One Network News Poll
May 23rd, 2004 at 6:24 pm by David FarrarAnother bad poll for Labour. In fact what has been interesting is how consistent the around 10% gap has been for what is four months now with the Colmar Brunton One News poll.
National 47% (-1)
Labour 37% (+0)
NZ First 5% (+0)
Green 4% (-1)
ACT 3% (+1)
United Future 1% (-1)
Progressives – ha ha ha ha ha
If this reflected an actual election the seat allocation would be:
National 63
Labour 49
NZ First 7
United Future 1
Progressive 1
So a National Government with 63 out of 121 seats
If the Greens and ACT both won an electorate seat and stayed in Parliament, then the results would be:
National 58
Labour 46
NZ First 6
Green 5
ACT 4
United Future 1
Progressive 1
National/ACT could form a Government with 62 out of 121 seats.
In further bad news for Labour, a Marae/Digipoll poll shows Labour having dropped 13% amongst Maori and Clark down 14%.
No tag for this post.
May 23rd, 2004 at 8:56 pm
I think the poll was wrong. We can’t be ahead! I am a useless leader!
Vote:May 23rd, 2004 at 9:32 pm
I’ve advised Victoria University that you are forging your e-mail address. If you want to try satire, try and be funny but more importantly use a made up e-mail address, not a real one.
Vote:May 24th, 2004 at 4:40 pm
How did you get 121 seats? Are the PCs the overhang or are the UFOs?
I think you’re being a bit one eyed with this commentary, David. Given what the Government has been through in the last month, it would have seemed most likely that it was down, not steady in the poll.
Interesting times, as ever.
Jordan
Vote:May 24th, 2004 at 5:59 pm
Yep Progressives are the overhang. They poll so low generally the media do not report their score, but when I see a score it is around 0.1%, well below the 0.7% or so they would need to get a non overhang seat.
Vote:May 25th, 2004 at 6:03 am
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/news_national_story_skin/427205%3fformat=html
link to NZ state television supporting John Kerry ads
Vote:May 25th, 2004 at 2:42 pm
David, what would the seat numbers be if you factored in ‘The Maori Party’ with say 5% party vote and say 3 of the Maori seats?
Regards Silas
Vote:May 25th, 2004 at 4:11 pm
One can’t wasily answer that Silas, as it depends where those votes come from. If all from Labour, then Labour would lose six seats and the Maori Party gain six seats.
Where it might get interesting is if the Maori Party gets say 3% but wins six seats. Two of those seats would be overhang seats, taking Parliament up to 123 seats.
Vote:May 25th, 2004 at 4:57 pm
That last comment sounds like yet another reason to follow the original Royal Commission’s recommendations and ditch the Maori seats altogether now that we have MMP. If Maori can argue for separate representation on the basis that their normally lower socio-demographic profile means that they are unfairly discriminated against through traditional democratic mechanisms (like elections, say) then you would think they could see the other side of that particular coin and argue that over-representation is just as wrong as under-representation, surely? [He cynically enquires...]
Vote:May 25th, 2004 at 9:25 pm
It is worth noting when debating the Maori seats that there are 40% more Maori in Parliament than there are Maori as a percetange of the adult population. Not only is there not under representation, but there is quite significant over representation.
Vote: