It still looks highly likely John Howard will lose office later this month. The bookmakers are betting on a Labor victory, Labor have led in every poll for 14 months and Rudd is well ahead of Howard as Preferred PM. When the incumbent PM isn’t even Preferred PM, you know you have trouble.
The Australian has quite a good article on where things stand.
The best hope for the Coalition may be the FPP type system (actualy more an IR system) where it all comes down to marginal seats. This article does suggest they are doing better in the marginals. They key thing to remember for Australia is people do not vote uniformly. Results will be very different in the Queensland marginals compared to the NSW marginals. A simple pendulum is too simple.
Having said that, I still think Labor will have a handy majority – may be as large as the Coalition now has. But let’s see how the last three weeks go.