Labour behind by 25%
I generally don’t comment on every single poll on the blog, preferring to do monthly commentary in my newsletter, but tonight’s One News Colmar Brunton can’t be ignored. The last time any party made 56% or higher in a Colmar Brunton poll was in September 1990 when National got 59%. Labour last got 56% or higher in this poll in July 1987.
On the ON/CB results, the seats in the House would be:
National 70 (+22)
Labour 38 (-12)
Maori 4 (nc)
ACT 1 (-1)
NZ First 0 (-7)
United Future 1 (-2)
Greens 7 (+1)
Progressive 1 (nc)
Total 122
Based on the above, Labour will be losing a dozen incumbent MPs, but not to bring in new blood – just through lost seats. They would need to lose around 20 MPs to actually bring in significant new blood.
National would have the problem of having every single list candidate making it into Parliament. That would send a collective shudder through Caucus.
Now I should state the obvious. There is no way there will be an election result like this. ON/CB polls tend to be more positive than others, and a lead of this magnitude can’t be maintained. But when the lead ranges from 12% to 25%, that’s all very grim for the Government.
Clark’s preferred PM rating of 27% is a long way down from her high of 52% in June 2002. It is the lowest she has been in that poll, since she became PM. The last time a PM trailed by 11% or more was Jim Bolger in October 1997.
The budget hasn’t provided any immediate assistance to the Government. In fact the vindictive cancelling of the 2005 announced tax cuts may have contributed to the decline.
May 27th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
National may just have to prepare a 100 member list then
May 27th, 2007 at 11:07 pm
I agree National’s vote is exaggerated. All the same the trend is important – TV3, Digipoll, and TVOne show massive shifts to National and John Key being preferred PM.
The next few months will be very interesting as Clark attempts to come back – her enemies in her own caucus may decide it’s time for a change if they believe Clark can’t lift them to victory.
May 27th, 2007 at 11:17 pm
Cooloo coolay, oh wonderous day….
But you’ll just get another mob of socialists….
In NZ the argument is merely about who should be subsidised.
You’ll understand the perspective if you ever become an expat…..with money.
May 27th, 2007 at 11:29 pm
Wahoo. Roll Helen. And replace her with who? At least National has some depth.
May 27th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
Fred. I agree. The subsidy-mould was cast generations ago, and we’ve long since passed the point of no return.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:17 am
“do you hear the people sing…..”
Served them right for stealing the ’05 election & using stolen emails. This govt. is legitimate & the polls are finally starting to reflect that.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:22 am
Dave’s excitment will wane when he figures out that in these times of mendicant upset with Labour they still get 49% guaranteed.
Lab + Green + Maori = 49%
So 1% + 1 vote needed by Hulun…..
Piece of piss.
National should go fishing….it’s more productive.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:24 am
Correction – that should read illegitimate govt.
The unpopular & incompetent Klark is a victim of John’s success.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:36 am
@Fred
Dude, read the story. It’s 49 seats not 49%. I’m not sure why the Left would be happy with 49 seats out of 120…
May 28th, 2007 at 12:39 am
@Fred
Dude, read the story. It’s 49 seats not 49%. I’m not sure why the Left would be happy with 49 seats out of 120…
May 28th, 2007 at 1:02 am
You’re right…too much Hunter Shiraz.
Alas, the immoveable mendicant base means you have Labour forever.
One hundred of the others are immigrating to Aust. per day.
You best not only find yourself a subsidy…..but also someone to pay it.
May 28th, 2007 at 1:04 am
Fred may not be able to add but he does have a good point. Labour has UF, Greens, Maori, and Progressive all as potential coalition partners. Based on this poll that’s 13 seats to choose from.
National have Act or UF who they could realistically form a coalition with – a total of two seats. This poll shows two things. First, how well John Key has worked for National. But just as importantly it shows how National is in desperate need of coalition partners. National could conceivably capture up to ten percent more of the vote than Labour and still find themselves on the opposition benches.
Is it really realistic for National to attempt to become the first MMP government to govern alone?
May 28th, 2007 at 1:23 am
May 28th, 2007 at 4:23 am
NX, yes that is the thing… the Nats have to put that into check. Plenty of time to celebrate when they win the election.
Now is the time to talk to other parties and build huge momentum and enduring attacks fro all sides to Helen.
Labour are toast, but after all the lies and deceipt she has sprinkled about over the years she had it coming and it is reaping in big time!
May 28th, 2007 at 6:56 am
nickgavey & Fred might care to consider this: I know plenty of Green and Maori Party supporters who didn’t sign up to become tame Labour Party lapdogs. If anything, I think those parties are feeling… well, rather taken for granted, and a damn sight more pragmatic about the realities of getting results under MMP than some of the Labout spin-bots and folks stuck in a FPP-mindset around here (and in the MSM).
May 28th, 2007 at 7:06 am
I think it is only going to get worse for Labour. They vigorously defended Field and the Ingram report. They turn out to have been defending a possible perversion of the course of justice. They have been so sanctimonious and bullying on this issue they cannot now admit to being wrong without casting further serious doubt on their fitness for office.
Meanwhile, Damian O’Connor must be dead scared that a whisteblower will turn up at the trial. It would be interesting to find out what O’Connor knew, what documents he initialled, and what documents have since disappeared.
May 28th, 2007 at 7:12 am
Deja vu anyone?
May 28th, 2007 at 7:18 am
dream on..!..nx and heine..
and..as nickgavey notes..you have no coalition partners..
that is the harsh reality/obstacle you seem quite happy to ignore..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
May 28th, 2007 at 7:22 am
I think we are all excited by this poll, very very excited in fact.
But I think everyone is getting carried away with this result and National needs to keep focussed on bring the government to task and continue to focus on the old, tired Labour front bench.
Labour will fight back hard!
May 28th, 2007 at 7:28 am
Talking about the delusional and extremely weak willed Damian O’Connor, his West Coast constituents are so disappointed in his performance his electorate can longer be called a liarbore safe seat. His recent change in personal circumstances dents his suitability as a representative of the area and I would find it hilariously ironic if the reds lost the support of a region that heralded the birth of the working man’s party ? Coasters will never forget the words of the consummate liar Hulun Klark calling them feral inbreeds. The communist tree huggers stopped Timberlands but they will not stop Solid Energy. Did anyone see Klark on TV lying to South Auckland school children by stating “ that no one could imagine a woMEN prime minister in NZ” ( did she forget Jenny). Really Hulun lying to school children , does this mad maggot Klark know how to tell the truth ?
May 28th, 2007 at 7:35 am
Have you become an expat with money, Fred? I thought you were just another Kiwi whinger living in Aus – something those of us who’ve actually been expats with money hold in contempt. Check out Cactus Kate’s site to have the difference made plain.
May 28th, 2007 at 7:36 am
His electorate can NO longer be called a safe liarbore seat . I wish I had a proof reader .
May 28th, 2007 at 7:43 am
d4j said..
” ..Did anyone see Klark on TV lying to South Auckland school children by stating “ that no one could imagine a woMEN prime minister in NZ” ( did she forget Jenny). Really Hulun lying to school children , does this mad maggot Klark know how to tell the truth ?..”
no d4j..you are ‘the mad maggot who dosen’t know how to tell the truth’
as you well know..she was talking to the children about her expectations as to her future..when she was a child..
reflecting on the mores of those times..
you know that d4j..you watched it..
or is your parallel universe so completely delusional..
that you really believe what you just wrote..?
they are your two alternatives..d4j..
‘mad maggot’..or delusional..
tell us how that ain’t so..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
(and..um..!..jenny wasn’t elected..eh..?..
her elevation was down to ‘dirty deeds done real cheap’..
and part of that (tawdry) rightwing revolution..you lot undertook..)
we all know that..
May 28th, 2007 at 7:47 am
Why should not National go for the stars and destroy the Labour Party politically perhaps for ever. That is my goal. They can become a small trade union party with perhaps 15-20% of the vote. That is all they deserve.
May 28th, 2007 at 7:54 am
One of the reasons for Labour’s (terminal) decline is their supreme arrogance witness the quite extraordinary images on Fridays TV1 News covering the reopening of the Labour Party office in Mangere.
To see primary? school pupils in uniform hearded along by their teacher to the event in order to provide a countdown to ‘her’ cutting the tape is child exploitation at its worst.
Just wonder if the School involved had bothered to seek approval from parents?
Cynical and sad and they’re paying the price.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:01 am
Ross – no doubt the teachers will be able to explain it away as being something from the core curriculum – trade union studies perhaps – or the countdown being a practical lesson in mathematics. Or maybe the countdown was Dear Leader counting down the depleting number of votes that she can count on in the House!
May 28th, 2007 at 8:09 am
gee !..ross/inventory..maybe meeting the countries prime minister..?
reason enough..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
May 28th, 2007 at 8:15 am
Phul – From my perspective of the TV News piece was that vulnerable school children listening to Hulun preach her insidious indoctrination could have very easily interpret her woffle being that she was the first female PM of NZ. She has already shown the world that she is above the law of the land, but telling lies to kids goes far beyond a sick joke. I hope things keep swinging National’s way and the liarbore freakshow is reduced to a token 20% of the vote come election time. By the way Phul, what political party do you now support – after the greens gave you the ole heave ho don’t come Monday?
May 28th, 2007 at 8:23 am
This poll is good news for National. Individual polls don’t count too much but trends do. I am now confident National will pick up more votes than Labour but under MMP that is no guarantee of governing.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:24 am
oh..!..i’m with you now ..!..d4j..
you’re one of nationals’ ‘finest’..aren’t you d4j..?
why don’t you call nats hq..?..tell them who you are..show them your ‘resume’..?..(maybe some excerpts from your droolings here..?)
i’m sure they’d welcome someone like you with open arms..eh..?
and..no..d4j..my ‘issues’ with some (incompetent) dickwads in the green party in no way shake/undermine why i became a green in the first place..
i didn’t join the party to be loved..eh..?
there are slightly larger issues at stake here than individuals’ egos/insecurities..eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
May 28th, 2007 at 8:29 am
phil u … if you think that herding vulnerable children along to what was clearly a partisan political event then fine.
Ordinary decent Kiwis may think otherwise.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:35 am
This poll is good news for National. Individual polls don’t count too much but trends do. I am now confident National will pick up more votes than Labour but under MMP that is no guarantee of governing.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:45 am
Time for MMP to relegated to electing playcentre committees and weekend bake off groups. It breeds instability in NZ.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:49 am
Oh National are leading in the polls.
Must be time to rummage through John Keys rubbish.
If that doesn’t work, time to shriek hysterically about the wicked USA being Nationals puppet master.
Finally, if all else fails, steal National party policies and do them yourself.. like Tax Cuts.. although I imagine that would go down like a shit sandwich for Cullen.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:54 am
Clearly Phul has more serious mental health issues that I cannot comprehend. His written diarrhoea has deteriorated to the point that indicates that he badly needs some intensive psychiatric therapy with electrodes .
May 28th, 2007 at 8:58 am
It would be fascinating to know if phil whore talks the same way as he writes.
PHILU (verb): To write incomprehensible rubbish using as many non-alphabetic keys as possible.
PHILU (noun): An unemployable troll who haunts DPF’s weblog.
May 28th, 2007 at 9:07 am
The next budget will be the “lolly scrable budget”
and the next election the
“take it up the arse” one….
if JK can work with Peter Sharples, and I think it can happen, we have a workable gummint.
May 28th, 2007 at 9:09 am
philu:
And you not only have a psychic telling you the result of the next election – you know the poll that really counts – but Pita, Tariana, Jeanette and Russell have appointed you to negotiate their response?
As Key himself has been saying (quite sensibly), there’s no room for complacency and a wee way to go until the next general election.
As for Danyl’s attack of deja vu, I seem to remember when there were equally large margins on the otherside and certain Labour hacks confidently predicting a Labour landslide in 2005. (One of them still owes me a long, expensive lunch after getting that call wrong.)
May 28th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Denial: See Labour party supporter.
See also: Sycophantic
May 28th, 2007 at 9:38 am
DPF, being an expert on polling, are we seeing a kind of sheep voter swing thing going on here, since a few weeks back national took a slim lead over labour, theres now a swing amongst a sheep group towards national as the higher polling party?
May 28th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Maybe Key will come up with some real policy now. I suggest the promise of another referendum on MMP would be a good place to start.
May 28th, 2007 at 9:47 am
The last time a PM trailed by 11% or more was Jim Bolger in October 1997.
Yes… the second to last Prime Minister. Stood down as PM in the last term before Labour won the election in 1999. Oh and of course also a PM in his third term! Any other amazing things you wish to draw our attention to?
May 28th, 2007 at 9:49 am
Sheep – polls can operate as a self fulfilling prophecy. For example if a party is polling very badly for a prolonged period, then voters think wow they must be doing badly, so I don’t want to support them.
Danyl – That was an 11% lead, not a 25% lead. But also as most media are saying, National’s lead doesn’t seem to be based on one event such as Orewa, but a combination of factors.
On the plus side, the next few polls can only get better for Labour.
May 28th, 2007 at 9:51 am
The general voting public are the most stupid people in NZ.
May 28th, 2007 at 9:58 am
DPF, being an expert on polling, are we seeing a kind of sheep voter swing thing going on here, since a few weeks back national took a slim lead over labour, theres now a swing amongst a sheep group towards national as the higher polling party?
May 28th, 2007 at 9:59 am
Yes, well done, Stan.
When all else fails, blame the voters for being too stupid. Classic example of Labour Party arrogance after being in power for far too long.
The trouble is you can’t reliably claim a public mandate for what you’re doing in a democracy if you’re prepared to run down the people who got you there in the first place.
May 28th, 2007 at 10:08 am
I’ve always blamed the majority of the NZ public for being too stupid to see that the ACT party is the only sensible economic party in Parliament, dumb prick.
May 28th, 2007 at 10:09 am
National’s increase in polling popularity doesn’t actually matter a jot.
Logically, any government is absolutely bound to be in danger of falling out of favour after three terms… and to have had one leader for so long makes the process all the more understandable.
The big tragedy is that labour’s likely replacement will be just another green/socialist/pc coalition which is in all important facets exactly the same as the green/socialist/pc crowd that has been driving this poor country down through the OECD rankings for 20 years.
Under National, we will still be asking the taniwha for permission to build roads, still invading the faily’s rights to live by their own moral codes, still using stupid non-sequiteurs like ‘sustainability’, still pretending to keep busy by shuffling notional ‘carbon credits’ across delusional chess boards and still avoiding real issues that impact on real people.
Labour lite. It will ultimately be the death by strangulation of this once-inspirational country.
May 28th, 2007 at 10:25 am
Funny, we see a left-friendly National leader and we suddenly see a huge turn around in the polls. I predicted this earlier this year:
Key has far broader appeal than Brash would ever have had and I predict the Nats will romp home in the next election. And I mean ROMP.
No surprises here.
May 28th, 2007 at 11:04 am
“Is it really realistic for National to attempt to become the first MMP government to govern alone?”
It could happen, but it doesn’t need to. If National get the biggest support by a large margin then every party apart from Labour will at least talk about some kind of coalition agreement. UF and ACT are in the bag. The Maori certainly will talk, the Greens probably will. They will all want to be able to exert pressure.
Interesting times! Still a way to go to the election, but it seems that withholding any detail on policy is really working for the Nats right now, so I can’t see them changing that particular course.
May 28th, 2007 at 11:07 am
“Labour lite. It will ultimately be the death by strangulation of this once-inspirational country.’
I agree. The Socialists, National or Labour, will destroy this country (even more than they already have) and nothing looks like its going to stop them. Aren’t we better off then in the long run, to just get on with it. Sooner we bottom out, sooner we can start the rebuild…
May 28th, 2007 at 11:09 am
“Maybe Key will come up with some real policy now. I suggest the promise of another referendum on MMP would be a good place to start.”
Why would they want to? Perhaps an exposition of their policies would hurt them. Better to play the “look how fresh and cool our new guy is” card for a while, I would imagine. National lite.
May 28th, 2007 at 11:28 am
If the press do their job National will have to start annoucing policy in election year at least.
Regardless of how you feel about Labour
as a democracy we should be afforded the liberty of inspecting the policy content of a possible new regime. That’s what freedom is right. That’s the basic ideals of our system.
National have to be better than Labour not just option B.
National are doing well, however they’ve been consolidating the centre right vote for sometime now. The most interesting poll will be the next TNS poll to see if they confirm the trend.
Of course lets also not forget what happened last election when South Auckland decided to embrace democracy. Are the pollers getting to them? Do they answer the phone?
May 28th, 2007 at 11:33 am
Phil u sets low intellectual standards for posts and then consistently fails to achieve them.
May 28th, 2007 at 11:48 am
stan said..
“..I’ve always blamed the majority of the NZ public for being too stupid to see that the ACT party is the only sensible economic party in Parliament, dumb prick…”
(heh-heh..!..well..at 1.5%..
and what with ‘dancing-fool’ rodney about to become a ‘real’ epsomite..and to start wearing twin-sets and pearls..
i wouldn’t hold my breath if i was you darling..
eh..?.)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
May 28th, 2007 at 11:49 am
In fact, it is not only Labour lite that will ultimately be the death by strangulation of this once-inspirational country, but the pernicious MMP system as well.
I forgot to mention that, to my eternal shame, I voted for MMP. It seemed such a bright democratic light shining at the time, and little was I to know that it would end up being a flea infested mangy tail wagging the dog; sometimes wagging so hard that the poor creature’s head threatens to come off.
The process of government has become hide bound, stagnant and corrupt under this terrible blight. In the present environment, where everybody’s pathetic interest group has been given wheels and a barrow to push, will any party have the courage to attempt to modify or dismantle MMP? Any bets out there?
May 28th, 2007 at 11:49 am
J above goes for the Labour defence of low poll results: “Of course lets also not forget what happened last election when South Auckland decided to embrace democracy. Are the pollers getting to them? Do they answer the phone?”
That’s what Labour thinks of its own supporters – too stupid to answer the phone or talk to a pollster.
Of course the pollsters reach South Auckland – that’s why they tend to quite closely reflect election results (even though not perfectly).
J’s comments are at least snobbish and perhaps racist.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
“J’s comments are at least snobbish and perhaps racist”
Oh please. Now that’s the correct definition of P.C
“Of course the pollsters reach South Auckland.”
No, historically pollsters have a problem getting to people who don’t work the traditional 9-5 workday. I know this may come as shock to you anon that not everyone lives like you…and the turn out vote in South Auckland was a major turning point as the results came in last election.
and it was fantastic to see our poorest suburbs sending a clear message to our richest suburbs and I think that trend will continue, be encouraged. Is it being monitored? Pollsters …..1000 people on a Friday night so as to make the headlines.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:16 pm
J, I don’t think you know how polls are taken now. They are not single-day “snapshots” but taken over several days at all parts of the day to deal with exactly the kinds of issues you raise. They also ask sufficient identifying questions about a range of unrelated matters so they can match these back to known factors in the population, and they can drop some proportion of particular classes of people called. It is a bit more sophisticated than old-fashioned polling by major parties which just call a thousand random numbers on a particular night. Be assured, South Auckland is certainly included, especially in the better polls like TNS (which maybe why it shows less of a swing to National).
May 28th, 2007 at 12:17 pm
“will any party have the courage to attempt to modify or dismantle MMP? Any bets out there?”
Any of the only 2 that could benefit, you mean? I think both Labour and National never wanted MMP. But only if they get an outright majority or agreement from across the floor will the subject ever come to some kind of bill in parliament.
Then we’ll return to rule by 35%. Hooray.
So my bet is no. And I confess to having voted against MMP, but it’s since convinced me of it’s merits. I may be left of centre, but I can see clearly that Labour’s mandate is very weak at the moment. I think it’s a strength of MMP that their power is correspondingly weak.
It’s a system that is conservative by it’s very nature, much more so than FPP, which can swing between radical positions.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
It seems there are a lot of people who want tax cuts and like to smach their kids.
Kiwiblog is featured on Blog Zealand please feel free to stop by and say hi.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
David’s riposte to Danyl’s wishful snark sums it up. It is very rare to have such a huge margin in favour of one party or to have such a seismic polling shift across all major polls. The shift is all the more dramatic when one factors in the natural advantages an incumbent government has – control over the legislative agenda, the Budget (obviously a PR flop), the army of paid spin doctors in each Ministers office and the fact that centre-left governments the world over get more of a pass from the MSM whose reporters and editors are philosophically aligned with centre-left policy proscriptions.
The old axiom applies – governments lose elections but good oppositions can widen the gap and exacerbate the loss. Labour is now waning under the combined weight of no tax cuts, Clark’s dissembling over the speeding/art and Doone affairs, the pledge card rort and the lengthy denial in admitting liability, the emasculated Ingram inquiry and subsequent charging of Field (with the promise of a messy and public trial), denying a conscience vote on the anti-smacking bill and perhaps a sense of a bridge too far over social engineering. Key’s move away from Brash’s more extreme rhetoric, his State House to corporate success story, his youthful exurberance in taking on and bettering Clark’s arrogant disdain in the House and a sense of fresh legs in the face of 3rd term blues all add up to this poll result.
Having been inside Labour myself when similar catastrophic poll numbers were registered prior to their 1990 route, I can understand the shock and denial of the regular Labour (or centre-left coalition) backers on this blog. The gap wont be 25 points but to hope United Future (what’s left of it) and NZ 1st (who are unlikely to survive in 08) will want to prop up the dying corpse of Labour is the forlone hope of many of the Labour supporters on this blog. Labour can really only count on the Greens as they are the only true hard left party in Parliament despite murmurings from their leadership.
A few more months of results like this and look for Goff or Maharey to make a move but aside from Cosgrove and a few others, what fresh faces could say a new Maharey Government bring to Cabinet to reverse the poll results.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Yeah because the trend tells a completely different story doesn’t it Danyl.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:46 pm
J, ” Be assured, South Auckland is certainly included, especially in the better polls like TNS (which maybe why it shows less of a swing to National). ”
..so there are better polls , interesting theory…which logically means there are average poll(ers).My point.
Actually I agree, thats why I said two posts ago, “The most interesting poll will be the next TNS poll to see if they confirm the trend.”
The polling companies are strange beasts. The deviancy in their polls in the last couple of years suggests your faith in their thoroughness is misplaced.
May 28th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
“Having been inside Labour myself when similar catastrophic poll numbers were registered prior to their 1990 route, I can understand the shock and denial of the regular Labour (or centre-left coalition) backers on this blog”.
So we can blame you for 1990. Explains a lot. That’ll be the labour government which gave the economic engine room to the shadow act party (and suffered) .It’s a different world for labour now, vastly different issues, no crazy freemarketers bailing at the first sign of caucus debate.
May 28th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Congratulations Dave Mann. It would seem that yoou are one of the few honest people willing to admit that they voted for MMP.
At least you are one of the very very few that can be identified as one of those who visited this dishonest, innefficient and unrepresentative system upon us.
IMHO there would be a lot of public support for its dismantling, at the very least there would be huge support for a referendum on its future as most of us were lead to believe would be the case after 2 terms. That there wasn’t is only a tribute to the deviousness and dishonesty of the architect of it and the fine printt definition of what a review means.
There is no political downside in offering a referendum, Labour have ruled it out so a clear point of difference is possible. The possibility would have the PC brigade and the likes of philu, phillipjohn, sonic and Ben Wilson writhing around in delicious agony as their abject minorities have been weilding far more influence for their whacky ideas deserve. Rod Donald has a lot to answer for.
May 28th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
Congratulations Dave Mann. It would seem that yoou are one of the few honest people willing to admit that they voted for MMP.
At least you are one of the very very few that can be identified as one of those who visited this dishonest, innefficient and unrepresentative system upon us.
IMHO there would be a lot of public support for its dismantling, at the very least there would be huge support for a referendum on its future as most of us were lead to believe would be the case after 2 terms. That there wasn’t is only a tribute to the deviousness and dishonesty of the architect of it and the fine printt definition of what a review means.
There is no political downside in offering a referendum, Labour have ruled it out so a clear point of difference is possible. The possibility would have the PC brigade and the likes of philu, phillipjohn, sonic and Ben Wilson writhing around in delicious agony as their abject minorities have been weilding far more influence for their whacky ideas deserve. Rod Donald has a lot to answer for.
May 28th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Labour & Labourites are so critical of the policies of Rodgernomics & Ruth Richardson – yet how many of their policies have Klark’n Cullen rolled back? Yeah, thought so.
In fact Labour has reep the rewards from those painful for changes & has done nothing with them to advance NZ. In fact we’ve fallen in the OECD ranking. How scandalise is that!
Excellent summary kiwi in America. All the Labourites who bang on about collision partners – tell me what collision partners has Labour sown up for ’08. Yeah, thought so.
Fact is Dr Brash almost formed a collision with UF, Maori, & ACT in ‘05. They’d drafted a letter to Winston asking him to join. Of course he didn’t & the rest is history.
May 28th, 2007 at 1:13 pm
Sorry about the double post, the comments box didn’t empty the first time.
May 28th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
No DavidW – it was an excellent post worth reading twice
May 28th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Interesting thread. I have been reading but had nothing specific to add as all the usual suspects are here and in fine form
but here’s one that caught my eye…
“It seems there are a lot of people who want tax cuts and like to smach their kids.
Kiwiblog is featured on Blog Zealand please feel free to stop by and say hi.”
No I won’t, until you at least learn to spell. Also, any chance that as you troll by, you could actually post something relevant to the discussion? I will help you out, this thread is about the latest POLLS, NOT TAX OR SECTION 59. Why is it that morons who like to come in here and abuse regular posters, are such uneducated morons?
May 28th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
DavidW, FOR God’s sake don’t openly say that a clear point of difference is possible for National by offering a referendum on MMP!
The very suggestion that there is potentially a point of difference to be exploited here would surely be enough for John Boy to immediately close down all discussion on the subject and join with Labour in refusing to countenance the idea.
May 28th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
Check out the stuff poll. 1000 votes for Labour & over 3000 votes for the Nats. Go you good thing….
May 28th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
NX: can we expect frantic vote-rigging from the Labour-friendly Beehive minions as has happened previously?
May 28th, 2007 at 2:00 pm
59% in 1990 for National.
That was when they promised to end the super surtax. Did they?
And what was their poll rating in 1993 (if Anderton and Labour had not split National would have been out after one term).
Labour’s 57% in 1987 and they were out in 1990.
High ratings are indicative of support levels which cannot be sustained. No one can please everyone all of the time.
Will “workers and women” really be better off with the party of farming men, big city bosses and selfish capital.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:11 pm
Who’s to say they already aren’t. The tide of public opinion is drowning out the desperate Labour minions who should be doing something more productive with their time.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
“In fact Labour has reep the rewards from those painful changes”
Yeh and Australia has suffered for taking no pain in that same period. Come on ,Ruthy gave us nothing but a low wage economy. She paniced.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Pity this didn’t come before the budget.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
DavidW:
I didn’t support MMP, but you know something… we were on the losing side of that one. I find it simply bizarre that ostensible conservatives are so hot for treating the electoral system as an electoral plaything because they didn’t get their own way.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
“Will “workers and women” really be better off with the party of farming men, big city bosses and selfish capital.”
Better of than they are NOW? Just what has labour done recently for “workers & women”? Tell me how we could all possibly be worse off…..
You clearly haven’t being following the issue. Nat’s support is a lot wider than you seem to think. They are going far enough to the centre-left to make a conservative twitch.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:48 pm
On high poll ratings and MMP
Anyone note the connection – Labour’s 57% support in 1987 and National’s 59% support in 1990, then in 1993 people want MMP.
Both Labour and National had recently been very popular and then soon lost that support.
The people felt conned and one way to deprive governments of the power that can be derived from successfully conning the public is MMP.
It’s not fool proof of course – a party can still get 50%+ support – but with the range of other options available under MMP this will be rare indeed.
There will however be signs of phantom majority support between elections, as voters signal support for a party leading a government coalition or for a party leading a potentiasl incoming government coalition – but when it comes to an election they will determine which particular party they want in the government coalition.
This is where ACT, United, NZ First and any pretender will gain in support off National (and of course Labour itself will still work to swing support back as well – given they did this twice in the 2002-2005 period before winning in 2005).
May 28th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
Craig M
If workers and women think National will act for them when in power, they clearly have not followed the history of National in government.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
It takes a brave leftie to compare NZ to Australia given the current situation.
May 28th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
SPC- history is a funny thing isn’t it. I agree with you, sorta.
I would also argue that many “workers & women” voted labour last election on the same basis and where has it got them? Labour has deserted their electorate and will rely on ignorance, indifference and a bloody big lolly scramble to win it back.
I still maintain that “workers & women” have nothing to fear from the Nats, that they aren’t already afraid of under labour.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
“It takes a brave leftie to compare NZ to Australia given the current situation”
Nx, the comparison is that Australia never had a “year of ruth”.Got it. Never bled their labour market like us. Didn’t collapse their salary ladder. got it.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
“I still maintain that “workers & women” have nothing to fear from the Nats, that they aren’t already afraid of under labour.”
Well why don’t they announce some policy then because until then we can only guess what they intend to do, which is bullshit.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
“Well why don’t they announce some policy then because until then we can only guess what they intend to do, which is bullshit”
Be patient,we still have 18 months to go.. The reason they won’t, is the reason for this thread. Read the headline J, 25%!!! Why risk that. The time will come when they have to, but any tactician will tell you that when you are winning by this much and the opposition is in full retreat, don’t give them a chance at a come-back.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Craig Ranapia,
You are right from a purely political perspective. I see it through the eyes of an economist as a consistently suboptimal form of Government and this a system that needs improving. Sure my personal political bias colours my views (whose doesn’t after all?) but I will go to my grave declaring that there must be a better way.
I believe that a benign dictatorship is probably the most efficient form of Government (can’t remember who originally said that but I have to declare it wasn’t me) so each of us then can find a place on the continuum between that and pure communism where they are comfortable. And before the usual suspects jump in without thinking that through, the efficiency continuum passes through despots and elected multi-party democracies along the way.
Most of us (I suspect) would opt for some innefficiencies traded off for wider representation and the ability to make directional change through regular electoral cycles. The differences are just how much and I happen to opine that we have swung too far.
God and its only Monday, too early in the week for such deep thinking. Back to work.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:54 pm
Very interesting result as nothing has really changed except peoples perception that Clark/Cullen & Co are incompetent, corrupt or both, its certainly not due to MSM reporting in depth so perhaps Blogs are proving more effective than given credit for.
May 28th, 2007 at 3:56 pm
Are you talking about the Klark Labour govt.? Because compared to Howard’s Australia that’s pretty much the case now.
May 28th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Why would the Nats want to turn the focus on what they are going to do?
As Napoleon said
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. ”
Thanks Wikiquotes!
May 28th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
J and SPC
You’re trying to replicate King Canute. You can twitter on about the old internal ideological fights in Labour all you like. Clark purged Labour (or they left of their own accord) all those not in step with her liberal feminist agenda and they got the government they wanted and look at what NZ thinks of them now. You can say well look at Howard across the Tasman as a distraction and maybe cling onto hope that the socialists over there might finally win an election after 4 times and 11 years in opposition.
The point I am making is that huge poll shifts like this have happened less than half a dozen times in recent political history (and each time the trend was noticeable across all polls) and they foreshadowed landslide results at the next election even if the landslide was not of the same magnitude as the poll result. MMP does have a levelling effect that means the massive swings of seat numbers under FPP are a thing of the past. But with Labour’s poll numbers nudging 30% and with coalition partners not wanting to be dragged down with the sinking ship, Labour’s only hope is some major circuit breaker.
J, who has become the new sonic, so tell us, if you were Heather Simpson or Pete Hodgson, what would you do that Clark and co have not already tried (election bribes, mocking Key, saying “the failed policies of the 90′s” etc etc) since the prospect of them losing power seems so galling to you?
You can flail around all you like and scaremonger but frankly the electorate are tired of it and all the recent abuses that I detailed in my post. You just can’t do all that stuff and not have people notice and say “we’ve had enough”.
May 28th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
“what would you do that Clark and co have not already tried ”
I know what labour want to do. I don’t know what National want to do.As an active concerned citizen of this country I’d like to know.
I’m sick of politics being played like sports but I’m more tired of pundits accepting that reality. I’d like real debate on policy and I’d like it soon and if National (or any other party) can show me a detailed vision that has more merit than the cullen stability model I’ll vote for it. ..but I don’t want a return to an individual “hardworking” economic aspiration model that Ruthy was so keen on because it doesn’t work it just creates social confusion.I want to work smartly not hard. I’ve broken my back once.
May 28th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
No you don’t – you just making up BS. When it comes to 2008 Labour want to keep their powder as dry as the rest of them.
Case in point is the’07 budget. Most lefties a more than a little dishearten by the way it favours the well off. Matt McCarten said as much.
May 28th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
J
Earnest and worthy thoughts. The political reality (sad as it is I must admit) is that most voters are not policy wonks like you. Sound bites matter and so does perception. Key is all over it right now and Clark, after mastering this art form, has lost her mojo. A million worthy things done by Labour is drowned out by the litany of shabby deeds.
National sleepwalked to victory in 1990. They could do it again the way Labour is going. Everyone plays the same game-waiting until closer to the election before releasing policy. Its not a state secret. But you will see some flesh on National’s bones and more substance to Key’s vague notions and yes – there will be a policy debate. But when you are 20 points behind your rival, who’s listening to you anymore. It’s hard for politically attuned people (like many who post on blogs) to realise how little most NZers listen. They pick up on glacial shifts however and even the most disengaged know when the tide is going out on a government.
May 28th, 2007 at 6:38 pm
Craig Ranapia.. I see your point – however, the whole MMP experiment was brought in with the express understanding that a referendum would be held (at some time in the future) on its retention. This hasn’t happened and I doubt that MMP would have been adopted without this suck-it-and-see factor.
MMP, of course, doesn’t stand a chance of being presented to the people by today’s politicos, simply because all kinds of dross and lazy no-hopers who otherwise wouldn’t be employed now see the opportunity of sucking indefinitely on the public tit.
Furthermore, “women” (whatever the fuck they are, if they are not simply human beings), “workers” (who were mostly unionised anyway) and all kinds of other interest groups were able to have a voice under FPP, by joining a political party and becoming involved. Each of the major parties had various ‘wings’ and pressure groups composed of sectarian interests across the spectrum. Today’s mess is not an improvement; it is simply a chaotic farce masquerading as democracy.
May 28th, 2007 at 7:04 pm
A million worthy things done by Labour is drowned out by the litany of shabby deeds.
Name one worthy thing. Just one.
Labour can really only count on the Greens as they are the only true hard left party in Parliament despite murmurings from their leadership.
Labour can’t really even count on the Greens — read the headlines.
What this – ironically – still shows is that Nat’s lack of understanding of MMP compared to Helen. Because in any other MMP country Brash would have been PM after the election or – at least – Key would have been PM by now. Dunne would have stayed in Revenue; Winston would still be Foreign Affairs, perhaps Ron Mark would be defense and Nandor or Jeannette would be minister in charge of climate change — along of course with Pita as Maori affairs in perpetuity and of course Rodney Hide as minster pleinpotentary in charge of the welfare state (removal of).
Helen Clark and Labour have lost the mandate to govern (if they ever had it in the first place). There is absolutely no reason why there should not be a change or government, or at least an election, tomorrow other than the lack of vision of the current leadereship of the National party.
May 28th, 2007 at 7:16 pm
Siner
I was tongue in cheek about the million worthy things. I did however support the Boy Racers legislation.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
J
“Earnest and worthy thoughts. The political reality (sad as it is I must admit) is that most voters are not policy wonks like you.”
Thanks for the compliment kia. However not being a servant of any political party I’d like to see politics change.
I’m tired off the sad dull political punditry of the mainstream media* and I’d like to think that I’m not the only one.Lets get to policy asap. Amaze me John Key.
*Latest “radio out the window” example: The pathetic Paul Henry’s statement that he didn’t trust “Gordon Brown” because , “I don’t know why, something about the way he looks.”
Policy wonk = “show me the vision”. Let me consider it. Real politics. Would you buy a house without any or severely limited information after owning a leaky building?
May 28th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Campbell Live tonight was an interview with John Key, for the full programme. For once, we could get beyond soundbites and slogans and hear him answer specific questions about what he would actually do in government. Or … not do.
As I’m on the left, I certainly want National to lose. But it should now be clear, to anyone who is not blinded by their hatred of Helen, that your new dragon-slayer would be much, much closer to this government than to the ACT party, or even to Don Brash.
He has signed up to: Kiwibank, Kiwisaver, interest-free student loans, increasing the minimum wage, nuclear-free NZ, Maori seats, Working for Families, Kyoto and climate change, Bradford’s Section 59 … and so on.
But he might build some private prisons. I can live with that.
Not sure how long you righties can live with Key though.
May 28th, 2007 at 8:56 pm
DavidW wrote:
You are right from a purely political perspective. I see it through the eyes of an economist as a consistently suboptimal form of Government and this a system that needs improving.
Well, that’s all very good – and I do see things from a purely political perspective. Because that’s what our electoral system is – politics. I view my politics through a conservative filter, which holds that evolution is preferable to revolution, and change is most effective when it is incremental and very carefully considered.
The foundations of constitutional self-government cannot – and must not – be treated like some theoretical case study in a post-grad seminar.
Anyone who wants to throw out MMP because they don’t like the current legislature is as foolish as someone who thinks the proper remedy for bad cooking is to change your china pattern and start using chopsticks.
May 28th, 2007 at 9:27 pm
No Craig, you change the recipe book.
May 28th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Or sometimes you sack the cook if you have lost faith in his/her ability
May 28th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
After factoring in Colmar-Brunton’s inherent National bias (remember the polling company was hideously wrong in September 2005), I think the lead is somewhere in the region of 15-17 percent. Nasty for Labour, but not on the scale of 25 percent.
May 28th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Craig
Whilst Joe public may not rationalise his uncomfortable feeling of MMP to the extent of the effective appointment of people whom he cannot remove at the ballot box, a return to FPP may not produce a better result and that is what is required. A second chamber elected at the mid point of a parliament with power to block and initiate legislation may be worth a try. Far easier and cheaper would be binding referendums with the bar set at a feasable level say 100,000 signatures. Imagine how it would concentrate the mind if the s59 issue had looked like gathering the required signatures during its debate with the addition of recalling those who voted for it. The point is governments almost always get at odds with the electors over issues that were not visible at the point of voting or which were not policy and some means of effectively consulting the electors on such issues would benefit all. This in no way prevents a party from governing as a referendum call would mainly cause both sides of the argument to be debated and the government could either accpet an unfavourable result as democracy in action or they could resign and request re election with a mandate to repeal.
May 29th, 2007 at 8:37 am
Yes Simon g, my thoughts exactly (and rather more eloquently articulated). Thank you.
May 29th, 2007 at 9:18 am
Rumpole, your case for binding referenda seems to be a really good solution. I would think that a small country such as ours would be strangled by the red tape of an upper chamber, but binding referenda would certainly be a good way to curb the flagrant excesses of a government bent on ramming through legislation that it knows (or at least suspects) the electorate would reject if they got a chance.
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