Espiner on Key
Has been a somewhat messy couple of days for John Key as he took a day to clarify National’s position on Auckland Airport and also gave a wrong impression on National’s treaty policy.
I’d guess that with such a huge lead in the polls, there has been a semi-natural inclination to try and avoid saying anything which might upset the pundits. I don’t mean this to suggest that National will not have any policy which differs from Labour – I am sure it will. But that when Labour manufacture an issue, such as Auckland Airport, an inclination not to be forced into declaring whether or not one will reverse it is understandable. But a failure to clearly state what one will do in response can be worse than taking a position, even an unpopular one.
I’m pleased to see today that this has not happened with Labour’s attempts to buy Toll. Instead of fudging on their position, I am very glad to see NZPA report the following from National:
A National government would consider selling off a renationalised railway company, the party’s finance spokesman Bill English said today.
Finance Minister Michael Cullen confirmed today the Government had made an offer for Toll’s rail and ferry business, but the Crown and company remained poles apart about a fair price.
Mr English said the last thing New Zealand wanted was the Government to own the rail company.
“We certainly wouldn’t be buying Toll. The worst thing for our railway network would be for the Government to take it over using the OnTrack company, (the State-owned enterprise which runs the rail tracks) which is chaired by the Labour Party president Mike Williams,” Mr English said.
“We would be back to strikes in school holidays on the ferries and featherbedding in the system. We need to look after the taxpayers’ interests and the network and the best way to do that is to have a competent operator.”
Governments had a bad record on operating rail companies and he did not think Labour would be any better.
If the purchase was completed then a National government would get out of the business as quickly as possible.
Excellent. A nice strong attack on the Government, a reminder of the bad old days, and a very clear response.
Now going back to Espiner, he writes:
The wonder, then, is that he did not say this loudly and clearly on Tuesday. There were certainly grounds for attacking Labour. The Government has intervened late in the piece, effectively shifting the goalposts. It has all but admitted it has done so for populist reasons. Allowing foreign investment in our companies has never bothered it in the past – indeed, Labour used to welcome it.
Labour remains responsible for selling some of New Zealand’s most strategic assets of all, such as Telecom, the railways, and more recently, the national electricity grid.
Nevertheless, Labour has snookered National over this one and both parties know it. I’d hate to think that Labour announced the new provisions purely to trap Key, because that would not only be the height of cynicism but terrible government. I’m sure it didn’t. But it would surely have crossed Labour’s mind.
I suspect they did actually. Not solely, but their decision was a terrible unprincipled act. That is why it should have been attacked strongly.
I understand Labour has a series of other traps for Key this year, and it’ll be interesting to see whether National’s leader is a little more careful where he stands.
As I said above, the response to a possible buy back of Toll looks much much better.
Will it make any difference to the polls? The short answer is I don’t believe it will. Not in the short term anyway. The average punter doesn’t watch Parliament with a clipboard keeping score of the exchanges (at least I hope they don’t or they’re as sad as the press gallery).
Heh so true 
But it might hurt National during an election campaign.
That is the concern. There’s only a few months to tighten things up.
March 6th, 2008 at 11:36 pm
Unlike you post late at night DPF. I suspect the prolific commenters use their employer’s time or are not employed as such – so are more frequent in the daylight hours.
Anyway, I was waiting for a post like this yesterday after Key had ended up looking a bit like a salesman who didn’t know his product being asked a tricky question.
He has to learn to do what those other pollies do and ask questions back in the first instance, like those raised above.
On the government buying back rail. I was initially confused because I thought the purchase of the tracks had all been done – which indeed it has. Why the need to buy the business? Is Telecom next? Cullen would have a good excuse not to give any tax cuts after that shopping trip!
March 6th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
I’m pleased to see you haven’t followed fucktard Key down his appeasement approach. Lets face it the man is weak. It took Bill to come out with some real policy balls and show that if you rely on Key all you will get is dithering. I say put English back in charge. He calls a socialist a socialist scumbag. Key is only going to capitulate to the leftard control freaks and as Sun Tzu says you should not play by your enemy’s rules.
March 7th, 2008 at 12:05 am
Nothing can defend Key’s propensity to equiviquate. He will be be murdered in the debates unless he changes his ways.
It’s his worst and most prevalent trait, demonstrating as it does, the obvious difference between political savvy and middle-management experience.
Trying to hide it won’t make it go away.
Making him face it full on, might season him.
He sure as hey needs seasoning, both in the front and in the back office.
March 7th, 2008 at 12:28 am
Face it Davey he is a hollow man with zero vision for New Zealand. He has stumbled again and again and again on the issues and is becoming more of a slippery Eel by the day. Only a matter of time until New Zealanders find out what Key really stands for: Privatisation.
March 7th, 2008 at 2:04 am
According to Mr English:
So Toll isn’t a competent operator? It makes $7.6 billion a year and operates in 17 countries. I’ve no idea if they’re incompetent but those figures suggest otherwise.
Could it be that a country the size of NZ simply doesn’t offer the economies of scale needed for an operator to make a profit (even when linked into an international network, which presumably offers some economies)?
Could it be that Richard Prebble made a huge mistake in selling it off to Wisconsin Central (for a mere $320 million IIRC, along with a debt write-off of over $1 billion), who allowed it to run down? He started off the right way, halving staff numbers, forming an SOE and chasing other efficiencies. But perhaps believing that he couldn’t really rein in the unions, as soon as the thing lost its deathly pallor it was auctioned off for next to nothing. Then taxpayers were milked of more millions through subsidies and grants which were used to upgrade and maintain the assets of a private company.
With fuel costs rising an efficient electrified rail freight corridor assumes even greater importance to NZ. Perhaps… and I’m the first to admit that transport economics isn’t my strong point… the government needs to bite the bullet, take it back (driving a very hard bargain with Toll for taking a poorly performing aset off it’s hands), invest in upgrading the infrastructure and rolling stock, and look at intelligent alternatives.
That might be an SOE model; it might be leasing the entire operation; it might be something I couldn’t possibly conceive. But I doubt that it’s tying bits of string to the corpse of a rail network and trying to convince buyers it’s alive. “Weekend at Bill’s”, anyone?
March 7th, 2008 at 3:10 am
Bloody hell, it is amazing how leftwing legend is treated as fact.
NZ Rail was NOT sold by Richard Prebble OR Labour, it was sold in the first term of the Bolger government. The last debt write off was in 1990 under Labour, there was another one a couple of years earlier worth $350 million, and another one in 1982 worth around $100 million (all in the dollar values of the day of course which are far higher than today).
The taxpayers were not milked after privatisation, as the only subsidies were relatively fixed amounts for Auckland and Wellington urban rail services to continue (and be somewhat enhanced).
Frankly, given Toll can’t make a go of it under such high oil prices says a lot about how truly economically efficient rail is in NZ. Of course Toll could just be playing hardball against a Labour government that has proven to be anything but a tough negotiator – $81 million for the $20 million worth Auckland network. taking over the track and pouring hundreds of millions of taxpayers dollars into it in exchange for giving Toll a continued monopoly. Not enforcing track access charges to maintain the track (imagine trucking firms not having to pay all of their road user charges) is just the latest try on, because they know Labour wants rail. Now Toll wants to make a massive capital gain from selling it by threatening to shut it down.
The thing is Labour is scared that it will, which puts Toll in the bargaining position it has played for the past few years.
March 7th, 2008 at 5:13 am
“The wonder, then, is that he did not say this loudly and clearly on Tuesday. There were certainly grounds for attacking Labour. The Government has intervened late in the piece, effectively shifting the goalposts. It has all but admitted it has done so for populist reasons. Allowing foreign investment in our companies has never bothered it in the past – indeed, Labour used to welcome it.”
As a result of Labour’s Order in Council on investment, which was *not* limited to the AIA, Key was confronted with a profound change in the way NZ does business with overseas investors. Any port or airport, the railway system and set up, new transport infrastructure, new energy proposals of dams, windfarms, ethanol plants; processing facilities (and we are $20 billion behind in wood processing), our current exposure to foreign borrowings of several hundred billions in the private sector.. all have to some degree an element that could fall under the new ministerial veto based on “sensitive land”.. and we want Key to make an off the cuff pronouncement that could affect that?
Give me a break! This is very much the sort of thing I alluded to when I said that this election is going to be fought over scorched earth where Labour loses all sense of ethics and puts the country at economic risk in order to stay in power.
In this mad situation, someone has to be the adult, and that falls to Key in the absence of any sense of propriety from Labour.. Key has to fight the election with one eye on popularity and one on retaining economic stability and the confidence of the country’s institutions, overseas govts, and foreign lenders and investors.
Interest free student loans, billions of own goal Kyoto and sustainability liabilities, xenophobic investment strategies and who knows what more to come.. we are in a dangerous situation brought about by a desperate Govt, and we simply cannot afford Key to rush in with statements that could exacerbate the problems. No wonder Labour suddenly bought into the anti-smacking legislation, because if ever a group of politicians needed to be put across a knee and…
JC
March 7th, 2008 at 5:43 am
JC – I think you are right on the scorched earth approach. Dr Cullen was jubilant that the Crown Accounts had a 4.5 billion downturn, because he thinks it may make things politically more difficult for Bill English.
March 7th, 2008 at 6:23 am
“This is very much the sort of thing I alluded to when I said that this election is going to be fought over scorched earth where Labour loses all sense of ethics and puts the country at economic risk in order to stay in power.”
and
“I think you are right on the scorched earth approach. Dr Cullen was jubilant that the Crown Accounts had a 4.5 billion downturn, because he thinks it may make things politically more difficult for Bill English.”
I think you both righ DPF and JC, but I have to say that I am absolutely appalled that this government would not only lower New Zealand’s standing in the eyes of overseas investors by arbitrarily changing the law, but also put our economic future at risk, all in an effort to make an opposition politician look bad, and as a result, retain power. And then sit back and gloat about how well they’ve done.
Apalled and truly saddened that this is what my country has become: A plaything for a pack of clueless, venal, social misfits.
G
March 7th, 2008 at 7:20 am
I’m still not convinced that Cabinet’s decision on Monday, and Cullen’s subsequent announcement of the tightening of rules regarding “strategic assets” was anyhting more than a cyncial move to deflect attention away from what was shaping up as a difficult day in the House for Labour. The affairs at the Hawke’s Bay DHB, notably the unprecedented decision to sack the entire DHB, and the revelations on Hausmann’s undoubted conflict of interest has been studiously ignored by the broadcast media – and who will be the beneficiaries of that – the government, and not health consumers in the Hawkes Bay, the people who Cunliffe professes to care for.
March 7th, 2008 at 7:36 am
I really hope National fights the election on it true agenda – a return to the privatisations of the 1990’s. The public loathes that, and slippery John knows it – which is why he continually talks out of both sides of his mouth. Hmmmmm. David Farrar continues to reveal his true politics, which are a combination of the Rovian wedge politics of hate and BRT neo-liberalism as far as I can see, and his 100 odd fanatical kiwiblog right nutjobs wait in desperate hope for the second coming of Ayn Rand, the rest of the real world in NZ is well over the new right agenda – yesterdays failed theories. So bring it on Farrar – lets hear what the National party wants to privatise… Education vouchers? Airports? ACC?
[DPF: And that is 10 demerits for "politics of hate". Ironic actually considering Tom S is a self confessed hater]
March 7th, 2008 at 8:15 am
the economic meltdown that is just beginning..will be enough advanced come election time..
..will be such..
..that a $10 a week tax-cut will be well down the list of (most peoples’) priorities..
..and yes..that is ‘good news’ for labours’ re-election chances..
..and will thrust cullen more and more into the spotlight..
..and his ‘persona’ of economic-tight-fisted-competency..
..will assume more and more value/gravitas..
..and all of this..is bad news for national..
..who are lookng so ‘last millenium’..
‘the privateers’..
(this perception of national will only grow..between now and election day..)
eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 7th, 2008 at 8:18 am
dpf..it is a fair call that you ‘foster’ ‘rovian wedge politics of hate’..
how can this not be..?
when you encourage/link/promote the likes of murray/whale-blubber..?
and the rest of the gibbering nutbars/’haters’..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
[DPF: You can call me a hate monger on your own blog. If people can not manage a basic level of civility to their host, they will get ejected]
March 7th, 2008 at 8:18 am
I am sure a large part of labour’s motivation was to snare Key, as well as remove an election year irritant. Possibly their biggest motivation was the recent polling results. All of these reasons are dishonest reasons for formulating policy and means it will have many unintended consequences down the track.
Key needs to sharpen up. There will be many more of these ambush manoevres during election year by our cynical and unprincipled government. When put in those situations he needs to avoid being defensive (explaining mode which looks weak) and get on the front foot. As Espiner says, there was much to attack Labour on over this issue.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:20 am
“Education vouchers? Airports? ACC?”
Oh yes please, and the sooner the better.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:32 am
basically..what is happening..
..is that we are seeing the end of an era of waste/profligacy..
(an ‘end’ that is being forced upon us..)
..and the first stirrings of a ‘new world’..
a ‘new world order’..(if you will..eh..?)..
..and you righties..
..’you know something is happening..but you don’t know what it is’..
do you..?…mr farrar..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 7th, 2008 at 8:39 am
the economic meltdown that is just beginning..will be enough advanced come election time..
..that a $10 a week tax-cut will be well down the list of (most peoples’) priorities..
I actually agree with you phil on those two…
..and yes..that is ‘good news’ for labours’ re-election chances..
bzzzzzt, YOU HAVE FAILED! The public will be justifiably pissed that Cullen has squandred what have arguably been the greatest period of growth this country has seen for a long time, a growth that could have been used to make more of the public self reliant, but instead Cullen decided to spend like a drunken sailor without any thought for the future – ask yourself what will policies like WFF and Interest Free Student Loans do for the deficit?
..and will thrust cullen more and more into the spotlight..
I know Im repeating myself, but yes in the spotlight as the man who has wasted the greatest opportunity the country has ever had to advance as a whole. He will be looked upon as an incompetant histort teacher, trying to be a finance minister.
..and all of this..is bad news for national..
..who are lookng so ‘last millenium’..
Considering National are the ones who saved this country from bankruptcy after Labour excesses of the 80’s – I think you are dead wrong.
the privateers’..
Vs the Pirates?
March 7th, 2008 at 8:40 am
If the looming recession turns as nasty as the early 1990s, or god forbid the 1930s, the government should be able to buy the rail operator for a song.
They may well need to- if we get 20% unemployment, public works schemes like rail and road building will be necessary to stop civil disorder and societal breakdown. Hopefully the Nats will have some interest in keeping people in work, although they sure didn’t in the 1990s.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Hey Philu, I know what’s happening, it’s called change. Get used to it.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Look philu try and be reasonable mate. Firstly, many of us cannot understand what you write and secondly I wouldn’t think it a good idea to abuse our host? No I ain’t got a brown tongue, however you do continually exhibit signs and symptoms consistent with a unhealthy grudge against “righties”.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:47 am
basically..what is happening..
..is that we are seeing the end of an era of waste/profligacy..
Wastage by Cullen? I agree, the sooner we get Labour out and National in the better the country will be.
(an ‘end’ that is being forced upon us..)
..and the first stirrings of a ‘new world’..
a ‘new world order’..(if you will..eh..?)..
Still fantasing about Communist rule Phil? Cause Communism just works sooo damn well, oh do you mean the ‘Third Way” – as in Communism by another name?
..and you righties..
..’you know something is happening..but you don’t know what it is’..
do you..?…mr farrar..?
Something is happening Phil, its called throwing Labour out on their ear for the next decade at least – National = >50% in the polls phil, or are your hands over your eyes?
March 7th, 2008 at 8:48 am
1)..i never called you a ‘hate-monger’..either here..or at whoar..
(please don’t put words into my mouth..)
2) my comment was one of surprise at what i deemed something of an ‘over-reaction’..by yourself..
..to what was/is a reasonably accurate description of the ethos/mores at kiwiblog..
that this description has hit such a ‘raw nerve’ with you..
..only emphasises how ‘on the money’ it was/is..
eh..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 7th, 2008 at 8:53 am
“when you encourage/link/promote the likes of murray/whale-blubber..?
and the rest of the gibbering nutbars/’haters’..?’
Short term memory loss philu is common amongst drug users.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:55 am
There are so many other issues that Key and the Nats could be hammering Labour on. Worrying about how New Zealand looks to overseas investors is important, as most here would recognise. However, this is an issue that will have no resonance with most of the population. A large portion of the voting public may have a concern about Auckland Airport being sold, but I doubt whether the economics of it really come into it.
Things that resonate is health, education and housing affordability – that affects 90% of the voting public on an almost daily level. The Nats need to stick to those areas, where labour have opened the door for them.
Too many NZer’s do not fully comprehend economics and the importance to our economy of overseas investment – an election year is not the time to try and educate them.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Philly – you seem to get some sort of perverse pleasure at watching our economy go into a tailspin, to teach those evil “righties” a lesson. Sorry, but Labour have been running the show for almost a decade now – its their mismanagement that is sending the economy down the toilet.
Cullen is the knucklehead who’s overtaxed the citizens and played the o/s stockmarket with the loot – dumped a bundle (ooops $4.5 billion gone…never mind, more where that came from…) and can only spend his time trying to score petty political points. The bogus “Doctor” should be managing the NZ economy, but he’s clearly not up to it.
March 7th, 2008 at 8:57 am
so..bevan..
in these upcoming ‘troubled times’..
(btw..i wonder when dpf will do his second story on it..?..eh..?..
..i don’t think he can ‘just ignore it’ for that much longer..do you..?..)
anyway..do you think that the nation will turn to ’slippery john’..?
(representitive of/profiteer from ..the world/financial system that got us in such shit in the first place..?
‘trust me..!..i’m a millionaire..!”)
..him..and the rest of the ‘gimlet-eyed’ privateers on nationals’ front bench..?
ha..!
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 7th, 2008 at 9:55 am
hmm..!..
long comment…has vanished..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 7th, 2008 at 9:57 am
philu Add karma Subtract karma –6 Says:
March 7th, 2008 at 8:32 am
“basically..what is happening..
..is that we are seeing the end of an era of waste/profligacy..
(an ‘end’ that is being forced upon us..)
..and the first stirrings of a ‘new world’..
a ‘new world order’..(if you will..eh..?)..”
AGREE, IF WHAT YOU MEAN IS THE END OF THE ERA OF WASTEFUL, PROFLIGATE BIG GOVERNMENT, AND A NEW WORLD ORDER OF FREEDOM AND INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY. But knowing you, I’m sure that’s not what you mean……
March 7th, 2008 at 9:58 am
d baigent said…
“..Hey Philu, I know what’s happening, it’s called change. Get used to it..”
yes..we both see change..
‘cept you see ‘the return of ayn rand’..
and i see the rise of communitarianism..
(and no..this isn’t the ‘missing’ comment..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
March 7th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Grant +8 Says:
March 7th, 2008 at 6:23 am
“This is very much the sort of thing I alluded to when I said that this election is going to be fought over scorched earth where Labour loses all sense of ethics and puts the country at economic risk in order to stay in power.”
And what “sense of ethics” would that be?
March 7th, 2008 at 10:04 am
When I was a teenager, visiting a family friend who was a “trains” nut, I casually picked up one of his many books on trains and railways and, thumbing through it, discovered that there was a short sub-chapter on New Zealand.
It told me something like this: in a country with as low population and as difficult terrain as New Zealand, it is a wonder if any Rail system is economically viable……..
But for the rail enthusiast, you will be able to see some of the world’s most powerful locomotives in action, pulling probably the shortest trains that locomotives of their type anywhere in the world are used for. (It struck me as rather similar to the situation at Wellington Airport at the time, where Boeing 747 “SP” airliners, designed for super long-haul stuff, were being used Trans-Tasman as they were the only thing that could get in and out of Wellington at the time. And of course, running at a substantial loss……)
March 7th, 2008 at 10:13 am
philu said ‘..and the first stirrings of a ‘new world’.. a ‘new world order’..(if you will..eh..?)..’
—
Philu, please listen. A brief lesson on history, for your benefit.
There have been a growing number of financial crises in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Among the key lessons of previous major financial crises are:
* Globalisation has increased the frequency and spread of financial crises, but not necessarily their severity
* Early intervention by central banks is more effective in limiting their spread than later moves
* It is difficult to tell at the time whether a financial crisis will have broader economic consequences
* Regulators often cannot keep up with the pace of financial innovation that may trigger a crisis.
A quick list of previous Financial Crisis:
THE DOT.COM CRASH, 2000
LONG-TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 1998
THE CRASH OF 1987
US SAVINGS AND LOAN SCANDAL, 1985
THE CRASH OF 1929
OVEREND & GUERNEY, 1866; BARINGS, 1890
Hat tip to this BBC article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6958091.stm – it’s worth a read.
There have been many crises in history philu, and we survived them all. Society survived WWII, it will survive the Credit Crunch, much to your disappointment and surprise of course.
You remind me of a 1980’s Pentecostal pastor preaching from the pulpit, was that your intention? You wish for the impending doom of globalization; secretly you invite the misery this might bring because then you think you could fashion the world in your own image. For your benefit I have included a brief definition of narcissism so you understand why people react so oddly to you.
‘Narcissistic personality disorder (NPD), is a personality disorder defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM IV-R), the diagnostic classification system used in the United States, as “a pervasive pattern of grandiosity, need for admiration, and a lack of empathy.’ (Wikipedia)
You’re the ‘Little Chicken’ of economic punditry. Your delusional keyboard spittle has provided all of us with much entertainment. Please, we all hope you continue as you do. You’re hilarious, but I don’t think your intention was to be funny?
March 7th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
..and will thrust cullen more and more into the spotlight..
Most things that get in my spotlight are pests or vermin … they get shot.
March 7th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
so..bevan..
in these upcoming ‘troubled times’..
Which Cullen has failed to prepare us for.
anyway..do you think that the nation will turn to ’slippery john’..?
You mean the man who has been extremely successful in the business arena? Who would you rather have running the country, a man who has made millions in private business, or a History Teacher?
March 7th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
“That is the concern. There’s only a few months to tighten things up”
I’d recommend a few daily sets of kegels. Works wonders
JK’s normaly pretty smooth, which the leftards interpret as slippery. I think perhaps he’s overestimated his smoothness and needs to step up the homework to back it all up. He’s still very new in politics, and he’s up against some very crusty and nasty a-holes with nothing to lose in the leadup to the election. I hope he can deal with it.
March 7th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
you mean the man who has been an incubus in/on the ‘global crap-game’..?
the one that is now ‘over’..?
those decades of ‘greed’..
that have got us into this sorry mess..?
that’s who you think people will ‘turn to’..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)