[DPF: Around 18 months ago I gave up blogging on every poll - I ignore most, regardless of whether they are good or bad results. The reason is that everyone (including the media) over analyse each poll to try and make it sound significant. I do cover the odd poll when it is a massive surprise or has some interesting questions. Mostly I leave the analysis to the monthly newsletter from Curia.]
I have been helping a friend with a new website and it seems like every man and his dog is selling them. However I came across a design that I have never seen before, it opens like a book. And not badly priced either, doesn’t look like it would suit everyone though. and no, I’m not peddling it for him, I’ve never met him nor have anything to do with it. http://www.jack.co.nz
can you please fully delete my comment in the “Heh” thread.
When you just leave it as “Message deleted” and then leave the message you did it looks like I wrote something really bad. Which I didnt really.
Justin du Fresne on Newstalk ZB in Welly is all over the EFB today – he has just given a 90-second summation of what constitutes electoral advertising, and let’s just say, it wasn’t an opinion that favoured the government! He is giving today’s march the kind of publicity that could not be purchased after 1/1/2008! 1035AM or listen on http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz – if you want to call him and keep the debate going, 04-472-1035.
Bevan said “Hi IV2, not surprised DPF hasnt mentioned it considering he only does averages. But I am snickering that the left whiners have stopped mentioning Labours poll recovery…..”
Yep, the silence is deafening – especially after this post from Tane last evening:
November 20th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
PS – IV2, we’ll be posting on Roy Morgan in the next 24 hours. We sort of have lives and jobs to hold down. Right now, I’m off to get drunk with Robinsod. Wish me luck.”
OK – I cut the guy some slack – it is only 13 hours so far and he DID go to the pub to drown his sorrows. I mean, heck, I would too, if my beloved party was 14 POINTS BEHIND in the polls in a poll taken BEFORE the worst news (EFB, Setchell, control freak poll) broke!
So…John Key’s dead animal hat. Fashion Faux Pas or Climate appropriate?
A little from column A, and a lot from column B? Never a good look when it looks like you shoved a stick of dynamite up a possum’s arse, then put the remains on your head… but the real question is: Does his bum look big in all that extreme cold weather gear?
But I am snickering that the left whiners have stopped mentioning Labours poll recovery…..
Well, if I took polls at all seriously I’d be getting my schadenfreude on, right about now. Still, I’m looking forward to Jordan’s Pollyanna-on-crack spin, which is always amusing. But I guess that’s what happens when you’re on a steady diet of poll-driven fruitcake.
tane goes out drinking with 15 year old boys? Ewwwwwwww.
Who’s 15? Please Bevan, keep your fantasies to yourself.
And for those complaining that the standard hasn’t put up the Roy Morgan poll yet, we have – http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=740. We cover all polls, regardless of whether they’re friendly to the left. We just try and fit in some time for our jobs and our lives too.
For those who can’t countenance the thought of following a link to The Standard, here are Tane’s thoughts:
“I can’t say I agree with his analysis, as I haven’t seen anything to suggest the reworking of the Terrorism Suppression Act (which both major parties voted for) has caused anyone to doubt Helen Clark’s ‘ability to protect New Zealanders from the scourge of terrorism’. This sounds like an analysis written by an Australian with little understanding of domestic issues in New Zealand (they still insist on referring to National as ‘the Nationals’).
To my mind the fact that this result is so far out of whack with other recent polls suggests it’s a rogue, but we’ll have to wait for the next few polls to see if this is the case. Either way, it will certainly give Labour pause for thought and will give NZ First a welcome glimmer of hope.”
However, knowing that Tane is always interested in fairness and balance, here is a contrary opinion:
“This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 808 electors between October 29 — November 11, 2007. ”
Now those dates take on added significance. The polling period ended on Sunday November 11th. And as we all know, the New Zealand Herald climbed into the government on Monday 12 November – a development that is not captured in this poll! Labour’s “outing” by the Herald for their attack on democracy, John Boscawen’s march in Auckland, and the reporting back of the EFB and second reading debate will all feature in the next Roy Morgan poll. Oh yes, so will the release of the SSC report into the Madeleine Setchell affair, the revelation of cronyism in the Environment Ministry, and the survey that shows that 57% of Kiwis think that the government has too much control over their lives!! No Minister’s by-line, “Roy Morgan Kneecaps Clark” pretty much says it all! To paraphrase the old song – “How low can they go?””
The source for that opinion is, of course, impeccable!!!
Well said inventory. There’s one other punishing statistic that’s only been publicised in the last day or so- record numbers of Kiwis fleeing to Australia. That’s actually the best way to force commies to face up to reality- leave them to sink in their own shit…
Wednesday seems like a good day to me. Also known as ‘Hump Day’ because you’re over the hump and coming down the other side. Admittedly when my girlfriend first told me this I refused to accept her interpretation, and Wednesday became a very good day indeed.
But seriously; yesterday’s Waikato Times reported that a substantial percentage of people are against the Horiculture “Why-Cut-Oar” pronunciation of our region. I think that was significant, and gave me great hope as I have been despairing of another three years of the barren harridans.
The most significant aspect of the Roy Morgan poll was a media comment that the reduction in Labours share was attributed to the recent police faux pas with Tuehoe. This indicates that those polled perceive the Police as politicised whihc is a very bad look for Police & polly’s and as IV2 points out the conyism issues aren’t reflected in that poll, the next poll could be very interesting – anyone taking bets on if Labour will duck under 30%?
IMHO they will drop and stay in the low 30s The Greens and NZ1 will be the beneficaries Most of the Socialist defect to the Nats has already happened I would think. Unless the nats really drop the ball they should stay in the mid 40s and the Maori Party will hold the balance of power not just in 08 but in future elections unless the maori seats are abolished.
Better get used to a Maori Party run government folks because thats whats it gonna be
Ben I reckon a Nat/Maori government could be a big and pleasant surprise for a lot of the citizens.
It appears that JK and some of the other senior Nats have good solid relationships with TT and PS and others.
They might between them break the mould and produce a very constructive and productive relationship that results in real progress for the Maoris and PIs in the social and business developemnt areas and a spin off for all especially we freedom fighters.