Australian election update

November 6th, 2007 at 12:11 pm by David Farrar

It still looks highly likely John Howard will lose office later this month.  The bookmakers are betting on a Labor victory, Labor have led in every poll for 14 months and Rudd is well ahead of Howard as Preferred PM.  When the incumbent PM isn’t even Preferred PM, you know you have trouble.

The Australian has quite a good article on where things stand.

The best hope for the Coalition may be the FPP type system (actualy more an IR system) where it all comes down to marginal seats.  This article does suggest they are doing better in the marginals. They key thing to remember for Australia is people do not vote uniformly. Results will be very different in the Queensland marginals compared to the NSW marginals.  A simple pendulum is too simple.

Having said that, I still think Labor will have a handy majority – may be as large as the Coalition now has.  But let’s see how the last three weeks go.

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17 Responses to “Australian election update”

  1. Calculus (76 comments) says:

    I think that Howard will get back in.

    His stewardship of Australia has seen unprecedented growth and a very astute grasp on the economy which would be plain foolish for the people to reject it.

    Rudd and Co don’t have the skill or the experience to take up the reins.

    The old adage should apply to Australia this time. “If it ain’t broke don’t fix it !!”

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  2. Kimble (4,443 comments) says:

    Howard should have stepped aside two years ago. Costello is the natural replacement and with two years momentum he would be a shoe in this time round.

    As it stands Rudd is a nothing candidate, he has zero substance. If he wins it will not be because of anything he did or any of Labours policies, it will be because Australia is ready for a change at the top and Labor isnt that much different from the Liberals anyway.

    Labor’s policies are all taken from the Coalition, when they win they will be a party without a direction. The problem is, as the Liberals “fear campaign of fact” has made clear, Labor is riddled with unionists. The deputy leader was a member of a Communist organisation in University and isnt distancing herself from it enough to sound genuine.

    Union leaders have been crowing for months about how they will be able to bully bosses once they are in charge. (Union leaders, not Labor candidates.) They obviously think Labor is in their back pocket.

    Labor is doing its very best to lose this election though. That idiot Peter Garrett shot himself and his party in their collective feet in just the last week. Rudd has had to publicly correct the policy statements by a couple of high profile candidates who were only guilty of repeating what he had said in the past.

    The rerelease of the video of Rudd eating his own earwax was handled just about as bady as you could imagine, “I was just scratching my face!”.

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  3. Lindsay Addie (1,325 comments) says:

    All I now about this election is what I’ve seen on Skynews. Howard seems a tad slower to the punch than previous campaigns whilst Rudd comes across ok but tends to sound to much like Sir Humphrey Appleby by waffling and spouting meaningless statements.

    I agree with DPF though it looks like Rudd will be PM by the end of the year.

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  4. Lindsay Addie (1,325 comments) says:

    damn typo should have said “All I know”…………

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  5. Kimble (4,443 comments) says:

    Costello would have killed Rudd in the debate, he demolished his counterpart Swann in theirs.

    Rudd is an annoying little twerp. He has a nasty habit of being asked a question in an interview, ignoring it, asking himself a question and then answering that.

    Interviewer : “Mr Rudd, how do you respond to suggestions that Labor has not properly considered the costs of signing the Kyoto agreement?”

    Rudd : “Are we serious about climate change? Yes, we are. That is why we will be spending $1.5billion on renewable energy study…”

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  6. davemc (102 comments) says:

    The best hope for the Coalition may be the FPP type system (actualy more an IR system) where it all comes down to marginal seats.

    David the Australian House system, while known as “preferential voting,” is actually STV in single-member constituencies. Ballot papers are marked in order of preference. Where no candidate gets more than 50pc, preferences are distributed until one gets 50 per cent plus one.

    The Senate uses STV in multi-member constituencies, which is what STV was designed for.

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  7. lloydois (268 comments) says:

    Clearly you weren’t watching the same debate the rest of us were watching Kimble. Most commentators called the debate a draw, the worm favoured Swann, economic commentators mostly favoured Costello but the reality was Swann only had to perform credibly and that he did.

    Another reality you don’t seem to understand is Costello is not at all popular with the electorate, all the polling shows this. He may be a formidable parliamentary performer and much loved by the commentariat but the truth is his antics and especially his bovver boy sneer is a major turn off for the punters.

    You seriously underestimate Rudd. To say Costello would have wiped the floor with him in a head to head debate is rubbish.

    There’s a reason why Labor is ahead in the polls. It’s not as if they haven’t had time to take a measure of Rudd. They have and they remain impressed. They’ve watched the coalition throw everything they can at him these last few months, he’s withstood it and has run a canny campaign.

    3 weeks to go, I’d be very surprised to see Labor beaten.

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  8. Kimble (4,443 comments) says:

    “Most commentators called the debate a draw,” Yeah, most commentators will always call for Labor so a draw translates into a Costello victory.

    The worm is a joke. Anyone that seriously considers the worm proof of ANYTHING is too stupid to bother listening to.

    Costello would have had Rudd for breakfast, did you hear the lollipop questions Howard gave him?

    Australia is not impressed with Rudd. Rudd is a dull, boring, twerp who eats his own ear wax. He has one thing going for him. He isnt Howard. And that, he does well. Somehow, despite copying Liberal policy for the last year, Rudd is still not Howard.

    For christs sake! Even Latham “captured the imagination of the Australian voter!” because he wasnt Howard! Apparantly they werent turned off by his bullying behaviour. What an absolute disaster it would have been for Australia if that crack-pot was elected PM!

    Rudd is likely to win, but dont think that means he is anything special. Face facts, he is about as exciting as ear wax.

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  9. lloydois (268 comments) says:

    You do a good Piers Akerman impersonation Kimble. Most unbecoming.

    If you think most commentators will always call for Labor then you know zilch about Oz Politics.

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  10. Kimble (4,443 comments) says:

    BAHAHAHAHAAA!

    You are kidding right?

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  11. lloydois (268 comments) says:

    Not at all Kimble. Take the Murdoch press which accounts for 70% of the MSM in Oz. It’s a cesspit of right wing hacks closely aligned with Howard. Even the Fairfax press has its share of right wing hacks – Devine, Sheehan, Gerard Henderson. I could go on but this myth that the MSM here is left wing and pro Labor is just that. A myth. Even the ABC is striving so hard to be neutral it’s completely neutered.

    The current chairman of Fairfax used to be the treasurer of the federal Liberal party. The current head of the ABC, Mark Scott used to be a NSW Liberal Party staffer.

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  12. pdm (842 comments) says:

    If there is one thing I cannot understand is why any Australian would want a change in Government. During the period 25 July to 6 September I was on the Sunshine and Gold Coasts, Melbourne 3 days only and Perth and things seeming to booming.

    Sme people complained about rising interest rates and I pointed out that they would rise higher faster under a Labour led Government.

    John Howard may not be a great people person but he seems to have a knack with the economy which I did not see any evidence of from Rudd.

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  13. FM (11 comments) says:

    One thing to remember is that Howard probably only needs about 48.5 % of the two-party preferred vote to win. (Lots of wasted votes in safe labour seats amongst other things). Today’s Newspoll had him at 47%. It’s a stretch with two weeks to go, but not yet impossible.

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  14. thehawkreturns (162 comments) says:

    An old friend of mine is standing for Liarbore in Mackay, Queensland. He is hard left ex British trade union etc etc. He is an excellent local councillor but you really don’t want this sort of rampant leftie in charge of a country that is currently doing so well.

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  15. Mike Collins (170 comments) says:

    I was in Australia recently and took the opportunity to watch the debate between Howard and Rudd. Unfortunately it was the nine feed with the worm.

    What I find hilarious is that the people they had selected to maneouver the worm were anything but undecided. Whenever Howard went to speak (yes before he had uttered a word) the worm was immediately “in the red”. Very rarely when he was speaking did it register net positive. However for Rudd the opposite was true. He didn’t need to speak and the worm was completely net positive.

    Now I think Rudd actually won the debate – he did look more assured, despite Howard pipping him on a couple of points imo. That however is something people should come to from their own observations. Having something such as the worm is allowing undue influence of a media toy (Peter Dunne anyone?). Especially if “undecided voters” are anything but.

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  16. Maulman (1 comment) says:

    IMHO there is about a 4% error in Australian pre-election polls in favour of the Labor party. We saw this at the last election when Mark Latham went in leading the polls and Howard ended up winning with an increased majority.

    Why is this? I think Liberal voters don’t do polls. Come home from a hard days work, receive a call from a pollster . Labor supporters (usually full of spite) can’t wait to get on the blower and give the government both barrels.

    Bottom line – take into account the error and the swing needed. Labor need to be 8% ahead in the polls to win office.

    You read it here first.

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  17. emmess (1,418 comments) says:

    Undecided voters in Australia are more likely to be undecided between one or more left wing parties (Labor,Greens and Democrats) than between the Coalition and Labor. Thats why the worm is a joke.

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