap out of middle-New Zealand and frighten them into voting National so that the party filled with screaming, chanting, scary lunatics backed by a malevolent German criminal didn’t get a say in running the country
  • I’m sad to see Harawira leave Parliament. I think he’s an important voice. But I’m thrilled that I won’t ever again have to listen to Laila Harre on Morning Report braying about how much integrity she has and how wonderful everything she does is.

Danyl notes:

I’m disappointed by the scale of National’s victory and the poor result for the Greens, but I also think we dodged a bullet last night. I think that Cunliffe would have been a very poor Prime Minister, that his party is unfit to govern, and that any Labour/Greens/NZFirst/Internet/Mana coalition would have been an anarchic, unmanageable disaster for the country.

On that we agree.

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A message from Joe McCrohon

September 21st, 2014 at 11:01 am by David Farrar

abuse

Sent by Joe McCrohon to me by Facebook message.

I don’t want people sending any messages in return to Joseph McCrohon. Don’t do what he did, and send abusive messages. I’m just publicising his message to me, so when people search on his name, Google will reveal what he regards as acceptable dialogue.

The amount of abuse I have had this campaign has been unbelievable. They range from death threats to rape threats to just the mindless abuse. People need to understand there are consequences for their behaviour, and there will be.

I will engage respectfully with people who attack my arguments or disagree with my ideas, or even criticise my actions. But the level of thuggish mindless abuse that has occurred is appalling.

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2014 election winners and losers

September 21st, 2014 at 10:47 am by David Farrar

Big Winners

  • John Key – highest vote for National since 1954 and the first ever majority under MMP
  • Kelvin Davis – the most popular person in New Zealand today, for ridding New Zealand politics of Kim Dotcom

Small Winners

  • Winston Peters. Got a very good 9% and 11 MPs. Already trying to claim title of Leader of the Opposition. Would be a big winner if he had got to hold the balance of power
  • Sue Bradford – the only high profile Mana member with integrity, who quit rather than accept Dotcom’s millions
  • David Shearer – may become leader again, and all the talk is how he left Labour 10% higher in the polls than they got on Saturday
  • Peter Dunne – kept his seat, will be a Minister again
  • David Seymour – not only retained Epsom for ACT, but got a very respectable majority. May become ACT Leader
  • Trevor Mallard – despite David Cunliffe’s best efforts, still an MP
  • Nicky Wagner, Nikki Kaye and Sam Lotu-Iiga who retained marginal seats
  • Stuart Nash, the only Labour candidate to win a seat off National
  • Ruth Dyson, Phil Twyford, Iain Lees-Galloway for retaining their seats against strong National candidates
  • Peeni Henare and Adrian Rurawhe for returning two more Maori seats to Labour
  • James Shaw – the only new MP for the Greens, but a potential future co-leader who can expand their appeal to moderates
  • The public pollsters – the average of the public polls was pretty close to the results for National and Labour
  • Steven Joyce, Jo de Joux, Greg Hamilton and Cam Cotter – the nucleus of National’s campaign team, who kept the focus and discipline, despite all the distractions

Winners and Losers

  • Colin Craig. He didn’t make 5% but got a very respectable result, and well placed for 2017. He is in this for the long game.
  • Te Ururoa Flavell. He kept his seat easily, will be a Minister again, and got a List MP in. However the Maori Party may never be able to win back the other six Maori seats and have an uncertain future

Small Losers

  • Russel Norman and Metiria Turei. Despite the good polls, they got fewer votes than 2011, and have a sixth term in opposition
  • Nicky Hager – wrote a book designed to get National thrown out of Government, and instead helped National get a third term as the media furore over his book pissed off ordinary New Zealanders who got sick of it, and crowded out Labour and the Greens. Only a small loser though, as he probably has made a six figure sum from the book!
  • iPredict – were highly accurate in 2011, but were well off the mark this time. Did pretty well on electorate races, but had National too low by 4%, Greens too high by 5% and NZ First too low by 2%

Big Losers

  • Kim Dotcom – he threw $4.5 million into his per parties, and destroyed the Mana Party, stillborn the Internet Party and personally helped boost John Key into a majority in Parliament. He has gone from being a figure two years ago who many NZers had sympathy for, to a reviled figure for many many NZers.
  • David Cunliffe – the worst result for Labour for generations, 3% lower than their disaster of 2011. Gave a Kevin Rudd like pseudo-victory speech on the night which was tone deaf.
  • Hone Harawira and Laila Harre. While their politics were never mine, I (and others) respected them as principled advocates for their beliefs. On a personal level I previously quite liked them. But their decision to take millions of dollars from a former donor to right wing politicians, who was a convicted criminal, under extradition proceedings, and with well publicised allegations of not paying staff and creditors while living a life of luxury – well their reputations are massively tarnished, and may never recover.
  • Jamie Whyte – failed to get into Parliament, and ACT’s future is uncertain, as is his leadership
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General Debate 21 September 2014

September 21st, 2014 at 8:00 am by Kokila Patel
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The 2014 MPs

September 21st, 2014 at 7:42 am by David Farrar

On the provisional results these are the 121 MPs of the 51st New Zealand Parliament

National – 61 seats, 41 electorates, 20 list

  1. Auckland Central – Nikki Kaye
  2. Bay of Plenty – Todd Muller
  3. Botany – Jami-Lee Ross
  4. Christchurch Central – Nicky Wagner
  5. Clutha-Southland – Todd Barclay
  6. Coromandel – Scott Simpson
  7. East Coast – Anne Tolley
  8. East Coast Bays – Murray McCully
  9. Hamilton East – David Bennett
  10. Hamilton West – Tim Macindoe
  11. Helensville – John Key
  12. Hunua – Andrey Bayly
  13. Ilam – Gerry Brownlee
  14. Invercargill – Sarah Dowie
  15. Kaikoura – Stuart Smith
  16. Maungakiekie – Pesata Sam Lotu-Iiga
  17. Nelson – Nick Smith
  18. New Plymouth – Jonathan Young
  19. Northcote – Jonathan Coleman
  20. Northland – Mike Sabin
  21. North Shore – Maggie Barry
  22. Otaki – Nathan Guy
  23. Pakuranga – Maurice Williamson
  24. Papakua – Judith Collins
  25. Rangitata – Jo Goodhew
  26. Rangitikei – Ian McKelvie
  27. Rodney – Mark Mitchell
  28. Rotorua – Todd McClay
  29. Selwyn – Amy Adams
  30. Tamaki – Simon O’Connor
  31. Taranaki-King Country – Barbara Kuriger
  32. Taupo – Louise Upston
  33. Tauranga – Simon Bridges
  34. Tukituki – Craig Foss
  35. Upper Harbour – Paula Bennett
  36. Waikato – Lindsay Tisch
  37. Waimakariri – Matthew Doocey
  38. Wairarapa – Alastair Scott
  39. Waitaki – Jacqui Dean
  40. Whangarei – Shane Reti
  41. Whanganui – Chester Borrows
  42. List 1 – Bill English
  43. List 2 – David Carter
  44. List 3 – Steven Joyce
  45. List 4 – Hekia Parata
  46. List 5 – Chris Finlayson
  47. List 6 – Tim Groser
  48. List 7 – Michael Woodhouse
  49. List 8 – Paul Goldsmith
  50. List 9 – Melissa Lee
  51. List 10 – Kanwal Bakshi
  52. List 11 – Jian Yang
  53. List 12 – Alfred Ngaro
  54. List 13 – Brett Hudson
  55. List 14 – Paul Foster-Bell
  56. List 15 – Jo Hayes
  57. List 16 – Parmjeet Parmar
  58. List 17 – Chris Bishop
  59. List18 – Nuk Korako
  60. List 19 – Jono Naylor
  61. List 20 – Maureen Pugh

Labour – 32 seats, 27 electorates, 5 list

  1. Christchurch East – Poto Williams
  2. Dunedin North – David Clark
  3. Dunedin South – Clare Curran
  4. Hauraki-Waikato – Nanaia Mahuta
  5. Hutt South – Trevor Mallard
  6. Ikaroa-Rawhiti – Meka Whaitiri
  7. Kelston – Carmel Sepuloni
  8. Mana – Kris Faafoi
  9. Mangere – Su’a William Sio
  10. Manukau East – Jenny Salesa
  11. Manurewa – Louisa Wall
  12. Mt Albert – David Shearer
  13. Mt Roskill – Phil Goff
  14. Napier – Stuart Nash
  15. New Lynn – David Cunliffe
  16. Palmerston North – Iain Lees-Galloway
  17. Port Hills – Ruth Dyson
  18. Rimutaka – Chris Hipkins
  19. Rongotai – Annette King
  20. Tamaki Makaurau – Peeni Henare
  21. Te Atatu – Phil Twyford
  22. Te Tai Hauauru – Adrian Rurawhe
  23. Te Tai Tonga – Rino Tirikatene
  24. Te Tai Tokerau – Kelvin Davis
  25. West Coast-Tasman – Damien O’Connor
  26. Wellington Central – Grant Robertson
  27. Wigram – Megan Woods
  28. List 1 – David Parker
  29. List 2 – Jacinda Ardern
  30. List 3 – Clayton Cosgrove
  31. List 4 – Sue Moroney
  32. List 5 – Andrew Little

Greens – 13 seats, 13 list

  1. List 1 – Metiria Turei
  2. List 2 – Russel Norman
  3. List 3 – Kevin Hague
  4. List 4 – Eugenie Sage
  5. List 5 – Gareth Hughes
  6. List 6 – Catherine Delahunty
  7. List 7 – Kennedy Graham
  8. List 8 – Julie Anne Genter
  9. List 9 – Mojo Mathers
  10. List 10 – Jan Logie
  11. List 11 – David Clendon
  12. List 12 – James Shaw
  13. List 13 – Denise Roche

NZ First – 11 seats, 11 list

  1. List 1 – Winston Peters
  2. List 2 – Tracey Martin
  3. List 3 – Richard Prosser
  4. List 4 – Fletcher Tabuteau
  5. List 5 – Barbara Stewart
  6. List 6 – Clayton Mitchell
  7. List 7 – Denis O’Rourke
  8. List 8 – Pita Paraone
  9. List 9 – Ron Mark
  10. List 10 – Darroch Ball
  11. List 11 – Mahesh Bindra

Maori Party – 2 seats, 1 electorate, 1 list

  1. Waiariki – Te Ururoa Flavell
  2. List 1 – Marama Fox

ACT – 1 seat, 1 electorate

  1. Epsom – David Seymour

United Future – 1 seat, 1 electorate

  1. Ohariu – Peter Dunne

 

MPs who failed to be re-elected were:

  • Brendan Horan (NZIC)
  • Steffan Browning (Greens)
  • Asenati Lole-Taylor (NZ First)
  • Hone Harawira (Mana)
  • Maryan Street (Labour)
  • Moana Mackey (Labour)
  • Raymond Huo (Labour)
  • Carol Beaumont (Labour)
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The 2014 election records

September 21st, 2014 at 7:30 am by David Farrar

Over 2.1 million New Zealanders voted yesterday, and the two weeks prior, and NZ continues its incredibly rare record of being an unbroken democracy. We had 15 parties contest the election, and while we get divided by out personal choices and preferences, we stand united with accepting the will of our collective decision.

It was a hard night for people who supported parties of the left. I know what it is like to be passionate about your politics and belief, and to not get the result you want. Elections are not just about MPs and candidates, but the tens of thousands of volunteers and activists who give up their time and money to get involved in an election – with no regard for self-interest, but a strong regard for the country’s future. With a few exceptions, we’re all better off for their efforts – regardless of which party they supported.

I would also pay tribute to the many candidates. Most candidates are motivated by a strong desire to serve New Zealand. Candidates for Labour, National, Greens, NZ First, Maori Party, ACT, Conservatives and United Future are generally decent people who do want to contribute to a better New Zealand. Many of them take weeks or months off work, and spend thousands of their own dollars on their campaigns.

It was beyond doubt a very good night for supporters of the National Government. Again, my sympathies go out to the many good people who did want a change. The one thing inevitable in politics is change, and it is a matter of when, not if. But 2014 was a resounding result for National and John Key

This election saw a number of election records. They are:

  • National first government to increase its vote and seats in three consecutive elections since the Liberal Party did the same in 1902, 1905 and 1908
  • Worst result for Labour since 1922 when they got 23.7%
  • Best result for National since 1951 when they got 54.0%
  • Highest result for any party under MMP (in fact since 1972)
  • First ever absolute majority under MMP (may change on specials)
  • Best result ever for a third term Government
  • The three highest party votes under MMP were National in 2014, 2011 and 2008, then Labour in 2002 (41.3%)

The focus will now go on the impact of special votes. The 120th list quotient is held by Labour, 121st National and 122nd NZ First. There could be a one seat change on the specials, but not two seats. Hard to see National falling below 60 seats.

The other focus will be government arrangements. There will beyond doubt be confidence and supply agreements with ACT, United Future and the Maori parties. Does David Seymour become a minister or is ACT better to try and build its brand (if it can) without being a member of the Executive. No doubt Peter Dunne will remain a Minister, and that Te Ururoa Flavell will become one. I doubt their second MP will though.

Then there is the possibility of co-operation agreements with NZ First and/or the Greens, where National and those parties may agree on some areas they can work together – even if no agreement on confidence and supply.

If the ministry stays at 28 and assuming Dunne and Flavell are Ministers, then there is room for 25 or 26 National Ministers. There are currently 23 so I would expect at least two or three new Ministers – maybe even slightly more.

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