Iowa Entrance Polls
CNN has some interesting data in the entrance polls they did in Iowa. First the Republicans:
- Huckabee had 40% support from women and only 29% from men. Thompson took some of his male support.
- McCain got 17% amongst those who thought events in Pakistan were very important and 3% amongst those who said not too important.
- 60% of Iowa Republicans are born-agains or evangelicals and they were 46% Huckabee to 19% Romney. Amongst those who are not, it is 33% Romney, 14% Huckabee
- 13% of those voting were Independents and 29% of them voted Ron Paul
- 67% said religious beliefs matter a great deal or somewhat
Now the Democrats:
- Obama beats Clinton amongst female voters 35% to 30%
- Clinton gets 33% to 31% for Obama for those who says events in Pakistan very important
- Amongst registered Democrats it is Obama 32% to Clinton 31%. But for Independents (who were 20% of the caucus attendees) it is 41% Obama to 17% Clinton
- Clinton narrowly leads 29% to 28% amongst married attendees but for singles it is Obama 43% to 24% for Clinton.
- Obama does better amongst very liberal and somewhat liberal attendees than moderates.
- Edwards was highest amongst people who had attended a caucus before (30%) but for first timers Obama got 41%.
- 52% say the top quality is ability to bring about change, and of those 51% voted Obama.
- Obama got 57% of under 30s (who made up 22% of the attendees) to 11% for Clinton. Of those over 65 (also 22%) it is 45% Clinton and 18% Obama.
This is all invaluable data for the campaign strategists. Looking at this Clinton is in real trouble. Also Huckabee’s victory is less impressive when you see where his support comes from.
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January 5th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Yes David, Huckabee will turn out to be the modern day version of the WW2 ‘ninety day wonder.’
January 5th, 2008 at 10:00 am
The GOP is facing electoral disaster in congress
The Senate has something like 23 republican senators facing re election( if they all decided to rerun) as 12 on the Democratic side.
And in the House the Democrats have a normal distribution curve for their seats in their winning margin, ie a few with both small and large winning margins with most filling out the centre.
The republicans have almost none with small winning margins some with very strong margins and a large number vulnerable to a small swing
January 5th, 2008 at 10:02 am
These were the “entrance poll ” results for the Democrats
Obama 35
Clinton 27
Edwards 23
The final results:
Obama 38
Edwards 30
Clinton 29
As you can see Edwards gained to most from the others who didnt make the 15% cut
January 5th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Yes I agree GOP will probably do badly in most races. The presidency is most likely to be their best hope, but only if they select Giuliani or McCain who have significant support from independents and moderates. But then their own base may not be motivated to turn out, unless the Democratic candidate inspires them to do so just to stop them.
January 5th, 2008 at 10:59 am
DPF’s comment raises the question- so, given “moderate” is a euphemism for the left/ liberal dominant status quo what’s the point?
The Repubs may as well fold their tents and concede the political battle to the Democrats.
This is what comes of a party not standing for anything, or rather, from incrementally straying too far politically from their ideological base. Compromising, appeasing, and cowering, when they should have been confronting, clearly articulating their arguments and fighting for what they stand for.
Once a party has given up so much ground, the task of winning it back becomes so much harder.
The Republicans are lost. All the current primary candidates, if they win the presidency, will only bring further big spending big government Bush style disappointment
The only reason we have such poor government and such poor candidates is that people inexplicably keep voting for the same old same old- empty promises, political double speak, and PC propaganda.
Relief from the politically stifling fad of totalitarian socialism will only come through candidates like Ron Paul or Duncan Hunter, but not until there is some kind of cataclysmic political event that shocks the populace enough to make them awaken to the fact that they are in fact victims of their own gold brick buying apathy and inaction.
January 5th, 2008 at 11:17 am
somewhat of a bad sign for Hilary – but Iowa is a special case – in other states there wont be so much money there to get first time voters to the polls to vote for Obama.
January 5th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Evangelicals and born-agains can’t start Mormons. They hate them. It’s quite funny really, seeing as they claim to love everyone.
January 5th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Nov 08 is a long time to run in politics.
Note that 40% of the new jobs since 2001 in the US were building industry related.
Note the sub prime crisis has not yet begun to fight…. the PPT is throwing some hundreds of billions of liquidity at it….. wait until the other foot drops.
Good news is oil is due a big correction….the demand/supply is much the same as $80/b, that means lots of spec activity. Bad news is the market has factored the Fed always lowering interest rates at the first sign of trouble
Prediction, by Oct the US election will be being fought on the economy…period.
January 5th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Centrebet have eased Hilary’s odds from $1.75 hot favourite to $2.35.
She still retains favouritism.
January 5th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Interesting point: Huckabee is not a member of the “religious right” – he may be standing for a right party, and a former minister, but he comes from the left faction of the baptists, so is on the wrong side of most religious right policies.
Points above taken re: republicians – they’re hopeless on some levels.
All the worse considering the top 3 candidates on the other side have an average of one senate term each – Edwards has one, Obama has yet to complete one and I think Hillary is starting her second?
January 5th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Tina – “Prediction, by Oct the US election will be being fought on the economy…period.”
ditto for NZ.
January 7th, 2008 at 11:48 am
Have a look at this blog by Toby Harnden he has been The Daily Telegraph’s US Editor since 2006. He lives in Washington DC
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/foreign/tobyharnden/
January 7th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Obama could truly win the presidency.
If Muhhamad ali appeared at one of his rallies, Obama would win hands down , no questions.
As a man endorsing himself, he could have no finer attribute than sealing an impaasioned patriotic speech than having a tear rolling down his cheek.
when you consider that has never been done and you collate that with a grateful black man acknowledging his huge white support, the door to the Oval office will magically open for the first black president in US history.
OprahObamamania will get him to November. She’s never been caught out in a lie or scandal in all her years in television.
if it was possible, I would hold my breath till November.
After that, win or not, he will have changed the whole of race perceptions in this nation.